The Wiz's Final Wrap Up For 2020

[The Wiz]

Here is a recap of the season....a little earlier than I expected to do it....but hopefully there are enough grades. stats and analysis to ease the pain of no more basketball till next season

First let's start with my preseason comments...I forecasted based on 30 games ...no Maryville.

Nov 3 2019

Best case scenario (everything goes right....Players develop, team gels early,  the press works  , we hit shots including foul shots and the board gets together for a blue kool-aid party..........we finish 22-8  and 14-4 in conf for a 2nd place finish...possible NCAA bid

 

Here is how the season looks to play out....A good start  leads to some early kool aid drinking and NCAA talk....then reality hits when we play Seton Hall....this leads to a downturn as play turns mixed going forward... at this point the  board declares the season is over.  Optimism rears its head again as conf play begins ...a weak Jan and the talk shifts to 20-21....but then we gel and have a good Feb which leads to sugar plum fairies and A-10 tourney championship  talk...the board dreams of a a miracle repeat.

Bottomline....All of the above scenarios are based on how the computer sees the game patterns playing out. Prepare for a roller coaster ride ...complete with some vicious blowouts with the Bills on both ends of those blowouts. Also some very close games....hair pulling games...games that will end in overtime...We win some of these games because of our superior depth and lose some because we can't buy a foul shot. This season will not be for the faint of heart. The pattern has been that no matter what we have in players and talent , Ford maximizes it by Feb.  This year should be no different

Enjoy the ride....Go Bills

3/13/ 20....I hit the forecast but was too optimistic in conf play...had we won another 2 games as forecast ...we would have finished 2nd and we would have had an NCAA bid.

Next up are the 3 report card forecasts....from 3 different posts during the season...preseason,  real data (after 8th games)  and preconference (before the 1st conf game...  dated Jan 1)

Round 1

The Wiz's Preseason Forecast 2019-2020

By The Wiz, November 3 in Billikens.com Main Board

A-10

Dav........................B+......... NCAA  35% or   NIT 80% 

VCU.......................B+.......... NCAA  35% or  NIT 80%  

Day..........................B............NIT  50%

RI.............................B............NIT...50%

St. B.........................B............NIT...50%

Rich.........................B-

SLU..........................B-

Duq.........................C+

GM..........................C+

LaS.........................C

UMass....................C

GW...........................C-

St. J..........................C-

Ford...........................D

 

Round 2

The Wiz's A-10 Forecast with Real Data

By The Wiz, December 10 in Billikens.com Main Board

 

 

.................................Overall......................Trending..................................................SOS.....................................................Curr record

Day..............................A..................................A+.......................................................B...............NCAA....................................7-1

VCU..............................A-................................B+.......................................................D+............NCAA......................................7-2

Duq..............................B+...............................B+........................................................F..............NIT............................................8-0

Rich.............................B+................................A-.........................................................D+...........NIT...........................................8-1

SLU..............................B..................................A-.........................................................D..............67% NIT...................................8-1

Dav..............................B...................................B-........................................................A-..............67%  NIT..................................4-5

RI..................................B................................B+..........................................................B+..............67% NIT.................................6-3

LaS...............................B-................................B...........................................................B+.............................................................5-3

GM...............................C+................................B+..........................................................F+...........................................................10-1

St. B.............................C+.................................B............................................................D+............................................................5-4

UMass.........................C...................................D+..........................................................C...............................................................5-5

Ford.............................D+.................................C-............................................................F-....easiest sched ITN...........................5-3

St. J.............................D+..................................F+.............................................................B.............................................................2-8

GW...............................D.....................................C.............................................................F..............................................................5-5

 

Round 3

.................................Overall......................Trending..................................................SOS.....................................................Curr record

Day..............................A.................................A+..........................................................B-.......NCAA bid......................................11-2

VCU.............................B+...............................A-...........................................................C-....35% NCAA...85% NIT......................10-3

Dav...............................B+...............................B-..........................................................A-.......50% NIT..........................................6-6

SLU..............................B..................................A-.........................................................C-........15% NCAA...50% NIT....................11-2

RI.................................B..................................B+........................................................B+.........50% NIT.........................................8-3

Rich..............................B..................................B-........................................................C+........20%NIT..........................................10-3

Duq..............................B...................................C..........................................................F+......15% NIT.........................................10-2

St. B.............................B-..................................B-.........................................................C-.......10 % NIT..........................................8-5

GM...............................C+.................................B..........................................................F+.......10% NIT..........................................11-2

LaS...............................C+................................B...........................................................D-........10% NIT..........................................9-3

UMass..........................C..................................D+.........................................................B-...............................................................6-7

St. J..............................D+................................D+.........................................................B+..............................................................3-9

GW.................................D.................................C-...........................................................F-....14th easiest ITN...............................6-7

Ford...............................D.................................D-...........................................................F-...2nd easiest ITN...................................6-6

 

Teams with the greatest  chance to exceed the variance on the upside

SLU....the difference could mean an NCAA bid

GM & LaS....the difference could mean an outside chance at an NIT bid

GW....the difference could make them a spoiler

Teams with the greatest chance to exceed on the downside

Dav...the difference could knock them out of a decent chance to make the NIT

Duq....the difference could wipe out their small chance to make the NIT

UMass....the difference could turn a 500 season into a bad one

Finally ...one last point...How could a team ( Fordham ) with the 2nd easiest  schedule in D1 be only 6-6 at this point...quite an accomplishment...I guess that is why even though they are a D team they are still trending down .

