The Wiz's Preseason Forecast 2020-2021

[The Wiz]

Hi all....This is the official start of my basketball season.  For those that are new , this is the first of 2 forecasts....the preseason and before conference play begins .  I usually have 3 forecasts...an additional one after 8 games...but this year, after 8 games and the start of the conference season will be one and the same.  This preseason prediction is based on a Bayesian model....the next one on real data.  I use a letter grade system which groups similar teams together.  As the season starts to unfold I use the first 8 games to meld the Bayesian model with  the real data model gradually integrating the real data with the forecasting tool and then dropping  the Bayesian after the first 8 games  (after the KC game on Dec 23).   As the season goes on and I have more data , I become more accurate ( at least that is the way it is suppose to work).

A side note here...My last posts in the 2019- 2020 season were in the SLU, NCAA and Covid thread on May 2. In that thread , I used some data analysis to create a covid vaccine bracket with the idea of trying to pick the winning vaccines....Sadly the thread was dropped. However , it is interesting to note that in that May 2 post I listed what I thought would be the top 8 finishers....the Top 3 were Astra Zeneca. ..Moderna...and Pfizer.  Let's hope my basketball prognostications for this season are as good.

First let's start with the A-10....Overall the conference comes in at B+...same as last year's beginning. The conference finished the season at B.

Here is what the A-10 breakdown looks like.

1...The Bills...........B+

2...Day..................B+

3...Rich..................B+

4...Dav...................B

5...Duq...................B

6...RI.......................B

7...St. B...................B

8...VCU....................B-

9...GM......................C+

10...UMass...............C+

11...GW......................C

12...LaS.....................C-

13...St. J.....................C-

14...Ford.....................D

 

Overall ...a lot of parity except for Fordham....SLU has a 76% chance of making  the Dance. Of the top 3 teams  at least 2 will be dancing with a good chance all 3 will make it.  Two of the next 4 will be looking at the NIT.

Using the 2 step variable,  SLU has a range of A to B-...ie from a Sweet 16 in the Dance to a Sweet 16 in the NIT.  If we can improve our grade to A  by the end of the OOC schedule....Then this might be our year.

 

Season projection---

Best case scenario.....23-3

Worst case...................21-5

Most likely ..................22-4

A few side notes.....there are  4 new Div 1 teams this year.....ie some new F- bottom feeders........I expect 3 pt shooting  to improve  as the Division gets another year under its belt with the new distance. .......It has been a real struggle to put this report together this year as schedules continue to change.  Remember, it's not just about collecting data on the Bills but on everybody the Bills play.......

OOC....mostly Ds and Fs....The  tough games will be LSU (A) our most difficult game of the year and Minn (A- )    Ind St checks in at a decent B- ...if they show up.  The OOC will be more important this year . With fewer games there will be less data to analyze.  The NCAA may rely even more on metrics to make post season decisions.

A-10 games....Toughest ones will be Rich and Day away

Bottom line....This will be the best team we have had since the RM years.  However this is not a done deal...there are still some question marks....not the least of which ....How does this team hold up playing and traveling in a covid environment. ...Also,  will they gel....not in the usual sense... we know they are a good team ...but can they gel into a great team.  We will have some answers by the end of the OOC on Dec 23. If the answer is yes ...we could be looking at a special year.

 

 

[Reinert310]

55 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Hi all....This is the official start of my basketball season.  For those that are new , this is the first of 2 forecasts....the preseason and before conference play begins .  I usually have 3 forecasts...an additional one after 8 games...but this year, after 8 games and the start of the conference season will be one and the same.  This preseason prediction is based on a Bayesian model....the next one on real data.  I use a letter grade system which groups similar teams together.  As the season starts to unfold I use the first 8 games to meld the Bayesian model with  the real data model gradually integrating the real data with the forecasting tool and then dropping  the Bayesian after the first 8 games  (after the KC game on Dec 23).   As the season goes on and I have more data , I become more accurate ( at least that is the way it is suppose to work).

