The Wiz Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 It's showtime.... NCSt is an A team ... The Bills are an A team. This game will be similar to the LSU game....who by the way is still an A team. First, let's look at the report card before we discuss the game .............................SLU..........................NCSt........................................................SLU.....................................NCSt .............................................OFF.....................................................................................................DEF............... PPG.........................A.............................A................................................................A-.....................................A+ FG%.........................A+ 9th ITN............A+ 13th ITN...............................................B-......................................C+ 3Pt%........................A+ 4th ITN.............A+ 5th ITN................................................D+......................................D+ FT%.........................B+.... ......................D-........................................................................................................ Reb.........................D+............................D-................................................................A+ 10th ITN......................B- OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP....Defense....PPG...FG%...3P%.. Down...Offense....PPG...FT%...Reb Top 100 ITN (In The Nation) Assts...Collins....11th....up Rebs...Goodwin....20th....up PPG.....Perkins......68th.....dn Stls......Goodwin.....65th....dn...Collins...65th...new 3P%...Hargrove...33th....dn....Jacobs...39th... up.....Perkins....83rd...up Blks...French....41st Double Double...Goodwin...3rd...up NCSt 3P%......Hellems....33rd...Allen...39th...Seabron...39th Blks...Bates...23rd Injury report....None Offense slipped a little ...Defense improved ...Overall.... team is slightly up. The offense has been sky high, so a little slippage is normal especially as we play better teams. Glad to see the D is picking up ...we will need that against the better competition. Our advantage in this game is rebounding (we need to dominate the boards) and FT shooting( hard to believe I am saying this after last year). This game maybe decided at the charity stripe. Another important factor will be 3pt shooting...while the grades show we are equal, I think we are the better shooting team, provided we play D. They can make the shots, if uncontested... we can make it either way. If we play 3P D , we have the edge. A side note , neither team has a very good grade in 3P D, but we did a nice job last game. And finally TOs....First the good news...On TOs we have a B....on opp TOs ...an A- .....The bad news.....they have an A- on TOs ...on opp TOs ..an A+ ...3rd ITN.....Protect the ball or we lose. WWN2D2W....Daniels is their main man...Hold him to 14 pts...On 3 pt shooting hold the team to five 3PM....Out rebound them by 8....Match them on TOs...which means we will have to hang around 10. Bottom line ...I think we are the better team....The numbers show we are equal but here is the difference.... The Pack's opponents look like this....D ...D...D-...They have not played anybody above D...meanwhile , we have an A and a B- under our belt....We have grades on stats that match up yet we have played some tougher teams. And thus, we have the reason for this game....Not only to help their SOS but as an ACC team they will be facing 3 A+ teams plus 3 A teams. You can't get ready for that by playing D teams. They are playing us because right now we are like a good ACC team.... Now we just have to play like one and beat them.... Road to the Poll...1 down ...2 to go. GoBills73, Zink, A10Ref and 1 other like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Too early to get a GDT going? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnkielBreakers Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, wgstl said: Too early to get a GDT going? Try to be a little more creative than just “Wolfpack.” Littlebill likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 12 minutes ago, The Wiz said: It's showtime.... NCSt is an A team ... The Bills are an A team. This game will be similar to the LSU game....who by the way is still an A team. First, let's look at the report card before we discuss the game .............................SLU..........................NCSt........................................................SLU.....................................NCSt .............................................OFF.....................................................................................................DEF............... PPG.........................A.............................A................................................................A-.....................................A+ FG%.........................A+ 9th ITN............A+ 13th ITN...............................................B-......................................C+ 3Pt%........................A+ 4th ITN.............A+ 5th ITN................................................D+......................................D+ FT%.........................B+.... ......................D-........................................................................................................ Reb.........................D+............................D-................................................................A+ 10th ITN......................B- OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP....Defense....PPG...FG%...3P%.. Down...Offense....PPG...FT%...Reb Top 100 ITN (In The Nation) Assts...Collins....11th....up Rebs...Goodwin....20th....up