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19 minutes ago, dlarry said:

I think cases in general are underreported at a much higher rate than underreported deaths.

It isn't an either or. Many people have died at home due to COVID-19 without tests or care. Some say the total deaths due to COVID-19 are 50% underreported.

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2 minutes ago, courtside said:

I’ve provided many credible sources and data in this thread and I would be happy to provide more. How is that less than 26k deaths Brian? 

I never said I thought there would be less than 26,000 deaths.  Reading comprehension does appear to be an issue for you.

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4 minutes ago, courtside said:

I’ve provided many credible sources and data in this thread and I would be happy to provide more. How is that less than 26k deaths Brian?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/

I keep forgetting that Courtside decides who is a credible source in this thread. It would be much easier for all of us if you would just list who is credible and who isnt.

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2 minutes ago, slusam said:

I keep forgetting that Courtside decides who is a credible source in this thread. It would be much easier for all of us if you would just list who is credible and who isnt.

Credible sources...

1. Old guy

2. Dustin Diamond 

3. Ricky Henderson

4. Billy and Benny McCrary (aka the worlds fattest twins)

bf85f461c80ef95b4fd26f70bf185554.jpg

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5 minutes ago, slusam said:

I keep forgetting that Courtside decides who is a credible source in this thread. It would be much easier for all of us if you would just list who is credible and who isnt.

That's an easy one.  The credible source is Europe.  We had an example of a large country who shutdown early and tested (Germany) and others that didn't (virtually every other Western power).  Our situation looks a lot like Italy and Spain and bears very resemblance to Germany.  All you had to do was read European media and it was a virtual forecast of what happened here two weeks later.

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2 minutes ago, dlarry said:

Credible sources...

1. Old guy

2. Dustin Diamond 

3. Ricky Henderson

4. Billy and Benny McCrary (aka the worlds fattest twins)

bf85f461c80ef95b4fd26f70bf185554.jpg

I have a twin brother and one of my friends used to call us the McCrary brothers even though we were thin at the time. Thanks for the laugh.

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2 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

That's an easy one.  The credible source is Europe.  We had an example of a large country who shutdown early and tested (Germany) and others that didn't (virtually every other Western power).  Our situation looks a lot like Italy and Spain and bears very resemblance to Germany.  All you had to do was read European media and it was a virtual forecast of what happened here two weeks later.

Germany and Switzerland basically had the same responses and response timeline.  Switzerland has actually tested more people on a per capita basis than Germany.  The Swiss have a higher morbidity rate than the US and Germany has a remarkably low morbidity rate.  Why is that?  Well a huge part of that is because in Germany the virus up to this point has not spread among seniors at the rate it has in the rest of the world.  

Cuomo's order forcing senior facilities to take COVID patients is a major reason New York's death rate is so high. 

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30 minutes ago, kshoe said:

To me it's less about the messenger than the message. Are there particular statistics or facts in that article that you find to be inaccurate or so materially flawed to change the conclusion that young people generally don't die from this virus while old people do?

In 2019, about 8,000 Americans died per day, on average. So 720,000 would have died during March and April, corona or no corona. I'doubt the data is fully available but it would be really interesting to see how many people in total died this past March and April. Meaning, how many people that died from corona may have died from something else? Or, if corona deaths are being "vastly" under reported how many total deaths did we have and the difference can be attributable to corona plus the randomness of any given month.

And, for me, it’s about both. If the messenger has a long history of not being credible or worse, (and he does) the message doesn’t get viewed.

Clay Travis compared COVID-19 to the flu, car accidents, said it only affected people above 70, 

He chose money over morality when he was broke, 32, and decided to play a role to prey upon the fears of racists, and more. That may be okay with you, but it isn’t with me. He tried and tried to get hires by ESPN and didn’t. He was hired by a local Fox affiliate and decided to play a character. (Clay’s a life long Democrat, worked for Gore and others, voted Obama twice, his wife a big Hillary Clinton supporter) 

He has promoted alt right groups, lended support to rhe Charlottesville White Supremacists, and others. He was approached to do a show that would be part sophomoric and part extreme right politically. 

Enabling and condoning this type of trash and supporting minority student athletes at the same time is quite the trick. But hey the money is better. 

