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3 minutes ago, SLU_Nick said:

This is a good take.  I think the reason why people aren't taking it seriously is that it has never occurred before and the trust of the media/big govt/the president, take your pick is at an all time low.  I'd also venture to say that society at large has systematically taken the empathy out of a lot of people...especially the young that are somewhat disenfranchised paying minimum payments on student loans that don't really see a path to upward mobility.  i.e. why am I supposed to stay indoors and not live to keep the 60+ year olds sitting with $5M net worths comfortable.  It is a dark thought that I am seeing in Twitter mentions.  Might be all russian bots but I dont think so.  It is a scary thought.  I just hope we find a vaccine/cure soon so we can get out of this spiral we are in.

I also think that the "situation" in Italy has not really had that shock factor to the casual observer that would drive a change in behavior for the under 30 healthy person.  If this thing had ebola or SARS-like symptoms it might be a different story.   It is too easy for a young person to say, when I get it, I will get a cough, recover at home for 2 weeks and be fine.  

Just speaking from my own observations and conversations with friends and family, I seem to be in the wheelhouse of people taking it most seriously. I'm 36, have 2 young kids (3.5 and 7 months), and am married. Seems like college kids/20-somethings don't seem too alarmed by it and my parents and aunts/uncles and friends' parents and their generation - Baby Boomers - don't seem to be taking it as seriously, either. I don't have an explanation for that or your theory. I do know that it would have a much lower impact on their day-to-day lives than mine; I'm jealous of people without young kids to take care of during something like this. If this were any point in my life before late June 2016, it'd be many times easier to deal with. It would also be easier if my kids were a little older.

It might have to get to the point where certain people hear about someone they know getting it before they take it seriously. That might be the empathy gap you speak of. I don't know.

If young people are taking the approach of "I'll be fine" they're ignoring the fact they can still carry it and pass it to more vulnerable people. That's a dangerous attitude. The primary symptoms are fever, cough, and shortness of breath. It could be a few days or even a couple weeks before these show up after getting it. There are plenty of reports about young people being knocked out pretty hard by this thing or even hospitalized. Even if the death rate is lower the younger you go, it's not worth messing around with.

I have a friend who is a resident at a hospital in the Bronx. It's a tough scene there and he thinks it's about to get way worse.

If you want a summary of what's going on in Italy, yesterday's episode of the NY Times Daily podcast will be eye opening.

We're a little over a year out, at best, from a vaccine. I saw a few minutes ago that some Chinese doctors are saying they're having some success in treating the virus with a flu drug from Japan but the reliability of the report and testing is uncertain for now.

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2 minutes ago, Old guy said:

What British review of our situation are you referring to Cheeseman?, please clarify. I know you have a source, you did before much to my surprise. So, kindly who came up with this estimate?

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Believe that's the one.

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This is a well done article. It is basically a study on the effect of mitigation techniques applied to a nationwide situation. They use A LOT of assumptions in their work, which is entirely OK because the direction of the article is to  show variation in the total mortality when different mitigation methods are used and the timing of their adoption. So, it really does not matter how many deaths actually happen as long as the results of the mitigation techniques can be applied uniformly and the differences resulting from their application calculated. They assume that 85% of the total populations of the US and UK are expected to contract the disease. Assume the incubation period will be 5.1 days, that the infected people will be capable of transmission from 122 hours prior to developing symptoms to 4.6 days after becoming symptomatic. They assume that individuals that are asymptomatic are 50% more infectious than they are after the onset of symptoms. They assume the R0 is 2.4. They assume the infection was seeded in each country early January 2020 and has grown exponentially ever since. They assume 50% of the cases will remain undetected and develop either no symptoms or very mild symptoms. They assume (from Chinese data) that only 4.4%  of the confirmed infections will require hospitalization, and that 1/3 of those hospitalized will  require intensive care. They assume (from Chinese data) that 1/2 of those requiring intensive care will die. They also calculate an IFR (infection fatality ratio) of 0.9. And here comes the cherry on top of the whipped cream. Since the number of deaths after hospitalization and failed ventilatory efforts are not enough to reach the calculated IFR, they add a round up number of additional undocumented deaths, primarily among the very old, to a level sufficient to fit the assumed IFR of 0.9%.

