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SLU & NCAA Corona Virus Discussion


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1 minute ago, RiseAndGrind said:

Are you going to make sure people don't leave NYC? Or Florida? Or Seattle? Or Louisiana? People move throughout the Country. 

And on the other side of that coin, it's been reported that of the 1.4 million ppl in Palm Beach County, only 1200 coronavirus tests have been conducted.  So under this "allow some places to open up" theory, it would likely be considered a low risk county.  Lord knows how many infected untested people from that county would spread the virus.  

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6 minutes ago, NH said:

Pandemics don’t have an ethnicity. That is not the name of the virus. That name only serves to increase xenophobia and harassment towards Asian-Americans living in our country. If you need to change the name of the virus to “Chinese flu” to make yourself feel better about it, then that’s one of the more immature reactions I can imagine having.

You are making accusations about Roy that you cannot back up because you have no idea why Roy is saying this, it’s just your feelings.

Here are some facts, it came from China, China suppressed the information and the world has suffered because of it.  China also said the virus was caused by American soldiers and many of us do not like that.

This is about disliking the Chinese government not the Chinese people or any Asians.

I work with several H1B immigrants most are from China and India and the great majority are very delightful people and I wish for them a chance to be citizens one day so when I say Chinese virus it’s my protest of the Chinese government and not the people.

We need to think the best of each other and quit fighting each other.  We are all Americans and more importantly team blue fans.

For the respect of Steve I try to stay away from politics because this site is not about hating and politics it is about posters having one thing in common that no matter who we are politically we have team blue in common.

Happy Friday stay well

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8 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

prior to yesterday the largest one week new unemployment filings record wasnt even close to yesterday.   650,000 claims was the highest ever.   yesterday we had a report that showed 3.3 million filings.   we are on the doorstep of disaster.   none of us lived through the great depression.   the stories that has been passed down are horrible conditions.   to think that wont happen is naive.  

i am not saying open the entire world.   there is ways to strategically open areas as they are deemed safe or not in as much trouble as areas like spain, nyc, italy etc.   also, it is apparent that americans have now gotten the message and are being more cautious and proactive in taking care to not spread the virus.   surely americans that know they are sick and contageous for the most part can do the right thing.   yes all need to be safe, but we also have to get back to work.   this drags on for months we are in trouble big time.  

Those people already are doing the right thing. Unfortunately it’s the 1000’s of people who have no idea they are infected that are spreading the disease.

I hear ya when it comes to the economy Roy. It’s a huge problem and something needs to be done.

I just don’t think there is an easy answer here. Every idea that has been floated about has massive problems that come along with it. 
This is new territory and I’m not sure there is one right answer.

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37 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

in my view, it started in china, it is another strain of the flu and it is a virus.   

Regardless of whether or not you think it should be inflammatory to use that language, it is. It distracts from your other points and to no benefit. We might as well return to calling HIV/AIDS by the name Gay Cancer because it was first identified in the gay community and caused purple tumors to appear on the skin. 
 

Either way, I always enjoy your posts. I think you drive a lot of good discussions. I just think fighting about the name or using a non-medical name for the disease is distracting. 

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2 minutes ago, dlarry said:

Those people already are doing the right thing. Unfortunately it’s the 1000’s of people who have no idea they are infected that are spreading the disease.

I hear ya when it comes to the economy Roy. It’s a huge problem and something needs to be done.

I just don’t think there is an easy answer here. Every idea that has been floated about has massive problems that come along with it. 
This is new territory and I’m not sure there is one right answer.

exactly.   it needs to be a discussion.   so many just dont want to even talk about a solution and that is what is scaring me.   we cant hide in bunkers forever.   imo, we cant hide in our bunkers for 2 more months.  or even shorter.   

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3 minutes ago, SLU_Lax said:

Regardless of whether or not you think it should be inflammatory to use that language, it is. It distracts from your other points and to no benefit. We might as well return to calling HIV/AIDS by the name Gay Cancer because it was first identified in the gay community and caused purple tumors to appear on the skin. 
 

Either way, I always enjoy your posts. I think you drive a lot of good discussions. I just think fighting about the name or using a non-medical name for the disease is distracting. 

i heard you the first time!   😆

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11 minutes ago, CBFan said:

You are making accusations about Roy that you cannot back up because you have no idea why Roy is saying this, it’s just your feelings.

Here are some facts, it came from China, China suppressed the information and the world has suffered because of it.  China also said the virus was caused by American soldiers and many of us do not like that.

This is about disliking the Chinese government not the Chinese people or any Asians.

I work with several H1B immigrants most are from China and India and the great majority are very delightful people and I wish for them a chance to be citizens one day so when I say Chinese virus it’s my protest of the Chinese government and not the people.

We need to think the best of each other and quit fighting each other.  We are all Americans and more importantly team blue fans.

For the respect of Steve I try to stay away from politics because this site is not about hating and politics it is about posters having one thing in common that no matter who we are politically we have team blue in common.

Happy Friday stay well

I made zero accusations about Roy. I made accusations about the purposes that the phrase he used serves.