Get a credible person or source and I will take a look at whatever it is. 

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54 minutes ago, courtside said:

It isn't an either or. Many people have died at home due to COVID-19 without tests or care. Some say the total deaths due to COVID-19 are 50% underreported.

A couple of recent stories supported by research suggest that the number of excess deaths (deaths above normal mortality for a given period) from March-early April was approximately 15,000 or twice the number of COVID19 deaths during that same period. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/04/28/analysis-us-deaths-from-covid-19-could-be-significantly-higher-than-reported-infographic/#10e3551c5437

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/04/27/covid-19-death-toll-undercounted/?arc404=true

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4 minutes ago, moytoy12 said:

A couple of recent stories supported by research suggest that the number of excess deaths (deaths above normal mortality for a given period) from March-early April was approximately 15,000 or twice the number of COVID19 deaths during that same period. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/04/28/analysis-us-deaths-from-covid-19-could-be-significantly-higher-than-reported-infographic/#10e3551c5437

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/04/27/covid-19-death-toll-undercounted/?arc404=true

The total both those reports are using for their COVID death total during that time period are well below the official death count now for that time period because they do not include the more than 3,700 deaths that were added to the count on April 14.  When those are added to the total and you adjust for additional non-COVID deaths due to avoiding medical care because of fear of COVID, the current reported deaths from COVID are in line with the increase in the total number of deaths for that time period.

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2 hours ago, kshoe said:

https://www.outkickthecoverage.com/studies-coronavirus-less-deadly-more-common-than-experts-believed/

This is pretty much where I'm at. Young people need to get back to work. Old people need to stay home. 

2 of the studies (the west coast studies) have been criticized for faulty assumptions and basic mathematical errors.

However, I think the overarching problem with his suggestion is segregating the young (<45) from the old (>45) and the very old (>65).  In theory it seems possible, but in reality, I don't see it playing out that way.  

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6 minutes ago, brianstl said:

The total both those reports are using for their COVID death total during that time period are well below the official death count now for that time period because they do not include the more than 3,700 deaths that were added to the count on April 14.  When those are added to the total and you adjust for additional non-COVID deaths due to avoiding medical care because of fear of COVID, the current reported deaths from COVID are in line with the increase in the total number of deaths for that time period.

Per https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ and the National Center for Health Statistics, the death total as of April 4 was approximately 10k.  If excess deaths for the relevant time period is ~ 15k, then it's conceivable that there was up to a 50% undercount for that time period. 

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10 minutes ago, moytoy12 said:

2 of the studies (the west coast studies) have been criticized for faulty assumptions and basic mathematical errors.

However, I think the overarching problem with his suggestion is segregating the young (<45) from the old (>45) and the very old (>65).  In theory it seems possible, but in reality, I don't see it playing out that way.  

Honestly, that's where self selection has to come in. The Government should open it back up and make it clear that the younger and healthier you are the less chance there is you will die. If people in that middle age range or those with pre-existing conditions want to stay home and not work then so be it but let the people that want to work go do it. Yes there will be people that abuse the system and there will be inequities, but its far better than telling EVERYONE to stay home. 

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12 minutes ago, moytoy12 said:

Per https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ and the National Center for Health Statistics, the death total as of April 4 was approximately 10k.  If excess deaths for the relevant time period is ~ 15k, then it's conceivable that there was up to a 50% undercount for that time period. 

Not when you add in the 3,700 that were added into to the count on April 14.  Those deaths occurred during that time period and are included in the total death count now but aren't included in the death totals that are being used for that time period in those two articles.  The NYC death count for those articles being used is 2,543 instead of the 6,000 plus number they should be using because NYC updated their numbers on April 14.  All of death total since have included deaths that meet the criteria that was excluded before.  A real study of on if the death count is significantly lower than it should be should only use on totals post April 14.  Before then it was under reported and since then it has been corrected.  

Is there a chance that the counts since April 14 have been under reported? Sure, but no evidence at this time has been produced to suggest that is the case.  The studies that have shown a possible undercount were using old data that has since been corrected in the counts.

