Coach Ford

[Clock_Tower]

2 hours ago, BilliesBy40 said:

Let me be clear, I have been thoroughly impressed with Ford’s body of work thus far at SLU. However, next year is a make or break season. Barring any injuries or other abnormalities, he has to make a run in the NCAA. Failing to win one or two NCAA tournament games over the course of the careers of Goodwin and French would be utter failure, especially with how loaded we should be next season.

Sorry.   But that sentiment is exactly what is wrong with college sports - and wrong here at SLU.   Goodwin and French came here to a rebuild and had no expectation of a Tourney run their Freshman year - and Goodwin himself was not allowed to play (due to his own off the court conduct) for the remaining half of his Freshman year and would not have played in any NCAA Tourney that year.  Despite a raw deal from our administration, French and Goodwin still made the NCAA Tourney their Sophomore year and were on their way again this year despite unexpected, major losses to key players like Fred and Gibson.   Next man up...   But again, Goodwin was not allowed to play this year in the Tourney along with French and rest of the guys.   And next year, I suspect all on this Board are very optimistic and will predict that we make the Tourney next year.  But to declare the careers of Goodwin and French a failure if we don't win 2 games next year is ridiculous.  Matchups, unlucky seeds and first/second round draws...  remember Oregon - a truly bad and unlucky draw for us.

But according to your standard, we then accept failure and do nothing?  Or because of the failure, fire the coach/staff and start over?  

And as much as I like French and Goodwin, both can and should fix holes in their games to deserve the pedestal you are placing them on.  In fact, I suspect neither French nor Goodwin will be our best player next year.

 

[wgstl]

1 hour ago, JohnnyJumpUp said:

I agree and i want him to stay at SLU and try to win here, I just think it could be easier at another school in a P5 conference, and if thats what he's chasing, the easiest route makes sense. 

P5 isnt a thing in college basketball.  Hell, according to a ton of the predicted brackets ive seen, most of the elite 8 teams were "mid majors".  10 years ago, nah, 7 years ago I would have agreed that P5 was a thing, I dont anymore. 

 

Its all about resources.  Thats what separates teams, not conference affiliation.  We have that luckily. 

[BilliesBy40]

31 minutes ago, Clock_Tower said:

Sorry.   But that sentiment is exactly what is wrong with college sports - and wrong here at SLU.   Goodwin and French came here to a rebuild and had no expectation of a Tourney run their Freshman year - and Goodwin himself was not allowed to play (due to his own off the court conduct) for the remaining half of his Freshman year and would not have played in any NCAA Tourney that year.  Despite a raw deal from our administration, French and Goodwin still made the NCAA Tourney their Sophomore year and were on their way again this year despite unexpected, major losses to key players like Fred and Gibson.   Next man up...   But again, Goodwin was not allowed to play this year in the Tourney along with French and rest of the guys.   And next year, I suspect all on this Board are very optimistic and will predict that we make the Tourney next year.  But to declare the careers of Goodwin and French a failure if we don't win 2 games next year is ridiculous.  Matchups, unlucky seeds and first/second round draws...  remember Oregon - a truly bad and unlucky draw for us.

But according to your standard, we then accept failure and do nothing?  Or because of the failure, fire the coach/staff and start over?  

And as much as I like French and Goodwin, both can and should fix holes in their games to deserve the pedestal you are placing them on.  In fact, I suspect neither French nor Goodwin will be our best player next year.

 

You misinterpreted my post as an indictment on the careers of Goodwin and French if they don't win some NCAA games next season. That was not my intent. They will rightly go down as two of the best players to put on a SLU uniform.

It is unfortunate this season was abruptly ended because we could have made a run at the NCAA tournament. We'll see what happens next season. I expect big things, as should everyone else on this board. 

[Clock_Tower]

4 hours ago, BilliesBy40 said:

Let me be clear, I have been thoroughly impressed with Ford’s body of work thus far at SLU. However, next year is a make or break season. Barring any injuries or other abnormalities, he has to make a run in the NCAA. Failing to win one or two NCAA tournament games over the course of the careers of Goodwin and French would be utter failure, especially with how loaded we should be next season.

Not sure it is me who misunderstood you.  You clearly said you have been impressed with Ford's body of work thus far - however.... What do you mean by make or break season?  Normally, coaches facing a make or break season are on the hot seat for being fired.   And if we make the Tourney but lose in second round, then what?  An utter failure by Ford?

[Pistol]

19 hours ago, RiseAndGrind said:

I am Social Distancing and really bored. It got me thinking - it seems like Travis Ford is mostly loved by the Billiken Faithful and hated by OK State fans who think of him as an underachieving, overpaid, bad coach.

