Jump to content

SLU & NCAA Corona Virus Discussion


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

2 hours ago, kshoe said:

They'll make the necessary waivers for that. Assuming the high schools all graduate their senior classes, can you imagine the backlash the NCAA would get if it says all these graduates can't play college basketball because standardized testing wasn't available.

Heck, this might be the time to take a chance on a kid that otherwise wouldn't have qualified because he'll probably get a  dispensation just like all the others.

I think that night be assuming too much at this point.  Many states are going to have to change laws on how many days school must be in session and what constitutes a day in session.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, brianstl said:

I think that night be assuming too much at this point.  Many states are going to have to change laws on how many days school must be in session and what constitutes a day in session.  

Again, that will get done. There is no way 18 year olds that are 2 months from graduating are going to be told they need to do another year of highschool. They'll get pushed up and out. If nothing else, schools aren't physically capable of handling classes that are 25% bigger for another year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, brianstl said:

Must have missed all the schools shutting down and college board testing being suspended.  Depending on how long this all goes on, many incoming recruits could have major eligibility issues.

Ahh, I get it.  But we teachers/ profs are all busy making sure to finish what we started.  I am assuming this will be dealt with OK. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, brianstl said:

Must have missed all the schools shutting down and college board testing being suspended.  Depending on how long this all goes on, many incoming recruits could have major eligibility issues.

Many high school juniors take their initial ACT test during their second semester.  They get a base score and then retake it as needed.  Sure, some seniors may not yet have a qualifying score, but my guess is that the majority have.  If a senior has not yet qualified, yes he may be at risk.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, brianstl said:

Must have missed all the schools shutting down and college board testing being suspended.  Depending on how long this all goes on, many incoming recruits could have major eligibility issues.

The good news for us is that this shouldn't be a problem for either of our commitments. Strickland is already eligible. Lorentsson will have the typical international student clearance and should be on campus in early August (similar to Ingvi last year) but aside from the NCAA pushing back the LOI date, he's coming from one of the best school systems in the world and they're still holding classes for now and putting measures in place to go online if necessary.

Recruiting is going to be a mess this spring in general, though.

brianstl likes this
Link to comment
Share on other sites

At what point does just halting the economy, people's paychecks, etc outweigh the cost of all these drastic measures to contain a virus.  Basically all of Las Vegas was just laid off, restaurants basically the same.  This is not sustainable for multiple weeks in my opinion.  At some point we have to open up the economy to at least let the non-vulnerable demographics return to normal.  right? 

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, SLU_Nick said:

At what point does just halting the economy, people's paychecks, etc outweigh the cost of all these drastic measures to contain a virus.  Basically all of Las Vegas was just laid off, restaurants basically the same.  This is not sustainable for multiple weeks in my opinion.  At some point we have to open up the economy to at least let the non-vulnerable demographics return to normal.  right? 

 

 

 

 

No.  If the British review of our situation turns out true then we could have 2 million die from this virus.  If this is what is happening then these places will still be closed.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, SLU_Nick said:

At what point does just halting the economy, people's paychecks, etc outweigh the cost of all these drastic measures to contain a virus.  Basically all of Las Vegas was just laid off, restaurants basically the same.  This is not sustainable for multiple weeks in my opinion.  At some point we have to open up the economy to at least let the non-vulnerable demographics return to normal.  right? 

 

 

 

 

If losing potentially over a million lives is something everyone is okay with, then yes, re-open everything. (Note: that large mortality number is not limited to coronavirus deaths in this scenario, but rather, includes all of the other people who would die from MI's, strokes, acute abdominal complications, etc. because the hospitals exceeded their capacities and ICU beds.)

The cost would be too great IMO, despite these massive economic losses. We have to "flatten the curve" and slow down the virus. It will take months. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, cheeseman said:

No.  If the British review of our situation turns out true then we could have 2 million die from this virus.  If this is what is happening then these places will still be closed.  

over what time frame is this supposed to happen?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

over what time frame is this supposed to happen?

Many experts are now saying this will run through the summer and then come back full bore again in the fall.  The problem is every day it changes.  The Chinese are just now starting to send workers back and we will see what happens there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Spoon-Balls said:

If losing potentially over a million lives is something everyone is okay with, then yes, re-open everything. 

Th cost would be too great IMO, despite these massive economic losses. 

I feel like billikens.com weekday posters skew somewhat affluent so this is the accepted viewpoint on this board.  I'd be surprised if there was a laid off service worker who held this viewpoint.  My uncle and cousin work in the service industry in Las Vegas and make a normal living financially providing for their families.  Now their paycheck is stopped.  If I was in their position, I legitimately would not know what to do.  The vast majority of people in this country cannot afford to skip 2 paychecks.  Are the government checks just going to be continually sent in the mail...indefinitely?

