SLU & NCAA Corona Virus Discussion

[RiseAndGrind]

11 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

what are you talking about?  there arent even 2600 total deaths across america?   there are 10 x that number of flu deaths and by the tone of your question you are saying that 26,000 flu deaths in the last six months didnt cause this deep freeze problem but 2600 chinese flu virus deaths did?   that makes no sense.  

Do you you know they are setting up hospital beds in Central Park? 

Do you think that the media has caused the massive issues in the hospital? Is that what you are saying? 

EDIT: This sounds adversarial. I am just curious. I don't follow. 

[Old guy]

I looked at the estimates. This is not an article that describes methods and discusses results, it is just a number obtained in who knows what way and using who knows what assumptions. The death estimate from the "flu burden" is between 24,000 and 62,000. This is a huge range with no definition at all. Like we would say in the business, you can drive a truck between the low and high estimates. There are many questions, of course, Covid presents as a "flu like illness" but has a different outcome. Is Covid included in this "flu burden" estimate or not? I know this comes from CDC but nevertheless it is at best a very rough and quite unscientific ball park mortality estimate.

This estimate is there for all to see and either comfort or scare you to pieces, you figure out which one. This is, of course not the very best they can do. The closest you are going to get to reality is by checking MMWR (Mortality and Morbidity Weekly Review), this is a publication of CDC which is available free of charge.

Again, believe what you want.

[moytoy12]

7 minutes ago, dennis_w said:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387?fbclid=IwAR20-E6RbIBjz5kDWJ3gdrYtnyNYYSMPKWsGY9NRc805Mnd4eh8j11O94Eo

Thanks for posting.  The crux of the issue and why we are "overreacting" when compared to the flu is the following:

"The efficiency of transmission for any respiratory virus has important implications for containment and mitigation strategies. The current study indicates an estimated basic reproduction number (R0) of 2.2, which means that, on average, each infected person spreads the infection to an additional two persons. As the authors note, until this number falls below 1.0, it is likely that the outbreak will continue to spread. Recent reports of high titers of virus in the oropharynx early in the course of disease arouse concern about increased infectivity during the period of minimal symptoms."

Additionally, the incubation period for the two are drastically different. The flu's incubation period is generally 1-5 days, whereas Covid19 is generally 1-14 days.

These are the two main factors for why we are taking the actions we are taking.  We are dealing with something that generally hangs around in an individual for 2-3x longer AND is twice as infectious.  

[Spoon-Balls]

46 minutes ago, SLU_Lax said:

One of my direct reports has lupus and has been unable to get a refill due to reduced inventory levels. 

Absolutely foucking horrible. And these Pharma companies all of a sudden have no problem donating millions of doses of the drug for people stocking up out of fear and misinformation, when there are countless people who need it to manage Lupus. 

[billiken_roy]

5 minutes ago, moytoy12 said:

Thanks for posting.  The crux of the issue and why we are "overreacting" when compared to the flu is the following:

"The efficiency of transmission for any respiratory virus has important implications for containment and mitigation strategies. The current study indicates an estimated basic reproduction number (R0) of 2.2, which means that, on average, each infected person spreads the infection to an additional two persons. As the authors note, until this number falls below 1.0, it is likely that the outbreak will continue to spread. Recent reports of high titers of virus in the oropharynx early in the course of disease arouse concern about increased infectivity during the period of minimal symptoms."

Additionally, the incubation period for the two are drastically different. The flu's incubation period is generally 1-5 days, whereas Covid19 is generally 1-14 days.

These are the two main factors for why we are taking the actions we are taking.  We are dealing with something that generally hangs around in an individual for 2-3x longer AND is twice as infectious.  

so you are ok with 10's of thousands more deaths by other sicknesses for years and years and no  similar reactions by the media or medical community?

[courtside]

40 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

no i just want someone to convincingly tell me why we do nothing all these years for different health scenarios and all at once this year it's the end of the world and we shut down the country and drift into a depression.    just explain what is so different that justifies the reaction.   

High infection rate. High mortality rate. No treatments yet, no vaccines yet. That is why.

[billiken_roy]

3 minutes ago, courtside said:

High infection rate. High mortality rate. No treatments yet, no vaccines yet. That is why.

like i said above, i must not be good at math because i see a lot more flu deaths over the season then what we are on pace to see with this chinese flu virus through the expected end of it by the end of may.   

[courtside]

3 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

like i said above, i must not be good at math because i see a lot more flu deaths over the season then what we are on pace to see with this chinese flu virus through the expected end of it by the end of may.   

Here is Dr. Fauci discussing millions of cases and 100k to 200k deaths. And most importantly, that is only if all of the actions we are now taking. Otherwise it would be millions dead if we did nothing. Maybe you aren't good at math as you said.

