SLU & NCAA Corona Virus Discussion

[almaman]

45 minutes ago, glazedandconfused said:

Father time is undefeated.

look at the competition though. we never stood a chance

[almaman]

Closing in on 2000 today 2/3's of a 9/11. how much worse will it get check out this cheery read. I only got thru a bit too depressing but will read later. using board using board as a clipboard

 

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/04/collapsology-is-this-the-end-of-civilization-as-we-know-it/

[courtside]

1 hour ago, Old guy said:

I have no idea what the bug will do almaman. Look at it like acceleration and deceleration. As the epidemic grows, fed by ever increasing numbers of new cases, the number of deaths accelerates upwards. The disease itself has a specific natural history. A certain number of people, not all, go from (+) to clinical disease, a number of the people with clinical disease (not all) progress to respiratory failure. Let's say than less than 50% of those receiving ventilation recover. OK, so what do you have after this period of time. The ones that got the virus but not the disease develop immunity and recover, the ones that got the disease but not the respiratory failure develop immunity and recover, and the ones surviving the respiratory failure and ventilation also develop immunity  and recover. As this process goes on, the number of really susceptible cases in the population go down. The remaining susceptible people get the disease and either survive it or not. The outcomes places each individual going through this process into the recovered immune category or the dead category. There are many more recovered people with immunity in the mass of the population as this process takes place.

At the time when the number of immune recovered patients increases beyond a certain threshold, the transmission is interrupted to a degree, an interruption in transmission that keeps on growing as the numbers of immune people in the population at large grows. At that time, it really does not matter if you wear a plastic trash bag over you, gloves, and a mask and whether or not you keep social distance. The transmission rate goes down slowly at the beginning, much faster later on. Indeed the number of new cases accelerates downwards (decelerates). And this is where the fat lady comes out and sings. The epidemic is basically washed out. The low hanging fruit has been harvested by the bug. It is hard to for the bug to find new susceptible people to infect.

For the next wave to happen, the bug needs to mutate, become different, to have a chance to find suitable people to infect. This is hard because the bug remains a coronavirus with a lot of similarities with the bug that caused the epidemic in the first place. The bug is different or becomes different all right, but most likely not so much as to be able to spread like wildfire throughout the population  which by now will have a much higher level of immunity to the Corona that the first time around.

Do you get it? Up and down, acceleration and deceleration. Sure social distance, gloves and masks help, but the thing that really stops the epidemic is the relative lack of susceptible people with no immunity  to  it. This epidemic is coming down, no matter how many prayers for its continuation are raised to God's ears by all manner of really sick imbeciles that want it to continue killing people.

We are getting to the  tipping point, from here on the direction will be down. When is the tipping point? Whenever it happens. Does it make any  real difference to determine the exact date?

Dream happy dreams of shaking hands with your friends and enjoying a nice restaurant meal with your family. It is inevitable that this will happen. Those that believe in wave 2 believe in a Harry Potter style curse that will prove strong enough  to  overcome the barrier of increasing population immunity. It is so simple if you know the  basics, it is so difficult if you have to  listen to the  press and the hordes of idiots giving their personal opinions/wishes or the experts angling for increased funding.

The whole world has become a can of worms where lies and wishful thinking substitute for reality, and panic runs rampant everywhere. Is this your wish for the future? If it is you will eventually have to encase yourself inside something similar to a giant condom every time you go outside. Never fear, you  will not have to do this, herd immunity (which is what the process I described above is called) will take care of this epidemic, as it always does. It is just a matter of time, the epidemic will burn out by itself.

Now, according to courtside the second wave has already started in Singapore. Why Singapore, why not China where it all started?

China has seen an uptick in cases this past week and issued lockdowns and curfews in multiple Central Province counties. Hong Kong has also seen an uptick in cases.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-04-02/chinese-county-back-under-lockdown-after-infection-re-emerges?__twitter_impression=true

 

https://www.thedailybeast.com/us-eyes-second-coronavirus-outbreak-in-china?source=articles&via=twitter_page

 

 

 

[Old guy]

13 hours ago, SLU_Lax said:

Stop accusing people of cheering for the virus and rooting for death. Please. 
 