I just wish there was some semblance of timeframe here.  If the virus dies when the temperature warms up, that would be good information to have because then there is a light at the end of this tunnel.  I've heard people speculate this but do not believe this fact is confirmed.  

The 1-2 million person figure is an estimate, based off a model, based off of inputted assumptions.  

Good point above @cheeseman that maybe the Chinese being 6 weeks ahead of us may shine some light on expected outcomes for the USA.  

 

Billiken Rich likes this
Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, cheeseman said:

No.  If the British review of our situation turns out true then we could have 2 million die from this virus.  If this is what is happening then these places will still be closed.  

That projection was if we didn't put in the measures that have been put in place since the government receive that report.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

China is not a great comp for us. They took draconian measures to isolate people. It couldn't and wouldn't happen here the same way at all. We don't have the same centralized authority they do. The response has been left up to state and local governments, which are responding to it in different ways.

We should be looking at Italy, which like the U.S. also did very little in the early days and is now overwhelmed. They passed 2,500 deaths overnight. Daily new cases *might* be leveling off but it's still too soon to say for sure. Even if new cases plateau, the system is so bogged down they can't handle them.

We also have only tested just over 40,000 people. There's no telling how much it has spread here yet or will continue to spread. With our current curve (which is like Italy's but with many fewer tested at this point) and a population of 330MM, I shudder to think how many unidentified cases are out there.

If we want to slow this, we need to make testing free, easy, and widely available like South Korea has. New cases have slowed dramatically there.

We don't know yet if warmer weather stops the spread. We can be hopeful but there's no evidence yet. It would be grossly irresponsible to rely on this unknown.

This sucks for the service industry in particular. But if you think the economic impact is bad while we pause to try to slow this thing down, imagine the impact if we allowed it to keep spreading with no measures put in place. We need to help those temporarily out of work in the meantime.

I'm very fortunate to have a great job and I'm still stuck at home trying to both get work done and watch my kids. It's impossible. This is the first break I've taken today. My wife and I have had to work late nights after they're asleep. Again - I'm in one of the better situations and it's still horrible.

I still don't understand why so many people aren't taking this seriously. The whole point of taking extreme measures is so we don't end up like Italy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 1918 Spanish Flu distancing period was four months. In the last month, when distancing started to get lifted, the mortality rate in St. Louis doubled to 50 deaths/100,000 people, the highest level here.

in Philadelphia, with no distancing, the mortality rate peaked at 1000 deaths/100,000 people, but wrapped up a month earlier than St. Louis, but with a massive cost.

rgbilliken likes this
Link to comment
Share on other sites

If anyone wants a picture of how hospital resources are now being rationed, I’m currently in the hospital with a gallstone lodged in my bile duct. Usually they would 100% remove the stone by endoscope and probably take my gallbladder out too. Now they have me sitting here waiting while they decide whether they can spare the resources and if this is enough of an emergency.  I’m not allowed any visitors, including my 3 month old daughter, whom I’m still breastfeeding, and my husband. No one is allowed visitors unless they’re dying or giving birth–then they’re allowed one (1). They have canceled all non-emergency surgeries in order to conserve resources. The problem is no one seems able to decide what constitutes an emergency. If this gets worse than it already is, the situation at hospitals will be really scary. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, rgbilliken said:

If anyone wants a picture of how hospital resources are now being rationed, I’m currently in the hospital with a gallstone lodged in my bile duct. Usually they would 100% remove the stone by endoscope and probably take my gallbladder out too. Now they have me sitting here waiting while they decide whether they can spare the resources and if this is enough of an emergency.  I’m not allowed any visitors, including my 3 month old daughter, whom I’m still breastfeeding, and my husband. No one is allowed visitors unless they’re dying or giving birth–then they’re allowed one (1). They have canceled all non-emergency surgeries in order to conserve resources. The problem is no one seems able to decide what constitutes an emergency. If this gets worse than it already is, the situation at hospitals will be really scary. 

Good Lord.  

 

Good Luck and get the F out of there as soon as you can!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, rgbilliken said:

If anyone wants a picture of how hospital resources are now being rationed, I’m currently in the hospital with a gallstone lodged in my bile duct. Usually they would 100% remove the stone by endoscope and probably take my gallbladder out too. Now they have me sitting here waiting while they decide whether they can spare the resources and if this is enough of an emergency.  I’m not allowed any visitors, including my 3 month old daughter, whom I’m still breastfeeding, and my husband. No one is allowed visitors unless they’re dying or giving birth–then they’re allowed one (1). They have canceled all non-emergency surgeries in order to conserve resources. The problem is no one seems able to decide what constitutes an emergency. If this gets worse than it already is, the situation at hospitals will be really scary. 

