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1 minute ago, billiken_roy said:

less deadly.........even though more will die this year from the flu than the chinese virus.   got it. again, less = more.   is this an example of the new math?

If by "new math," you mean fractions. 

Deaths / Total Cases

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Just now, bleedtheblue said:

First of all... Cancer, pneumonia and heart disease ARE NOT CONTAGIOUS so nice try but that argument fails to support anything you are saying.

Second of all, we lost our opportunity to quartentine specific groups of people when we did nothing in the month of February.

Third of all, regardless if people who have underlying conditions have a higher risk of death, healthy and asymptomatic individuals can carry and spread it to those individuals. 

 

 

again, i am asking about the reaction.   not comparing the happening.   why dont we get excited, upset, panicked about something that kills more?    

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Just now, billiken_roy said:

again, i am asking about the reaction.   not comparing the happening.   why dont we get excited, upset, panicked about something that kills more?    

Good question. Human psychology? Fear of the unknown? Immediate threat that can be transferred via the air vs dying in 40 years because you eat too many cheeseburgers? I wish we were more concerned about heart disease and strokes.

On a practical level, our healthcare systems are equipped to deal with the death rate from heart disease and cancer. The "panic" is also about not overwhelming our hospital systems.

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1 minute ago, brianstl said:

I reached a conclusion last night that I have been building to for a long time after reading even more stuff on this virus.  We have to have a really honest conversation about this virus.  We won't have that conversation because of politics and people don't want to admit what the awful truth actually is.  

We need to stop thinking of the death total as a scoreboard in which we can keep the score of COVID deaths lower by playing better defense.  The death total is actually a timer and it is going to keep ticking up until we reach a total that equals the death rate of this virus across society.  The virus can be slowed, but it spreads way too easily, has way too many asymptomatic carriers and we live in world that is far too interconnected even in a shutdown to contain it at a level that will stop is spread.  We are playing out the clock and our shutdowns are just timeouts before their are no more ticks on the clock.  It just delays the inevitable.  We are talking 600,000 to 2 million (maybe more) deaths depending on what the death rate of this virus actually is.  Those 26,000 thousands deaths we have already haven't been preventable since this thing broke from a small group in Wuhan sometime probably back in November.  Since then they were going to die of virus, it was just a question of when.

We need to admit that really no matter what we do going forward the death toll from this is going to be massive because it is a novel virus and we have will have no vaccine for a very long time.  We need to stop talking like their is a legitimate possibility for a safe and effective vaccine in 18 months.  It would be great if there was a vaccine in that time period, but history suggest it will more likely be years or even decades before we have one. 

The conversation needs to be about going forward with those realities.  

 

I don't necessarily disagree with what you're saying here.  But, do we want those 600k-2mm deaths within weeks or months?  Because if you're ok with opening everything up, then you accept the possibility of a lot of death within weeks (which I suspect would be a lot more than 2mm).  A lot of deaths within weeks does more to paralyze the world (morally, economically, etc) than the current lock down.  

Also, based on this, Old Guy's 26k isn't going to be close to the 600k-2mm that you posit will die.  Only pointing this out because you said yesterday that Old Guy would be closer to the estimate than others and I think that is untrue. 

All this being said, what are your thoughts on moving forward?  Genuinely interested in what you think because I sincerely respect your opinion and, quite frankly, I don't have a good answer to the question.  

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You're right, the American heart association, the countless March for the cure events, billion dollar research grants, and hospitals specifically devoted to cancer treatment and research isn't in any sorts of reaction. Seatbelts, warnings on packs of cigarettes and having to have nutritional information on food was not a reaction either. You are totally right. My apologies. 

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1 minute ago, GBL_Bills said:

Good question. Human psychology? Fear of the unknown? Immediate threat that can be transferred via the air vs dying in 40 years because you eat too many cheeseburgers? I wish we were more concerned about heart disease and strokes.

On a practical level, our healthcare systems are equipped to deal with the death rate from heart disease and cancer. The "panic" is also about not overwhelming our hospital systems.

they are so equipped we make zero dent in bringing down the annual death numbers every year.  

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1 minute ago, bleedtheblue said:

You're right, the American heart association, the countless March for the cure events, billion dollar research grants, and hospitals specifically devoted to cancer treatment and research isn't in any sorts of reaction. Seatbelts, warnings on packs of cigarettes and having to have nutritional information on food was not a reaction either. You are totally right. My apologies. 

it isnt shutting down the world like America just did in March.