A side note here...My last posts in the 2019- 2020 season were in the SLU, NCAA and Covid thread on May 2. In that thread , I used some data analysis to create a covid vaccine bracket with the idea of trying to pick the winning vaccines....Sadly the thread was dropped. However , it is interesting to note that in that May 2 post I listed what I thought would be the top 8 finishers....the Top 3 were Astra Zeneca. ..Moderna...and Pfizer.  Let's hope my basketball prognostications for this season are as good.

First let's start with the A-10....Overall the conference comes in at B+...same as last year's beginning. The conference finished the season at B.

Here is what the A-10 breakdown looks like.

1...The Bills...........B+

2...Day..................B+

3...Rich..................B+

4...Dav...................B

5...Duq...................B

6...RI.......................B

7...St. B...................B

8...VCU....................B-

9...GM......................C+

10...UMass...............C+

11...GW......................C

12...LaS.....................C-

13...St. J.....................C-

14...Ford.....................D

 

Overall ...a lot of parity except for Fordham....SLU has a 76% chance of making  the Dance. Of the top 3 teams  at least 2 will be dancing with a good chance all 3 will make it.  Two of the next 4 will be looking at the NIT.

Using the 2 step variable,  SLU has a range of A to B-...ie from a Sweet 16 in the Dance to a Sweet 16 in the NIT.  If we can improve our grade to A  by the end of the OOC schedule....Then this might be our year.

 

Season projection---

Best case scenario.....23-3

Worst case...................21-5

Most likely ..................22-4

A few side notes.....there are  4 new Div 1 teams this year.....ie some new F- bottom feeders........I expect 3 pt shooting  to improve  as the Division gets another year under its belt with the new distance. .......It has been a real struggle to put this report together this year as schedules continue to change.  Remember, it's not just about collecting data on the Bills but on everybody the Bills play.......

OOC....mostly Ds and Fs....The  tough games will be LSU (A) our most difficult game of the year and Minn (A- )    Ind St checks in at a decent B- ...if they show up.  The OOC will be more important this year . With fewer games there will be less data to analyze.  The NCAA may rely even more on metrics to make post season decisions.

A-10 games....Toughest ones will be Rich and Day away

Bottom line....This will be the best team we have had since the RM years.  However this is not a done deal...there are still some question marks....not the least of which ....How does this team hold up playing and traveling in a covid environment. ...Also,  will they gel....not in the usual sense... we know they are a good team ...but can they gel into a great team.  We will have some answers by the end of the OOC on Dec 23. If the answer is yes ...we could be looking at a special year.

 

 

@The WizI always love and appreciate all your work, but I’ve never been so excited for one of your forecasts. I wish there was a camera on me when I saw the thread and how big my smile grew. I’m just so ready for Billiken basketball after this crazy year. The fact that this team has so much potential, just adds to my excitement. I just want to watch some games. I don’t care if it’s Northern Iowa or SIUE. I just need some “JAMTIMEs” and “Bang, he got its”. #TeamBlue

[Old guy]

Hello Wiz,

I am just curious about what you are doing to incorporate the uncertainty level introduced by the virus and the regulations in the 2020-2021 session. Your model works fine in a regular session, but this is not a regular session. What have you done to tune it up to present circumstances?

[almaman]

2 hours ago, Old guy said:

Hello Wiz,

I am just curious about what you are doing to incorporate the uncertainty level introduced by the virus and the regulations in the 2020-2021 session. Your model works fine in a regular session, but this is not a regular session. What have you done to tune it up to present circumstances?

He’s a wizard not an MD.

[The Wiz]

2 hours ago, Old guy said:

Hello Wiz,

I am just curious about what you are doing to incorporate the uncertainty level introduced by the virus and the regulations in the 2020-2021 session. Your model works fine in a regular session, but this is not a regular session. What have you done to tune it up to present circumstances?

 There is always an X factor  in college bball....and the Bills certainly have had their share over the years....which helped coin the phrase...." it isn't easy being a Bills fan" 

First I am going to assume we will play the games on the schedule.   If we miss a few,  it shouldn't matter....if we miss a lot then there will be nothing to figure.

