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2020-21 stat predictor


Cowboy

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-I may have let my enthusiasm, anticipation and excitement for this season get the better of me, but here's a list of stats for the team/players if you want to predict or guess, there are a lot but we have a few days until we are scheduled to begin(one less than I thought when I started this, part of the exercise) - if there is participation we'll crown a champion after the season  -- good luck - to keep it straight I recommend copying the questions and putting guess/prediction/prognostication after each one

How many games will the Bills play? - 

H French season Free Throw% - 

HF season Rebounds Per Game - 

HF season Points Per Game - 

HF season Minutes Per Game - 

JGood season 3pt shooting% - 

JGood season FT% - 

JGood season RPG - 

JGood season PPG - 

JGood season MPG - 

Yuri season Assists Per Game - 

Yuri season Turnovers Per Game - 

Yuri season FT% - 

Yuri season MPG - 

GibJim season 3pt% - 

GibJim season FT% - 

GibJim season MPG - 

TJ Hargrove season field goal % - 

TJ Hargrove # of 3pt attempts per game - 

TJ Hargrove season MPG - 

JPerk season PPG - 

JPerk season FT% - 

JPerk season MPG - 

FThatch season MPG - 

FThatch season PPG - 

FThatch season FT% - 

Jimmy Bell season FT% - 

Jimmy Bell season RPG - 

Jimmy Bell season PPG - 

Jimmy Bell season MPG - 

DJacobs season 3pt% - 

DJacobs season MPG - 

DJacobs how many games played? - 

M Linssen season MPG - 

M Linssen season PPG - 

M Linssen season RPG - 

Josh Hightower how many games played? - 

Appears in more games: Strickland, Russell or Lorentsson? - 

High rebound game, who and how many - 

Second highest rebound game, who and how many - 

High scoring game, who and how many - 

Second highest scoring game, who and how many - 

Conference place (first, second, etc) - 

Conference record -  

End of season is -  

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Just now, Cowboy said:

How many games will the Bills play? - 27

H French season Free Throw% - 42

HF season Rebounds Per Game - 9.6

HF season Points Per Game - 12.8

HF season Minutes Per Game - 29.1

JGood season 3pt shooting% - 33.6

JGood season FT% - 68.5

JGood season RPG - 10.6

JGood season PPG - 16.8

JGood season MPG - 35.1

Yuri season Assists Per Game - 5.3

Yuri season Turnovers Per Game - 2.7

Yuri season FT% - 67.7

Yuri season MPG - 32.2

GibJim season 3pt% - 39.6

GibJim season FT% - 89.4

GibJim season MPG - 27.7

TJ Hargrove season field goal % - 49.7

TJ Hargrove # of 3pt attempts per game - 2.2

TJ Hargrove season MPG - 18.6

JPerk season PPG - 14.7

JPerk season FT% - 80.2

JPerk season MPG - 31.3

FThatch season MPG - 18.1

FThatch season PPG - 7.7

FThatch season FT% - 73.5

Jimmy Bell season FT% - 65.8

Jimmy Bell season RPG - 3.4

Jimmy Bell season PPG - 2.9

Jimmy Bell season MPG - 12.7

DJacobs season 3pt% - 37.8

DJacobs season MPG - 18.6

DJacobs how many games played? - 23

M Linssen season MPG - 14.8

M Linssen season PPG - 4.1

M Linssen season RPG - 3.8

Josh Hightower how many games played? - 14

Appears in more games: Strickland, Russell or Lorentsson? - Russell

High rebound game, who and how many - 18, JGood

Second highest rebound game, who and how many - 17, HF

High scoring game, who and how many - 26, JGood

Second highest scoring game, who and how many -25, GibJim

Conference place (first, second, etc) - first

Conference record -  13-2

End of season is -  lose in Elite 8

 

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How many games will the Bills play? - 27

H French season Free Throw% - 51

HF season Rebounds Per Game - 10.8

HF season Points Per Game - 12.8

HF season Minutes Per Game - 30.4

JGood season 3pt shooting% - 34

JGood season FT% - 68

JGood season RPG - 10.2

JGood season PPG - 16.5

JGood season MPG - 33

Yuri season Assists Per Game - 7.8

Yuri season Turnovers Per Game - 3.4

Yuri season FT% - 71

Yuri season MPG - 32

GibJim season 3pt% - 43

GibJim season FT% - 81

GibJim season MPG - 24

TJ Hargrove season field goal % - 54

TJ Hargrove # of 3pt attempts per game - 1;1

TJ Hargrove season MPG - 21

JPerk season PPG - 18.9

JPerk season FT% - 79

JPerk season MPG - 30

FThatch season MPG - 18

FThatch season PPG - 7.3

FThatch season FT% - 65

Jimmy Bell season FT% - 61

Jimmy Bell season RPG - 3.9

Jimmy Bell season PPG -7.4

Jimmy Bell season MPG - 22

DJacobs season 3pt% - 38

DJacobs season MPG -18 

DJacobs how many games played? - 24

M Linssen season MPG - 14

M Linssen season PPG -4.1

M Linssen season RPG - 2.7

Josh Hightower how many games played? - 4

Appears in more games: Strickland, Russell or Lorentsson? - Lorentsson

High rebound game, who and how many - 19 French

Second highest rebound game, who and how many - 17 Goodwin

High scoring game, who and how many - 32 Perkins

Second highest scoring game, who and how many - 27 Jimerson

Conference place (first, second, etc) - 1st

Conference record -  16-1

End of season is -  Final 4

 
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Thats a lot to fill out. But I'll do schedule predictions