What other coaches have been fired/hated and moved on to another school and turned it around?

Maybe it is a dumb topic but there are no sports on TV  so cut me some slack. 

Just answering your question:

-Grant at Dayton, as someone already mentioned.

-Pearl at Auburn, who I know wasn't hated everywhere but has lost jobs for various reasons and is hated by many (most?).

-McDermott at Creighton, who was never anything but mediocre at Iowa State.

-Amaker at Harvard after being fired from Michigan.

-Sampson at Houston.

-Pitino at Iona!

-Weber at K-State.

-Howland *might* have made a second straight Tournament this season at MSU, not a perennial Tournament team by any stretch.

-Same for Haith at Tulsa this season, although probably not and he's been there 6 years now and this would've been his second appearance there.

-Huggins was technically forced out at Cincinnati

Still too early to call on Crean at Georgia, Anderson at St. John's, or Alford at Nevada.

There are other cases like Dave Leitao, although I don't think you could say he "turned it around" at DePaul on his second try yet; Mike Davis, who got run off at Indiana for reasons I'll never understand, did pretty well at UAB before a down season, took Texas Southern to the NCAAs 4 times from a 1-bid conference, and now is not doing well at Detroit; Calipari, Hoiberg, and Beilein, who failed in the NBA (Beilein will find another college job soon enough); and Todd Lickliter, who is getting another chance at Evansville.

[BilliesBy40]

13 minutes ago, Clock_Tower said:

Not sure it is me who misunderstood you.  You clearly said you have been impressed with Ford's body of work thus far - however.... What do you mean by make or break season?  Normally, coaches facing a make or break season are on the hot seat for being fired.   And if we make the Tourney but lose in second round, then what?  An utter failure by Ford?

Yes, I was talking about Ford, not his players. Perhaps I could have used better words other than make or break, but I do think next season is a vital one in Ford's tenure at SLU. Next year's team will be the most talented we have had in some time. More talent, I believe, than any of the teams we had under Majerus or Crews. I expect a Sweet 16. Failure to reach that does not mean I think Ford should be fired, but I do believe it will make Ford's long term success at SLU harder to achieve. 

[Pistol]

As for Ford, I strongly believe this is a profession in which egos (and agents) and the pursuit of a big payday frequently overcome reason. Coaches leave a stable, pretty secure $1MM/year job for a $2.3MM/year job with 25x as much pressure. I'm the kind of guy that if I'm in a good, stable situation where I'm happy, have the resources and institutional support I need, and quality of life for my family, I'm not going anywhere else for any amount.

I get why guys jump at the potential of multiplying their current salary for the rest of their career, but how often does that work out? We've already discussed how many guys are safe in their power conference jobs, and it's not many. Bias aside, there's no way I'd leave a place like SLU for a program in the bottom half of a power conference.

So I hope Ford has learned that the OSUs of the world come with a lot more pressure and risk than a place like SLU, where he can keep building over the long haul, has a very supportive AD (and billionaire benefactor), has a good situation for his family, and he can keep getting a 7-figure salary extended. slu72 is right - none of us know where his head is at long-term. I just think a SLU-level program is a great place to build a long-term career and program. Few at Gonzaga is probably the best example of what's possible. It just takes time and commitment and so few (pun intended) coaches are willing to be that patient when their phone is ringing every spring.

[AnkielBreakers]

17 minutes ago, Pistol said:

Alford at Nevada.

 

Alford is a perfect example. Former point guard from a national power. He did great at Missouri State. Used it as a means to get a good job at Iowa. Was at a job where he was always compared with an Iowa legend in coaching. Got run out after doing some really impressive things, but ultimately did not live up to the imaginings of his predecessor. Went to New Mexico State where he resurrected a program and made it a national power! SHOULD HAVE STAYED and finished out his career in pride. Great fit, just like at MSU (ie. SMSU).  Instead, he chased glory at UCLA and basically got burned. Now he is back to rebuilding, and it may not work this time.

Does anyone on this board think things would work out for Ford at Kentucky? I don’t. He is a good coach and maybe even great, but it also just feels like the stars are aligning for him in St. Louis. Like he cannot go wrong here. Hopefully he can see that as well.

[slufanskip]

21 minutes ago, BilliesBy40 said:

Yes, I was talking about Ford, not his players. Perhaps I could have used better words other than make or break, but I do think next season is a vital one in Ford's tenure at SLU. Next year's team will be the most talented we have had in some time. More talent, I believe, than any of the teams we had under Majerus or Crews. I expect a Sweet 16. Failure to reach that does not mean I think Ford should be fired, but I do believe it will make Ford's long term success at SLU harder to achieve. 

and different words than utter failure. Doesn't really seem your post was misinterpreted, but more like you're backing off it. 