I hope you read all of this because it is all a model based upon assumptions that are required to bring us to the  grand total of over 2 M deaths expected in the US. ALL THE ASSUMPTIONS IN THIS MODEL MUST BE MET TO REACH THE GRAND TOTAL OF 2 MILLION DEATHS IN THE US. This model is OK to study the results of mitigation interventions taken at different times, IT IS NOT OK AS A PREDICTOR OF TOTAL US DEATHS for the reasons described above.

There will be all kinds of articles done in this  manner which will be equally invalid as a predictor for US deaths this year. The assumptions made in this model are almost biblical, and this one begat, these many others, and each of the  others begat even more. The model ends with a fudge factor when the  number of deaths do not fit the assumed IFR.

Death is serious business, this model is not valid mortality prediction tool, it is just a way to compare and quantify the value of mitigation strategies. For this purpose this article has value.

I stick to my prediction of less than 26,000 deaths in the US when all is said and done. Are you aware that China which has 5X our  population and an inadequate health care system for a large portion of their population (traditional Chinese medicine) had reported only 3000 deaths by March 15th? Can the US with a better and more uniform health care system coverage and 20% of the Chinese population be seriously expected to reach 2,000,000 plus deaths? NO WAY.

Happy St. Patrick's, one day late, to everyone.

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1 hour ago, SLU_Lax said:

Are you saying Chinese nationals are more prone to the virus?  I’m not following. 

I’m saying they have a large contingent of Chinese who travel between the two countries. It would do people well to educate theirselves instead of calling people trolls as some of our “esteemed” members are prone to do.They exhibit their intolerance, once again, to anyone with a view different than theirs.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wired.com/story/why-the-coronavirus-hit-italy-so-hard/amp

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2 hours ago, Pistol said:

China is not a great comp for us. They took draconian measures to isolate people. It couldn't and wouldn't happen here the same way at all. We don't have the same centralized authority they do. The response has been left up to state and local governments, which are responding to it in different ways.

We should be looking at Italy, which like the U.S. also did very little in the early days and is now overwhelmed. They passed 2,500 deaths overnight. Daily new cases *might* be leveling off but it's still too soon to say for sure. Even if new cases plateau, the system is so bogged down they can't handle them.

We also have only tested just over 40,000 people. There's no telling how much it has spread here yet or will continue to spread. With our current curve (which is like Italy's but with many fewer tested at this point) and a population of 330MM, I shudder to think how many unidentified cases are out there.

If we want to slow this, we need to make testing free, easy, and widely available like South Korea has. New cases have slowed dramatically there.

We don't know yet if warmer weather stops the spread. We can be hopeful but there's no evidence yet. It would be grossly irresponsible to rely on this unknown.

This sucks for the service industry in particular. But if you think the economic impact is bad while we pause to try to slow this thing down, imagine the impact if we allowed it to keep spreading with no measures put in place. We need to help those temporarily out of work in the meantime.

I'm very fortunate to have a great job and I'm still stuck at home trying to both get work done and watch my kids. It's impossible. This is the first break I've taken today. My wife and I have had to work late nights after they're asleep. Again - I'm in one of the better situations and it's still horrible.

I still don't understand why so many people aren't taking this seriously. The whole point of taking extreme measures is so we don't end up like Italy.

Pete assumes anyone who doesn’t agree exactly with him doesn’t care...that’s a large reason there is such divisiveness in our country. Absolutely 0 tolerance for other’s views..

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13 minutes ago, BIG BILL FAN said:

I’m saying they have a large contingent of Chinese who travel between the two countries. It would do people well to educate theirselves instead of calling people trolls as some of our “esteemed” members are prone to do.They exhibit their intolerance, once again, to anyone with a view different than theirs.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wired.com/story/why-the-coronavirus-hit-italy-so-hard/amp

As you've done, clearly.