Good luck - things are starting to get dicey.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Pistol said:

China is not a great comp for us. They took draconian measures to isolate people. It couldn't and wouldn't happen here the same way at all. We don't have the same centralized authority they do. The response has been left up to state and local governments, which are responding to it in different ways.

We should be looking at Italy, which like the U.S. also did very little in the early days and is now overwhelmed. They passed 2,500 deaths overnight. Daily new cases *might* be leveling off but it's still too soon to say for sure. Even if new cases plateau, the system is so bogged down they can't handle them.

We also have only tested just over 40,000 people. There's no telling how much it has spread here yet or will continue to spread. With our current curve (which is like Italy's but with many fewer tested at this point) and a population of 330MM, I shudder to think how many unidentified cases are out there.

If we want to slow this, we need to make testing free, easy, and widely available like South Korea has. New cases have slowed dramatically there.

We don't know yet if warmer weather stops the spread. We can be hopeful but there's no evidence yet. It would be grossly irresponsible to rely on this unknown.

This sucks for the service industry in particular. But if you think the economic impact is bad while we pause to try to slow this thing down, imagine the impact if we allowed it to keep spreading with no measures put in place. We need to help those temporarily out of work in the meantime.

I'm very fortunate to have a great job and I'm still stuck at home trying to both get work done and watch my kids. It's impossible. This is the first break I've taken today. My wife and I have had to work late nights after they're asleep. Again - I'm in one of the better situations and it's still horrible.

I still don't understand why so many people aren't taking this seriously. The whole point of taking extreme measures is so we don't end up like Italy.

Not true at all, we shut down travel to China in the first 10 days to the ridicule of the democrats in our country. Italy is a poor comparison. They have a significantly older population, a large population of Chinese, and social customs that are conducive to spreading the virus.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, BIG BILL FAN said:

Not true at all, we shut down travel to China in the first 10 days to the ridicule of the democrats in our country. Italy is a poor comparison. They have a significantly older population, a large population of Chinese, and social customs that are conducive to spreading the virus.

Are you saying Chinese nationals are more prone to the virus?  I’m not following. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Pistol said:

China is not a great comp for us. They took draconian measures to isolate people. It couldn't and wouldn't happen here the same way at all. We don't have the same centralized authority they do. The response has been left up to state and local governments, which are responding to it in different ways.

We should be looking at Italy, which like the U.S. also did very little in the early days and is now overwhelmed. They passed 2,500 deaths overnight. Daily new cases *might* be leveling off but it's still too soon to say for sure. Even if new cases plateau, the system is so bogged down they can't handle them.

We also have only tested just over 40,000 people. There's no telling how much it has spread here yet or will continue to spread. With our current curve (which is like Italy's but with many fewer tested at this point) and a population of 330MM, I shudder to think how many unidentified cases are out there.

If we want to slow this, we need to make testing free, easy, and widely available like South Korea has. New cases have slowed dramatically there.

We don't know yet if warmer weather stops the spread. We can be hopeful but there's no evidence yet. It would be grossly irresponsible to rely on this unknown.

This sucks for the service industry in particular. But if you think the economic impact is bad while we pause to try to slow this thing down, imagine the impact if we allowed it to keep spreading with no measures put in place. We need to help those temporarily out of work in the meantime.

I'm very fortunate to have a great job and I'm still stuck at home trying to both get work done and watch my kids. It's impossible. This is the first break I've taken today. My wife and I have had to work late nights after they're asleep. Again - I'm in one of the better situations and it's still horrible.

I still don't understand why so many people aren't taking this seriously. The whole point of taking extreme measures is so we don't end up like Italy.

This is a good take.  I think the reason why people aren't taking it seriously is that it has never occurred before and the trust of the media/big govt/the president, take your pick is at an all time low.  I'd also venture to say that society at large has systematically taken the empathy out of a lot of people...especially the young that are somewhat disenfranchised paying minimum payments on student loans that don't really see a path to upward mobility.  i.e. why am I supposed to stay indoors and not live to keep the 60+ year olds sitting with $5M net worths comfortable.  It is a dark thought that I am seeing in Twitter mentions.  Might be all russian bots but I dont think so.  It is a scary thought.  I just hope we find a vaccine/cure soon so we can get out of this spiral we are in.

I also think that the "situation" in Italy has not really had that shock factor to the casual observer that would drive a change in behavior for the under 30 healthy person.  If this thing had ebola or SARS-like symptoms it might be a different story.   It is too easy for a young person to say, when I get it, I will get a cough, recover at home for 2 weeks and be fine.  

TaLBErt and SLU_Lax like this
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, cheeseman said:

No.  If the British review of our situation turns out true then we could have 2 million die from this virus.  If this is what is happening then these places will still be closed.  

What British review of our situation are you referring to Cheeseman?, please clarify. I know you have a source, you did before much to my surprise. So, kindly who came up with this estimate?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...