What is the percentage of non power 5 teams that were a 6 seed or lower (top 25) that made it to the sweet 16? If I had to guess I'd say under 25%? Maybe I'm wrong but making a sweet 16 is tough. 

[Cowboy]

46 minutes ago, Pistol said:

As for Ford, I strongly believe this is a profession in which egos (and agents) and the pursuit of a big payday frequently overcome reason. Coaches leave a stable, pretty secure $1MM/year job for a $2.3MM/year job with 25x as much pressure. I'm the kind of guy that if I'm in a good, stable situation where I'm happy, have the resources and institutional support I need, and quality of life for my family, I'm not going anywhere else for any amount.

I get why guys jump at the potential of multiplying their current salary for the rest of their career, but how often does that work out? We've already discussed how many guys are safe in their power conference jobs, and it's not many. Bias aside, there's no way I'd leave a place like SLU for a program in the bottom half of a power conference.

So I hope Ford has learned that the OSUs of the world come with a lot more pressure and risk than a place like SLU, where he can keep building over the long haul, has a very supportive AD (and billionaire benefactor), has a good situation for his family, and he can keep getting a 7-figure salary extended. slu72 is right - none of us know where his head is at long-term. I just think a SLU-level program is a great place to build a long-term career and program. Few at Gonzaga is probably the best example of what's possible. It just takes time and commitment and so few (pun intended) coaches are willing to be that patient when their phone is ringing every spring.

-if you have a way through social media to send this to CFord, please do - GREAT post

[BilliesBy40]

21 minutes ago, slufanskip said:

and different words than utter failure. Doesn't really seem your post was misinterpreted, but more like you're backing off it. 

What is the percentage of non power 5 teams that were a 6 seed or lower (top 25) that made it to the sweet 16? If I had to guess I'd say under 25%? Maybe I'm wrong but making a sweet 16 is tough. 

The only part of my original post that I thought was misinterpreted by Clock was the part referencing the careers of Goodwin and French. I was not saying failure to advance in the NCAA would mean Goodwin and French failed personally to maximize their potential at SLU. That's all. 

[willie]

34 minutes ago, AnkielBreakers said:

Alford is a perfect example. Former point guard from a national power. He did great at Missouri State. Used it as a means to get a good job at Iowa. Was at a job where he was always compared with an Iowa legend in coaching. Got run out after doing some really impressive things, but ultimately did not live up to the imaginings of his predecessor. Went to New Mexico State where he resurrected a program and made it a national power! SHOULD HAVE STAYED and finished out his career in pride. Great fit, just like at MSU (ie. SMSU).  Instead, he chased glory at UCLA and basically got burned. Now he is back to rebuilding, and it may not work this time.

Does anyone on this board think things would work out for Ford at Kentucky? I don’t. He is a good coach and maybe even great, but it also just feels like the stars are aligning for him in St. Louis. Like he cannot go wrong here. Hopefully he can see that as well.

Why do people on this board continually mention Ford and Kentucky? Just because he played there and has Kentucky roots is no reason they would knock on his door even if he showed he could win here. There would be a lot of higher profile coaches who would want that job when Cal retires if he ever retires. I love Travis and hope he stays here for a decade but I don't see him being sought after by the elite of college basketball. 

[CBFan]

58 minutes ago, Pistol said:

As for Ford, I strongly believe this is a profession in which egos (and agents) and the pursuit of a big payday frequently overcome reason. Coaches leave a stable, pretty secure $1MM/year job for a $2.3MM/year job with 25x as much pressure. I'm the kind of guy that if I'm in a good, stable situation where I'm happy, have the resources and institutional support I need, and quality of life for my family, I'm not going anywhere else for any amount.

I get why guys jump at the potential of multiplying their current salary for the rest of their career, but how often does that work out? We've already discussed how many guys are safe in their power conference jobs, and it's not many. Bias aside, there's no way I'd leave a place like SLU for a program in the bottom half of a power conference.

So I hope Ford has learned that the OSUs of the world come with a lot more pressure and risk than a place like SLU, where he can keep building over the long haul, has a very supportive AD (and billionaire benefactor), has a good situation for his family, and he can keep getting a 7-figure salary extended. slu72 is right - none of us know where his head is at long-term. I just think a SLU-level program is a great place to build a long-term career and program. Few at Gonzaga is probably the best example of what's possible. It just takes time and commitment and so few (pun intended) coaches are willing to be that patient when their phone is ringing every spring.

