The Wiz's Preseason Forecast 2020-2021

[Compton]

Reminds me of how much I'd like to see Fordham and LaSalle leave the conference. 

[The Wiz]

2 hours ago, Reinert310 said:

Hey @The Wiz, something I just thought about, and I completely understand that it may be impossible to quantify in your model, but I noticed you predict us as underdogs @Minn, @Richmond and @Dayton, would your projections change at all if it’s determined that there won’t be fans in the stands? Would that change the projections for any of our home games? 

The projection will allow for no fans.....The model will take each venue's historical home field advantage and meld it with the actual  fan data for this year. Any differences will be blended into the forecast. The only game that will be tricky will be the LSU game ....SLU and the Tigers will have only played 1 game against the same  weak opponent.  In addition,  the game will be very close.

[Reinert310]

3 hours ago, The Wiz said:

The projection will allow for no fans.....The model will take each venue's historical home field advantage and meld it with the actual  fan data for this year. Any differences will be blended into the forecast. The only game that will be tricky will be the LSU game ....SLU and the Tigers will have only played 1 game against the same  weak opponent.  In addition,  the game will be very close.

Thanks Wiz. All that stuff is so far over my head. Much appreciated!

[Old guy]

21 hours ago, The Wiz said:

 There is always an X factor  in college bball....and the Bills certainly have had their share over the years....which helped coin the phrase...." it isn't easy being a Bills fan" 

First I am going to assume we will play the games on the schedule.   If we miss a few,  it shouldn't matter....if we miss a lot then there will be nothing to figure.

 

This year there may be something harder than predicting spreads....that may be predicting how many games we will play this season.

Wiz this is the part of your answer where you address my question about what to do with the uncertainty about whether a game will actually be played or not. Please note that you are talking about the extremes of the distribution curve here. On the one side, if we play all or most of the games in the schedule, we will be OK. I fully agree with that. On the other hand you say "if we miss a lot (of  games) then there will be nothing to figure." Well yes and no to that. We are going to miss a number of games for sure, the issue here is how to handle it.

Let's say that we decide we can miss two or three games because of the virus without significant negative effects to our ranking or chance of being invited to the Dance. OK, then this means that would have to play all the other games against any opponents we can find at the time. This will require a large amount of additional work by the staff. Is this necessary or not? Do we follow VCU in making on the fly arrangements to play other opponents or not?

 

[RickThePick]

Forgot about Shaq's kid now being on LSU.  Should make for an interesting matchup.

[Cowboy]

-good to have you back Wiz, looking forward to your stuff as the season progresses and we move up the rankings! thank you for your information

[bauman]

1 hour ago, Cowboy said:

-good to have you back Wiz, looking forward to your stuff as the season progresses and we move up the rankings! thank you for your information

Concur with your comments re the Wiz. I really enjoy his work and comments throughout the season.

One key element for us moving "up the rankings."  We have to beat LSU.  If we don't it will be a long hard pull to get into the top 25.  Looking at the Wiz's pre-season W/L predictions, IF that's where we wind up, won't get us ranked.   With all the high expectations we, as a Board have, I for one will be disappointed if we lose to LSU, MINN and 2-3  A 10 games.  I think we will do better, but to get us some immediate national respect in the polls (like UD got last year as a result of the Hawaii  tournament) we need to beat LSU and solidify that respect with a win at MINN.  Winning the rest of our new OOC games won't carry much weight with the voters.

It's a shame our original OOC schedule fell apart.  That gave us numerous chances to prove we are a top 25 team.  Now for the first month of the season it all depends on one game.

[wgstl]

2 minutes ago, bauman said:

Concur with your comments re the Wiz. I really enjoy his work and comments throughout the season.

One key element for us moving "up the rankings."  We have to beat LSU.  If we don't it will be a long hard pull to get into the top 25.  Looking at the Wiz's pre-season W/L predictions, IF that's where we wind up, won't get us ranked.   With all the high expectations we, as a Board have, I for one will be disappointed if we lose to LSU, MINN and 2-3  A 10 games.  I think we will do better, but to get us some immediate national respect in the polls (like UD got last year as a result of the Hawaii  tournament) we need to beat LSU and solidify that respect with a win at MINN.  Winning the rest of our new OOC games won't carry much weight with the voters.

 

What I worry about is losing a game we should have won at home against LSU, then having do or die on what would be the first road game in Minnesota 

[bauman]

51 minutes ago, wgstl said:

What I worry about is losing a game we should have won at home against LSU, then having do or die on what would be the first road game in Minnesota 

I would not put the LSU game in the "should" have won category.  I have it in the "hope" we win category-I think we have a reasonable chance (as OG would say---50/50) but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

[Minerva N. Owl]

Should we be worried about Duquesne? It seemed we did not match up well against them last year (twice). Our home loss to them last February was ugly. The Post-Dispatch quoted Coach Ford: 'got outplayed beginning to end'. It seemed that Duquesne had both more hustle and more size inside, and they were one of the only teams that made it tough to play bully ball in the paint last year. Seems like a tough challenge to begin conference play (Dec 30).

 

[billiken_roy]

1 minute ago, Minerva N. Owl said:

Should we be worried about Duquesne? It seemed we did not match up well against them last year (twice). Our home loss to them last February was ugly. The Post-Dispatch quoted Coach Ford: 'got outplayed beginning to end'. It seemed that Duquesne had both more hustle and more size inside, and they were one of the only teams that made it tough to play bully ball in the paint last year. Seems like a tough challenge to begin conference play (Dec 30).

 

dambrot is my favorite coach that isnt a billiken

[Major Majerus]

Haven’t had time to read this whole thread but I think we have a clear advantage - it’s our home court & we’ve spent a ton of time practicing on it.  No surprises.  Familiar sight lines.  It’s home - I expect to win.