[Old guy]

Moytoy, the NEJM report is a brief overview of a number of articles cited in the refernces. The one that originated the actual R0 number cited is #7, also a NEJM article to be found at this link:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001737

This is a report of several admissions to an ICU, and contains data about the clinical progressio of the disease, but no epidemiological data. I went over this article (original source cited for the quote) and found no mention of an R0 number anywhere.

There was a second source, also from the NEJM, cited for this quote, here is the link:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191

This is a report of a single case admitted to the Providence Regional Medical Center in  Washington. This is a detailed report of this patient who had recently returned from China. Again, there was no epidemiological data provided and no R0 number cited.

There are a lot of medical reports which contain supposed data that just donot appear in the original articles quoted. I have no doubt there is valid data about the R0 of this virus, but it is not to be found in the two articles cited as providing the information used to write the paragraph you are quoting. Please review the articles linked and let me know if you find an R0 number there. Therefore the key message of the quoted paragraph is just not affirmed by the sources used and has to be taken with a great deal of doubt.

I had mentioned MMWR as a valid reference source, it can be found here:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6912-H.pdf

This is a link to the current issue of MMWR, March 27th.

Do not feel bad about stuff like this, the information gathered is fractionated among a jillion sources and is hard to put together in a reasonable fashion. Attempts to do  so must follow strict origin identification that then may be followed and check for methods used, etc... It is not journalism that is sought, this is real stuff that we are after.

 

 

[Billiken Rich]

1 hour ago, Cowboy said:

-talking 60 Minutes, Lara Logan was super hot...

-this thread needed a distraction

This thread needs to die a painful death

[moytoy12]

1 minute ago, Old guy said:

There are a lot of medical reports which contain supposed data that just donot appear in the original articles quoted. I have no doubt there is valid data about the R0 of this virus, but it is not to be found in the two articles cited as providing the information used to write the paragraph you are quoting. Please review the articles linked and let me know if you find an R0 number there. Therefore the key message of the quoted paragraph is just not affirmed by the sources used and has to be taken with a great deal of doubt.

 

 

Thank you for the feedback.  Based on what we know right now, would you say that when compared to the seasonal flu Covid19 is generally more contagious, more deadly, and it has a greater potential to overwhelm our health care system?  

[Old guy]

Again I would be shooting from the hip. The transmission rate may well be similar to that of the flu, the mortality is yet to be determined. The reason to say this is that every country, and even every  region of each country may have different transmission rates (R0) and mortality rates (IFR), based upon differences in medical care available, population density, prevalence of malnourishment, and similar factors. Of course health care infrastructure can be overwhelmed. This is easier to  do in rural areas where resources are scarce. One factor to prevent overwhelming the available local resources that I asssume is in use, perhaps erroneously, is the use of air evac. Most certainly the activation of the military will bring into play a vastly increased capability to transfer very sick patients to areas where resources are available.

I reviewed my prior post and added a link to  the latest issue of MMWR, again the information provided is fractional but numbers and articles are presented of a range of disorders every week allowing comparisons to be made. It may be hard to make sense of, but it does provide an overview of the  whole country and specific diseases.

I know it is difficult my friend, I know that very well. I also know that we all mean well for the people and the country. All the best and please continue your efforts to learn about this field.

[Pistol]

35 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

so you are ok with 10's of thousands more deaths by other sicknesses for years and years and no  similar reactions by the media or medical community?

No one said they're okay with flu deaths. No one.

You have had your questions answered dozens of times in this thread.

There is media coverage of the flu every year - not nearly enough. Most people don't pay attention to it. The medical community communicates the resources necessary to fight it every year, and most people don't pay attention.

When you're arguing both that regular seasonal flu deaths aren't valued as much as COVID-19 deaths and that we should "reopen" the economy immediately, you're arguing against yourself.

Also, why are you so mad at the media that you don't even consume? How do you know they're covering it a certain way if you won't even read/watch/listen to them?

[billiken_roy]

25 minutes ago, courtside said:

Here is Dr. Fauci discussing millions of cases and 100k to 200k deaths. And most importantly, that is only if all of the actions we are now taking. Otherwise it would be millions dead if we did nothing. Maybe you aren't good at math as you said.

So fauci's word is gospel?   All i know the death toll better pick up if we are to go from 2600 to 200,000 in the next 2 months.  

[Old guy]

Roy, Fauci's word is not gospel, he is not even remotely related to the Lord in Heaven and has no supernatural powers. I have never dealt with the media, but I have provided expert testimony during trial and it is difficult to maintain a line of reasoning in the face of expert cross examination. All that aside, if he says (like I did) that the number of dead bodies will be below 26,000 and it turns out the real number is 100,000, he is going to be in trouble. On the other hand, if he  says the total number of dead may go up to 200,000 and the real number is 100,000 then he will receiver part of the glory for controlling the epidemic.