Excellent post Pistol, Ford has already been through the money and bright lights of a big conference and got fired.

To finish his career I think he might get a shot at Kentucky when he hits 60 and has made the big dance several seasons with several sweet 16’s under his belt.  By that time he would have made several million so why not do it if that is what he wants.

I have the feeling coach Ford will be the guy that will be the SLU coach for more than 10 years and accomplish so much playing to full houses that he won’t want to leave something he built that has never happened at SLU.

[CBFan]

8 minutes ago, willie said:

Why do people on this board continually mention Ford and Kentucky? 

Because if he makes SLU Gonzaga he is an elite coach.

Ford is a proven recruiter like coach Cal.

It sure seems reasonable to me to think this way however if Kentucky does not ever inquire and SLU is Gonzaga successful then that would be great.

[billiken_roy]

18 minutes ago, willie said:

Why do people on this board continually mention Ford and Kentucky? Just because he played there and has Kentucky roots is no reason they would knock on his door even if he showed he could win here. There would be a lot of higher profile coaches who would want that job when Cal retires if he ever retires. I love Travis and hope he stays here for a decade but I don't see him being sought after by the elite of college basketball. 

I agree.   At least not before he shows a long term pattern of great success.   Hes doing fine by what we are accustomed to, but he isnt kentuckylike yet and they would crucify him for what hes accomplished here imo.  I am betting he knows rhat as well.

[AnkielBreakers]

57 minutes ago, willie said:

Why do people on this board continually mention Ford and Kentucky? Just because he played there and has Kentucky roots is no reason they would knock on his door even if he showed he could win here. There would be a lot of higher profile coaches who would want that job when Cal retires if he ever retires. I love Travis and hope he stays here for a decade but I don't see him being sought after by the elite of college basketball. 

Because... umm... .we are going to the Final Four next year. Would have gone this year too.

[slu72]

No coach should be the first guy in line to succeed a big winner legend like coach. Let's go over the list: UCLA - Wooden. How many have tried and failed.

UNC- Smith- First guy couldn't pull it off. Daugherty couldn't do it. Williams one champship but comes the closest to Smith. 

Indiana- Booby Knight- Davis got them to a Final 4- couldn't sustain it and got canned. Archie having problems, that could put him back in the A10. 

Anyone who takes over for Calipari will have to hit the road running, if not, he'll be shown the door. 

[3star_recruit]

1 hour ago, willie said:

Why do people on this board continually mention Ford and Kentucky? Just because he played there and has Kentucky roots is no reason they would knock on his door even if he showed he could win here. There would be a lot of higher profile coaches who would want that job when Cal retires if he ever retires. I love Travis and hope he stays here for a decade but I don't see him being sought after by the elite of college basketball. 

I agree that Kentucky will be looking for somebody else but for a different reason.  Cal is only 61.  He's got at least 10 years left.  In 10 years, Coach Ford will be 60.  Something tells me Kentucky will be looking for a younger coach to take over by then. 

So we're really talking about Coach Ford leaving for a rebuilding job at a P5 program.  The same kind of rebuilding job he was already fired from.  I like our chances for Coach being around  awhile.  There's enough local talent blossoming in the 2022 and 2023 classes to make a Final Four run by staying put.

 

[willie]

35 minutes ago, slu72 said:

No coach should be the first guy in line to succeed a big winner legend like coach. Let's go over the list: UCLA - Wooden. How many have tried and failed.

UNC- Smith- First guy couldn't pull it off. Daugherty couldn't do it. Williams one champship but comes the closest to Smith. 

Indiana- Booby Knight- Davis got them to a Final 4- couldn't sustain it and got canned. Archie having problems, that could put him back in the A10. 

Anyone who takes over for Calipari will have to hit the road running, if not, he'll be shown the door. 

I agree with this but a couple of exceptions come to mind. Izzo replacing Heathcoat and Pitino replacing Crum. I'm sure there are more. 

[slufanskip]

1 hour ago, 3star_recruit said:

I agree that Kentucky will be looking for somebody else but for a different reason.  Cal is only 61.  He's got at least 10 years left.  In 10 years, Coach Ford will be 60.  Something tells me Kentucky will be looking for a younger coach to take over by then. 

So we're really talking about Coach Ford leaving for a rebuilding job at a P5 program.  The same kind of rebuilding job he was already fired from.  I like our chances for Coach being around  awhile.  There's enough local talent blossoming in the 2022 and 2023 classes to make a Final Four run by staying put.

