SLU & NCAA Corona Virus Discussion

[Old guy]

Deleted, I added a quote to my post

[Old guy]

25 minutes ago, almaman said:

O G we are now halfway to your 26K corvo corpses. R U sticking with your prediction?

Yes, I am. And you know what, my prediction will be a LOT closer to reality than Ferguson's or Fauci's.

[Spoon-Balls]

https://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/if-they-call-me-im-coming-former-cardinals-first-baseman-mark-hamilton-set-to-graduate/article_067ef05a-c919-5695-a92f-fc091a1e7c78.html

Awesome article. Mark Hamilton has the right attitude. While not being able to take part in the traditional medical school commencement festivities certainly sucks, it's important to remember why we're going into this profession in the first place, and to appreciate the opportunity we'll have to make a difference when we start residency. 

[almaman]

20 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Yes, I am. And you know what, my prediction will be a LOT closer to reality than Ferguson's or Fauci's.

I hope you're correct but I find it not likely if you do the math.  we have 411k cases now. 13k dead, 22k recovered. if we have no new cases all 411K will be either dead or recovered when it's over. So far 34% of the cases resolved have died. If you are right the remaining 330K unresolved cases would have to only yield 13K corpses to have you be correct. That would be a rate of less than .04%. I predict we will be over 26K by May Day maybe sooner. anyone on this board knows I'm no genius by now but I don't see anything pointing away from my conclusions.

I super hope I'm way off....

[glazedandconfused]

41 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Yes, I am. And you know what, my prediction will be a LOT closer to reality than Ferguson's or Fauci's.

Broken clocks are right twice a day. 

[courtside]

47 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Yes, I am. And you know what, my prediction will be a LOT closer to reality than Ferguson's or Fauci's.

Fauci hasn’t predicted a death number. But keep moving those goalposts. 

[slufan13]

This isn't quantifiable but I'd be interested to see the number of deaths for people who have died from something other than coronavirus but couldn't receive medical attention due to all the consequences this virus has had on the medical community

[dennis_w]

14 minutes ago, courtside said:

Fauci hasn’t predicted a death number. But keep moving those goalposts. 

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/29/823517467/fauci-estimates-that-100-000-to-200-000-americans-could-die-from-the-coronavirus

[Spoon-Balls]

45 minutes ago, slufan13 said:

This isn't quantifiable but I'd be interested to see the number of deaths for people who have died from something other than coronavirus but couldn't receive medical attention due to all the consequences this virus has had on the medical community

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/04/06/i-dont-have-coronavirus-it-might-kill-me-anyway-163101

[Old guy]

58 minutes ago, dennis_w said:

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/29/823517467/fauci-estimates-that-100-000-to-200-000-americans-could-die-from-the-coronavirus

Anything that says death COULD reach such and such level is NOT a solid estimate, and Fauci is leaving a door wide open to back track. The date of the article is 3/29 and by now 4/8 it is virtually certain that the mortality will NOT reach these numbers. See, no "could" word used, this is a firm statement Fauci's 3/29 statement is not firm.

[almaman]

1 hour ago, courtside said:

Fauci hasn’t predicted a death number. But keep moving those goalposts. 

Love to see a graph like NYT did for unemployment claims that week they topped 3M for unemployment % through the years for goalpost moving that the fuhrer has done on the virus. From topping out at 15 cases to claiming holding body bag # below a million will be a triumph. sure there is something out there by now. if anyone sees one post.

[Old guy]

As of today the IHME model, which varies day by day, is predicting 60,415 Covid 19 deaths in the US. This is about a 30% reduction in the estimated number of deaths since the initial round of predictions by the same model which was over 93,000. This model's total death prediction will continue going lower as time passes and the curves tighten around a real number. The IHME total death estimate level keeps on getting closer to my estimate which has not changed since I posted it.

 

[courtside]

12 minutes ago, Old guy said:

As of today the IHME model, which varies day by day, is predicting 60,415 Covid 19 deaths in the US. This is about a 30% reduction in the estimated number of deaths since the initial round of predictions by the same model which was over 93,000. This model's total death prediction will continue going lower as time passes and the curves tighten around a real number. The IHME total death estimate level keeps on getting closer to my estimate which has not changed since I posted it.

 

And once again, these are big numbers that could have been less. 