PPG.....Perkins......68th.....dn Stls......Goodwin.....65th....dn...Collins...65th...new 3P%...Hargrove...33th....dn....Jacobs...39th... up.....Perkins....83rd...up Blks...French....41st Double Double...Goodwin...3rd...up NCSt 3P%......Hellems....33rd...Allen...39th...Seabron...39th Blks...Bates...23rd Injury report....None Offense slipped a little ...Defense improved ...Overall.... team is slightly up. The offense has been sky high, so a little slippage is normal especially as we play better teams. Glad to see the D is picking up ...we will need that against the better competition. Our advantage in this game is rebounding (we need to dominate the boards) and FT shooting( hard to believe I am saying this after last year). This game maybe decided at the charity stripe. Another important factor will be 3pt shooting...while the grades show we are equal, I think we are the better shooting team, provided we play D. They can make the shots, if uncontested... we can make it either way. If we play 3P D , we have the edge. A side note , neither team has a very good grade in 3P D, but we did a nice job last game. And finally TOs....First the good news...On TOs we have a B....on opp TOs ...an A- .....The bad news.....they have an A- on TOs ...on opp TOs ..an A+ ...3rd ITN.....Protect the ball or we lose. WWN2D2W....Daniels is their main man...Hold him to 14 pts...On 3 pt shooting hold the team to five 3PM....Out rebound them by 8....Match them on TOs...which means we will have to hang around 10. Bottom line ...I think we are the better team....The numbers show we are equal but here is the difference.... The Pack's opponents look like this....D ...D...D-...They have not played anybody above D...meanwhile , we have an A and a B- under our belt....We have grades on stats that match up yet we have played some tougher teams. And thus, we have the reason for this game....Not only to help their SOS but as an ACC team they will be facing 3 A+ teams plus 3 A teams. You can't get ready for that by playing D teams. They are playing us because right now we are like a good ACC team.... Now we just have to play like one and beat them.... Road to the Poll...1 down ...2 to go. NC State may be great at forcing turnovers against weak opponents, but tomorrow they won't be facing a weak opponent. Their numbers will dip after the game against the Bills. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufanskip Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 26 minutes ago, The Wiz said: It's showtime.... NCSt is an A team ... The Bills are an A team. This game will be similar to the LSU game....who by the way is still an A team. First, let's look at the report card before we discuss the game .............................SLU..........................NCSt........................................................SLU.....................................NCSt .............................................OFF.....................................................................................................DEF............... PPG.........................A.............................A................................................................A-.....................................A+ FG%.........................A+ 9th ITN............A+ 13th ITN...............................................B-......................................C+ 3Pt%........................A+ 4th ITN.............A+ 5th ITN................................................D+......................................D+ FT%.........................B+.... ......................D-........................................................................................................ Reb.........................D+............................D-................................................................A+ 10th ITN......................B- OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP....Defense....PPG...FG%...3P%.. Down...Offense....PPG...FT%...Reb Top 100 ITN (In The Nation) Assts...Collins....11th....up Rebs...Goodwin....20th....up PPG.....Perkins......68th.....dn Stls......Goodwin.....65th....dn...Collins...65th...new 3P%...Hargrove...33th....dn....Jacobs...39th... up.....Perkins....83rd...up Blks...French....41st Double Double...Goodwin...3rd...up NCSt 3P%......Hellems....33rd...Allen...39th...Seabron...39th Blks...Bates...23rd Injury report....None Offense slipped a little ...Defense improved ...Overall.... team is slightly up. The offense has been sky high, so a little slippage is normal especially as we play better teams. Glad to see the D is picking up ...we will need that against the better competition. Our advantage in this game is rebounding (we need to dominate the boards) and FT shooting( hard to believe I am saying this after last year). This game maybe decided at the charity stripe. Another important factor will be 3pt shooting...while the grades show we are equal, I think we are the better shooting team, provided we play D. They can make the shots, if uncontested... we can make it either way. If we play 3P D , we have the edge. A side note , neither team has a very good grade in 3P D, but we did a nice job last game. And finally TOs....First the good news...On TOs we have a B....on opp TOs ...an A- .....The bad news.....they have an A- on TOs ...on opp TOs ..an A+ ...3rd ITN.....Protect the ball or we lose. WWN2D2W....Daniels is their main man...Hold him to 14 pts...On 3 pt shooting hold the team to five 3PM....Out rebound them by 8....Match them on TOs...which means we will have to hang around 10. Bottom line ...I think we are the better team....The numbers show we are equal but here is the difference.... The Pack's opponents look like this....D ...D...D-...They have not played anybody above D...meanwhile , we have an A and a