I see that your definition of what entails Wave 1 is every infection resulting from this strain of the virus. A mutation allowing those previously infected to once again get sick would be the end of the wave. You’d consider a sudden surge in cases (from this strain) that occurs months from now part of Wave 1. It is fine, what I meant was the disease starts to spread more rapidly again which is the more common understanding.

This is the way it works with influenza and it is the most likely way it will work with Corona. A yearly epidemic may be what we should expect in the future. And the total death rate will not be 60,000 it will be a lot lower.

"Collapsology" please, why does anyone waste time reading stuff like this?

[JMM28]

4 hours ago, glazedandconfused said:

Father time is undefeated.

Concrete has a pretty strong record too. 

[moytoy12]

4 hours ago, Old guy said:

I have no idea what the bug will do almaman. Look at it like acceleration and deceleration. As the epidemic grows, fed by ever increasing numbers of new cases, the number of deaths accelerates upwards. The disease itself has a specific natural history. A certain number of people, not all, go from (+) to clinical disease, a number of the people with clinical disease (not all) progress to respiratory failure. Let's say than less than 50% of those receiving ventilation recover. OK, so what do you have after this period of time. The ones that got the virus but not the disease develop immunity and recover, the ones that got the disease but not the respiratory failure develop immunity and recover, and the ones surviving the respiratory failure and ventilation also develop immunity  and recover. As this process goes on, the number of really susceptible cases in the population go down. The remaining susceptible people get the disease and either survive it or not. The outcomes places each individual going through this process into the recovered immune category or the dead category. There are many more recovered people with immunity in the mass of the population as this process takes place.

At the time when the number of immune recovered patients increases beyond a certain threshold, the transmission is interrupted to a degree, an interruption in transmission that keeps on growing as the numbers of immune people in the population at large grows. At that time, it really does not matter if you wear a plastic trash bag over you, gloves, and a mask and whether or not you keep social distance. The transmission rate goes down slowly at the beginning, much faster later on. Indeed the number of new cases accelerates downwards (decelerates). And this is where the fat lady comes out and sings. The epidemic is basically washed out. The low hanging fruit has been harvested by the bug. It is hard to for the bug to find new susceptible people to infect.

For the next wave to happen, the bug needs to mutate, become different, to have a chance to find suitable people to infect. This is hard because the bug remains a coronavirus with a lot of similarities with the bug that caused the epidemic in the first place. The bug is different or becomes different all right, but most likely not so much as to be able to spread like wildfire throughout the population  which by now will have a much higher level of immunity to the Corona that the first time around.

Do you get it? Up and down, acceleration and deceleration. Sure social distance, gloves and masks help, but the thing that really stops the epidemic is the relative lack of susceptible people with no immunity  to  it. This epidemic is coming down, no matter how many prayers for its continuation are raised to God's ears by all manner of really sick imbeciles that want it to continue killing people.

We are getting to the  tipping point, from here on the direction will be down. When is the tipping point? Whenever it happens. Does it make any  real difference to determine the exact date?

Dream happy dreams of shaking hands with your friends and enjoying a nice restaurant meal with your family. It is inevitable that this will happen. Those that believe in wave 2 believe in a Harry Potter style curse that will prove strong enough  to  overcome the barrier of increasing population immunity. It is so simple if you know the  basics, it is so difficult if you have to  listen to the  press and the hordes of idiots giving their personal opinions/wishes or the experts angling for increased funding.

The whole world has become a can of worms where lies and wishful thinking substitute for reality, and panic runs rampant everywhere. Is this your wish for the future? If it is you will eventually have to encase yourself inside something similar to a giant condom every time you go outside. Never fear, you  will not have to do this, herd immunity (which is what the process I described above is called) will take care of this epidemic, as it always does. It is just a matter of time, the epidemic will burn out by itself.