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3 hours ago, Pistol said:

 

This sucks for the service industry in particular. But if you think the economic impact is bad while we pause to try to slow this thing down, imagine the impact if we allowed it to keep spreading with no measures put in place. We need to help those temporarily out of work in the meantime.

 

This is my sentiment as well.  The impact of this thing is going to be huge regardless, but doing little would be catastrophic.  Taking immediate action and providing as much immediate relief as possible is still the best course of action.  

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9 minutes ago, BIG BILL FAN said:

Pete assumes anyone who doesn’t agree exactly with him doesn’t care...that’s a large reason there is such divisiveness in our country. Absolutely 0 tolerance for other’s views..

Looks like a snowflake got triggered and needs a safe space! (Am I speaking your language now?)

It's okay, this isn't for you. Adults are talking.

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Missouri just announced the first death in Boone County.  
 

Really bad news is that a medical professional at BJC has it, which basically means we are having community transmission because he kept working after getting sick.

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1 hour ago, Pistol said:

As you've done, clearly.

You made a claim that we should compare ourselves to Italy... I actually PROVIDED EVIDENCE, unlike you to refute your claims and verify mine. It’s telling that you wanted no part of a factual discussion... so in the meantime, you act like a child and call people a troll. I disagree vehemently with you,  that people who are concerned about an economic collapse and its consequences, don’t care about this pandemic. There are multiple factors that need and should be considered... anyone who thinks they have all the answers is fooling theirselves..

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59 minutes ago, brianstl said:

Missouri just announced the first death in Boone County.  
 

Really bad news is that a medical professional at BJC has it, which basically means we are having community transmission because he kept working after getting sick.

Now they are saying two Wash U doctors have it

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3 hours ago, rgbilliken said:

If anyone wants a picture of how hospital resources are now being rationed, I’m currently in the hospital with a gallstone lodged in my bile duct. Usually they would 100% remove the stone by endoscope and probably take my gallbladder out too. Now they have me sitting here waiting while they decide whether they can spare the resources and if this is enough of an emergency.  I’m not allowed any visitors, including my 3 month old daughter, whom I’m still breastfeeding, and my husband. No one is allowed visitors unless they’re dying or giving birth–then they’re allowed one (1). They have canceled all non-emergency surgeries in order to conserve resources. The problem is no one seems able to decide what constitutes an emergency. If this gets worse than it already is, the situation at hospitals will be really scary. 

Really sorry to hear about your situation, pretty bad no matter which way you cut it.

That being said, you bought to reach out to the post dispatch and tell them about your situation, this is really helpful for people not understanding the gravity of the situation and how it affects all potential inpatients (not just the coronavirus cases) 

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2 hours ago, SLU_Nick said:

This is a good take.  I think the reason why people aren't taking it seriously is that it has never occurred before and the trust of the media/big govt/the president, take your pick is at an all time low.  I'd also venture to say that society at large has systematically taken the empathy out of a lot of people...especially the young that are somewhat disenfranchised paying minimum payments on student loans that don't really see a path to upward mobility.  i.e. why am I supposed to stay indoors and not live to keep the 60+ year olds sitting with $5M net worths comfortable.  It is a dark thought that I am seeing in Twitter mentions.  Might be all russian bots but I dont think so.  It is a scary thought.  I just hope we find a vaccine/cure soon so we can get out of this spiral we are in.

I also think that the "situation" in Italy has not really had that shock factor to the casual observer that would drive a change in behavior for the under 30 healthy person.  If this thing had ebola or SARS-like symptoms it might be a different story.   It is too easy for a young person to say, when I get it, I will get a cough, recover at home for 2 weeks and be fine.  

I know two people who have been infected: 1 is a baby (in intensive care) and another is a 50 year old (also in intensive care). They are in two different states. This thing is horrendous and should be treated as such. 