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2 minutes ago, GBL_Bills said:

Good question. Human psychology? Fear of the unknown? Immediate threat that can be transferred via the air vs dying in 40 years because you eat too many cheeseburgers? I wish we were more concerned about heart disease and strokes.

On a practical level, our healthcare systems are equipped to deal with the death rate from heart disease and cancer. The "panic" is also about not overwhelming our hospital systems.

A striking thing about this thread is I haven't heard certain people talk about our obesity epidemic.  Or diabetes.  Or any number of other health disorders that impact millions of people.  But all of a sudden, they think coronavirus is the "fall guy".   Honestly, it's just disingenuous bullsh!t.  

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4 minutes ago, GBL_Bills said:

Now you're just trolling

He's been spoiling for this fight for a long time.  He's rush limbaugh.  He's glenn beck.  It's absurdity. I feel stupid giving it oxygen and for that I apologize to the board.

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13 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

they are so equipped we make zero dent in bringing down the annual death numbers every year.  

Also, we are by the way. Normalized to population, which is the ratio that really matters.

How do mortality rates in the U.S. compare to other countries ...

Edit: Replaced link with easier graph to interpret.

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15 minutes ago, moytoy12 said:

A striking thing about this thread is I haven't heard certain people talk about our obesity epidemic.  Or diabetes.  Or any number of other health disorders that impact millions of people.  But all of a sudden, they think coronavirus is the "fall guy".   Honestly, it's just disingenuous bullsh!t.  

that is exactly what i have been trying to say.   

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At this point the strategy appears to be watch what happens in Europe, since the progression of the virus there is about two weeks ahead of us.  Hopefully they can figure out the answer and then we can copy what they do.  If coronavirus plunges Europe into a years-long depression, the same thing will happen here.  The Asian superpowers won't be spared either.  Our economies are interconnected.

The 21st century will be a test of whether nations with very different cultural approaches can work together to solve global problems.  The stakes couldn't be higher.  It's a pass/fail test.  

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13 hours ago, thetorch said:

Chloroquine is not hydroxychloroquine.

One thing I don't understand is not being positive about possible treatments. There is anecdotal evidence of this working but still a lot of push back against it.

 

I never even brought up hydroxychloroquine in my post, and I never even said anything about the two being the same. Not sure how you inferred that. Similar drugs of the same class, but clearly not the same.  I simply said I wasn't surprised that a study looking at the use of high chloroquine doses significantly increased the risk for fatal arrhythmias. 

Nothing I've stated here has ever suggested that I'm "not positive" about possible treatments. This has never been about "not being positive." Dr. Fauci isn't just some random troll trying to tear down everyone's optimism. He's a scientist, and expresses healthy skepticism towards treatments that are not only unproven, but ones that may also cause more harm than good for patients. 

"First, do no harm."

My point is, we don't know how effective hydroxycloroquine or chloroquine are in treating Covid-19. I never said they may not be effective treatments. But there are definitely real concerns, as indicated in the article by the NYTimes. 

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1 minute ago, 3star_recruit said:

The 21st century will be a test of whether nations with very different cultural approaches can work together to solve global problems.  The stakes couldn't be higher.  It's a pass/fail test.  

Just gonna say, if the US continues to have a white supremacist at the helm...we gonna fail. 

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3 minutes ago, Spoon-Balls said:

I never even brought up hydroxychloroquine in my post, and I never even said anything about the two being similar. Not sure how you inferred that. I simply said I wasn't surprised that a study looking at the use of high chloroquine doses significantly increased the risk for fatal arrhythmias. 

Nothing I've stated here has ever suggested that I'm "not positive" about possible treatments. This has never been about "not being positive." Dr. Fauci isn't just some random troll trying to tear down everyone's optimism. He's a scientist, and expresses healthy skepticism towards treatments that are not only unproven, but ones that may also cause more harm than good for patients. 

"First, do no harm."

My point is, we don't know how effective hydroxycloroquine or chloroquine are in treating Covid-19. I never said they may not be effective treatments. But there are definitely real concerns, as indicated in the article by the NYTimes. 

Whatever, you're probably a psychologist. 