B- under our belt....We have grades on stats that match up yet we have played some tougher teams. And thus, we have the reason for this game....Not only to help their SOS but as an ACC team they will be facing 3 A+ teams plus 3 A teams. You can't get ready for that by playing D teams. They are playing us because right now we are like a good ACC team.... Now we just have to play like one and beat them.... Road to the Poll...1 down ...2 to go. Curious as to how we would be a D+ in 3 pt defense. Teams are shooting 33.7% against us which would be about 150th as a team and are making 5.4 per game which would rank about 225th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willie Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, slufanskip said: Curious as to how we would be a D+ in 3 pt defense. Teams are shooting 33.7% against us which would be about 150th as a team and are making 5.4 per game which would rank about 225th. My eye test says we leave the 3 point line too often to help inside. The only way an Indiana State could play with us is if they hit a bunch of 3's. Most coaches philosophy is to defend out. My theory is you should force in. Run them off the line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 24 minutes ago, slufanskip said: Curious as to how we would be a D+ in 3 pt defense. Teams are shooting 33.7% against us which would be about 150th as a team and are making 5.4 per game which would rank about 225th. I am showing 33.7% too, but that comes out to rank of 203 which would make us a D+. And remember we are still missing 10 % of the teams (teams that have not played a game yet)...so that puts us a little closer to the bottom. As I noted in the original post, our 3 pt D was good the last game....if we continue at that pace our grade will continue to improve. We just need to hold the fort against the Wolf Pack this game. slufanskip likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Do we know which players will actually play against us tomorrow? Do we know if Daniels is one of them? What I know so far is that they are only bringing 9 players because of Covid issues. So, anyone knows who is coming to play with us? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I think the three point percentage for our opponents might be a little misleading. Our opponents have not been raining three pointers on us. The average number of 3 pointers made against us isn't bad and our defensive efficiency numbers aren't bad. We are taking chances defensively that result in the occasional wide open looks, but have far more often resulted in us stealing the ball or forcing another form of turnover. We rank 10th in steals per possession and 16th in turnovers forced per possession. The Wiz likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheeseman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 hour ago, The Wiz said: It's showtime.... NCSt is an A team ... The Bills are an A team. This game will be similar to the LSU game....who by the way is still an A team. First, let's look at the report card before we discuss the game .............................SLU..........................NCSt........................................................SLU.....................................NCSt .............................................OFF.....................................................................................................DEF............... PPG.........................A.............................A................................................................A-.....................................A+ FG%.........................A+ 9th ITN............A+ 13th ITN...............................................B-......................................C+ 3Pt%........................A+ 4th ITN.............A+ 5th ITN................................................D+......................................D+ FT%.........................B+.... ......................D-........................................................................................................ Reb.........................D+............................D-................................................................A+ 10th ITN......................B- OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP....Defense....PPG...FG%...3P%.. Down...Offense....PPG...FT%...Reb Top 100 ITN (In The Nation) Assts...Collins....11th....up Rebs...Goodwin....20th....up PPG.....Perkins......68th.....dn Stls......Goodwin.....65th....dn...Collins...65th...new 3P%...Hargrove...33th....dn....Jacobs...39th... up.....Perkins....83rd...up Blks...French....41st Double Double...Goodwin...3rd...up NCSt 3P%......Hellems....33rd...Allen...39th...Seabron...39th Blks...Bates...23rd Injury report....None Offense slipped a little ...Defense improved ...Overall.... team is slightly up. The offense has been sky high, so a little slippage is normal especially as we play better teams. Glad to see the D is picking up ...we will need that against the better competition. Our advantage in this game is rebounding (we need to dominate the boards) and FT shooting( hard to believe I am saying this after last year). This game maybe decided at the charity stripe. Another important factor will be 3pt shooting...while the grades show we are equal, I think we are the better shooting team, provided we play D. They can make the shots, if uncontested... we can make it either way. If we play 3P D , we have the edge. A side note , neither team has a very good grade in 3P D, but we did a nice job last game. And finally TOs....First the good news...On TOs we have a B....on opp TOs ...an A- .....The bad news.....they have an A- on TOs ...on opp TOs ..an A+ ...3rd ITN.....Protect the ball or we lose. WWN2D2W....Daniels is their main