I agree this should not be about politics, and it should not be about fighting people. Using the term “Chinese Virus”, whether intentionally or not, serves the purpose of (i) politicizing the pandemic and (ii) increasing division within our own country. I am not taking a political stance by making this claim. 

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8 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

exactly.   it needs to be a discussion.   so many just dont want to even talk about a solution and that is what is scaring me.   we cant hide in bunkers forever.   imo, we cant hide in our bunkers for 2 more months.  or even shorter.   

In order to come out of our bunkers testing capacity needs to be ramped up dramatically.  Otherwise, you're just dousing one hot spot of a forest fire which fails because there are sparks in other places not being tended to.

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On 3/22/2020 at 9:02 PM, Sheltiedave said:

Big Bill Fan, the virus vector was not driven principally by immigration nor by seasonal workers, it was brought back mainly by family members visiting China, being in the hot zones, getting infected, and returning home to Italy.

Once the virus vector hits an unvaccinated population, with zero immunity, it becomes a pure exponential biological model.

While Italy has 20 million more people, public transit and population densities are fairly similar in most of the ten largest cities in both.

Italy has 8.21 million people in Rome, Milan, Naples, Turin, Palermo, Genoa, bologna, Florence, bari, and Catania.

California has 9.91 million people in LA, San Diego, San Jose, San Francisco, Fresno, Sacramento, Long Beach, Oakland, Bakersfield, and Anaheim.

California has a lower population density outside it’s urban areas, but a larger population density inside its urban areas, with significant travel between them. 
We aren’t arguing facts, we are arguing which presentation of facts leads to a better understanding of how the virus/infection spread, and how to model possible spread in the US.

The Italian model is unfortunately being mimicked in Washington and New York. We will know in more complete detail as testing drills deeper into the epidemic.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-data-logarithm-chart.amp.html

Good article - thanks for sharing

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1 hour ago, billiken_roy said:

this morning on the radio i heard that 3% of the nationwide restaurants and bars will never reopen and each week that we remain in this holed up in our basements self imposed quarantine more will shutter.   when the small businesses of america are permanently shutting down that is not a good thing.   we are headed for 1930's depression like days if america doesnt get back to work.   deaths from suicide, crime etc will far exceed this chinese flu virus if it gets that bad.  pick your poison. 

I have talked with my daughter about this issue - she manages large pension funds so she has some credibility - she agrees with me that while some restaurants and bars will probably close and not reopen they will be replaced with others - people when this is over will not stop going out to eat.  Granted it will take a bit longer to back fill but it will happen and perhaps faster than you think.  I just disagree with your repeating of Trump's non factual statements and lets just leave it at that.

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2 minutes ago, cheeseman said:

I have talked with my daughter about this issue - she manages large pension funds so she has some credibility - she agrees with me that while some restaurants and bars will probably close and not reopen they will be replaced with others - people when this is over will not stop going out to eat.  Granted it will take a bit longer to back fill but it will happen and perhaps faster than you think.  I just disagree with your repeating of Trump's non factual statements and lets just leave it at that.

 

2 minutes ago, cheeseman said:

I have talked with my daughter about this issue - she manages large pension funds so she has some credibility - she agrees with me that while some restaurants and bars will probably close and not reopen they will be replaced with others - people when this is over will not stop going out to eat.  Granted it will take a bit longer to back fill but it will happen and perhaps faster than you think.  I just disagree with your repeating of Trump's non factual statements and lets just leave it at that.

what Trump non factual statements???? seems to be a question that no one likes to answer......

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5 minutes ago, BIG BILL FAN said:

 

what Trump non factual statements???? seems to be a question that no one likes to answer......

 

(Stock market is not great)

Or like that time he said we had a total of 15 cases and pretty soon it was going to zero?

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On 3/23/2020 at 7:22 AM, SLU_Nick said:

It seems like over the weekend the overall tone has changed somewhat.  A lot of people are starting to ask how many lives will be lost due to a 35% unemployment rate.

Then it looks like Pres Trump tweeted out last night (in all caps of course) - "We cannot let the cure be worse than the problem".  I also read that New York is allowing that malaria drug to be administered to treat Covid starting today.  The death rate seems not to be getting exponential on us and it seems like conditions in Washington state are improving.  I say "it seems" because I cannot keep straight what is actual info with all the slanted takes out there based on whatever viewpoint in the news you are looking for.

It also seems that the GOP Senate really does not want to send people monthly checks.  That seems to be the problem with the, "give a mouse a cookie" and having the govt float checks in the mail for rent/bills/etc of the normal American.  If people realize that the gov't can actually do things like this on a mass scale, it becomes very hard to take it away and stop the country from moving left on the spectrum.  I think GOP senate leadership will resist that at all costs.  I think they'd prefer to open up the economy and let Covid run its course.  So they will stick to the bailouts for corporations, loans, etc.... and the Dems will continue to be somehow blamed for any inaction, bc their ability to put out a coherent message is about equal to French at the free throw line.

