almaman Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 Typhoid Mary's everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARon Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 11 hours ago, billiken_roy said: but i am not a math major. No $&*t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
courtside Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 3,138 U.S. deaths by today's count. Almost 20% within the past 24 hours. Remember when South Korea and the United States had their first cases on the same day? South Korea has had 158 deaths thus far. rgbilliken and Zink like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnkielBreakers Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 A week ago on the 23rd, I read an article claiming that 500,000 people had the Coronavirus. It seemed a bit high, so I stress checked with basic analysis. Here it is for all of you: 593 deaths, with the average rate of death at 1%. So, as of the time these individuals contracted the disease, there were at least 50,000 people with the disease. Right? So, then I looked at how long it takes for this disease to kill. 21 days is listed in at least 1 source. However, I decided to use a more conservative 15 days as a nice guess for an average (if someone wants to look this up, feel free). Then I estimated the growth rate, which no one truly knows, though there is a lot of information thrown out and available. Unchecked, the virus could grow at >25% (doubling every 3 days). I felt like this was too high for my calculation, so I used 15%, which I have seen on the lower end of growth. Sure enough, using my conservative calculations, I came up with 400,000. That is pretty scary. Using the higher numbers, the totals are too unbelievable. Please let me know if something is obviously wrong with this approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 Well guys and gilrs, not all is dark and threatening in this world. I just got a copy of an article to be published by Elsenvier, which, despite its small size, shows a good reduction of the virus load in Covid-19 patients treated with Hydroxychloroquine. They also tested combination therapy with Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin (a commonly use URI antibiotic derived from Erythromycin) that shows a much greater reduction of the viral load in these patients. The link to the article's PDF is here: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920300996 The central concept is (as is the case in most infections) that the lower the viral load the body has to fight, the easier it is for the body to bring it under control and heal. This is good enough to treat people actively with this combination of meds and should help reduce the death toll significantly. This is a real study with controls, and even if it is small it is a proper study with very good results. There is light out coming into the tunnel for a change, we MAY be coming close to the other end. As a word of caution, there are patients that arrive for care in a very advanced stage, many of these patients may die despite all therapeutic intervention attempted. Do not pop the bubbly yet, but it might be nice if you put your bottle in the fridge. We may be getting closer to controlling this bug. Again this here is a proper study with very promising results. Remember there are no guarantees in health care, people die despite all attempts to achieve the opposite outcome. However, this looks good, at least to me, as of now. AnkielBreakers. This is a nice attempt, based upon your estimates and compromises of data picked from a field full of unknowns. You may or may not be correct, but this will depend upon a large number of factors. When it is all said and done, the total of dead bodies counted and confirmed to have died of this disease will tell the real story. You all know my estimate. The article linked above may help in keeping the death toll a lot lower than that. It is wait and see now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG BILL FAN Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 30 minutes ago, Old guy said: Well guys and gilrs, not all is dark and threatening in this world. I just got a copy of an article to be published by Elsenvier, which, despite its small size, shows a good reduction of the virus load in Covid-19 patients treated with Hydroxychloroquine. They also tested combination therapy with Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin (a commonly use URI antibiotic derived from Erythromycin) that shows a much greater reduction of the viral load in these patients. The link to the article's PDF is here: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920300996 The central concept is (as is the case in most infections) that the lower the viral load the body has to fight, the easier it is for the body to bring it under control and heal. This is good enough to treat people actively with this combination of meds and should help reduce the death toll significantly. This is a real study with controls, and even if it is small it is a proper study with very good results. There is light out coming into the tunnel for a change, we MAY be coming close to the other end. As a word of caution, there are patients that arrive for care in a very advanced stage, many of these patients may die despite all therapeutic intervention attempted. Do not pop the bubbly yet, but it might be nice if you put your bottle in the fridge. We may be getting closer to controlling this bug. Again this here is a proper study with very promising results. Remember there are no guarantees in health care, people die despite all attempts to achieve the opposite outcome. However, this looks good, at least to me, as of now. AnkielBreakers. This is a nice attempt, based upon your estimates and compromises of data picked from a field full of unknowns. You may or may not be correct, but this will depend upon a large number of factors. When it is all said and done, the total of dead bodies counted and confirmed to