man...Hold him to 14 pts...On 3 pt shooting hold the team to five 3PM....Out rebound them by 8....Match them on TOs...which means we will have to hang around 10. Bottom line ...I think we are the better team....The numbers show we are equal but here is the difference.... The Pack's opponents look like this....D ...D...D-...They have not played anybody above D...meanwhile , we have an A and a B- under our belt....We have grades on stats that match up yet we have played some tougher teams. And thus, we have the reason for this game....Not only to help their SOS but as an ACC team they will be facing 3 A+ teams plus 3 A teams. You can't get ready for that by playing D teams. They are playing us because right now we are like a good ACC team.... Now we just have to play like one and beat them.... Road to the Poll...1 down ...2 to go. How do you factor in playing at home with no crowds - do you treat it as a neutral site or some kind of hybrid situation? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Littlebill Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 hour ago, wgstl said: Too early to get a GDT going? is it game day? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufanskip Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 28 minutes ago, The Wiz said: I am showing 33.7% too, but that comes out to rank of 203 which would make us a D+. And remember we are still missing 10 % of the teams (teams that have not played a game yet)...so that puts us a little closer to the bottom. As I noted in the original post, our 3 pt D was good the last game....if we continue at that pace our grade will continue to improve. We just need to hold the fort against the Wolf Pack this game. You're right at 210th but you can take into account some teams haven't played but also that many teams have just played 1 or 2 games. Just my opinion but a more accurate look at how we are doing would be to see where we would rank using last years stats. For example we as a team hit 5.4 per game last year ranking us 323rd. We are allowing 5.4 per game this year. Now admittedly we've only had 95 attempts against us per game which would rank us near the top 50 in least attempts per game. In the end we allow very few attempts and very few made so just in my opinion this seems a time when actual stats don't actually portray an accurate picture. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufanskip Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 hour ago, willie said: My eye test says we leave the 3 point line too often to help inside. The only way an Indiana State could play with us is if they hit a bunch of 3's. Most coaches philosophy is to defend out. My theory is you should force in. Run them off the line. but the number of 3 pointers made and taken against us is pretty low when assessed against a full season of data (last years) The wide variation in number of games played this year imo render many stats so far this year as questionable. I'd bet in most cases the stats this year will come close to the same as they did last year. For example comparing 3 pointers attempted and 3 pointers made in 2019/20 and 2018/19 ... 5.4 made and 19 attempts allowed would have us ranked in the same general ballpark. Very good in both categories. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, cheeseman said: How do you factor in playing at home with no crowds - do you treat it as a neutral site or some kind of hybrid situation? I am using my regular homefield advantage. While we as fans like to believe we are the reason our team wins at home ...the truth of the matter is, there are many factors that go into home court advantage. ...Travel- How far is the destination for the visitors and how long to get there...What kind of venues do you play in and how do those venues affect the sight lines. The number 1 home field advantage is Univ of Denver...Why? Because there is no air to breathe...visitors are huffing and puffing enough to give the Pioneers a 7 pt advantage. As to specifically no crowds....the feeling among some handicappers ( I fall into this category) is the stress of covid (everything is harder to do for everybody) offsets the loss of crowd. In other words, whatever the home team loses in crowd support, the visiting team loses in covid travel....whether it is having to take less players, lock down and qurantine where ever you go, longer than normal travel times...etc. Again this is being tested now...and if it is not an exact offset it is close. And there are those who just use some fraction of home field advantage. My system adjusts as it goes anyway so as time goes on the factor of no crowd will change if necessary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Interesting. I think our guys have the gumption to overcome that more than most. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 20 minutes ago, slufanskip said: You're right at 210th but you can take into account some teams haven't played but also that many teams have just played 1 or 2 games. Just my opinion but a more accurate look at how we are doing would be to see where we would rank using last years stats. For example we as a team hit 5.4 per game last year ranking us 323rd. We are allowing 5.4 per game this year. Now admittedly we've only had 95 attempts against us per game which would rank us near the top 50 in least attempts per game. In the end we allow very few attempts and very few made so just in my opinion this seems a time when actual stats don't actually portray an accurate picture. This is why I always mention the 8 games to get a full set of data. No question, it is a small sample size not only for 3P shots but on all data....In 3 more games we will have a truer picture. The grades at this time are