Around the A10 20-21 season

[kshoe]

27 minutes ago, MichaelC said:

GW getting blasted by UMBC. Down 57-34 after UMBC started the second half on a 14-2 run. 

Gotta admit I've gotten kind of annoyed listening to all the media pundits talk about how good the A-10 is this year. It's positive news, so I should be good with it, but its patently false. There are a few good teams at the top but the bottom appears to be as awful as it's ever been.

[MichaelC]

26 minutes ago, kshoe said:

Gotta admit I've gotten kind of annoyed listening to all the media pundits talk about how good the A-10 is this year. It's positive news, so I should be good with it, but its patently false. There are a few good teams at the top but the bottom appears to be as awful as it's ever been.

Yeah, not good at all. GW made a spirited comeback but still lost. They have now dropped games to teams from the Patriot League, MEAC and American East. 

[3star_recruit]

2 minutes ago, MichaelC said:

Yeah, not good at all. GW made a spirited comeback but still lost. They have now dropped games to teams from the Patriot League, MEAC and American East. 

The top 2 teams in the A10 are very good,  Rhode Island and presumably St. Bonaventure are good enough to battle for an at-large, the next 4 after that are good enough to battle for a couple of NIT spots or squeeze out an extra NCAA bid by winning the conference tournament.  That's potentially 4 bids.  By the only measure that really matters at the national level, that's a strong league.

[RUBillsFan]

23 minutes ago, kshoe said:

Gotta admit I've gotten kind of annoyed listening to all the media pundits talk about how good the A-10 is this year. It's positive news, so I should be good with it, but its patently false. There are a few good teams at the top but the bottom appears to be as awful as it's ever been.

A10 overall is better than it has been in a few years:

KenPom efficiency margin by year for the A10

2021:  +7.35

2020: +5.01

2019: +0.56

2018: +1.28

2017: +3.95

2016:+5.48

2015: +5.61

2014: +9.29

The bottom of the league is actually better as well, but still bad.  GW has A10's lowest current KenPom rank at 216 (UMBC is 209, so they were projected to beat GW) which would be the highest ranking for an A10 bottom feeder since 2014.

[Cowboy]

46 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said:

A10 overall is better than it has been in a few years:

KenPom efficiency margin by year for the A10

2021:  +7.35

2020: +5.01

2019: +0.56

2018: +1.28

2017: +3.95

2016:+5.48

2015: +5.61

2014: +9.29

The bottom of the league is actually better as well, but still bad.  GW has A10's lowest current KenPom rank at 216 (UMBC is 209, so they were projected to beat GW) which would be the highest ranking for an A10 bottom feeder since 2014.

-too early for this to mean a lot, imo, as KenPom still has a lot of predictive data flowing through his model so the UK win (UK is Kentucky, btw) by Rich is overvalued at this point, hopefully not on SS like our win over LSU

[NH]

1 hour ago, 3star_recruit said:

The top 2 teams in the A10 are very good,  Rhode Island and presumably St. Bonaventure are good enough to battle for an at-large, the next 4 after that are good enough to battle for a couple of NIT spots or squeeze out an extra NCAA bid by winning the conference tournament.  That's potentially 4 bids.  By the only measure that really matters at the national level, that's a strong league.

I believe Dayton could still be good and VCU has a neutral site win over Memphis. I think both of those teams will be good. 

That said, I have also been frustrated with the inability of certain of our conference mates to bring home winnable non-conference games. 

[kshoe]

4 hours ago, 3star_recruit said:

The top 2 teams in the A10 are very good,  Rhode Island and presumably St. Bonaventure are good enough to battle for an at-large, the next 4 after that are good enough to battle for a couple of NIT spots or squeeze out an extra NCAA bid by winning the conference tournament.  That's potentially 4 bids.  By the only measure that really matters at the national level, that's a strong league.

We will get 3 teams. Basically the same as we always do. I’d be very surprised with 4.

All these crap teams at the bottom will end up beating the Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure, Dayton and VCUs of the world a few times knocking them out of legit contention. Even Richmond will lose a couple stupid games to these teams.

This was supposed to be the year the A-10 made a statement. Doesn’t seem likely at this point to me.