Probably the  biggest factor will be no fans.  Rather than me discuss the fan advantage , I will leave you with a link that explains "fan factor".   BTW,  the study was done using the A-10 and included data from The Bills.      https://thesportjournal.org/article/the-home-court-advantage-evidence-from-mens-college-basketball/

The other will be travel.  Always a factor ....it will be even more stressful this year. The lack of fans may cancel out the travel disadvantage from the visiting team. We will see.

Again, there always unknowns but this is where the first 8 games of data will try to incorporate the changes as they are happening.  That process continues for the whole season....the first  8 games is just the data collection for a minimum sample size.  If Covid starts to subside  the computer will adjust over time.

The most difficult time to forecast will be the beginning of the season with a Bayesian (predictive) model. Here is a spoiler alert....we win the first game.

This year there may be something harder than predicting spreads....that may be predicting how many games we will play this season.

[brianstl]

2 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

 There is always an X factor  in college bball....and the Bills certainly have had their share over the years....which helped coin the phrase...." it isn't easy being a Bills fan" 

First I am going to assume we will play the games on the schedule.   If we miss a few,  it shouldn't matter....if we miss a lot then there will be nothing to figure.

Probably the  biggest factor will be no fans.  Rather than me discuss the fan advantage , I will leave you with a link that explains "fan factor" BTW the study was done using the A-10 and included data from The Bills.      https://thesportjournal.org/article/the-home-court-advantage-evidence-from-mens-college-basketball/

The other will be travel.  Always a factor ....it will be even more stressful this year. The lack of fans may cancel out the travel disadvantage from the visiting team. We will see.

Again, there always unknowns but this is where the first 8 games of data will try to incorporate the changes as they are happening.  That process continues for the whole season....the first  8 games is just the data collection for a minimum sample size.  If Covid starts to subside  the computer will adjust over time.

The most difficult time to forecast will be the beginning of the season with a Bayesian (predictive) model. Here is a spoiler alert....we win the first game.

This year there may be something harder than predicting spreads....that may be predicting how many games we will play this season.

I am actually surprised we haven't seen a move to house visiting teams on campus for the first part of the college basketball season.  The schools are going to be out.  With that it would appear on the surface, at least, as a way to cut down on the number of contacts visiting have while on the road.

[The Wiz]

6 minutes ago, brianstl said:

I am actually surprised we haven't seen a move to house visiting teams on campus for the first part of the college basketball season.  The schools are going to be out.  With that it would appear on the surface, at least, as a way to cut down on the number of contacts visiting have while on the road.

Every team has a game every few days....After the Billiken Classic, we play 6 games in 18 days and the teams we are playing are doing the same....It would be difficult to create a bubble during a super shuffle.

[brianstl]

8 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Every team has a game every few days....After the Billiken Classic, we play 6 games in 18 days and the teams we are playing are doing the same....It would be difficult to create a bubble during a super shuffle.

I am not saying create a bubble.  Staying on campus would eliminate having to take a bus back and fourth from the hotel and the game while eliminating teams from contacts with other hotel guests.  

[The Wiz]

15 minutes ago, brianstl said:

I am not saying create a bubble.  Staying on campus would eliminate having to take a bus back and fourth from the hotel and the game while eliminating teams from contacts with other hotel guests.  

That makes sense....anything that reduces contact is a good idea.

[SLUMedBilliken15]

I am no statistician, but a worst case scenario of 21-5 in a strong A-10 seems overly optimistic. However, I trust the Wiz as statistics are the best way we have of predicting the future.  

[brianstl]

10 minutes ago, SLUMedBilliken15 said:

I am no statistician, but a worst case scenario of 21-5 in a strong A-10 seems overly optimistic. However, I trust the Wiz as statistics are the best way we have of predicting the future.  

Right now we would be favored to win all but two games on our schedule according to Barttorvick's T-Rank season forecast.  We are about a -1.5 point dog at Minnesota and a around a -.5 dog at Richmond.  That forecast has us going 21-5.

https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?team=Saint+Louis&year=2021

[wgstl]

Just now, brianstl said:

Right now we would be favored to win all but two games on our schedule according to Barttorvick's T-Rank season forecast.  We are about a -1.5 point dog at Minnesota and a around a -.5 dog at Richmond.  That forecast has us going 21-5.

https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?team=Saint+Louis&year=2021

And I bet that 'sota line moves. 