have died of this disease will tell the real story. You all know my estimate. The article linked above may help in keeping the death toll a lot lower than that. It is wait and see now. stunning, are you saying the "evil orange man" was right about trying it???? billiken_roy likes this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheltiedave Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 11 hours ago, Sheltiedave said: The orange man didn’t know anything about Quine until a doctor told him it was a horse on the course. This May be a blessing. Old guy likes this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiseAndGrind Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 @Old guy is this the same guy? https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.rfi.fr/en/france/20200329-french-expert-says-second-study-shows-malaria-drug-helps-fight-coronavirus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiseAndGrind Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, BIG BILL FAN said: stunning, are you saying the "evil orange man" was right about trying it???? You are a crazy person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HenryB Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 5 minutes ago, RiseAndGrind said: You are a crazy person. You haven't read all the criticism Trump received for suggesting it was a potential help? He has been crucified by some for bringing it up. There has more than one study that has been hopeful. Be fair. billiken_roy likes this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenbill Posted March 31, 2020 Author Share Posted March 31, 2020 14 minutes ago, BIG BILL FAN said: stunning, are you saying the "evil orange man" was right about trying it???? A stopped clock is right twice a day which is two more times than pResident Covid-45 is ever right about anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiseAndGrind Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, HenryB said: You haven't read all the criticism Trump received for suggesting it was a potential help? He has been crucified by some for bringing it up. There has more than one study that has been hopeful. Be fair. I shouldn't have said that. you are correct - it was not productive. For the record I hope to high heaven Trump and this scientist are right. I would love to be back to normal ASAP. billiken_roy likes this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HenryB Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 1 minute ago, billikenbill said: A stopped clock is right twice a day which is two more times than President Covid-45 is ever right about anything. He hasn't been right about ANYTHING....really? You sure are making the case for the who have been complaining about fake news. billiken_roy likes this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenbill Posted March 31, 2020 Author Share Posted March 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, HenryB said: He hasn't been right about ANYTHING....really? You sure are making the case for the who have been complaining about fake news. Eff you. He’s an orange stain on humanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HenryB Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, billikenbill said: Eff you. He’s an orange stain on humanity. Keeping it real classy again I see. If comments like that aren't enough reason to close this thread then I don't know what is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 I thought we were going to keep politics out of this discussion. What does it really matter who was right or who was wrong? The important thing is to get this bug under control and to keep the death toll as low as possible. The faster we do this the better it will be for the economy and the people. To make clear what I would love to see happening as soon as possible, it goes like this: I'd love to see people being able to go back to work, and kids go back to school. I would love to see traffic in the street even with rush hours and all of that. I would love to go to my favorite restaurants and enjoy a nice steak and potatoes in some form. I would still love to see the Bills ending the A10 tournament and going into the Dance, this year if at all possible. I would love to see the shows I had bought tickets for and refused a refund for when cancelled, choosing instead to give the money as a donation. I would love to be able to shake hands with my friends, and to go to Church with no fear of exposure. However this is achieved, it is fine with me. Let's get first things first instead of letting this sink into a universe of hate, recrimination, and blame finding. Let's put this episode in the rearview mirror. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG BILL FAN Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 18 minutes ago, billikenbill said: A stopped clock is right twice a day which is two more times than pResident Covid-45 is ever right about anything. thanks for proving the hate the left has for our President....my goodness, you can't credit him with anything....you're probably part of the crowd that called him a racist for shutting down travel with China at the end of January....... https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/19/trump-slash-red-tape-to-find-coronavirus-drugs-137575 'Bad advice from the president': Trump touts unproven coronavirus drugs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheeseman Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 If this quine drug works then great but we have to understand that you do not start using a drug for another purpose without testing and making sure that you will not do more harm. There have been plenty of examples where drug companies have tried to re purpose drugs for a new use and it has backfired. The problem when Trump brought this up he was advocating using it without proper testing - in other words immediately. . To do so is not prudent and just because someone picks the 100-1 odd horse to win and it does