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10 hours ago, courtside said:

3,138 U.S. deaths by today's count. Almost 20% within the past 24 hours. Remember when South Korea and the United States had their first cases on the same day? South Korea has had 158 deaths thus far. 

No country should compare their results to South Korea.  South Korea was better prepared for this than any other country.  That preparedness was the result of half century of being under constant threat of a biological attack from North Korea.  They were able to use their years of biological attack preparedness drills to directly respond to this situation.  

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33 minutes ago, courtside said:

Peak isn't coming for a while. You keep touting 26,000 dead as if it is a good or great number. It's not. The United States and South Korea had first cases on the same day. The responses since by both have been very telling. 

 

For the country as a whole the peak is projected to be 14 days away.  The projected death toll has been dropping over the last several days, at least according to this model.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

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29 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

yet you seem unfazed by the 10's of thousands more that die each year from the flu.  

so roy, are you suggesting that the trump administration has over-reacted to something that is less dangerous than the flu?

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Brian, the military teaches you to root for the best outcome, while concurrently preparing for the worst. There is no one here who is advocating for more mortality, more infected patients. We want competence, complete support for the medical community, and we want it NOW.

Everyone needs to study the South Korea response, and post Covid countries need to incorporate as many best practices that SK brought into action as possible. You can’t improve a process without review and realignment of your weak practices.

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1 minute ago, Sheltiedave said:

Brian, the military teaches you to root for the best outcome, while concurrently preparing for the worst. There is no one here who is advocating for more mortality, more infected patients. We want competence, complete support for the medical community, and we want it NOW.

Everyone needs to study the South Korea response, and post Covid countries need to incorporate as many best practices that SK brought into action as possible. You can’t improve a process without review and realignment of your weak practices.

How do you think government cell phone tracking of citizens and semi regular biological warfare drills would go over in this country?  Is that the kind of country we should want to live in to be better prepared for a once in a century type of pandemic?  

Those are just some of the questions you have to answer if you want a South Korea type of response to the next pandemic like this.

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1 hour ago, Old guy said:

Well guys and gilrs, not all is dark and threatening in this world. I just got a copy of an article to be published by Elsenvier, which, despite its small size, shows a good reduction of the virus load in Covid-19 patients treated with Hydroxychloroquine. They also tested combination therapy with Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin (a commonly use URI antibiotic derived from Erythromycin) that shows a much greater reduction of the viral load in these patients. The link to the article's PDF is here:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920300996

The central concept is (as is the case in most infections) that the lower the viral load the body has to fight, the easier it is for the body to bring it under control and heal. This is good enough to treat people actively with this combination of meds and should help reduce the death toll significantly. This is a real study with controls, and even if it is small it is a proper study with very good results.

There is light out coming into the tunnel for a change, we MAY be coming close to the other end. As a word of caution, there are patients that arrive for care in a very advanced stage, many of these patients may die despite all therapeutic intervention attempted.

Do not pop the bubbly yet, but it might be nice if you put your bottle in the fridge. We may be getting closer to controlling this bug. Again this here is a proper study with very promising results. Remember there are no guarantees in health care, people die despite all attempts to achieve the opposite outcome. However, this looks good, at least to me, as of now.

AnkielBreakers. This is a nice attempt, based upon your estimates and compromises of data picked from a field full of unknowns. You may or may not be correct, but this will depend upon a large number of factors. When it is all said and  done, the total of  dead bodies counted and confirmed to have died of this disease will tell the real story. You all know my estimate. The article linked above may help in keeping the death toll a lot lower than that. It is  wait and see now.