[The Wiz]

14 minutes ago, SLUMedBilliken15 said:

I am no statistician, but a worst case scenario of 21-5 in a strong A-10 seems overly optimistic. However, I trust the Wiz as statistics are the best way we have of predicting the future.  

It is optimistic but then again the numbers show we are a good team. I was optimistic during the RM era and those projections seemed to hold up.  As I said in the opening post , the question isn't whether we are a good team but will we be a great team. Check back on Dec 24 after the KC game and we will have some answers with real data.

[Old guy]

There is no question we are a very good team, the problem I see if whether or not we will have the chance to prove it to the NCAA's satisfaction before the Dance.

[bauman]

I'm very surprised to see MINN as an A level team.  They are picked to be towards the bottom of the Big 10, which I know is going to be a streong league this year, but I don't think the whole league will be A's and if MINN is then there aren't many below them in that league.

I see one game that is the most important for many reasons.  It's the second game against LSU.  I think we will beat MINN and have a reasonable chance of running the A 10 schedule, IF we stay healthy.  But then, I'm not The Wiz.

[wgstl]

4 minutes ago, bauman said:

I'm very surprised to see MINN as an A level team.  They are picked to be towards the bottom of the Big 10, which I know is going to be a streong league this year, but I don't think the whole league will be A's and if MINN is then there aren't many below them in that league.

I see one game that is the most important for many reasons.  It's the second game against LSU.  I think we will beat MINN and have a reasonable chance of running the A 10 schedule, IF we stay healthy.  But then, I'm not The Wiz.

LSU scares me more than Minnesota.

LSU is flying under the preseason radar

[The Wiz]

7 minutes ago, bauman said:

I'm very surprised to see MINN as an A level team.  They are picked to be towards the bottom of the Big 10, which I know is going to be a streong league this year, but I don't think the whole league will be A's and if MINN is then there aren't many below them in that league.

I see one game that is the most important for many reasons.  It's the second game against LSU.  I think we will beat MINN and have a reasonable chance of running the A 10 schedule, IF we stay healthy.  But then, I'm not The Wiz.

Minn will finish some where in the middle of the B10....around 6-8....yet they are an A-  team....Rutgers the bottom feeder is a B-  team.  This why the B10 is the #1 league in the country.

[billiken_roy]

26 minutes ago, Old guy said:

There is no question we are a very good team, the problem I see if whether or not we will have the chance to prove it to the NCAA's satisfaction before the Dance.

big key is just winning the games we are supposed to win.   no egg laying please.  

[The Wiz]

34 minutes ago, brianstl said:

Right now we would be favored to win all but two games on our schedule according to Barttorvick's T-Rank season forecast.  We are about a -1.5 point dog at Minnesota and a around a -.5 dog at Richmond.  That forecast has us going 21-5.

https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?team=Saint+Louis&year=2021

This is what I am showing at this time....

Minn  by 7

Day  by 6  (@Day)

Rich by 5 (@ Rich) 

I also have LSU and VCU as even.

 The computer gives us a split on the LSU and VCU games for a 22-4.....a sweep on the even games and we are 23-3  ...if we get swept then 21-5.

[The Wiz]

7 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

big key is just winning the games we are supposed to win.   no egg laying please.  

Amen

[RUBillsFan]

2 hours ago, billiken_roy said:

big key is just winning the games we are supposed to win.   no egg laying please.  

This was actually a big key to last season especially in the non-conference where our only losses were Seton Hall & Auburn.  We dropped games we shouldn't have at home to Duq and on the road to St Joes, but overall not many "bad" losses.  Pulling out wins at home when we played pretty bad against bad teams (High Point, Maryville, Bethune-Cookman, UMass, GW) ended up being pretty huge.