Numbers are let's say elastic. You want to be in the side of the estimate that will produce fame and glory for yourself once the epidemic is over.

[billiken_roy]

1 minute ago, Old guy said:

 On the other hand, if he  says the total number of dead may go up to 200,000 and the real number is 100,000 then he will receiver part of the glory for controlling the epidemic.

 

Ha.   Go for the glory.   Damn the hysteria

[Old guy]

Every public figure does it one way or the other, some are better at it than others. This has been going on since the dawn of time. We are all sinners, remember?

[cheeseman]

1 hour ago, billiken_roy said:

no i just want someone to convincingly tell me why we do nothing all these years for different health scenarios and all at once this year it's the end of the world and we shut down the country and drift into a depression.    just explain what is so different that justifies the reaction.   

Roy, we do do things every year to lessen the flu virus.  We encourage people to get the vaccine, we tell them to stay home if they are sick, and we close businesses and schools if the people in them have a high number of sickness - usually when the numbers start to exceed 20% people in charge start contemplating when to shut down.  Schools for instance usually close on a Thursday or a Friday so they can take advantage of the weekend to keep people away from each other.  As far as the economy goes, some can not put a dollar value on a life but apparently you can.  Now I have answered your question but I doubt you will be satisfied.  Roy be safe.

[courtside]

10 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Roy, Fauci's word is not gospel, he is not even remotely related to the Lord in Heaven and has no supernatural powers. I have never dealt with the media, but I have provided expert testimony during trial and it is difficult to maintain a line of reasoning in the face of expert cross examination. All that aside, if he says (like I did) that the number of dead bodies will be below 26,000 and it turns out the real number is 100,000, he is going to be in trouble. On the other hand, if he  says the total number of dead may go up to 200,000 and the real number is 100,000 then he will receiver part of the glory for controlling the epidemic.

Numbers are let's say elastic. You want to be in the side of the estimate that will produce fame and glory for yourself once the epidemic is over.

Let's also just remind people that 26k is a significant number that could have been less had things gone differently earlier in the crisis. ...while we are questioning Fauci and others. And again these are projected numbers only if we take all of the current precautions. Otherwise they would be significantly higher.

[billiken_roy]

11 minutes ago, cheeseman said:

Roy, we do do things every year to lessen the flu virus.  We encourage people to get the vaccine, we tell them to stay home if they are sick, and we close businesses and schools if the people in them have a high number of sickness - usually when the numbers start to exceed 20% people in charge start contemplating when to shut down.  Schools for instance usually close on a Thursday or a Friday so they can take advantage of the weekend to keep people away from each other.  As far as the economy goes, some can not put a dollar value on a life but apparently you can.  Now I have answered your question but I doubt you will be satisfied.  Roy be safe.

you are right.  i want to know why we never shut the country down for the flu?   you never told me.   

[Sheltiedave]

The Marine Corps has closed the boot camp pipeline at Parris Island, SC for the interim. The Navy may soon follow with their boot camps. The Navy now has all outbound sea deployments doing 15-21 day fast cruises at the pier, to ensure no infected personnel are on board prior to departure.

All military bases are to transition to medical monitor screening prior to entering base, and most Army posts will be soon switching to requiring all personnel to stay on post 24-7. All transfers and transports back stateside have been closed for 90 days.

[Old guy]

9 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

you are right.  i want to know why we never shut the country down for the flu?   you never told me.   

For some reason they never did in 1918 and there was a real reason to do it at that time. We have not had anything similar to that, other than the polyomyelitis scare of the 1950s. Which was a peculiar one and which ended with the widespread production and use of polyo vaccine. The thing with polyo that set it appart was that in all prior times little children all caught it and got over with no damage. However, it became clear that if you developed polyo after your immune system was fully developed, the immune reaction to the polyo was the factor that messed you up neurologically. The country had a panic in the 1950s, but again never locked down. The next  widespread panic was in the late 1980s with HIV, again the country was not closed down. We have entered new territory here with Covid.

[Sheltiedave]

And regardless of what anyone thinks about the political/economic/hoax/medical situation, I pray they figure out and distribute a wildly successful vaccine, because without it we could possibly lose what should be a monstrously successful season. Here is to a great vaccine!

[almaman]

30 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Every public figure does it one way or the other, some are better at it than others. This has been going on since the dawn of time. We are all sinners, remember?

 

what about people who live in these?

 

 

 

 

 

[courtside]

1 minute ago, almaman said:

 

what about people who live in these?

 

 

 

 

 

It was 30 days ago that the President of the United States said there are only 15 cases in the U.S. and within a couple of days the number would be close to zero. Is he spinning it correctly in the Old Guy school of spin?