I’m not a clinical researcher, but working in pharmaceutical drug development, I’m probably more familiar than the average person. I’ve always been told that a double-blind, RCT is the gold standard for clinical trials. This study doesn’t fit that bill as it is not randomized. Additionally, I’m concerned about the methodology of removing the three patients from the study who were moved to the ICU. Like I said, I’m not a clinical researcher so don’t know if that is common practice, but it did cause me to raise my eyebrows, as a pharmaceutical researcher.  I realize that patient transfer to the ICU rendered the researchers unable to test them further for the virus, but I wish that would have been more clearly stated in the results/discussion. However, this study does show that more testing is worthwhile. I will be interested to see if further study confirms these results. Like OG says...don’t pop the bubbly yet (and DON’T buy chloroquine from a fish tank place and OD on it as some have done; and don’t hoard these drugs—there are patients who depend on them routinely) but data supporting a  therapy for COVID 19 is good news. My scientist hat causes me to be skeptical, though. 

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27 minutes ago, ACE said:

so roy, are you suggesting that the trump administration has over-reacted to something that is less dangerous than the flu?

no i am asking why the flu and other health scenarios with equal or greater consequences never got the same hysteria and panic from the msm and politicians and the medical community?

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19 minutes ago, brianstl said:

How do you think government cell phone tracking of citizens and semi regular biological warfare drills would go over in this country?  Is that the kind of country we should want to live in to be better prepared for a once in a century type of pandemic?  

Those are just some of the questions you have to answer if you want a South Korea type of response to the next pandemic like this.

our "friends" on the left are all about the government having more control over our lives.  they would love to have cell phone tracking capabilities.

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4 minutes ago, rgbilliken said:

I’m not a clinical researcher, but working in pharmaceutical drug development, I’m probably more familiar than the average person. I’ve always been told that a double-blind, RCT is the gold standard for clinical trials. This study doesn’t fit that bill as it is not randomized. Additionally, I’m concerned about the methodology of removing the three patients from the study who were moved to the ICU. Like I said, I’m not a clinical researcher so don’t know if that is common practice, but it did cause me to raise my eyebrows, as a pharmaceutical researcher.  I realize that patient transfer to the ICU rendered the researchers unable to test them further for the virus, but I wish that would have been more clearly stated in the results/discussion. However, this study does show that more testing is worthwhile. I will be interested to see if further study confirms these results. Like OG says...don’t pop the bubbly yet (and DON’T buy chloroquine from a fish tank place and OD on it as some have done; and don’t hoard these drugs—there are patients who depend on them routinely) but data supporting a  therapy for COVID 19 is good news. My scientist hat causes me to be skeptical, though. 

There are smart people on this Board. 

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16 minutes ago, brianstl said:

How do you think government cell phone tracking of citizens and semi regular biological warfare drills would go over in this country?  Is that the kind of country we should want to live in to be better prepared for a once in a century type of pandemic?  

Those are just some of the questions you have to answer if you want a South Korea type of response to the next pandemic like this.

I think we can borrow some things from South Korea that would’ve improved our response without going all-in on their approach. The main thing I took away was that data is really important and our situation with not testing enough people at the beginning of this is going to cost a lot of lives and is going to have a large economic cost. I don’t know the logistics of improving testing availability; maybe with the US being so spread out with various local governments all doing different things will be a barrier, too. But it seems clear that a strong centralized approach with a huge emphasis on testing followed by quarantine of more targeted individuals based on data, like what South Korea did, would be a good start next time this happens. 

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Just now, rgbilliken said:

I think we can borrow some things from South Korea that would’ve improved our response without going all-in on their approach. The main thing I took away was that data is really important and our situation with not testing enough people at the beginning of this is going to cost a lot of lives and is going to have a large economic cost. I don’t know the logistics of improving testing availability; maybe with the US being so spread out with various local governments all doing different things will be a barrier, too. But it seems clear that a strong centralized approach with a huge emphasis on testing followed by quarantine of more targeted individuals based on data, like what South Korea did, would be a good start next time this happens. 

i am out of reactions for today but this is an excellent post by rg

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51 minutes ago, brianstl said:

No country should compare their results to South Korea.  South Korea was better prepared for this than any other country.  That preparedness was the result of half century of being under constant threat of a biological attack from North Korea.  They were able to use their years of biological attack preparedness drills to directly respond to this situation.  

It's disingenous at best to not note the disastrous U S. Response. 