[SLU_Lax]

16 minutes ago, courtside said:

And once again, these are big numbers that could have been less. 

They are also just wave 1 numbers. It is commendable how well US people have done overall in handling the social distancing and it sure seems to be working. Still a ways to go and hoping for the best. 

[almaman]

37 minutes ago, Old guy said:

As of today the IHME model, which varies day by day, is predicting 60,415 Covid 19 deaths in the US. This is about a 30% reduction in the estimated number of deaths since the initial round of predictions by the same model which was over 93,000. This model's total death prediction will continue going lower as time passes and the curves tighten around a real number. The IHME total death estimate level keeps on getting closer to my estimate which has not changed since I posted it.

 

R U moving you're goal post from 26 to 60K ?

[almaman]

8 minutes ago, SLU_Lax said:

They are also just wave 1 numbers. It is commendable how well US people have done overall in handling the social distancing and it sure seems to be working. Still a ways to go and hoping for the best. 

compared to what we are used to it is almost commendable but man still unreal how many of us have and still our not doing it right or at all. makes me think how whenever you see Chinese or free Asian countries for that matter when they do crowd things where everyone holds stuff colored sign above head to form big picture over there always perfect. over here it's closer to % at a white out game

[courtside]

31 minutes ago, SLU_Lax said:

They are also just wave 1 numbers. It is commendable how well US people have done overall in handling the social distancing and it sure seems to be working. Still a ways to go and hoping for the best. 

Yep. We’ll unfortunately be counting numbers for a long time. 

[Old guy]

There is no evidence anywhere that a wave 2 is coming, certainly not in China which is off the epidemic by now.

[almaman]

O G your 13k cushion going into the a m may be down to 11K by the end of the CV Day. which I can't figure out what is the start of. seems like around 8 or 9our time the day totals stop for a few hours. maybe it's like the stock market.

[courtside]

1 hour ago, Old guy said:

There is no evidence anywhere that a wave 2 is coming, certainly not in China which is off the epidemic by now.

Some Asian countries are seeing 2nd and 3rd waves already. 142 new cases in Singapore today. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/world/asia/coronavirus-china-hong-kong-singapore-south-korea.html#click=https://t.co/8EgzJ6993m

 

And of course we haven't even discussed the many patients that have sustained long term health problems that will eventually succomb to COVID-19 down the road.

[almaman]

18 minutes ago, courtside said:

Some Asian countries are seeing 2nd and 3rd waves already. 142 new cases in Singapore today. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/world/asia/coronavirus-china-hong-kong-singapore-south-korea.html#click=https://t.co/8EgzJ6993m

 

And of course we haven't even discussed the many patients that have sustained long term health problems that will eventually succomb to COVID-19 down the road.

+ all the regular sick that can't get taken care of.

[Old guy]

I have no idea what the bug will do almaman. Look at it like acceleration and deceleration. As the epidemic grows, fed by ever increasing numbers of new cases, the number of deaths accelerates upwards. The disease itself has a specific natural history. A certain number of people, not all, go from (+) to clinical disease, a number of the people with clinical disease (not all) progress to respiratory failure. Let's say than less than 50% of those receiving ventilation recover. OK, so what do you have after this period of time. The ones that got the virus but not the disease develop immunity and recover, the ones that got the disease but not the respiratory failure develop immunity and recover, and the ones surviving the respiratory failure and ventilation also develop immunity  and recover. As this process goes on, the number of really susceptible cases in the population go down. The remaining susceptible people get the disease and either survive it or not. The outcomes places each individual going through this process into the recovered immune category or the dead category. There are many more recovered people with immunity in the mass of the population as this process takes place.

At the time when the number of immune recovered patients increases beyond a certain threshold, the transmission is interrupted to a degree, an interruption in transmission that keeps on growing as the numbers of immune people in the population at large grows. At that time, it really does not matter if you wear a plastic trash bag over you, gloves, and a mask and whether or not you keep social distance. The transmission rate goes down slowly at the beginning, much faster later on. Indeed the number of new cases accelerates downwards (decelerates). And this is where the fat lady comes out and sings. The epidemic is basically washed out. The low hanging fruit has been harvested by the bug. It is hard to for the bug to find new susceptible people to infect.

