The Bills over Ark-PB by 31

[brianstl]

The women’s team is playing Bradley 

[Old guy]

My bad then, sorry. I hope we could get to play  them, it would be interesting to say the least.

The change in the ranking for SLU from 41 to 28 by Team Rankings is correct as of this morning.

This is the Team Raknkings report for SLU as of today, please note that all of these projections are subject to change overnight.

Saint Louis Basketball Predictions Update Dec 6, 2020 • After beating Ark Pine Bl 107-54 yesterday, Saint Louis is now projected to finish the regular season 21-4 (13-4 Atlantic 10). • The odds that the Billikens make the NCAA tournament are up to 57%, an increase of 12% since yesterday. • We currently rank Saint Louis as the #28 team in the country, and the #1 team in the Atlantic 10. • Next game: Tue, Dec 8 vs. #266 Central Ark. Our power ratings give the Billikens a 97% chance to win. Bracketology Projections Make NCAA Tournament Get Automatic NCAA Bid Projected Seed (if Selected) 57% 30% 7   • If Saint Louis fails to get an NCAA tournament automatic bid (by winning the Atlantic 10 tournament) they'll have about a one in three chance of getting an at-large bid. • As for an automatic bid ... Saint Louis has a 30% chance to win the conference tournament. They're more likely than not to lose, but they do have a reasonable shot at winning. • If the Billikens can get to 24 total wins (including conference tournament wins), their odds to make the NCAA tournament increase to 87%. • We project the Billikens with a 17% chance to make the Sweet Sixteen and a 4% chance to reach the Final Four. • Saint Louis has a 1% chance to win the NCAA Tournament. That may not sound like much, but few teams even have this good of a chance. More Saint Louis Bracketology | Bracketology For All Teams Regular Season Record Projection Current Record Projection For Remaining Games Projected Final Record 3-0 (0-0 Atlantic 10) 18-4 (13-4 Atlantic 10) 21-4 (13-4 Atlantic 10)   • The more precise final record expectation for Saint Louis is 20.6 wins and 4.4 losses, slightly worse than the rounded projection above. • Based on our projections, the Billikens will most likely finish the regular season with a record between 23-2 and 20-5. • Saint Louis has a 2% chance to win all 22 of their remaining scheduled games. More Saint Louis Projections | Projections For All Atlantic 10 Teams Atlantic 10 Tournament Projections Get Atlantic 10 #1 Seed Projected Seed Win Atlantic 10 Tournament 36% 1 30%   • The odds for Saint Louis to earn the #1 seed in the Atlantic 10 tournament are up 11% since yesterday. • The chance of Saint Louis winning the Atlantic 10 tournament has increased by 8% since yesterday. Full Atlantic 10 Tournament Projections Remaining Games & Win Odds Dec 8 vs. #266 Central Ark 97.0% Preview   Dec 12 vs. #312 Evansville 98.4% Preview   Dec 15 vs. #116 Indiana St 83.5% Preview   Dec 20 @ #51 Minnesota 56.0% Preview   Dec 23 vs. #241 UMKC 96.2% Preview   Dec 30 vs. #89 Duquesne 78.5% Preview   Jan 2 vs. #138 U Mass 87.6% Preview   Jan 6 @ #209 La Salle 91.5% Preview   Jan 9 @ #198 St Josephs 90.0% Preview   Jan 15 vs. #80 Davidson 76.0% Preview   Jan 20 @ #138 U Mass 81.7% Preview   Jan 23 vs. #81 St Bonavent 75.8% Preview   Jan 26 vs. #66 Dayton 72.0% Preview   Jan 29 @ #44 Richmond 52.4% Preview   Feb 6 @ #207 Geo Wshgtn 91.5% Preview   Feb 10 vs. #56 Rhode Island 68.6% Preview   Feb 13 @ #236 Fordham 93.0% Preview   Feb 16 vs. #209 La Salle 94.9% Preview   Feb 19 @ #66 Dayton 62.8% Preview   Feb 23 @ #62 VCU 62.2% Preview   Feb 26 vs. #44 Richmond 62.4% Preview   Mar 2 vs. #152 Geo Mason 90.5% Preview         You are receiving this email because you signed up for this newsletter at teamrankings.com. Our mailing address is: Team Rankings, LLC 111 S Highland Avenue #458 Memphis, TN 38111 Unsubscribe from this newsletter

[bauman]

Thanks for providing this information, OG.  I find it interesting that our WIN ODDS are higher than 50% on every game, yet they project us to lose 4 A 10 games.  I don't pretend to understand all their math ratings but, in general, it seems to be very positive. The only A 10 game where we have less than a 62% WIN ODDS number is @ Richmond yet even with 62% plus Win Odds, they somehow have us losing 3 more Conference games in addition to @ Richmond.

[Old guy]

Bauman, long term predictions and probabilities contain a significant level of crystal ball gazing. Please understand this fact. It is early in the seasonm, the numbers will change after every game.