[maverick]

Wiz -- thanks for putting this together. This is beyond the model, but I am curious to see if there are greater-than-normal effects of early season success / failure, e.g. will teams be quicker to collectively lose momentum given the circumstances, and by contrast, will teams that start of well really tune in (e.g. Northwestern in football) because they realize how special a year it could be ... so much unknown ... which is of course why they play the games. Can't wait!

[bauman]

1 hour ago, Minerva N. Owl said:

Should we be worried about Duquesne? It seemed we did not match up well against them last year (twice). Our home loss to them last February was ugly. The Post-Dispatch quoted Coach Ford: 'got outplayed beginning to end'. It seemed that Duquesne had both more hustle and more size inside, and they were one of the only teams that made it tough to play bully ball in the paint last year. Seems like a tough challenge to begin conference play (Dec 30).

 

They are.  Just like last year.  The top 6 or so teams in the league all present a challenge, but if we are as good as we think we are going to be then I think we could take them all.  It's a shame the A 10 has enough bottom feeders to bring the image of the league down, although I guess some of the weak sisters could just be going through a cyclical period e.g. St Joe, GMU and GW.

[bauman]

On 11/24/2020 at 10:38 AM, The Wiz said:

Minn will finish some where in the middle of the B10....around 6-8....yet they are an A-  team....Rutgers the bottom feeder is a B-  team.  This why the B10 is the #1 league in the country.

Wiz, I don't understand your calling Rutgers a bottom feeder in the Big 10?  They are ranked in the AP top 25.!  Hardly a bottom feeder.

[The Wiz]

14 hours ago, bauman said:

Wiz, I don't understand your calling Rutgers a bottom feeder in the Big 10?  They are ranked in the AP top 25.!  Hardly a bottom feeder.

You are correct....Rutgers is an A- team picked to finish 10th (which would have been a bottom feeder in the old B10)  and again shows the strength of the conference. The actual bottom feeder is Nebraska which comes in as a B rated team .....not too bad for a last place team.  Neb would be a 1st place team in half (17 of 34) of the other conferences. 

By comparison, the Bills could be a 1st place finisher in 28 conferences.

[The Wiz]

17 hours ago, maverick said:

Wiz -- thanks for putting this together. This is beyond the model, but I am curious to see if there are greater-than-normal effects of early season success / failure, e.g. will teams be quicker to collectively lose momentum given the circumstances, and by contrast, will teams that start of well really tune in (e.g. Northwestern in football) because they realize how special a year it could be ... so much unknown ... which is of course why they play the games. Can't wait!

There are bigger changes in the model during the 1st 8 games. It is a factor of real data replacing predictive numbers. The idea is like the game  ...6 degrees of Kevin Bacon  That after 6 connections everybody is connected. In college basketball it takes about 8 games for all D1 teams to become connected and therefore create enough of a sample size to have a predictive model.  At that point , things like momentum, teams gelling,  etc  can feed into it.

As a result , teams can vary 2 levels from the beginning of the season to the end. For example, the Bills are a B+ team.  They could finish as high as A  (strong run in the Dance...or as low as B- (NIT)  In a normal year, after the OOC is complete, the ratings lock in again narrowing to only 1 level of variance. But this year because of the short season OOC and 8th game are one and the same.  We will need an additional 5 games for the 2nd lock in.  If things go according to plan  that would be after Davidson game on Jan 15.  Again as an example if the Bills can start Conf play as an A team (variance A- to A+ ) and hold onto that grade through Jan 15 they would not only be on their way to the Dance but would have a chance at a deep run.  Of course, if we don't get to 8 games by Conf play or 13 by Jan 15,  then things could get screwed up.

Bottom line ...Things look good now.

 

[The Wiz]

Just an update after the LSU game...

Our numbers,  as expected , improved.....but we remain at B+......LSU slips back to A- from A. 

Why do we stay at the same grade level?.... Because most of the model is still predictive at this point....25% real ...75% predictive....it is setup this way to allow for wild swings early in the season due to a team not being up to speed  or an opponent who plays over their head early on ....and to give the model enough time to gather real data. (in our case Dec24...after 8 games)  Even though the next 3 games will be against creampuffs and normally wouldn't be very significant... if we whup them like we are supposed to....then are numbers and grade will improve.....at that point, we would have 63% real data....and the computer will start to see we are for real ....something all true Bills fans know already. In other words , the computer has the attitude ....it has to see the kids play.

One last thing...why did LSU go down ...they only have 2 games also?   Two reasons.....LSU lost to a lesser team...more of a penalty....and they were ranked highly...the computer adjusts more quickly when you are an A rated team.

[BACKHANDtheRICAN]

19 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Just an update after the LSU game...

Our numbers,  as expected , improved.....but we remain at B+......LSU slips back to A- from A. 

Why do we stay at the same grade level?.... Because most of the model is still predictive at this point....25% real ...75% predictive....it is setup this way to allow for wild swings early in the season due to a team not being up to speed  or an opponent who plays over their head early on ....and to give the model enough time to gather real data. (in our case Dec24...after 8 games)  Even though the next 3 games will be against creampuffs and normally wouldn't be very significant... if we whup them like we are supposed to....then are numbers and grade will improve.....at that point, we would have 63% real data....and the computer will start to see we are for real ....something all true Bills fans know already. In other words , the computer has the attitude ....it has to see the kids play.

One last thing...why did LSU go down ...they only have 2 games also?   Two reasons.....LSU lost to a lesser team...more of a penalty....and they were ranked highly...the computer adjusts more quickly when you are an A rated team.

Wiz

Update the model. Don’t not settle for mediocrity. 

Thanks, 

Backhand