Bottom line ....Could be a promising year for The Bills if they continue to improve and play to their potential ( A- )

Go Bills.

And finally ...The Final

3/13/20

Round 4...The Final

...........................Overall.......Trending.......Variance from the Final grade...  Preseason.......8th game.......Preconference

Day........................A+.................A+......................................................................+4.......................+1....................+1

Rich.......................B+..................A.........................................................................+2.......................0.....................+1

RI............................B+.................B+.......................................................................+1......................+1.....................+1

SLU.........................B...................A-.........................................................................+1.......................0.......................0

Dav.........................B....................B+.........................................................................-1........................0......................-1

VCU.......................B.....................C............................................................................-1.......................-2......................-1

Duq........................B-....................C+...........................................................................+1.....................-2.....................-2

St. B......................B-.......................C...........................................................................-1.....................+1......................0

GM........................C.......................C.............................................................................-1.....................-1.......................-1

LaS........................C.......................C..............................................................................0......................-2......................-1

UMass...................C.......................B-.............................................................................0.......................0........................0

Ford.......................D+.....................D+............................................................................+1......................0........................+1

GW..........................D+....................F+............................................................................-1.......................+1......................+1

St. J........................D.......................D-..............................................................................-2.......................-1.......................-2

Within 2 notches.............................................................................................................93%.....................100%..................100%

Within 1 notch..................................................................................................................79%.......................79%....................86%

The notches are a variance from the Final grade....as an example...SLU's  preseason was a B- ...they finished overall as a B...therefore they were a +1....on the other hand...St. J started as a C- but finished as a D...therefore they got a -2.....a zero means you matched your final score at some point in the season.

And of course,  we finish with Team stat report card with Top 100 ITN

 

..............................SLU.........................SLU......

..............................OFF..........................DEF...............

PPG.........................C+...........................B+..............

FG%.........................B.............................A-...............

3Pt%........................C+...........................B..............

FT%.........................F-... WITN.............................

Reb.........................A...............................B........

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF rebs = opp reb

Change from last game (UP means improvement ...Down means worse).......UP ....Def 3P%.....DOWN.....none

Report card notes....A very nice defensive report card ...not bad for a team that started shaky on D.....Offense  not bad either sans FTs...we needed 7 more FTM to climb out of the cellar.

 Bills  Off Reb...A+...16th  ITN.....unchanged

Assts...Y Collins....37th.....up

Rebs.....French..20th.......Goodwin...23rd....up  and down...French wins the rebound battle by 2 extra rebs for the season This was a close battle all year.

Off Reb....French ...28th...Goodwin...32nd...down and up

Def reb......Goodwin.....35th ....French ...42nd.....up and up

Stls......Goodwin...27th ...up

Blks.....French....17th....up

Dbl-Dbl.. Goodwin...19th and French  41st......down and up

WWN2D..Stay healthy...and get ready for the best year since RM

Bottom line...This wraps up the year for me... I will still be on the board from time to time...especially with baseball on hold.   Be well all and start hoarding blue Kool-Aid for next season.   20-21 will be our year

Go Bills

[billikenbill]

Thanks, The Wiz. Well done, Sir!

[Old guy]

Hi Wiz, when you make a preseason forecast you plainly cannot anticipate that two of the mainstay players of the team will become sidelined before entering conference play. You clearly mentioned that the forecast was a best case scenario with all going well. I think you were NOT too optimistic, I think your preliminary forecast was quite correct, with the exception of the absence of Jimerson and Thatch, which you could not possibly have anticipated.

I think the amazing fact of this season is that we were largely able to cover the loss of Jimerson and Thatch through the development of other players. As a result our team will be a lot stronger and more capable next season when Jimerson and Thatch rejoin playing status. I am on record about my views on the performance we can expect from Thatch next season, no need to  repeat them here.

So, wonderful preliminary forecast, and a very nice and surprising season full of developments. We probably did a LOT better than could have been expected after the loss of Jimerson and Thatch this season. Thank you for what you do, it is wonderful work.

[The Wiz]

10 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Hi Wiz, when you make a preseason forecast you plainly cannot anticipate that two of the mainstay players of the team will become sidelined before entering conference play. You clearly mentioned that the forecast was a best case scenario with all going well. I think you were NOT too optimistic, I think your preliminary forecast was quite correct, with the exception of the absence of Jimerson and Thatch, which you could not possibly have anticipated.