The United States ignored WHO test guidelines used by other countries to try to create their own test which failed and took precious time. The U.S. was also slow to implement the private sector as well as locally developed testing even though in some cases some were being developed. When outbreaks were occurring on cruise ships and the state of Washington, the Federal government did nothing, as did other states. Very slow on testing and tracing.  

Supplies and supply chain have been a disaster. Even though invoking the Defense Production Act was asked for weeks and weeks sooner, the President finally did so this past weekend to ramp up private sector involvement for needed equipment and supplies. This is all two months late. On and on and on. It isn't political to say matter of factly that the response has been slow, less effective, with repeated mistakes that could have been avoided. It is what it is.

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

no i am asking why the flu and other health scenarios with equal or greater consequences never got the same hysteria and panic from the msm and politicians and the medical community?

So then you're thinking the Trump administration should have taken similar or more extreme measures for the flu like they have taken for corona because the flu is more dangerous?

By your logic, the Trump administration has either over-reacted to corona or under-reacted to the flu.

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3 minutes ago, rgbilliken said:

I think we can borrow some things from South Korea that would’ve improved our response without going all-in on their approach. The main thing I took away was that data is really important and our situation with not testing enough people at the beginning of this is going to cost a lot of lives and is going to have a large economic cost. I don’t know the logistics of improving testing availability; maybe with the US being so spread out with various local governments all doing different things will be a barrier, too. But it seems clear that a strong centralized approach with a huge emphasis on testing followed by quarantine of more targeted individuals based on data, like what South Korea did, would be a good start next time this happens. 

-I hate to weigh in on this thread in a serious way, but have a couple of questions perhaps you can answer, i am not a scientist.....1-if this virus was newly discovered in December does that mean tests that existed at that point would not have identified it? 2-if #1 is yes, so would a new test have to be created to identify this virus? and 3-I hear the sequence of the virus was identified in a few weeks, is that the new normal in the medical community?

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4 minutes ago, courtside said:

It's disingenous at best to not note the disastrous U S. Response. 

The United States ignored WHO test guidelines used by other countries to try to create their own test which failed and took precious time. The U.S. was also slow to implement the private sector as well as locally developed testing even though in some cases some were being developed. When outbreaks were occurring on cruise ships and the state of Washington, the Federally gov did nothing, as did other states. Very slow on testing and tracing.  

Supplies and supply chain has been a disaster. Even though invoking the Defense Production Act was asked for weeks and weeks sooner, the President finally did so this past weekend to ramp up private sector involvement for needed equipment and supplies. This is all two months late. On and on and on. It isn't political to say matter of factly that the response has been slow, less effective, with repeated mistakes that could have been avoided. It is what it is.

 

 

 

yet it was responsible for democratic leaders to call the President a racist for his early travel ban with China..... got it.....

 

Yet for that sensible decision — in defiance of the World Health Organization — he was criticized by Democrats such as Joe Biden as xenophobic, and by China as racist.

“This is no time for Donald Trump’s record of hysteria and xenophobia — hysterical xenophobia — and fearmongering,” said Biden the day after the travel restrictions were imposed.

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2 minutes ago, courtside said:

It's disingenous at best to not note the disastrous U S. Response. 

The United States ignored WHO test guidelines used by other countries to try to create their own test which failed and took precious time. The U.S. was also slow to implement the private sector as well as locally developed testing even though in some cases some were being developed. When outbreaks were occurring on cruise ships and the state of Washington, the Federally gov did nothing, as did other states. Very slow on testing and tracing.  

Supplies and supply chain has been a disaster. Even though invoking the Defense Production Act was asked for weeks and weeks sooner, the President finally did so this past weekend to ramp up private sector involvement for needed equipment and supplies. This is all two months late. On and on and on. It isn't political to say matter of factly that the response has been slow, less effective, with repeated mistakes that could have been avoided. It is what it is.

 

 

 

I don't think any politician took this seriously enough early on and that the US response should have been much better.  That said, this country has done much better dealing with this virus than the countries in Europe as a whole.  Could we have done better?  A definite yes.  Has it been the complete disaster some what to make it out to be? No.