This is the problem with our society these days, people have this rigid ideological belief that providing an economic floor for people (a la UBI) will somehow completely eliminate any motivation to work, when there is no evidence whatsoever that that is the case. Alaska has had a form of UBI running for years and it's worked out great for them. 

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2 hours ago, BIG BILL FAN said:

tell that to Governor Cuomo who is now having second thoughts on how he should have handled the crisis....maybe the evil orange man is smarter than some are giving credit to....

https://nypost.com/2020/03/26/cuomo-admits-that-quarantine-may-have-backfired-in-some-cases/

 

Sweeping statewide quarantine orders may not have been the most effective strategy to combat the coronavirus, Gov. Andrew Cuomo conceded on Thursday, as he weighed plans to restart the economy.

“We closed everything down. That was our public health strategy,” said Cuomo during an Albany press briefing. “If you re-thought that or had time to analyze that public health strategy, I don’t know that you would say ‘Quarantine everyone.'”

It’s the third day in a row that Cuomo has publicly mused about quarantines and how best to eventually restart the Empire State’s shattered economy.

But Wednesday, Cuomo’s answer during an hour-long news conference about quarantines — which are backed by city and state health officials — took a new turn as he speculated it might have spread the disease.

“I don’t even know that that was the best public health policy. Young people then quarantined with older people, [it] was probably not the best public health strategy,” he said. “The younger people could have been exposing the older people to an infection.”

So far, New York has clocked 37,258 confirmed cases and 385 deaths from COVID-19.

Cuomo’s office said the governor was referencing a study by a Yale professor, who wrote a column that appeared in the opinion section of the New York Times last week.

They pointed The Post to nearly identical comments Cuomo made about the topic during a press conference Monday, when he explicitly named the piece’s author, Dr. David Katz.

“There’s a theory of risk stratification that Dr. Katz who’s at Yale University is working on, which is actually very interesting to me,” Cuomo told reporters then. “Isolate people but really isolate the vulnerable people. Don’t isolate everyone because some people, most people, are not vulnerable to it.”

He added: “And if you isolate all people, you may be actually exposing the more vulnerable people by bringing in a person who is healthier and stronger and who may have been exposed to the virus, right.”

Cuomo has frequently countered his quarantine remarks by criticizing President Trump’s push to get business reopened by Easter, warning that the apex of the coronavirus pandemic in New York is still two to three weeks away.

“Why all of this? Because it’s 1 percent or 2 percent of the population. It’s lives, it’s grandmothers and grandfathers and sisters and brothers,” Cuomo said Tuesday, defending the lockdown. “And you start to see the cases on TV. It’s a 40-year-old woman who recovered from breast cancer but had a compromised immune system and four children at home. That’s what this is about. It’s about a vulnerable population.”

And he’s said that any restart would be conditioned upon the FDA approving tests that would allow doctors to determine if patients have immunity to the deadly disease.

“Younger people can go back to work. People who have resolved can go back to work,” Cuomo again said Wednesday. “People who — once we get this antibody test — show that they had the virus and they resolved can go back to work.

“That’s how I think you do it. … It’s not [that] we’re going to either do public health or we’re going to do economic development and restarting. We have to do both.”

 

 

If the orange man truly has the capacity to think things through in this breadth and depth, and to express thoughts as clearly as Gov Cuomo did here, I guess I just haven't seen it yet. 

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Doing safe drive up testing requires adequate PPE, which comprises nitrile gloves, 3/4 tyvek sleeves, a tyvek tie smock, safety glasses, and an optional face shield for every single person doing initial testing at a drive up tent.

Every nurse/tech should change gloves and disinfect their hands after every test swab, and wipe their face shield down every half hour.

Those medical professionals caring for patients who are hospitalized with Covid grow even more burdensome, more resource intense, while also staffed at skeletal levels. This is the reason why close to 10% of people with positive tests in Italy are medical professionals. 
 

If and when we get adequate levels of PPE, a critical and statistically significant amount of testing accomplished, and we have developed proper evidence based models for both transmission of, and care for the disease, (and hopefully a vaccine), we can start bumping things up again.

To do such without any thought or Care is foolish.

As far as Cuomo rueing his shutdown of New York, there weren’t too many options. The most popular option of past generations was to flee the city for the Adirondacks or the summer homes throughout the region. There are far more people now than in the late 1800s through the 1950s.

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33 minutes ago, Spoon-Balls said:

If the orange man truly has the capacity to think things through in this breadth and depth, and to express thoughts as clearly as Gov Cuomo did here, I guess I just haven't seen it yet. 

You do realize that Governor Cuomo validated Trump’s position? 

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Cuomo does not "rue" the shutdown. Just today he extended school closings and shut down additional construction activity. All he said in that NYpost piece is that he thinks there may have been more effective ways of shutting down.

134 people died in New York yesterday. Nurses have died. My girlfriend has a significant fever but was told not to get tested so as to not overwhelm the system. Lots of people have left New York to go back to their original home, and the virus is spreading that way as well. I can't speak for other cities, but New York City is nowhere close to returning to normal or being able to open back up bars/restaurants.  

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