does not make him an expert bettor. rgbilliken and SLU_Lax like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenbill Posted March 31, 2020 Author Share Posted March 31, 2020 You people support a proven liar who lies about his lies. You promote a party and a right wing media that promotes division and hate. Drumpf is a proven crook who should’ve been locked up years ago. If that’s what you like and support, then you’re no better than the leader you worship. That’s the last I have to say about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dennis_w Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, cheeseman said: If this quine drug works then great but we have to understand that you do not start using a drug for another purpose without testing and making sure that you will not do more harm. There have been plenty of examples where drug companies have tried to re purpose drugs for a new use and it has backfired. The problem when Trump brought this up he was advocating using it without proper testing - in other words immediately. . To do so is not prudent and just because someone picks the 100-1 odd horse to win and it does does not make him an expert bettor. As the doctors on this board can attest, medicines are often prescribed off label. this is a common practice. Trump did not give this medicine to patients, he suggested that it showed promise and hoped it would work. He also at the same time said he could be wrong, but hoped he wasnt. billiken_roy likes this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
courtside Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 1 hour ago, Old guy said: Well guys and gilrs, not all is dark and threatening in this world. I just got a copy of an article to be published by Elsenvier, which, despite its small size, shows a good reduction of the virus load in Covid-19 patients treated with Hydroxychloroquine. They also tested combination therapy with Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin (a commonly use URI antibiotic derived from Erythromycin) that shows a much greater reduction of the viral load in these patients. The link to the article's PDF is here: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920300996 The central concept is (as is the case in most infections) that the lower the viral load the body has to fight, the easier it is for the body to bring it under control and heal. This is good enough to treat people actively with this combination of meds and should help reduce the death toll significantly. This is a real study with controls, and even if it is small it is a proper study with very good results. There is light out coming into the tunnel for a change, we MAY be coming close to the other end. As a word of caution, there are patients that arrive for care in a very advanced stage, many of these patients may die despite all therapeutic intervention attempted. Do not pop the bubbly yet, but it might be nice if you put your bottle in the fridge. We may be getting closer to controlling this bug. Again this here is a proper study with very promising results. Remember there are no guarantees in health care, people die despite all attempts to achieve the opposite outcome. However, this looks good, at least to me, as of now. AnkielBreakers. This is a nice attempt, based upon your estimates and compromises of data picked from a field full of unknowns. You may or may not be correct, but this will depend upon a large number of factors. When it is all said and done, the total of dead bodies counted and confirmed to have died of this disease will tell the real story. You all know my estimate. The article linked above may help in keeping the death toll a lot lower than that. It is wait and see now. Peak isn't coming for a while. You keep touting 26,000 dead as if it is a good or great number. It's not. The United States and South Korea had first cases on the same day. The responses since by both have been very telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 14 minutes ago, courtside said: Peak isn't coming for a while. You keep touting 26,000 dead as if it is a good or great number. It's not. The United States and South Korea had first cases on the same day. The responses since by both have been very telling. yet you seem unfazed by the 10's of thousands more that die each year from the flu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BilliesBy40 Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 27 minutes ago, BIG BILL FAN said: thanks for proving the hate the left has for our President....my goodness, you can't credit him with anything....you're probably part of the crowd that called him a racist for shutting down travel with China at the end of January....... https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/19/trump-slash-red-tape-to-find-coronavirus-drugs-137575 'Bad advice from the president': Trump touts unproven coronavirus drugs The problem a lot of people have with him is his approach. If this ends up leading to a vaccine or treatment, he'll personally take credit. If it doesn't, he'll point the finger and lie about ever touting it. billikenbill likes this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
courtside Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 11 minutes ago, billiken_roy said: yet you seem unfazed by the 10's of thousands more that die each year from the flu. No, I am not unfazed. We have had an administrative, colossal failure of response to COVID-19. It did not need to be anywhere near as bad as it is getting and is going to get. I take issue with saying 26,000 U.S. dead, (not even mentioning globally) is a good thing or number. It isn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 It seems like some people on both sides are rooting for results that are best for their preferred political beliefs instead of what is best for the country. Sheltiedave, AGB91, TheDude and 1 other like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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