For the next wave to happen, the bug needs to mutate, become different, to have a chance to find suitable people to infect. This is hard because the bug remains a coronavirus with a lot of similarities with the bug that caused the epidemic in the first place. The bug is different or becomes different all right, but most likely not so much as to be able to spread like wildfire throughout the population  which by now will have a much higher level of immunity to the Corona that the first time around.

Do you get it? Up and down, acceleration and deceleration. Sure social distance, gloves and masks help, but the thing that really stops the epidemic is the relative lack of susceptible people with no immunity  to  it. This epidemic is coming down, no matter how many prayers for its continuation are raised to God's ears by all manner of really sick imbeciles that want it to continue killing people.

We are getting to the  tipping point, from here on the direction will be down. When is the tipping point? Whenever it happens. Does it make any  real difference to determine the exact date?

Dream happy dreams of shaking hands with your friends and enjoying a nice restaurant meal with your family. It is inevitable that this will happen. Those that believe in wave 2 believe in a Harry Potter style curse that will prove strong enough  to  overcome the barrier of increasing population immunity. It is so simple if you know the  basics, it is so difficult if you have to  listen to the  press and the hordes of idiots giving their personal opinions/wishes or the experts angling for increased funding.

The whole world has become a can of worms where lies and wishful thinking substitute for reality, and panic runs rampant everywhere. Is this your wish for the future? If it is you will eventually have to encase yourself inside something similar to a giant condom every time you go outside. Never fear, you  will not have to do this, herd immunity (which is what the process I described above is called) will take care of this epidemic, as it always does. It is just a matter of time, the epidemic will burn out by itself.

Now, according to courtside the second wave has already started in Singapore. Why Singapore, why not China where it all started?

[SLU_Lax]

Stop accusing people of cheering for the virus and rooting for death. Please. 
 

I see that your definition of what entails Wave 1 is every infection resulting from this strain of the virus. A mutation allowing those previously infected to once again get sick would be the end of the wave. You’d consider a sudden surge in cases (from this strain) that occurs months from now part of Wave 1. It is fine, what I meant was the disease starts to spread more rapidly again which is the more common understanding.

[glazedandconfused]

34 minutes ago, Old guy said:

I have no idea what the bug will do almaman. Look at it like acceleration and deceleration. As the epidemic grows, fed by ever increasing numbers of new cases, the number of deaths accelerates upwards. The disease itself has a specific natural history. A certain number of people, not all, go from (+) to clinical disease, a number of the people with clinical disease (not all) progress to respiratory failure. Let's say than less than 50% of those receiving ventilation recover. OK, so what do you have after this period of time. The ones that got the virus but not the disease develop immunity and recover, the ones that got the disease but not the respiratory failure develop immunity and recover, and the ones surviving the respiratory failure and ventilation also develop immunity  and recover. As this process goes on, the number of really susceptible cases in the population go down. The remaining susceptible people get the disease and either survive it or not. The outcomes places each individual going through this process into the recovered immune category or the dead category. There are many more recovered people with immunity in the mass of the population as this process takes place.

At the time when the number of immune recovered patients increases beyond a certain threshold, the transmission is interrupted to a degree, an interruption in transmission that keeps on growing as the numbers of immune people in the population at large grows. At that time, it really does not matter if you wear a plastic trash bag over you, gloves, and a mask and whether or not you keep social distance. The transmission rate goes down slowly at the beginning, much faster later on. Indeed the number of new cases accelerates downwards (decelerates). And this is where the fat lady comes out and sings. The epidemic is basically washed out. The low hanging fruit has been harvested by the bug. It is hard to for the bug to find new susceptible people to infect.

For the next wave to happen, the bug needs to mutate, become different, to have a chance to find suitable people to infect. This is hard because the bug remains a coronavirus with a lot of similarities with the bug that caused the epidemic in the first place. The bug is different or becomes different all right, but most likely not so much as to be able to spread like wildfire throughout the population  which by now will have a much higher level of immunity to the Corona that the first time around.

Do you get it? Up and down, acceleration and deceleration. Sure social distance, gloves and masks help, but the thing that really stops the epidemic is the relative lack of susceptible people with no immunity  to  it. This epidemic is coming down, no matter how many prayers for its continuation are raised to God's ears by all manner of really sick imbeciles that want it to continue killing people.