[NH]

30 minutes ago, kshoe said:

We will get 3 teams. Basically the same as we always do. I’d be very surprised with 4.

All these crap teams at the bottom will end up beating the Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure, Dayton and VCUs of the world a few times knocking them out of legit contention. Even Richmond will lose a couple stupid games to these teams.

This was supposed to be the year the A-10 made a statement. Doesn’t seem likely at this point to me.

Agreed that the national pundits are overstating the league’s strength, but it’s still a stronger league than it has been the past couple of years. If this were the 2018-2019 A-10, our at-large hopes would be tenuous

[BJK]

When the league has two top 25 teams that aren’t Dayton or VCU the national pundits are gunna notice and talk... that simple. They don’t analyze the depth like we do. 

[3star_recruit]

8 hours ago, kshoe said:

We will get 3 teams. Basically the same as we always do. I’d be very surprised with 4.

All these crap teams at the bottom will end up beating the Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure, Dayton and VCUs of the world a few times knocking them out of legit contention. Even Richmond will lose a couple stupid games to these teams.

This was supposed to be the year the A-10 made a statement. Doesn’t seem likely at this point to me.

A lot depends on whether Rhody can pull the upset over Wisconsin on Wed.  This is not last year's Rhody team where it's either Fatts or bust.  The transfers can play and the freshman Leggett is one of the best frosh in the conference.  

[kshoe]

2 hours ago, 3star_recruit said:

A lot depends on whether Rhody can pull the upset over Wisconsin on Wed.  This is not last year's Rhody team where it's either Fatts or bust.  The transfers can play and the freshman Leggett is one of the best frosh in the conference.  

KenPom gives RI a 17% chance of winning at Wisconsin. Hopefully we roll the dice looking for a 6 and it hits. Such is where the A-10 is these days...

[Taj79]

As noted, watched Richmond/Wofford.  Richmond escaped and as Gilyard noted they have to come with their A-game every night now that they are ranked.  Early on, I thought it was UAPB II.  Richmond jumped out to an 11 - 0 lead and Wofford looked outclassed.  But give Wofford credit, they battled back and actually had a lead late.  Gilyard hit a three with 19 seconds to go to give the Spider a four-point lead and Wofford missed a three but got the offensive rebound only to have Gilyard steal it.  A Gilyard free throw made the final margin.

ESPN+ hadthe Richmond feed so I got to listen to the Richmond team.  Greg Beckwith is again one of the worst color guys in the A10.  And they are always all in on Richmond and their chances.  But Richmond again hasn't shown me much in the way of surprises.  I do think Tyler Burton has a nice future at Richmond given he has to fill Sherrod's shoes this year.  It will accelerate the learning process for him.  So far, Blake Francis has not found his stride but he keeps firing.  One-of-five from three yesterday, raising his 3 to 33%.  Gilyard isn't any better, currwently shooting 24% but it's early.  But te starters are balanced as only Francis didn't hit double digits (8).

The bench is weak but can be sneaky.  Andre Gustavson remains the sixth man and is nothing but a placeholder.  But he knows the backdoor cuts and always takes them, adding 8 to last night's game.  Sal Koureissi had "his best game ever" according to the announcers with 5 and they added that "the refs finally stopped picking on him."  No ---- he's an unrefined sophomore and hasn't caught up to the college game.  Matt Grace is nothing but a quick blow for Golden every half.  The bench remains extremely thin and I'd dared them to beat me.  Still waiting on the Connor Crabtree appearance to happen.  Just another player with D1 experience will improve Richmond IMHO.  Richmond host Northern Iowa on ESPN+ on Wednesday at 6/5 central.  Should be interesting.  UNI is 1 and 3 and only beat the St. Ambrose Fighting Bees.  Wouldn't you want to be a 'Fighting Bee?'

[Taj79]

La Salle hosts Lincoln, Pa, today at 4/3 central.  La Salle will get off the schneid here for sure.  Dayton hosts Northern Kentucky at 7/6.  We've got the Central Arkansas guys at 8/7.  All games on ESPN+.  