 

Can you consistently do better at KState, Boston College, Iowa. Minn, Auburn, etc... than you can do at SLU? If you're talking taking over a Blue Blood, KY, KS, Duke, etc... then I get it but imo a coach at SLU has just as much opportunity for sustained success as a coach a mid tier P5 school

[RiseAndGrind]

2 hours ago, 3star_recruit said:

I agree that Kentucky will be looking for somebody else but for a different reason.  Cal is only 61.  He's got at least 10 years left.  In 10 years, Coach Ford will be 60.  Something tells me Kentucky will be looking for a younger coach to take over by then. 

So we're really talking about Coach Ford leaving for a rebuilding job at a P5 program.  The same kind of rebuilding job he was already fired from.  I like our chances for Coach being around  awhile.  There's enough local talent blossoming in the 2022 and 2023 classes to make a Final Four run by staying put.

 

Combining Chaifetz Arena, the Chaifetz Family, and local recruiting I honestly think Ford could be here for 10+ years.

[Major Majerus]

20 minutes ago, RiseAndGrind said:

Combining Chaifetz Arena, the Chaifetz Family, and local recruiting I honestly think Ford could be here for 10+ years.

At some point, the conversation in his home would be why he would leave.

[Compton]

Maybe Coach Ford wins a national championship at SLU and a P5 school in the same year after we join the Big East. 

On 3/17/2020 at 4:59 PM, RiseAndGrind said:

What other coaches have been fired/hated and moved on to another school and turned it around?

Not a full program turn around, but Frank Haith just had a sort of comeback year, finishing in a 3-way tie for first in the AAC with his second best record there (13-5), after obviously getting run out of MO. I don't think he's necessarily beloved, but probably bought himself some goodwill in Tulsa.

[Aquinas]

How difficult is it to go on an NCAA Tournament run? Statistically speaking the single biggest factor is your seed.
Some of this will be obvious:

A 1 Seed will have favorable matchups for 4 games. 
A 2 Seed will have favorable matchups for 3 games.
A 3 Seed will have favorable matchups for 2 games.
A 4 Seed will have favorable matchups for 2 game.
A 5 Seed will have favorable matchups for 1 game.
A 6 Seed will have favorable matchups for 1 game.
A 7 Seed will have favorable matchups for 1 game.
A 8 Seed will have favorable matchups for 1 game.

The first game spread advantage for round one is likely to be:
1 Seed – 20+ points
2 Seed – 14 points
3 Seed – 13 points
4 Seed – 7 Points
5 Seed – 3 Points
6 Seed – 2.5 Points
7 Seed – 1.5 Points
8 Seed - .5 Points

It pays of big to be in seed 3 vs 4.  The top 3 seeds face conference winners from weak conferences.  Seeds 4 plus are matching up against teams that played in or had they not won their conference tournaments would have played in.  A top 3 seed, means being a top 12 team nationally. A 4 seed still has a significant advantage in the first round, that means being a top 16 team in the nation.
Another way to look at is that there is only a one possession gap between seeds 5 and 12 in the first round games.

Second game spread advantage for the tournament group of 32 is likely to be:

1 Seed – 7 points
2 Seed – 3.5 points
3 Seed – 2 Points
4 Seed – 1 Point

Third game Sweet 16 spread advantage is likely to be:
Seed 1 – 5 points
Seed 2 – 1 point

Elite 8 Spread advantage is likely to be:
Seed 1 – 1 point.

 

This also means that about half of the games played in each bracket are likely to have one possession projected point spreads. This does not take upsets into account.

So the 1 seeds have the advantage of playing lesser teams by virtue of their matchups and they are often significantly stronger than teams just a few positions behind them in the national rankings.  This year, the difference in strength of nationally ranked teams 1 and 10, is 7 points. but difference between teams 40 and 50 is 1 point.

The bottom line is unless you are a one seed, there is nothing easy about even getting to the sweet 16. Runs are going to require some luck and likely come down to 1 or 2 key plays.

Data: I looked at one of the projected brackets and ran the Sagarin numbers to calculate the point spreads.  These numbers assume no home court advantage.  Now we know that teams that end up playing close to home, can present a home court advantage which is typically worth 3 points.

Without looking at specific teams, after seeding, I would say the second biggest factor is where you play.  If it is close to home with strong support of the fans attending the game, that can be at least as big a factor as the seeding, especially for the middle seeds in the tournament.

For a team to regularly make the Sweet 16, it needs to regularly be among top 16 teams in the nation. Even then it isn’t a sure thing.  While some team will make a Sweet 16 from a lower position, it isn’t surprising that an 8 seed is in that group.  But having one of the 8 seeds make it and being able to project which of the 8 seeds is another matter.