I have doctor friends all over the political spectrum and each and every one of them is sh!tting their pants about how bad this is. So anyone who thinks this is all due to "politicization" or "polarization' can kindly  *** off. 

@SLU_NickI quoted the wrong person -sorry. 

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3 hours ago, rgbilliken said:

If anyone wants a picture of how hospital resources are now being rationed, I’m currently in the hospital with a gallstone lodged in my bile duct. Usually they would 100% remove the stone by endoscope and probably take my gallbladder out too. Now they have me sitting here waiting while they decide whether they can spare the resources and if this is enough of an emergency.  I’m not allowed any visitors, including my 3 month old daughter, whom I’m still breastfeeding, and my husband. No one is allowed visitors unless they’re dying or giving birth–then they’re allowed one (1). They have canceled all non-emergency surgeries in order to conserve resources. The problem is no one seems able to decide what constitutes an emergency. If this gets worse than it already is, the situation at hospitals will be really scary. 

That is awful.  I hope you get the surgery quickly.

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8 minutes ago, RiseAndGrind said:

I know two people who have been infected: 1 is a baby (in intensive care) and another is a 50 year old (also in intensive care). They are in two different states. This thing is horrendous and should be treated as such. 

I have doctor friends all over the political spectrum and each and every one of them is sh!tting their pants about how bad this is. So anyone who thinks this is all due to "politicization" or "polarization' can kindly  *** off. 

@SLU_NickI quoted the wrong person -sorry. 

No one is saying the virus is a hoax.  No one is saying it isn't serious.  That being said, it has been highly politicized.  To deny that is to be blind to the facts.  Here is another sick example.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democratic-groups-to-spend-millions-hitting-trump-over-coronavirus-response/2020/03/17/5f9fadba-686c-11ea-9923-57073adce27c_story.html

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OK people, I want to share something with you. The following is an email that I sent yesterday to my daughter in Cleveland, she is also a physician working at the Cleveland Clinic. We have been in contact back and forth exchanging information and data about the current pandemic. I think those of you that are truly and really concerned about millions of deaths in the US should check this out. It is not written in very technical terms, but the concept of mortality curve slopes is absolutely correct as a way to follow epidemics. This is what I sent her yesterday:

"Hello ____,

 

Pandemics are a subject that I spent a LOT of time dealing with professionally, ending with the influenza pandemic mortality model adopted by ____, which is proprietary. So this is the background I am coming from regarding the current iteration of pandemics due to other infectious pathogens.

 

The graphic below is from Financial Times, adapted from data obtained from Johns Hopkins. It is a mortality graph that is regularly updated. See below and check the slopes of the death curves. It clearly show that the mortality curve in S. Korea, the US, and Japan have a flatter slope than those of Iran, Italy, Spain, UK, and (at least initially) China.

 

It is the same pathogen that is involved, so the differences can be due to a whole range of other factors like population age, nutritional status, health care system differences, frailty, crowding of the population, and finally control measures and disease incidence. From my experience, the effect of the control measures is manifested by the change in the slope of the mortality curve. This is evident in China’s case

 

image.png.e26d086b2476d05322d24469213a3c98.png

In China, and S. Korea, the mortality curve slope has flattened, to a lesser degree in S. Korea, and the total amount of time to bring the epidemic under control has been relatively small. Italy and Spain are still maintaining the same mortality curve slope indicating a longer course for the epidemic and more total deaths. I would not be surprised if the mortality in these countries is ultimately higher than in China.

 

US and Japanese mortality curves started with a shallower slope which is a good sign, but these curves have not clearly started to flatten yet. We may have a significant number of deaths, depending on the time it takes for the curve slope to flatten, perhaps over a longer period of time.

 

Most importantly, please realize that every country and even region has intrinsic mortality curve slopes that are determined by their unique characteristics in terms of population, susceptibility to the infection, availability of health care, etc. The conditions in Spain, the UK, and Italy are clearly different than those in the US, Japan, and S. Korea, as is indicated by the initial mortality curve slopes. We do not have the same basic propensity as other countries do for the rapid increase of Covid-19 mortality, and this is what will basically determine the ultimate mortality that will be experienced. Please note that this has nothing to do with the actual number of cases experienced, only with the resulting mortality.