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2 minutes ago, brianstl said:

Not when you add in the 3,700 that were added into to the count on April 14.  Those deaths occurred during that time period and are included in the total death count now but aren't included in the death totals that are being used for that time period in those two articles.  The NYC death count for those articles being used is 2,543 instead of the 6,000 plus number they should be using because NYC updated their numbers on April 14.  All of death total since have included deaths that meet the criteria that was excluded before.  A real study of on if the death count is significantly lower than it should be should only use on totals post April 14.  Before then it was under reported and since then it has been corrected.  

Is there a chance that the counts since April 14 have been under reported? Sure, but no evidence at this time has been produced to suggest that is the case.  The studies that have shown a possible undercount were using old data that has since been corrected in the counts.

That's why I pointed out the ~10k figure which appears to be close to the current official number as of April 4 as reported in multiple outlets.  

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57 minutes ago, brianstl said:

I never said I thought there would be less than 26,000 deaths.  Reading comprehension does appear to be an issue for you.

On March 11, you said Sean Hannity was the only person downplaying COVID-19 at Fox News and the right, your words, not mine.

You deferred to Old Guy as the board expert. He said many times COVID-19 U.S. deaths would be below 26,000. You, Brian, even said, "I think Old Guy projection will be closer than anything we got from models that were touted as gospel early on." "Old Guy clearly knew what he was talking about here." .....that was from April 14.

You have also had a repeated pattern of downplaying the lack of preparedness and poor response. 

You supported calling it the Chinese virus and Wuhan virus.

You supported Tucker Carlson, the same Tucker Carlson who said, "The curve flattened but quarantine had nothing to do with it. The virus just isn't nearly as deadly as we thought it was." ...among many other distrasous things.

You have enabled and condoned dangerous and unproven medications for the treatment of COVID-19.

 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, courtside said:

On March 11, you said Sean Hannity was the only person downplaying COVID-19 at Fox News and the right, your words, not mine.

You deferred to Old Guy as the board expert. He said many times COVID-19 U.S. deaths would be below 26,000. You, Brian, even said, "I think Old Guy projection will be closer than anything we got from models that were touted as gospel early on." "Old Guy clearly knew what he was talking about here." .....that was from April 14.

You have also had a repeated pattern of downplaying the lack of preparedness and poor response. 

You supported calling it the Chinese virus and Wuhan virus.

You supported Tucker Carlson, the same Tucker Carlson who said, "The curve flattened but quarantine had nothing to do with it. The virus just isn't nearly as deadly as we thought it was." ...among many other distrasous things.

You have enabled and condoned dangerous and unproven medications for the treatment of COVID-19.

 

 

 

 

So you admit I have never said the death count was going to be below 26,000, thank you.

I never said Old Guy was the board expert.  I said he knew what he was talking about when it came to these issues.  I know what his credentials are and this is the kind of stuff he was paid to do.  I said he shouldn't be dismissed as many were dismissing him.  I, also, said I didn't agree with everything he said about this.  I actually attacked several of his posts on the topic.  I did say I thought the count would end up being closer to 26,000 than some of the earlier projected numbers.  I was wrong.

I don't know where I down played a lack of preparedness or response. I posted that I thought it was foolish to compare any country to South Korea for several reasons and will stand behind that.  In this thread I was among the first supporting the shut downs we ended up getting and said that I wanted Missouri to be more proactive than they were.

I didn't support calling the virus anything.  I said it was stupid to act like calling this virus the Wuhan virus or Chinese virus was racist, when up until that point with this virus it has been standard practice for scientists to name viruses after the geographic areas the first outbreaks occurred and major media outlets across the spectrum had all called it the Wuhan virus and China virus almost right up to the point the fake outrage started.  Nobody is out there screaming about West Nile, Ebola, MERS or Norovirus. That to me is selective outrage that only exists to attack people for reasons that have nothing to do with actual racism.

I never supported Tucker Carlson in general in this thread.  I said on March 18 that he deserved credit for his early coverage of the threat this virus actually posed.  I have made no comment about Tucker Carlson since that date.  I have never supported the comments that you are trying to ascribe to me as supporting.  Since those comments refer to the curve being flattened I will assume they were made well after my March 18 post referencing Carlson's previous coverage of the virus threat before it became a pandemic.