Now, according to courtside the second wave has already started in Singapore. Why Singapore, why not China where it all started?

So now you’re the board psychologist? What a pitiful vocation. Not even skilled enough to be a psychiatrist. 

[Old guy]

This is interesting to me at least. After the onset of the initial SARS epidemic in China around 2004, a lot of research was done to identify suitable therapies to deal with these viruses. You may  ask what does SARS have to do with Covid-19, a lot. The name Covid-19 is the name given to the current epidemic which started (the lead case) in  2019 in China. The actual name of the virus causing it is SARS CoV-2, which means the second member of the SARS corona virus family. The article below was published in Virology (US publication) in 2005 and written by a team at CDC. It shows there is extensive information documenting strong in vitro inhibitory action against the virus produced by chloroquine. This reseearch actually worked the molecular mechanism by which the blocking action is produced. The link is here:

https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/track/pdf/10.1186/1743-422X-2-69

 

 

 

[courtside]

15 hours ago, almaman said:

+ all the regular sick that can't get taken care of.

And of course in many instances across the globe, if and when people die without getting a COVID-19 test, it can and has been labeled bilateral pneumonia death, etc...when in it's COVID-19 related. Numbers have been and will be under reported.

[billiken_roy]

10 minutes ago, courtside said:

And of course in many instances across the globe, if and when people die without getting a COVID-19 test, it can and has been labeled bilateral pneumonia death, etc...when in it's COVID-19 related. Numbers have been and will be under reported.

i think a lot of us believe the opposite.   Tuesday night it was mentioned on the news that the number of pneumonia and flu deaths are strangely on pace to be far under what they normally are annually.   my guess is that they are being labeled as chinese flu virus deaths instead of pneumonia or flu deaths.   

[AnkielBreakers]

54 minutes ago, Old guy said:

This is interesting to me at least. After the onset of the initial SARS epidemic in China around 2004, a lot of research was done to identify suitable therapies to deal with these viruses. You may  ask what does SARS have to do with Covid-19, a lot. The name Covid-19 is the name given to the current epidemic which started (the lead case) in  2019 in China. The actual name of the virus causing it is SARS CoV-2, which means the second member of the SARS corona virus family. The article below was published in Virology (US publication) in 2005 and written by a team at CDC. It shows there is extensive information documenting strong in vitro inhibitory action against the virus produced by chloroquine. This reseearch actually worked the molecular mechanism by which the blocking action is produced. The link is here:

https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/track/pdf/10.1186/1743-422X-2-69

 

 

 

I am surprised you are still beating this drum. I mean, I think everyone gets it, it is a treatment that can be used. Doctors are aware of it and are using it currently. We will see what the outcomes are.

[SLU_Lax]

18 minutes ago, courtside said:

And of course in many instances across the globe, if and when people die without getting a COVID-19 test, it can and has been labeled bilateral pneumonia death, etc...when in it's COVID-19 related. Numbers have been and will be under reported.

It is still very hard to get tested.  A close friend of mine in his 30s struggled with a virus for 2+ weeks and could never get tested.  He finally got tested when he showed back up at the hospital and had to be quickly put on a ventilator.  He actually tested negative at that point.  He is home now and was simply told that either (1) he had a virus that his body resolved, but could not stop the breathing symptoms from getting worse even after the virus was resolved, or (2) he had a strong reaction to his seasonal allergies.

There is no way currently in the short-term to know if he had COVID-19 or not.  If he had passed away, he absolutely would not have been labeled a COVID-19 death.  It is difficult to get a test and many times a corpse will NOT be tested for COVID-19.  I am guessing that this will become a prolonged debate though.

[courtside]

36 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

i think a lot of us believe the opposite.   Tuesday night it was mentioned on the news that the number of pneumonia and flu deaths are strangely on pace to be far under what they normally are annually.   my guess is that they are being labeled as chinese flu virus deaths instead of pneumonia or flu deaths.   

Nope. Factcheck.org disagrees with you. 