 

Likewise, this has a lot to do with the effectiveness of control measures, which are indicated by the flattening of the mortality curve’s slope.

 

This chart, in my opinion, provides a valid indication that the intrinsic death rate (deaths/cases) of a specific disease may vary quite a lot between different countries, and even regions.

 

Love

Papa"

My daughter has more board certifications than I do, but I know a lot more about epidemiology, statistics and mortality than she does. We are both having our own version of an intimate father/daughter long distance relationship at this time based on Covid-19.

Have fun, the world is not coming to an end and you do not need more toilet paper, although beefing up your alcohol reserves may be a good idea.

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20 minutes ago, HenryB said:

No one is saying the virus is a hoax.  No one is saying it isn't serious.  That being said, it has been highly politicized.  To deny that is to be blind to the facts.  Here is another sick example.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democratic-groups-to-spend-millions-hitting-trump-over-coronavirus-response/2020/03/17/5f9fadba-686c-11ea-9923-57073adce27c_story.html

He gave himself a 10/10 on his response so luckily these ads won’t hurt him 

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22 minutes ago, HenryB said:

No one is saying the virus is a hoax.  No one is saying it isn't serious.  That being said, it has been highly politicized.  To deny that is to be blind to the facts.  Here is another sick example.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democratic-groups-to-spend-millions-hitting-trump-over-coronavirus-response/2020/03/17/5f9fadba-686c-11ea-9923-57073adce27c_story.html

Literally an entire news network said it wasn’t a big deal 

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18 minutes ago, RiseAndGrind said:

Literally an entire news network said it wasn’t a big deal 

I don't believe that is accurate...please provide the evidence. Couldn't help but notice you failed to respond to my point about politicization...are you refuting that that article was a prime example of politicization?

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2 hours ago, Pistol said:

Looks like a snowflake got triggered and needs a safe space! (Am I speaking your language now?)

It's okay, this isn't for you. Adults are talking.

You would make a great dodge ball player Pete. Keep on attacking the messenger and ignore the message. I gave concrete facts to dispute your claims, and you had no answer but to name call..

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18 minutes ago, HenryB said:

I don't believe that is accurate...please provide the evidence. Couldn't help but notice you failed to respond to my point about politicization...are you refuting that that article was a prime example of politicization?

So anyone who thinks this is all due to "politicization" or "polarization' can kindly  *** off.   is what I said. I don't think I said it wasn't being politicized. 

 

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18 minutes ago, HenryB said:

I don't believe that is accurate...please provide the evidence. Couldn't help but notice you failed to respond to my point about politicization...are you refuting that that article was a prime example of politicization?

All you had to do was turn of Fox News any evening. With the exception of Carlson they all dismissed it. 

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1 minute ago, RiseAndGrind said:

So anyone who thinks this is all due to "politicization" or "polarization' can kindly  *** off.   is what I said. I don't think I said it wasn't being politicized. 

 

Several flaws in your reply.  Stop putting words in people's mouth. You continue to pedal the false narrative that people say it is all due to politicization. Listen careful...NO ONE IS SAYING THAT.  The point which you continue to ignore is that many on the left continue to politicize this issue...the evidence is overwhelming. Secondly, you said an ENTIRE NETWORK said it is no big deal.  That is patently false. You must not watch much FoxNews. Ever hear of Chris Wallace and Neil Cavuto? They are routinely critical of the President as are many others on the network. Show me the quote that says "no big deal" is the entire network's position.  There are many in the media who have gotten giddy over the collapse of the stock market and expressed hope that this event could be used to get rid of Trump.  Not only is that unpatriotic...it reveals a complete lack of common decency. Speaking of decency...did you notice I responded to you without the use of profane, personal insults.  Think you can do the same next time?

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