[The Wiz]

3 hours ago, 3star_recruit said:

A lot depends on whether Rhody can pull the upset over Wisconsin on Wed.  This is not last year's Rhody team where it's either Fatts or bust.  The transfers can play and the freshman Leggett is one of the best frosh in the conference.  

Wisc (A+ ) over RI (B+ ) by 9

[wgstl]

26 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

 RI (B+ ) by 9

Wiz, what would you grade the top 6 or 7 A10 teams currently? or compared to the top 6 or 7 last year?

[Pistol]

11 hours ago, NH said:

Agreed that the national pundits are overstating the league’s strength, but it’s still a stronger league than it has been the past couple of years. If this were the 2018-2019 A-10, our at-large hopes would be tenuous

I'm a little baffled by everyone saying the league is strong this year.

Richmond and SLU are the only unbeatens, at 3-0 each. Each team has one signature win, Richmond over Kentucky and SLU over LSU.

GMU, Duquesne, and Dayton have one loss each - to Belmont, Little Rock, and SMU, respectively. None of them have impressive wins yet.

Rhody and VCU are 3-2 each. Collectively, their records include good wins over Memphis, Seton Hall, South Florida, San Francisco, and Utah State and losses to Penn State, Boston College, Arizona State, and West Virginia. ASU and WVU are ranked but BC and PSU are the kind of power conference teams the A10 needs to beat for respectability.

GW has three losses to Navy, Hampton, and UMBC and the sole win was over Coppin State. Woof.

St. Joe's and La Salle are winless. St. Joe's should be 0-2 based on a tough schedule, but now misses a bunch of tough games due to positive tests. La Salle has losses to Army and St. Peter's in addition to a game they were expected to lose to St. John's. Woof.

Fordham, Bonaventure, and UMass haven't played yet.

To me, this early season looks very much in line with other years. We have a couple teams at the top with good wins and no losses, a few teams with mixed results, and a clear bottom half already forming with no shortage of bad losses.

[JettFlight5]

The A-10 is going to end up hurting the Bills this year, but it's what we have. It is somewhat worrisome seeing the non-conference results that the Bills may have to run the table to get a decent seed (assuming we have a standard 68-team tournament).

[kshoe]

3 minutes ago, Pistol said:

I'm a little baffled by everyone saying the league is strong this year.

Richmond and SLU are the only unbeatens, at 3-0 each. Each team has one signature win, Richmond over Kentucky and SLU over LSU.

GMU, Duquesne, and Dayton have one loss each - to Belmont, Little Rock, and SMU, respectively. None of them have impressive wins yet.

Rhody and VCU are 3-2 each. Collectively, their records include good wins over Memphis, Seton Hall, South Florida, San Francisco, and Utah State and losses to Penn State, Boston College, Arizona State, and West Virginia. ASU and WVU are ranked but BC and PSU are the kind of power conference teams the A10 needs to beat for respectability.

GW has three losses to Navy, Hampton, and UMBC and the sole win was over Coppin State. Woof.

St. Joe's and La Salle are winless. St. Joe's should be 0-2 based on a tough schedule, but now misses a bunch of tough games due to positive tests. La Salle has losses to Army and St. Peter's in addition to a game they were expected to lose to St. John's. Woof.

Fordham, Bonaventure, and UMass haven't played yet.

To me, this early season looks very much in line with other years. We have a couple teams at the top with good wins and no losses, a few teams with mixed results, and a clear bottom half already forming with no shortage of bad losses.

Exactly. If the A-10 is "strong" this year its because SLU is good (something I already knew) and because Richmond beat Kentucky. All the other results have been mediocre at best.

Personally, when I talk about the A-10 as it relates to SLU I'm talking about the other 13 teams. The result YTD from the other 13 leave a lot to be desired... 

[RUBillsFan]

59 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

As noted, watched Richmond/Wofford.  Richmond escaped and as Gilyard noted they have to come with their A-game every night now that they are ranked.  Early on, I thought it was UAPB II.  Richmond jumped out to an 11 - 0 lead and Wofford looked outclassed.  But give Wofford credit, they battled back and actually had a lead late.  Gilyard hit a three with 19 seconds to go to give the Spider a four-point lead and Wofford missed a three but got the offensive rebound only to have Gilyard steal it.  A Gilyard free throw made the final margin.