I think the amazing fact of this season is that we were largely able to cover the loss of Jimerson and Thatch through the development of other players. As a result our team will be a lot stronger and more capable next season when Jimerson and Thatch rejoin playing status. I am on record about my views on the performance we can expect from Thatch next season, no need to  repeat them here.

So, wonderful preliminary forecast, and a very nice and surprising season full of developments. We probably did a LOT better than could have been expected after the loss of Jimerson and Thatch this season. Thank you for what you do, it is wonderful work.

First, the computer did not know Jimerson and Thatch would be injured...But it does figure there will be injuries ...just as it does for other teams.  When there are injuries there are new players who come in and pick up the slack ...sometimes it evens out and sometimes it doesn't .  In the Bills case it did ...with more playing time for Hargrove and Perkins....to use the phrase  from my original post...best case scenario ...this truly was the best case scenario...lose 2 key players  and come in on target with a successful season...22-8.

Second , this is not just a preliminary forecast...it is ongoing forecast using real data after the preseason round one prediction.  I am amazed that on the preseason there was a 93% success rate. The only miss on that forecast  was Dayton, who the computer had as a good team but not great....but again it was preseason...As soon as the computer saw just a few games ( 8 ) it immediately moved Dayton to an A.. Back to the Bills...it was kind of the same thing. The Bills started out as a B- team ...on the 8th game it moved them to a B and then from the 8th game on till the end we stayed at B.  We were a B when Jimerson and Thatch played and we stayed at B  after they were hurt. One last thing ...even though I show 3 rounds , those that read my posts know that it is ongoing process....I usually put the grade in every spread thread post. The 3 Rounds are just key points in the season to stop and take a temperature to see how we are doing vs the A-10...plus are we on track for post season.  ...A- or higher usually means Dancing.

After I make forecasts , I try to go over them and find what is right and what I missed.  I critique it ...then tweak it.  In the off season , I rework the model...this year the big change was 3 pt shooting ...3 P % down substantially.  However as the season progressed,  3pt shooting improved.   It changed the game a lot.  Next year it will be down again ...but not as much.  By the 21-22 season things should be stable enough to make the forecasts even more accurate.

Glad you read and like my stuff.  Looking forward to a great year for Team Blue.

[billikenbill]

The Wiz,

I've been tweaking my model over the last week and in looking ahead to next season, I've run this simulation 1100 times and the data is leading to a surprising result.

Regardless of how many times I run it, it keeps coming up with the Billikens having a record of... 40-0!!! Yes, my model says, if we avoid major injuries, suspensions, S-3, and so on, we win it all!!

OK, in the interest of full disclosure, the model comes from my imagination after watching all the highlight clips from the season that just ended so maybe it's skewed a bit. I do see next season as one which will be full of "Jam Time!" and "Whistle, foul, count the basket!" calls. Let me just say that if we do go 40-0, I hope someone will say, "Bang, he got it!"

[slu72]

44 minutes ago, billikenbill said:

The Wiz,

I've been tweaking my model over the last week and in looking ahead to next season, I've run this simulation 1100 times and the data is leading to a surprising result.

Regardless of how many times I run it, it keeps coming up with the Billikens having a record of... 40-0!!! Yes, my model says, if we avoid major injuries, suspensions, S-3, and so on, we win it all!!

OK, in the interest of full disclosure, the model comes from my imagination after watching all the highlight clips from the season that just ended so maybe it's skewed a bit. I do see next season as one which will be full of "Jam Time!" and "Whistle, foul, count the basket!" calls. Let me just say that if we do go 40-0, I hope someone will say, "Bang, he got it!"

Andy, if we go 40-0 you'll be elected to the Bills HOF. 

[billikenbill]

1 hour ago, slu72 said:

Andy, if we go 40-0 you'll be elected to the Bills HOF. 

That would be a great honor! Can you imagine my disappointment if we lose the opener then reel off 39 straight?

[Cowboy]

-great stuff, Wiz - one question, your line on The Bills versus SVU on a neutral court? guessing SVU by 6 but all it represents is a missed opportunity versus my guy as we would have won

[The Wiz]

If the Bills played Day today in Brooklyn....it would be Day over the Bills by 8.'

Of course you know , there would have been 1 more game before we played Day.

St. B was favored by 4 over GM....Had St. B won by double digits and VCU won their game over UMass...then...

VCU would have played Day.... and we would have played the Bonnies

If Day  beats VCU in a close game and we crush the Bonnies again by double digits...

then the Day vs Bills game becomes close...Day would still be favored...but it would be close.

Maybe this time the Day player misses in OT and we win...

Sadly , we will never know.

[Cowboy]

-thank you, we wouldn't have needed OT to get the win

[Old guy]

Do not abandon all hope, keep a tiny sliver of hope alive that this thing will pass over promptly and that the tournaments will be played starting where they were left. Is this possible, yes, is it likely to happen, probably not...