W SIUE

L LSU

W APB

W CENTRAL ARK

W EVANSVILLE

W Indiana State

W @ Minnesota

W KC

7-1

------

W DUQUESNE

W UMASS

W @ LA SALLE

W @ ST JOES

W DAVIDSON

W @ UMASS

W ST BONNIES

W DAYTON

L @ RICHMOND

W @ GEEDUB

W RHODY

W @FORDHAM

W LA SALLE

L @DAYTON

W @ VCU

W RICHMOND

W GEORGE MASON

(15-2)17-3

---------------

3-0 in A10 tournament 

Sweet 16

Final 22-4

 

 

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8 minutes ago, wgstl said:

Thats a lot to fill out. But I'll do schedule predictions

W SIUE

L LSU

W APB

W CENTRAL ARK

W EVANSVILLE

W Indiana State

W @ Minnesota

W KC

7-1

------

W DUQUESNE

W UMASS

W @ LA SALLE

W @ ST JOES

W DAVIDSON

W @ UMASS

W ST BONNIES

W DAYTON

L @ RICHMOND

W @ GEEDUB

W RHODY

W @FORDHAM

W LA SALLE

L @DAYTON

W @ VCU

W RICHMOND

W GEORGE MASON

(15-2)17-3

---------------

3-0 in A10 tournament 

Sweet 16

Final 22-4

 

 

I applaud your optimism that all of these games will be played.  That's the only way to look at it.  (I think you left out the TBD game at St. Bonnie.)  Of the 26 scheluled pre-tourney games, I'd be happy if 20 get played. 

 

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32 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

I applaud your optimism that all of these games will be played.  That's the only way to look at it.  (I think you left out the TBD game at St. Bonnie.)  Of the 26 scheluled pre-tourney games, I'd be happy if 20 get played. 

 

I dont think it'll be too hard.  I think we'll see a few games get rescheduled with the date appearing just days before the game is played. like this MTE. 

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On 11/20/2020 at 2:06 PM, Cowboy said:

How many games will the Bills play? - 23

H French season Free Throw% - 45

HF season Rebounds Per Game - 11

HF season Points Per Game - 11

HF season Minutes Per Game - 33

JGood season 3pt shooting% - 30

JGood season FT% - 60

JGood season RPG - 11

JGood season PPG - 14

JGood season MPG - 37

Yuri season Assists Per Game - 6

Yuri season Turnovers Per Game - 2

Yuri season FT% - 63

Yuri season MPG - 34

GibJim season 3pt% - 41

GibJim season FT% - 92

GibJim season MPG - 30

TJ Hargrove season field goal % - 50

TJ Hargrove # of 3pt attempts per game - 3

TJ Hargrove season MPG - 30

JPerk season PPG - 16

JPerk season FT% - 85

JPerk season MPG - 32

FThatch season MPG - 28

FThatch season PPG - 8

FThatch season FT% - 68%

Jimmy Bell season FT% - 71

Jimmy Bell season RPG - 6

Jimmy Bell season PPG - 7

Jimmy Bell season MPG - 26

DJacobs season 3pt% - 34

DJacobs season MPG - 16

DJacobs how many games played? - I think we see Jacobs every game

M Linssen season MPG - 12

M Linssen season PPG - 4

M Linssen season RPG - 1

Josh Hightower how many games played? - 3

Appears in more games: Strickland, Russell or Lorentsson? - 

High rebound game, who and how many - French, 20

Second highest rebound game, who and how many - French, 17

High scoring game, who and how many - Perkins, 28

Second highest scoring game, who and how many - Perkins, 27

Conference place (first, second, etc) - First

Conference record -  Hard to guess how many games played but I think not more than one loss.

End of season is -  Final Four, baby!!!

Here's mine...Disclaimer: I didn't check to see if these minutes make sense at all mathematically...These guesses are based on nothing except what I felt like

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29 minutes ago, wgstl said:

I dont think it'll be too hard.  I think we'll see a few games get rescheduled with the date appearing just days before the game is played. like this MTE. 

Agreed. Flexibility is the key. For example, I just saw on Twitter that Ole Miss can't play in their MTE and won't be able to play Memphis on Dec. 5. Somebody at SLU should be calling Memphis right now to see if they want to drive north to play us. If they are game you call Arkansas Pine Bluff and find another date that could work with them.

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4 hours ago, wgstl said:

I dont think it'll be too hard.  I think we'll see a few games get rescheduled with the date appearing just days before the game is played. like this MTE. 

I hope you are right.  The key is to somehow get around this 14 day pause period, for the entire team.  That doesn't make sense, but appears to be the guideline now.  If that guideline holds, any game caught up in that timeline would be difficult to reschedule.  There has to be a negative testing out policy or this entire NCAA season will be a shytstorm.

Update 2 pm:  Duke and Arizona just canceled their season openers.  Doesn't appear they will be rescheduled.  As of 2 pm, Arizona State is on a flight to the Mohegan Sun Bubble, and don't know who they will play.  Crazy!

Update 3 pm:  Oregon dumps out of Mohegan Sun.  A scorecard won't even help keeping up with what is going on.

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There are ways to deal with a probabilistic analysis for this season, however the margin of error is likely to be a lot larger than in normal seasons, because this season does not only depends on how well a team plays or the amount of injuries it gets, but it depends upon games lost to the virus and regulations. The virus lost games may be due to positive tests within the team or within the opposing team. A lot of these factors can be estimated, although with  larger margins of error than usual. I really would not know how it would be possible to account for a scenario where we cannot play a scheduled game because of the opposite team being out in quarantine, but find another team in the same situation and play with them. Do not know if this is even possible.

Let's say we do all this work using a worse case scenario, and a best case scenario. Remember, every team is in the same boat but every team will most likely be affected differently by the virus. We will probably end in between the two extremes but how to estimate where between the two extremes at this time is something I cannot do. Maybe the whiz can do this kind of actuarial analysis but I am pretty sure I cannot

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