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Just now, glazedandconfused said:

I’m howling at @billiken_roy grasping for straws and asking why heart disease and cancer don’t get the same reaction as Coronavirus. Truly incredible galaxy brain

Look, Obama wore an off-color suit and the first lady tried to give us veggies.  They're F'ING COMMIES!!!!!  

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24 minutes ago, moytoy12 said:

I don't necessarily disagree with what you're saying here.  But, do we want those 600k-2mm deaths within weeks or months?  Because if you're ok with opening everything up, then you accept the possibility of a lot of death within weeks (which I suspect would be a lot more than 2mm).  A lot of deaths within weeks does more to paralyze the world (morally, economically, etc) than the current lock down.  

Also, based on this, Old Guy's 26k isn't going to be close to the 600k-2mm that you posit will die.  Only pointing this out because you said yesterday that Old Guy would be closer to the estimate than others and I think that is untrue. 

All this being said, what are your thoughts on moving forward?  Genuinely interested in what you think because I sincerely respect your opinion and, quite frankly, I don't have a good answer to the question.  

I guess I really struggle with the part in bold. The current lock-down doesn't seem so bad because the Federal Government has been able to step-in and make most people and companies "whole" with lost wages and earnings for 2 months. The government can't do this for 18 months. The system will break and the financial repercussions will be larger than can be imagined. Runaway inflation because the Feds are printing money, life savings wiped out, off the charts unemployment, despair, criminal activity, etc. Pick your favorite end of the world movie and it's what will happen if this goes on indefinitely.

This sounds mean but if it's a choice between 18 months of this and ripping off the bandaid and the virus running wild for a couple months, I think most of America is for ripping off the bandaid. Old people should stay in the house. The rest of us can get it, the vast majority will be fine and based on most indications we won't be at risk for getting it again soon and won't be contagious.

The good news is the decision doesn't have to be made now and the next month can be used to test whether moderate steps to get back to normal work without a major backslide. If it doesn't though, I think September is a line drawn in the sand time period as kids need to get back to school.

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5 minutes ago, kshoe said:

I guess I really struggle with the part in bold. The current lock-down doesn't seem so bad because the Federal Government has been able to step-in and make most people and companies "whole" with lost wages and earnings for 2 months. The government can't do this for 18 months. The system will break and the financial repercussions will be larger than can be imagined. Runaway inflation because the Feds are printing money, life savings wiped out, off the charts unemployment, despair, criminal activity, etc. Pick your favorite end of the world movie and it's what will happen if this goes on indefinitely.

This sounds mean but if it's a choice between 18 months of this and ripping off the bandaid and the virus running wild for a couple months, I think most of America is for ripping off the bandaid. Old people should stay in the house. The rest of us can get it, the vast majority will be fine and based on most indications we won't be at risk for getting it again soon and won't be contagious.

The good news is the decision doesn't have to be made now and the next month can be used to test whether moderate steps to get back to normal work without a major backslide. If it doesn't though, I think September is a line drawn in the sand time period as kids need to get back to school.

People other than old people are dying....

Where are you getting most of America is for ripping off the bandaid? Please tell me. Both me and my wife work in healthcare and I know none of our coworkers agree with that sentiment. 

We will recover from this.

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3 minutes ago, kshoe said:

I guess I really struggle with the part in bold. The current lock-down doesn't seem so bad because the Federal Government has been able to step-in and make most people and companies "whole" with lost wages and earnings for 2 months. The government can't do this for 18 months. The system will break and the financial repercussions will be larger than can be imagined. Runaway inflation because the Feds are printing money, life savings wiped out, off the charts unemployment, despair, criminal activity, etc. Pick your favorite end of the world movie and it's what will happen if this goes on indefinitely.

This sounds mean but if it's a choice between 18 months of this and ripping off the bandaid and the virus running wild for a couple months, I think most of America is for ripping off the bandaid. Old people should stay in the house. The rest of us can get it, the vast majority will be fine and based on most indications we won't be at risk for getting it again soon and won't be contagious.

The good news is the decision doesn't have to be made now and the next month can be used to test whether moderate steps to get back to normal work without a major backslide. If it doesn't though, I think September is a line drawn in the sand time period as kids need to get back to school.

Doesn't matter what America decides if the rest of the world's economies are shut down.  Our trading partners and much of our manufacturing capacity are outside the United States.  We are all in this together, whether we like it or not.  

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