[Reinert310]

Hey @The Wiz, something I just thought about, and I completely understand that it may be impossible to quantify in your model, but I noticed you predict us as underdogs @Minn, @Richmond and @Dayton, would your projections change at all if it’s determined that there won’t be fans in the stands? Would that change the projections for any of our home games? 

[AnkielBreakers]

14 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Hi all....This is the official start of my basketball season.  For those that are new , this is the first of 2 forecasts....the preseason and before conference play begins .  I usually have 3 forecasts...an additional one after 8 games...but this year, after 8 games and the start of the conference season will be one and the same.  This preseason prediction is based on a Bayesian model....the next one on real data.  I use a letter grade system which groups similar teams together.  As the season starts to unfold I use the first 8 games to meld the Bayesian model with  the real data model gradually integrating the real data with the forecasting tool and then dropping  the Bayesian after the first 8 games  (after the KC game on Dec 23).   As the season goes on and I have more data , I become more accurate ( at least that is the way it is suppose to work).

A side note here...My last posts in the 2019- 2020 season were in the SLU, NCAA and Covid thread on May 2. In that thread , I used some data analysis to create a covid vaccine bracket with the idea of trying to pick the winning vaccines....Sadly the thread was dropped. However , it is interesting to note that in that May 2 post I listed what I thought would be the top 8 finishers....the Top 3 were Astra Zeneca. ..Moderna...and Pfizer.  Let's hope my basketball prognostications for this season are as good.

First let's start with the A-10....Overall the conference comes in at B+...same as last year's beginning. The conference finished the season at B.

Here is what the A-10 breakdown looks like.

1...The Bills...........B+

2...Day..................B+

3...Rich..................B+

4...Dav...................B

5...Duq...................B

6...RI.......................B

7...St. B...................B

8...VCU....................B-

9...GM......................C+

10...UMass...............C+

11...GW......................C

12...LaS.....................C-

13...St. J.....................C-

14...Ford.....................D

 

Overall ...a lot of parity except for Fordham....SLU has a 76% chance of making  the Dance. Of the top 3 teams  at least 2 will be dancing with a good chance all 3 will make it.  Two of the next 4 will be looking at the NIT.

Using the 2 step variable,  SLU has a range of A to B-...ie from a Sweet 16 in the Dance to a Sweet 16 in the NIT.  If we can improve our grade to A  by the end of the OOC schedule....Then this might be our year.

 

Season projection---

Best case scenario.....23-3

Worst case...................21-5

Most likely ..................22-4

A few side notes.....there are  4 new Div 1 teams this year.....ie some new F- bottom feeders........I expect 3 pt shooting  to improve  as the Division gets another year under its belt with the new distance. .......It has been a real struggle to put this report together this year as schedules continue to change.  Remember, it's not just about collecting data on the Bills but on everybody the Bills play.......

OOC....mostly Ds and Fs....The  tough games will be LSU (A) our most difficult game of the year and Minn (A- )    Ind St checks in at a decent B- ...if they show up.  The OOC will be more important this year . With fewer games there will be less data to analyze.  The NCAA may rely even more on metrics to make post season decisions.

A-10 games....Toughest ones will be Rich and Day away

Bottom line....This will be the best team we have had since the RM years.  However this is not a done deal...there are still some question marks....not the least of which ....How does this team hold up playing and traveling in a covid environment. ...Also,  will they gel....not in the usual sense... we know they are a good team ...but can they gel into a great team.  We will have some answers by the end of the OOC on Dec 23. If the answer is yes ...we could be looking at a special year.

 

 

My finely tuned prediction engine says we are going 36-0.

[Reinert310]

1 minute ago, AnkielBreakers said:

My finely tuned prediction engine says we are going 36-0.

Ah yes, @AnkielBreakerscoming in strong with the mathematically superior Blue Kool-Aid model! I like it!

[Reinert310]

1 minute ago, Reinert310 said:

Ah yes, @AnkielBreakerscoming in strong with the mathematically superior Blue Kool-Aid model! I like it!

What makes the Blue Kool-Aid Model so much better than others is that it uses (and weighs heavily) a metric that other models don’t. That metric being that the Billikens are the best. Other models refuse to acknowledge this, which is...disappointing.