A10Ref Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Clock_Tower said: Same way people act in small towns every day with little to do: sex and alcohol Well, the alcohol is stocked... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 1 hour ago, cgeldmacher said: China has 1,386,000,000 people. 81,000 got coronavirus. That is .0009% of their population. 3,169 died. That's .00002286% of their population. The US has 327,000,000 people. If we get the same percentages as China that means that 294,300 will get it and 7,475 will die. For what it's worth, the Chinese Basketball Association is getting ready to start up games again. So, there may be hope for things going back to normal sooner rather than later. Let's hope all the elderly folks we save can pay their rent and buy groceries after their retirement accounts get cut in half. -it is not done yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgeldmacher Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 I know they’re a rival, but this whole thing really, really sucks for Dayton and their fans. Their best team in a long time and now all down the drain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 3 hours ago, Old guy said: I believe you may be about to enter a process or rediscovery. Hiking, bike riding the Katy trail, the wineries, reading something nice. Lots of things to do, but you need to find them first. Never fear, the closure of sports will provide ample time. Standing in line for apples Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 54 minutes ago, 73Billiken said: China has 1,386,000,000 people. 81,000 got coronavirus. That is .0009% of their population. 3,169 died. That's .00002286% of their population. HOWEVER>>> The US has 327,000,000 people. That is 25% of China's population. If we get the same infection & death rate percentages as China that means that 294,300 19,110 will get it and 7,475 748 will die. The United States has roughly 25% of the population of China, so if 81,000 Chinese got the virus and the same % holds, the math does not bring you to 294,300 infected in the US much less approx 7500 deaths. You are getting the gist of the mortality estimation process, 73Billiken, good for you. Now, you need to acomodate for differences between China and the US. Population ages, states of health, and health care system. We are not equal in many of these areas. For example China has a younger population than the US, since ours is older and this thing kills older people preferentially we will have more deaths per infection, simply because a larger number of old folks will get it. Think of something else, the bulk of deaths in the US so far have happened at a single nursing home in Seattle. This indicates that a lot of old debilitated folks living together may experience a lot higher mortality than if they were being taken care by their children. In old times China revered the elder and took care of them, I really do not know how it is done nowadays. Just think about it use your own fudge factors and come with something out of it. I will be very interested to see what you do with these guidelines. You have a good beginning to the process, now you need to refine it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dennis_w Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, Old guy said: You are getting the gist of the mortality estimation process, 73Billiken, good for you. Now, you need to acomodate for differences between China and the US. Population ages, states of health, and health care system. We are not equal in many of these areas. For example China has a younger population than the US, since ours is older and this thing kills older people preferentially we will have more deaths per infection, simply because a larger number of old folks will get it. Think of something else, the bulk of deaths in the US so far have happened at a single nursing home in Seattle. This indicates that a lot of old debilitated folks living together may experience a lot higher mortality than if they were being taken care by their children. In old times China revered the elder and took care of them, I really do not know how it is done nowadays. Just think about it use your own fudge factors and come with something out of it. I will be very interested to see what you do with these guidelines. You have a good beginning to the process, now you need to refine it. I have family in china, they still revere and take care of the elderly. The reports i get from them is that travel was restricted and it seems they are starting to get back to normal. This is anecdotal of course, but encouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsBeliever!!! Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 I hope they release the bracket and NIT bracket joust to see where we were heading into the A10 tourney Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 48 minutes ago, A10Ref said: Well, the alcohol is stocked... Population boom coming soon! Go buy some pamperers and huggies before it is too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 43 minutes ago, Old guy said: You are getting the gist of the mortality estimation process, 73Billiken, good for you. Now, you need to acomodate for differences between China and the US. Population ages, states of health, and health care system. We are not equal in many of these areas. For example China has a younger population than the US, since ours is older and this thing kills older people preferentially we will have more deaths per infection, simply because a larger number of old folks will get it. Think of something else, the bulk of deaths in the US so far have happened at a single nursing home in Seattle. This indicates that a lot of old debilitated folks living together may experience a lot higher mortality than if they were being taken care by their children. In old times China revered the elder and took care of them, I really do not know how it is done nowadays. Just think about it use your own fudge factors and come with something out of it. I will be very interested to see what you do with these guidelines. You have a good beginning to the process, now you need to refine it. The average age in China and US are almost exactly the same. 30 years of the one child policy did a number on their demographics. The big problem is believing any numbers put out by the Chinese government. Italy is the more relevant country to follow right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbofive Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 6 hours ago, Crewsorlose said: I read all 19 pages this afternoon. It's been fascinating to chart the whole thing and see the reactions. Sports is a distraction and refuge for all of us. It sucks to see this dream of season possibly ended. I'm thankful for the people who've provided good information. I hope those who are in power make wise decisions to minimize the impact. As somebody who came to St. Louis largely because of Hurricane Katrina, I can say this: airborne diseases and hurricanes have no political agenda. I can say that the decisions of politicians and of media and its influencers will have a tremendous impact on the level of disruption and death that results. I myself work at SLU and was thinking it would be great to take my kids and my wife to see my mom in the coming weeks.... cheap flights, all that. But just in the process of thinking this through, I realized what a risk I'd be taking. Not to my kids or myself, but to my mom, who's nearing 80 and has had bronchial issues. To go from a plane + rental car directly to her house, or even two days later, runs the risk of exposing somebody to a disease that would have a 10% chance of killing her. Those who compare this to the flu aren't totally off, with the exception of the extreme vulnerability of the elderly to this disease. Stay safe, Billiken nation. OORGP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbofive Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 6 hours ago, moytoy12 said: Normalcy is in quotes because things aren’t actually cool in China but it’s in their interest (and historical behavior) to hide facts to make things look ok. I don’t want the US to do that because a lot of people will die or get really sick. It stinks that you’re ok with such a system. OORGP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyJumpUp Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 5 hours ago, A10Ref said: Well, the alcohol is stocked... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spoon-Balls Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 Just heard that some of the Diamond Princess being quarantined and studied at University of Nebraska Med Center are still testing positive, meaning they've been harboring the virus for nearly 4 weeks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgbilliken Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, Spoon-Balls said: Just heard that some of the Diamond Princess being quarantined and studied at University of Nebraska Med Center are still testing positive, meaning they've been harboring the virus for nearly 4 weeks now. Pun intended?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clock_Tower Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 29 minutes ago, Spoon-Balls said: Just heard that some of the Diamond Princess being quarantined and studied at University of Nebraska Med Center are still testing positive, meaning they've been harboring the virus for nearly 4 weeks now. Not right to keep people on an infected ship. Don’t release to general public and good luck - but keeping on board not right either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BJK Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 I own a catering company. All of our corporate lunch catering this week and next cancelled. None of the large businesses in this town are having meetings... our spring wedding clients are calling to cancel... my business literally depends on feeding large groups of people. If this goes on for more than a month or two I’m sunk. I imagine many other small and medium size businesses will be in the same situation. This has potential to be devastating on many levels. Separately I’m pissed about losing out on the chance to take down Dayton tomorrow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Spoon-Balls said: Just heard that some of the Diamond Princess being quarantined and studied at University of Nebraska Med Center are still testing positive, meaning they've been harboring the virus for nearly 4 weeks now. That may or may not be correct. Many disease test kits detect the presence of an immune reaction to the bug in question. If this is the method used in to check for Covid-19, then the immune reaction may be present long after the bug is eliminated from the person. I do not know what the test kits are designed to detect for this epidemic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BilliesBy40 Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 8 hours ago, BJK said: I own a catering company. All of our corporate lunch catering this week and next cancelled. None of the large businesses in this town are having meetings... our spring wedding clients are calling to cancel... my business literally depends on feeding large groups of people. If this goes on for more than a month or two I’m sunk. I imagine many other small and medium size businesses will be in the same situation. This has potential to be devastating on many levels. Separately I’m pissed about losing out on the chance to take down Dayton tomorrow!! I wondered about weddings. Best of luck to you and your family. Let's hope this passing quickly. BJK and Old guy like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorB Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 9 hours ago, Spoon-Balls said: Just heard that some of the Diamond Princess being quarantined and studied at University of Nebraska Med Center are still testing positive, meaning they've been harboring the virus for nearly 4 weeks now. One expert said last night it can take 24 days or more for an infected person to show symptoms. Quarantining on a cruise shipi salso terrible because it basically insures that everyone will be infected, due to the recirculation of the air. Some other nuggets from last night: study shows that cases and deaths have begun doubling roughly every 4-6 days, so we will not be peaking anytime soon. the other things was about China, which had been on severe lockdown and recently opened up more -- they are now expecting a resurgence. another fun day in Coronaland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 29 minutes ago, DoctorB said: One expert said last night it can take 24 days or more for an infected person to show symptoms. Quarantining on a cruise shipi salso terrible because it basically insures that everyone will be infected, due to the recirculation of the air. Some other nuggets from last night: study shows that cases and deaths have begun doubling roughly every 4-6 days, so we will not be peaking anytime soon. the other things was about China, which had been on severe lockdown and recently opened up more -- they are now expecting a resurgence. another fun day in Coronaland... You got to quarantine them on the ship until you have a facility ready where you can quarantine them on land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorB Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 then of course there's random stuff like this: http://newsparliament.com/2020/03/12/hundreds-of-ravenous-wild-monkeys-terrorise-thai-city-in-search-of-food-after-coronavirus-drives-tourists-away/?fbclid=IwAR0S4dYEzKqZ3_XcFr337TLWfE1XHvybOaGj6HnpZoinspDguZzh6v6anlM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiseAndGrind Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 10 hours ago, BJK said: I own a catering company. All of our corporate lunch catering this week and next cancelled. None of the large businesses in this town are having meetings... our spring wedding clients are calling to cancel... my business literally depends on feeding large groups of people. If this goes on for more than a month or two I’m sunk. I imagine many other small and medium size businesses will be in the same situation. This has potential to be devastating on many levels. Separately I’m pissed about losing out on the chance to take down Dayton tomorrow!! Good luck to you. Let us know if we can help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 10 hours ago, BJK said: I own a catering company. All of our corporate lunch catering this week and next cancelled. None of the large businesses in this town are having meetings... our spring wedding clients are calling to cancel... my business literally depends on feeding large groups of people. If this goes on for more than a month or two I’m sunk. I imagine many other small and medium size businesses will be in the same situation. This has potential to be devastating on many levels. Separately I’m pissed about losing out on the chance to take down Dayton tomorrow!! Man that sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billiken Rich Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 44 minutes ago, brianstl said: Man that sucks. I just hope all this is worth it........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 Rumor is that a few school reps have asked the NCAA to look into allowing seniors to come back for one year whom played on a team who had not lost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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