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/social-media-posts-make-baseless-claim-on-covid-19-death-toll/

“A greater issue is errors in the other direction - deaths caused by COVID-19 that are not counted as such.” 

“Lipsitch cited at least two reasons for that underreporting: Someone having and dying from clear COVID-19 respiratory symptoms but never being tested (especially early in the epidemic, when tests were scarce.) Or, he said, someone dying from causes, such as heart attack or stroke, triggered by the infection-with no one ever suspecting the disease.”

-Marc Lipsitch Professor of Epidemiology Harvard University.

Sally Aiken, President of the National Association of Medical Examiners also disagrees with you. She called it “ridiculous.” She even cites CDC guidelines.

Michael Baden, former Chief Medical Examiner of New York City disagrees with you.

Gary Watts coroner for Richland County, South Carolina, and, President of the International Association of Coroners and Medical Examiners disagrees with you.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/us/coronavirus-deaths-undercount.amp.html

 

Jennifer Nuzzo senior scholar for Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security disagrees with you.

Jeff Lancashire, spokesman for the National Center for Health statistics disagrees with you.

Geraldine Menard, Chief of General Internal Medicine at Tulane Medical Center disagrees with you.

Joani Shields coroner Monroe County Indiana disagrees with you.

Lina Evans, Shelby County Alabama Coroner disagrees with you.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[disgruntledbilliken]

37 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

i think a lot of us believe the opposite.   Tuesday night it was mentioned on the news that the number of pneumonia and flu deaths are strangely on pace to be far under what they normally are annually.   my guess is that they are being labeled as chinese flu virus deaths instead of pneumonia or flu deaths.   

Didn't you have some come to Jesus post a few days ago where you recognized your role in the craziness of this thread? 

And yet here you are with your racist bull****. At this point, it is common sense that calling it the "chinese flu" or anything of the like is absolutely racist, and yet here you are showing your colors. 

Didn't you say you've considered leaving the board? Maybe you should. One of your posts said you received a PM from another board member who convinced you to come back after a hiatus. Maybe if I PM you I can convince you to leave and never come back?

[billiken_roy]

1 minute ago, disgruntledbilliken said:

Didn't you have some come to Jesus post a few days ago where you recognized your role in the craziness of this thread? 

And yet here you are with your racist bull****. At this point, it is common sense that calling it the "chinese flu" or anything of the like is absolutely racist, and yet here you are showing your colors. 

Didn't you say you've considered leaving the board? Maybe you should. One of your posts said you received a PM from another board member who convinced you to come back after a hiatus. Maybe if I PM you I can convince you to leave and never come back?

you sure are disgruntled

[disgruntledbilliken]

2 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

you sure are disgruntled

Yes, I do get disgruntled by racist a**holes

[courtside]

"Most of the NY cases came from Europe not Asia."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/science/new-york-coronavirus-cases-europe-genomes.html

[almaman]

30 minutes ago, courtside said:

Nope. Factcheck.org disagrees with you. 

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/social-media-posts-make-baseless-claim-on-covid-19-death-toll/

“A greater issue is errors in the other direction - deaths caused by COVID-19 that are not counted as such.” 

“Lipsitch cited at least two reasons for that underreporting: Someone having and dying from clear COVID-19 respiratory symptoms but never being tested (especially early in the epidemic, when tests were scarce.) Or, he said, someone dying from causes, such as heart attack or stroke, triggered by the infection-with no one ever suspecting the disease.”

-Marc Lipsitch Professor of Epidemiology Harvard University.

Sally Aiken, President of the National Association of Medical Examiners also disagrees with you. She called it “ridiculous.” She even cites CDC guidelines.

Michael Baden, former Chief Medical Examiner of New York City disagrees with you.

Gary Watts coroner for Richland County, South Carolina, and, President of the International Association of Coroners and Medical Examiners disagrees with you.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/us/coronavirus-deaths-undercount.amp.html

 

Jennifer Nuzzo senior scholar for Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security disagrees with you.

Jeff Lancashire, spokesman for the National Center for Health statistics disagrees with you.