I don't know how I could have enabled anyone to take any medication.  I don't work in any kind of profession that would allow me to do that.   I am, also, not sure where I have condoned such usage in this thread.   I think the only time I ever mentioned hydroxychloroquine in this thread was in a what was a dismissive way.  I stated that there were studies that showed it had promise in shortening symptoms in severe but not life threatening cases.  The point I was trying to make was that it wasn't going to be a miracle cure for people that were going to die of the virus.  I thought that would be clear to anyone that read the post.  Since I made that post studies have come out that question it's potential effectiveness and safety even in those severe but non life threatening cases.  All that said, I can ensure you and others that I am not in a position to enable any of those studies to take place.

Your reading comprehension obviously sucks because you are too busy trying to read what you want to read into the post of others instead of reading what the person actually posts.

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8 minutes ago, brianstl said:

So you admit I have never said the death count was going to be below 26,000, thank you.

I never said Old Guy was the board expert.  I said he knew what he was talking about when it came to these issues.  I know what his credentials are and this is the kind of stuff he was paid to do.  I said he shouldn't be dismissed as many were dismissing him.  I, also, said I didn't agree with everything he said about this.  I actually attacked several of his posts on the topic.  I did say I thought the count would end up being closer to 26,000 than some of the earlier projected numbers.  I was wrong.

I don't know where I down played a lack of preparedness or response. I posted that I thought it was foolish to compare any country to South Korea for several reasons and will stand behind that.  In this thread I was among the first supporting the shut downs we ended up getting and said that I wanted Missouri to be more proactive than they were.

I didn't support calling the virus anything.  I said it was stupid to act like calling this virus the Wuhan virus or Chinese virus was racist, when up until that point with this virus it has been standard practice for scientists to name viruses after the geographic areas the first outbreaks occurred and major media outlets across the spectrum had all called it the Wuhan virus and China virus almost right up to the point the fake outrage started.  Nobody is out there screaming about West Nile, Ebola, MERS or Norovirus. That to me is selective outrage that only exists to attack people for reasons that have nothing to do with actual racism.

I never supported Tucker Carlson in general in this thread.  I said on March 18 that he deserved credit for his early coverage of the threat this virus actually posed.  I have made no comment about Tucker Carlson since that date.  I have never supported the comments that you are trying to ascribe to me as supporting.  Since those comments refer to the curve being flattened I will assume they were made well after my March 18 post referencing Carlson's previous coverage of the virus threat before it became a pandemic.

I don't know how I could have enabled anyone to take any medication.  I don't work in any kind of profession that would allow me to do that.   I am, also, not sure where I have condoned such usage in this thread.   I think the only time I ever mentioned hydroxychloroquine in this thread was in a what was a dismissive way.  I stated that there were studies that showed it had promise in shortening symptoms in severe but not life threatening cases.  The point I was trying to make was that it wasn't going to be a miracle cure for people that were going to die of the virus.  I thought that would be clear to anyone that read the post.  Since I made that post studies have come out that question it's potential effectiveness and safety even in those severe but non life threatening cases.  All that said, I can ensure you and others that I am not in a position to enable any of those studies to take place.

Your reading comprehension obviously sucks because you are too busy trying to read what you want to read into the post of others instead of reading what the person actually posts.

Don't hurt yourself backpedaling. 

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1 hour ago, moytoy12 said:

That's why I pointed out the ~10k figure which appears to be close to the current official number as of April 4 as reported in multiple outlets.  

There could still be under reporting of what the count should be.  My guess would be the count is lower than it should be, but not in a significant amount.  This is something we need to know.  There really needs to be studies done with the numbers we have currently with adjustments made for deaths that should be attributed to people not seeking medical care for non COVID 19 cases out of fear of being infected.  I think that would be important information to know not just when it comes to the morbidity of COVID 19, but to what effect our current set up is having on an increase in other preventable deaths.  

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1 minute ago, brianstl said:

I didn't backpedal.  Feel free to quote any of my previous posts that you believe back the claims you made.

I feel your pain, Brian.  When you defended Old Guy as the most knowledgeable MBM on this pandemic, which is equivalent of giving props to the tallest midget, I cringed.    And the charts we had for Italy and Spain at the time already pointed to death totals way over 26,000 here in the U.S.  I knew your take wouldn't end well.  

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