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Cowboy said:

-I hate to weigh in on this thread in a serious way, but have a couple of questions perhaps you can answer, i am not a scientist.....1-if this virus was newly discovered in December does that mean tests that existed at that point would not have identified it? 2-if #1 is yes, so would a new test have to be created to identify this virus? and 3-I hear the sequence of the virus was identified in a few weeks, is that the new normal in the medical community?

To be honest, I am not a virology expert (I work on pharmaceuticals and don’t have expertise in infectious disease or microbiology) so take my answers with a grain of salt. I do work alongside virology experts; the company I work at actually helped develop a test that detects COVID-19 in 45 min and requires minimal microbiology skill.

1&2- equipment was preexisting to ID the virus, but rapid testing needed to be developed. 
3-Rapid sequencing is indeed the new normal. Pretty cool. We have a DNA sequencer on-site but I don’t think it is that advanced. 
 

EDIT: when I tested the link above after posting, it didn’t work and kept sending me back to Billikens.com. The below might work?

  https://www.biomerieux.com/en/biomerieux-receives-emergency-use-authorization-biofirer-covid-19-test 

Edited by rgbilliken
Updated link

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This was all started by Roger Goodell. /thread

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20 minutes ago, ACE said:

So then you're thinking the Trump administration should have taken similar or more extreme measures for the flu like they have taken for corona because the flu is more dangerous?

By your logic, the Trump administration has either over-reacted to corona or under-reacted to the flu.

no my b!tch is not with reactions specific to what should have been done other than reaction by the press to drive a hysteria panic.    i have said repeatedly that i am not understating the virus i just want to know why the msm went out if it's way to drive the panic instead of a lesser approach that would have kept the public's heads more level.   why the need for the panic when similar situations in results happen all the time and calmer heads prevail.   

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I'm continue to be of the opinion that our politicians and leaders did not take this seriously enough early on and too many ordinary citizens are still not taking this seriously enough still today. 

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5 minutes ago, slufan13 said:

I'm continue to be of the opinion that our politicians and leaders did not take this seriously enough early on and too many ordinary citizens are still not taking this seriously enough still today. 

Congress was totally consumed with impeachment/trial when the virus was exploding in China.

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Most people don’t realize this, but there is a three month window twice a year where companies cannot get large orders for PPE filled in the US because nuke power plants shut down for their annual refueling and maintenance periods. They vacuum up a vast majority of the Tyvek from all national and international suppliers. 
We are at the beginning of the Florida outages, with Arizona and California plants not far behind. They start in the southernmost plants, and work their way to the Midwest.
In the early fall, the northern plants start their outage cycle, working from the northernmost first, into the Midwest.

We placed an order in December for 12000 Tyvek, have received 2000, and probably won’t see the rest until November if we are lucky. Booties, overbooties, nitrile gloves, sleevettes, face shield, full tyvek.,,all gone.

The Trump administration is representing they have so many needed supplies coming that they will send the surplus overseas. They better stock our hospitals to exploding with supplies before they do that ill considered statement of action.

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10 minutes ago, Sheltiedave said:

Most people don’t realize this, but there is a three month window twice a year where companies cannot get large orders for PPE filled in the US because nuke power plants shut down for their annual refueling and maintenance periods. They vacuum up a vast majority of the Tyvek from all national and international suppliers. 
We are at the beginning of the Florida outages, with Arizona and California plants not far behind. They start in the southernmost plants, and work their way to the Midwest.
In the early fall, the northern plants start their outage cycle, working from the northernmost first, into the Midwest.

We placed an order in December for 12000 Tyvek, have received 2000, and probably won’t see the rest until November if we are lucky. Booties, overbooties, nitrile gloves, sleevettes, face shield, full tyvek.,,all gone.

The Trump administration is representing they have so many needed supplies coming that they will send the surplus overseas. They better stock our hospitals to exploding with supplies before they do that ill considered statement of action.

your base of knowledge is incredible.   

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