[The Wiz]

21 minutes ago, bauman said:

Thanks for providing this information, OG.  I find it interesting that our WIN ODDS are higher than 50% on every game, yet they project us to lose 4 A 10 games.  I don't pretend to understand all their math ratings but, in general, it seems to be very positive. The only A 10 game where we have less than a 62% WIN ODDS number is @ Richmond yet even with 62% plus Win Odds, they somehow have us losing 3 more Conference games in addition to @ Richmond.

I certainly don't want to speak for TR but I am sure what they are doing is projecting the individual probability into a cumulative projection. In simpler terms....suppose you have 2 games and you have a 60 % chance of winning the first game and a 70% chance of winning the 2nd game....what are your chances of winning both....it is 42% ...On the surface it would seem like no worse than 60%  but taken cumulatively the chances of winning both games is 60% x 70% = 42%.   Hope that helps.

[rgbilliken]

41 minutes ago, bauman said:

Thanks for providing this information, OG.  I find it interesting that our WIN ODDS are higher than 50% on every game, yet they project us to lose 4 A 10 games.  I don't pretend to understand all their math ratings but, in general, it seems to be very positive. The only A 10 game where we have less than a 62% WIN ODDS number is @ Richmond yet even with 62% plus Win Odds, they somehow have us losing 3 more Conference games in addition to @ Richmond.

Think of it this way: if you play ten games and you have a 60% chance to win each of them, the most likely outcome is not that you’ll win 100% of them, even though you’re favored to win in all of them. You’ll probably win most of them and lose a few. 
 

edit: posted this one minute later than @The Wiz and didn’t see his better, more detailed post lol 

[bauman]

Thanks to you and the Wiz.  I see where you are going with your explanations.  I still like being above 50% on every individual game.  I'm not sure that we have ever been given odds like that for every game in a season.

[billiken_roy]

1 hour ago, Old guy said:

Hi Wiz, yes AKPB was an F- team. Yes, we did have an extraordinary night playing every person in the team. Of course we could have gone much higher if we had kept our main players in action, but really what for.

I had mentioned in a prior post the fact that the rankings  kept by various systems are not the same. I also mentioned that if we won the game by less than the expected spread, we might be hurt in the rankings, simply because the rankings are not based solely on statistics, there is a lot that is not numbers crunching in keeping a ranking system. Here is the proof:

1. Before the game Team rankings had us at 41. They expected us to win by a spread of 33 points.

2. We won by 54 points and in the process played everyone in the roster as you detailed

3. This morning, team rankings has SLU at 28 which is quite a jump.

4. We are playing Bradley today at 2:00 P at Chaifetz, this is very nice. Bradley is 94 as per team rankings and has a record this season of 3-2 (the losses were against Xavier 50-51, currently 49 at team rankings; and S. Dakota St 84-88, currently 70 at team rankings). Bradley may well be underrated by team rankings. This may be an exciting game today.

We are clearly going places this year. I think the only barrier I can see possibly messing this up for us is the damn virus which is totally unpredictable. However it may work to our benefit if we can get additional games against decent opponents, and win them.

Now, and this may be something of a seat of the  pants guess that I  am asking you to provide, do you have any thoughts about this SLU vs Bradley game today?

old guy the game vs bradley today is a lady billiken game.   just thought you would want to know.  

[Old guy]

OK Bauman, consider this. Before the AKBP game TR had us at 41, after the game we went up to 28. We were expected to beat them by a Vegas spread of 33. How did we get jumped up to 28 after beating this not very good team by 53 pts? I am certain it was not by going over the Vegas spread by 20 pts. Hell, if we had left our top scorers in, we would probably have beaten them by over 100 pts. But that is not what we did. We went to the bench and everybody played, and almost everybody scored. We SHOWED them that we have a huge depth in our bench and that we were not interested in raking points or beating records. We are interested in developing our bench more than breaking records. This win, if looked at from this point of view, is more impressive than us beating a not very good team. So instead of going up by a few rankings, they jumped us to 28. A lot of this is not mathematical, statistical, or probabilistic calculation, it is a determination that this was a special way BECAUSE OF THE WAY FORD PLAYED IT. Ford even sat down in a chair for a lot longer than he normally does. Think of what this means to a professional organization that provides betting advise for pay. They have, and do go beyond probability and stats. Can they be wrong, surely they can, but so can anyone else.

What I am saying about the ranking jump after the last game, applies to some degree to the way they calculate their predictions and probabilities. There is a non mathematical factor added to all of this at some step of the way. Hope this is clearer to you now. The numbers WILL CHANGE as the season plays out.

[Old guy]

9 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

old guy the game vs bradley today is a lady billiken game.   just thought you would want to know.  

Thank you Roy, I already admitted my error after brianstl pointed it out. Mea culpa, I jumped the gun.

[billiken_roy]

while i would have loved for our starters to all get 30+ minutes last night.   I recognize that we have far too much quality on the bench that deserves to be rewarded with time as well.   plus we all know between injuries and fouls that bench will be needed.   get them ready.   besides, who knows where the next perkins may come from?

[almaman]

We may of had 15 players play in same game before but never 15 where 10 or more would start on regular Bills teams.