We are getting to the  tipping point, from here on the direction will be down. When is the tipping point? Whenever it happens. Does it make any  real difference to determine the exact date?

Dream happy dreams of shaking hands with your friends and enjoying a nice restaurant meal with your family. It is inevitable that this will happen. Those that believe in wave 2 believe in a Harry Potter style curse that will prove strong enough  to  overcome the barrier of increasing population immunity. It is so simple if you know the  basics, it is so difficult if you have to  listen to the  press and the hordes of idiots giving their personal opinions/wishes or the experts angling for increased funding.

The whole world has become a can of worms where lies and wishful thinking substitute for reality, and panic runs rampant everywhere. Is this your wish for the future? If it is you will eventually have to encase yourself inside something similar to a giant condom every time you go outside. Never fear, you  will not have to do this, herd immunity (which is what the process I described above is called) will take care of this epidemic, as it always does. It is just a matter of time, the epidemic will burn out by itself.

Now, according to courtside the second wave has already started in Singapore. Why Singapore, why not China where it all started?

Father time is undefeated.

[almaman]

1 hour ago, Old guy said:

I have no idea what the bug will do almaman. Look at it like acceleration and deceleration. As the epidemic grows, fed by ever increasing numbers of new cases, the number of deaths accelerates upwards. The disease itself has a specific natural history. A certain number of people, not all, go from (+) to clinical disease, a number of the people with clinical disease (not all) progress to respiratory failure. Let's say than less than 50% of those receiving ventilation recover. OK, so what do you have after this period of time. The ones that got the virus but not the disease develop immunity and recover, the ones that got the disease but not the respiratory failure develop immunity and recover, and the ones surviving the respiratory failure and ventilation also develop immunity  and recover. As this process goes on, the number of really susceptible cases in the population go down. The remaining susceptible people get the disease and either survive it or not. The outcomes places each individual going through this process into the recovered immune category or the dead category. There are many more recovered people with immunity in the mass of the population as this process takes place.

At the time when the number of immune recovered patients increases beyond a certain threshold, the transmission is interrupted to a degree, an interruption in transmission that keeps on growing as the numbers of immune people in the population at large grows. At that time, it really does not matter if you wear a plastic trash bag over you, gloves, and a mask and whether or not you keep social distance. The transmission rate goes down slowly at the beginning, much faster later on. Indeed the number of new cases accelerates downwards (decelerates). And this is where the fat lady comes out and sings. The epidemic is basically washed out. The low hanging fruit has been harvested by the bug. It is hard to for the bug to find new susceptible people to infect.

For the next wave to happen, the bug needs to mutate, become different, to have a chance to find suitable people to infect. This is hard because the bug remains a coronavirus with a lot of similarities with the bug that caused the epidemic in the first place. The bug is different or becomes different all right, but most likely not so much as to be able to spread like wildfire throughout the population  which by now will have a much higher level of immunity to the Corona that the first time around.

Do you get it? Up and down, acceleration and deceleration. Sure social distance, gloves and masks help, but the thing that really stops the epidemic is the relative lack of susceptible people with no immunity  to  it. This epidemic is coming down, no matter how many prayers for its continuation are raised to God's ears by all manner of really sick imbeciles that want it to continue killing people.

We are getting to the  tipping point, from here on the direction will be down. When is the tipping point? Whenever it happens. Does it make any  real difference to determine the exact date?

Dream happy dreams of shaking hands with your friends and enjoying a nice restaurant meal with your family. It is inevitable that this will happen. Those that believe in wave 2 believe in a Harry Potter style curse that will prove strong enough  to  overcome the barrier of increasing population immunity. It is so simple if you know the  basics, it is so difficult if you have to  listen to the  press and the hordes of idiots giving their personal opinions/wishes or the experts angling for increased funding.

The whole world has become a can of worms where lies and wishful thinking substitute for reality, and panic runs rampant everywhere. Is this your wish for the future? If it is you will eventually have to encase yourself inside something similar to a giant condom every time you go outside. Never fear, you  will not have to do this, herd immunity (which is what the process I described above is called) will take care of this epidemic, as it always does. It is just a matter of time, the epidemic will burn out by itself.

Now, according to courtside the second wave has already started in Singapore. Why Singapore, why not China where it all started?

down with Singapore I say