Geraldine Menard, Chief of General Internal Medicine at Tulane Medical Center disagrees with you.

Joani Shields coroner Monroe County Indiana disagrees with you.

Lina Evans, Shelby County Alabama Coroner disagrees with you.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Reminds me of the beginning of the end  of WC as we know it (11/8/16) right before every news paper but 1 or 2, we're talking in the hundreds endorsed HC.  There are people on both sides of everything. In many of these things there is a correct answer, moon landing, round earth, vaccines, smoking causes cancer climate change yada yada. The more complex an issue the harder it is for % of folks who can't or refuses to understand.

[Old guy]

OK people, I know there are all kinds of people whose sense of reality is not my sense of reality,  even worse their definition of reality is not mine either. I agree that I have purposely ripped apart  SpoonBalls and Rgbilliken and derived satisfaction from doing so. This is not an apology to these two. The feeling of internal satisfaction I felt remains inside me and I feel neither shame nor remorse for having done so. However, there is no use at all in continuing to rip them apart, so I just will ignore them.

I remember that years ago a whole religious cult who followed a nut went to Guyana and proceeded to engage in voluntary mass suicide. Whatever else may be said about this terrible episode, those people believed what their leader said. It is possible that they never came across a dissenting opinion, or never allowed a dissenting opinion from reaching them. Think about this example. I think dissenting opinions are valuable and I have tried to provide these in a factual basis. However, I will affirm that you are free to believe what you want to believe, and follow whoever you wish to follow. I affirm the same is true for myself and for those that believe what I believe. I will not define my beliefs here, I think most of you have an idea about what they are.

I know you do not want to hear what I say, and I do not want to hear what you say. That is a fair statement, I think. I propose to leave this thread to catch dust and I propolse that you do the same. I think this will do a lot to improve harmony in this board. So, let's give it a try and see what happens.

 

[BIG BILL FAN]

1 hour ago, disgruntledbilliken said:

Yes, I do get disgruntled by racist a**holes

Just stop, Roy is no racist, and you know it. There are however, political bigots, you being a prime example.

[almaman]

If next 7 days as bad as the last 7 OG's 26k bet is in the rear view

[GBL_Bills]

If OG is off by 5% in either direction, he shouldn't be allowed to post unless his first post is an apology to rg and Spoonballs

[AnkielBreakers]

2 hours ago, courtside said:

"Most of the NY cases came from Europe not Asia."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/science/new-york-coronavirus-cases-europe-genomes.html

So, you are saying we need to be racist to people of European descent? 

[SLU_Lax]

5 minutes ago, AnkielBreakers said:

So, you are saying we need to be racist to people of European descent? 

Only the British....because as an Irish-American I have had to kick them out of my country twice now.  Although I guess that is more of an emotional argument than a medical argument.

[almaman]

1 hour ago, SLU_Lax said:

.  Although I guess that is more of an emotional argument than a medical argument.

Almost "presidential"

[RUBillsFan]

I've tried to avoid this thread like...er....well like the coronavirus itself, but out of morbid curiosity I catch up on it every so often because it keeps getting bumped up to the top of the board.

I am very disappointed to see @rgbilliken leaving because @Old guy is a complete ****** bag.  In addition to Pistol and a few others, RG is one of the MBMs whose posts I always stop and read all the way through.  On the flip side, Old Guy's posts are always nothing posts responding to someone because he misses a joke or diatribes on something where he pretends to be an expert, but seems full of it.  I regularly skip over his posts because they add very little or no value to the board.  Prior to this latest episode, I never considered him malicious, he was just someone who wasn't worth my time.  Now, I know he is also an who has actively made this board a less informative place by driving away someone who did provide useful information / basketball comments.

If I had more time on my hands, I'd try to troll the shi*t out of Old Guy to get him to leave.  Alas, I'm not retired and useless (not a knock on all retirees - many are very useful, but I'm assuming Old Guy is both retired and useless), so I don't have the time.

Carry on fellow Billiken fans.  Just wanted to say my peace.