more for picking up trends....Are we an A team? Maybe....We will have a better answer in 3 games. It is like checking your grades after the 1st month of class and you see you have an A so far . Does that mean you are an A student? ...maybe...you are off to a good start...but you will have a much better idea after a few more weeks. I could look at last year's data...I do so for historical info ...In another thread , I mention what FT % grades looked like over the years. But I think it is important to show current data and grade it on the curve... again so everyone can see the current trends. Besides, the old 3P data only goes back a year because of the new 3P distance. In another 3 games most of the anomalies will be pretty much gone and give an accurate picture of who we are. This year is especially tough to gather data because of covid. What happens in a couple of weeks if the Bills have 9 games under their belt and our opponent has played only 2 games. I know what kind of team the Bills are but the opponent is a question mark. I will have to dig out the preseason predictive model well into January which I plan to do. It is possible some teams may not reach the 8 game mark this season.....Remember teams need 13 games to qualify for post season As the Chinese proverb goes...may you live in interesting times. slufanskip likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
someoneelse Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 34 minutes ago, The Wiz said: As to specifically no crowds....the feeling among some handicappers ( I fall into this category) is the stress of covid (everything is harder to do for everybody) offsets the loss of crowd. In other words, whatever the home team loses in crowd support, the visiting team loses in covid travel....whether it is having to take less players, lock down and qurantine where ever you go, longer than normal travel times...etc. Again this is being tested now...and if it is not an exact offset it is close. And there are those who just use some fraction of home field advantage. According to the NC State board, they're only bringing nine players, and which nine is not known by the posters on the board. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheeseman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 40 minutes ago, The Wiz said: I am using my regular homefield advantage. While we as fans like to believe we are the reason our team wins at home ...the truth of the matter is, there are many factors that go into home court advantage. ...Travel- How far is the destination for the visitors and how long to get there...What kind of venues do you play in and how do those venues affect the sight lines. The number 1 home field advantage is Univ of Denver...Why? Because there is no air to breathe...visitors are huffing and puffing enough to give the Pioneers a 7 pt advantage. As to specifically no crowds....the feeling among some handicappers ( I fall into this category) is the stress of covid (everything is harder to do for everybody) offsets the loss of crowd. In other words, whatever the home team loses in crowd support, the visiting team loses in covid travel....whether it is having to take less players, lock down and qurantine where ever you go, longer than normal travel times...etc. Again this is being tested now...and if it is not an exact offset it is close. And there are those who just use some fraction of home field advantage. My system adjusts as it goes anyway so as time goes on the factor of no crowd will change if necessary. Thanks for the explanation Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, someoneelse said: According to the NC State board, they're only bringing nine players, and which nine is not known by the posters on the board. That is exactly what I said a few hours ago. We do not know if they are bringing their top players, or a mix of scholarship players, or whoever is available scholarship player or walk on. The models work only when the team is whole and ready to play minus the occasional absence due to injury that keeps someone from playing. This is probably not the case for this game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scoop Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 They have 9 players that play double digit minutes. I’m gonna go way out on a limb and bet that they are the 9 that they bring. TheDude, dlarry, Billiken Rich and 1 other like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 34 minutes ago, Scoop said: They have 9 players that play double digit minutes. I’m gonna go way out on a limb and bet that they are the 9 that they bring. -how wrong you are, they are taking a page from the Vandy playbook and bringing 9 members from their Rifle team 'cause they can really shoot, my gosh why would they bring their best players? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 NC State looks loaded, has 2 big men, 6'10" and 6'11". This will be a stern test, but it is good the Billikens are playing this game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said: NC State looks loaded, has 2 big men, 6'10" and 6'11". This will be a stern test, but it is good the Billikens are playing this game. The 6'11" kid is Yuri's cousin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsBeliever!!! Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Wonder how not playing a game in 2 weeks will impact NC State. Maybe we can take advantage if they come out a bit rusty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Pelican Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, brianstl said: The 6'11" kid is Yuri's cousin. Yuri didn't get the tall gene? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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