ESPN+ hadthe Richmond feed so I got to listen to the Richmond team.  Greg Beckwith is again one of the worst color guys in the A10.  And they are always all in on Richmond and their chances.  But Richmond again hasn't shown me much in the way of surprises.  I do think Tyler Burton has a nice future at Richmond given he has to fill Sherrod's shoes this year.  It will accelerate the learning process for him.  So far, Blake Francis has not found his stride but he keeps firing.  One-of-five from three yesterday, raising his 3 to 33%.  Gilyard isn't any better, currwently shooting 24% but it's early.  But te starters are balanced as only Francis didn't hit double digits (8).

The bench is weak but can be sneaky.  Andre Gustavson remains the sixth man and is nothing but a placeholder.  But he knows the backdoor cuts and always takes them, adding 8 to last night's game.  Sal Koureissi had "his best game ever" according to the announcers with 5 and they added that "the refs finally stopped picking on him."  No ---- he's an unrefined sophomore and hasn't caught up to the college game.  Matt Grace is nothing but a quick blow for Golden every half.  The bench remains extremely thin and I'd dared them to beat me.  Still waiting on the Connor Crabtree appearance to happen.  Just another player with D1 experience will improve Richmond IMHO.  Richmond host Northern Iowa on ESPN+ on Wednesday at 6/5 central.  Should be interesting.  UNI is 1 and 3 and only beat the St. Ambrose Fighting Bees.  Wouldn't you want to be a 'Fighting Bee?'

Huge play for Richmond was when they were down 5 with just over 2 minutes.  Golden hit a 3 where he was basically left open.  Meanwhile a Richmond player flopped under the basket as players were positioning for the rebound and the refs awarded Richmond a foul, so they went to the line now down only 2.  The guy hit 1 of 2, but this 4 point play pulled Richmond back to within 1 point.  Wofford had momentum, but totally lost it after that.  On the next play a Wofford player dribbling up top chicken winged a Richmond player in the neck for the O foul, RIchmond hit FTs and I don't think they trailed after that.

[Pistol]

You don't have to change a lot of results for the narrative to shift. If you just switched those Penn State and BC losses for VCU and Rhody to wins, and if Dayton and Duquesne had beaten SMU and Little Rock, suddenly we have four unbeatens and a couple 4-1 teams with losses only to ranked teams. Then I'd buy it. As it stands, though, I don't think we have a case to make right now for the league being any stronger than in an average year.

Shows what a fine line our league will always be walking.

[3star_recruit]

7 minutes ago, Pistol said:

I'm a little baffled by everyone saying the league is strong this year.

Richmond and SLU are the only unbeatens, at 3-0 each. Each team has one signature win, Richmond over Kentucky and SLU over LSU.

GMU, Duquesne, and Dayton have one loss each - to Belmont, Little Rock, and SMU, respectively. None of them have impressive wins yet.

Rhody and VCU are 3-2 each. Collectively, their records include good wins over Memphis, Seton Hall, South Florida, San Francisco, and Utah State and losses to Penn State, Boston College, Arizona State, and West Virginia. ASU and WVU are ranked but BC and PSU are the kind of power conference teams the A10 needs to beat for respectability.

GW has three losses to Navy, Hampton, and UMBC and the sole win was over Coppin State. Woof.

St. Joe's and La Salle are winless. St. Joe's should be 0-2 based on a tough schedule, but now misses a bunch of tough games due to positive tests. La Salle has losses to Army and St. Peter's in addition to a game they were expected to lose to St. John's. Woof.

Fordham, Bonaventure, and UMass haven't played yet.

To me, this early season looks very much in line with other years. We have a couple teams at the top with good wins and no losses, a few teams with mixed results, and a clear bottom half already forming with no shortage of bad losses.

The league is "strong" because we're on the verge of two top 25 teams, Rhode Island showed well at one of the better MTEs, a young VCU team knocked off media darling Memphis and the national pundits haven't caught up to Dayton's offensive struggles yet.  Despite them not playing a game yet, it's a safe bet that UMass and the Bonnies are better than last year.

Last year we were supposed to have strong showings from VCU, Davidson and Dayton out of the gate but only Dayton showed up.  So the top half of the league, the only part of the league that gets any national pub, is stronger than last year.  Only A10 MBMs care about the bottom half of the league.

[almaman]

27 minutes ago, Pistol said:

I'm a little baffled by everyone saying the league is strong this year.

Richmond and SLU are the only unbeatens, at 3-0 each. Each team has one signature win, Richmond over Kentucky and SLU over LSU.

GMU, Duquesne, and Dayton have one loss each - to Belmont, Little Rock, and SMU, respectively. None of them have impressive wins yet.

Rhody and VCU are 3-2 each. Collectively, their records include good wins over Memphis, Seton Hall, South Florida, San Francisco, and Utah State and losses to Penn State, Boston College, Arizona State, and West Virginia. ASU and WVU are ranked b agreeut BC and PSU are the kind of power conference teams the A10 needs to beat for respectability.

GW has three losses to Navy, Hampton, and UMBC and the sole win was over Coppin State. Woof.

St. Joe's and La Salle are winless. St. Joe's should be 0-2 based on a tough schedule, but now misses a bunch of tough games due to positive tests. La Salle has losses to Army and St. Peter's in addition to a game they were expected to lose to St. John's. Woof.

Fordham, Bonaventure, and UMass haven't played yet.

To me, this early season looks very much in line with other years. We have a couple teams at the top with good wins and no losses, a few teams with mixed results, and a clear bottom half already forming with no shortage of bad losses.

well said. I agree.

[Reinert310]

Couldn’t you also argue though, that the perception of the A10 being “strong” could be nearly as important as the league actually being strong...in a year where the “eye test” could be more important than it has been (or will be) in years. Whether or not the A10 is any stronger or deeper than any other year might not mean as much as people believing that it’s stronger and deeper.

[RUBillsFan]

1 minute ago, Pistol said:

You don't have to change a lot of results for the narrative to shift. If you just switched those Penn State and BC losses for VCU and Rhody to wins, and if Dayton and Duquesne had beaten SMU and Little Rock, suddenly we have four unbeatens and a couple 4-1 teams with losses only to ranked teams. Then I'd buy it. As it stands, though, I don't think we have a case to make right now for the league being any stronger than in an average year.

Shows what a fine line our league will always be walking.

I definitely agree with this. However, it is still too early to say anything definitively which is why I look at the computer rankings (which are really projections at this point).  As I showed earlier KenPom has the A10 stronger than it has been since 2014.

With the exception of Duq losing to Little Rock, none of those are bad losses or games you'd have expected the A10 team to win necessarily.  This year it seems the A10 has largely beefed up their schedules with some tougher games early which is sort of a contrast to last year where a lot of teams (Duq and Mason in particular) teams played almost no one in nonconference.  You had a lot of teams with zero or one loss, but a dearth of good wins.

I'd break down losses so far like this:

Losses that were expected (8): WV over VCU, Penn St over VCU, ASU over Rhody, Texas over Davidson, Providence over Davidson, Auburn over St. Joes, Kansas over St Joes, St. Johns over LaSalle,

50/50 losses (7): SMU over Dayton, BC over Rhody, Belmont over Mason, St. Peters over LaSalle, Army over LaSalle, Navy over GW, UMBC over GW

Unexpected losses (2): Little Rock over Duq, Hampton over GW

Meanwhile:

unexpected wins (2): Richmond over Kentucky, VCU over Memphis

50/50 wins (6): SLU over LSU, VCU over Utah St, Rhody over So. Florida, Rhody over San Fran, Rhody over Seton Hall, Duq over UNC-G

Pretty even overall.  I'm still bullish on the A10 this year, but I do wonder if the injuries to Sherod and Chatman will end up hurting Richmond & Dayton enough to make this just sort of an average A10 season.

 

[wgstl]

Just now, Reinert310 said:

Couldn’t you also argue though, that the perception of the A10 being “strong” could be nearly as important as the league actually being strong...in a year where the “eye test” could be more important than it has been (or will be) in years. Whether or not the A10 is any stronger or deeper than any other year might not mean as much as people believing that it’s stronger and deeper.

Good point, but I would think the eye test will still show where the A10 really stands.