Jump to content

SLU & NCAA Corona Virus Discussion


Recommended Posts

Not sure I saw this posted here yet, although I'm sure I glossed over it on page 4 or 5:

https://www.stltoday.com/news/archives/st-louisans-died-from-the-spanish-flu-in-the-city/article_aa4b3141-696f-5849-bf37-ad1fcacb7f3f.html#tracking-source=home-trending

St. Louis had the lowest mortality rate among major American cities during the Spanish flu of 1918 because of their preventative measures.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 2.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

2 minutes ago, cgeldmacher said:

There's also strong sentiment that the fatality rate is much lower than 1%.  The reasoning is that many more people have it than have been officially diagnosed with it.  The people with the serious symptoms are the ones who get tested and reported.  The ones with mild symptoms aren't even going to the doctor.

You should read the article

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, cgeldmacher said:

I would also argue that its in the US's interest to do the same.

Normalcy is in quotes because things aren’t actually cool in China but it’s in their interest (and historical behavior) to hide facts to make things look ok. I don’t want the US to do that because a lot of people will die or get really sick. It stinks that you’re ok with such a system. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There are clearly no easy answers to any of this and nobody know how many will die with an without all these measure being taken. But there has to be some thought to whether the economical consequences of all these actions are worth the lives saved. That sounds harsh, but we are likely heading into a recession, possibly worse, based on these activities.

If I told you all these actions were only going to save one life of an 85 year old, I think any reasonable person would say it's not worth it. It's basically what we've done with the flu as we make no real efforts that cause economic harm to protect the tens of thousands that die from it every year. So how many people will this shut down save. Is 1,000 enough? 10,000? 100,000?

How many people will lose their jobs because of this? Become homeless? Become so desperate that they commit a crime. How many of those crimes will lead to violence and even deaths?

My biggest question at this point, is how do things get back to normal? Do we need to see no new cases of corona before we are all allowed out of our houses. That could take far longer than people are projecting. 6 months or longer is my guess. 

slufan13 likes this
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, kshoe said:

There are clearly no easy answers to any of this and nobody know how many will die with an without all these measure being taken. But there has to be some thought to whether the economical consequences of all these actions are worth the lives saved. That sounds harsh, but we are likely heading into a recession, possibly worse, based on these activities.

If I told you all these actions were only going to save one life of an 85 year old, I think any reasonable person would say it's not worth it. It's basically what we've done with the flu as we make no real efforts that cause economic harm to protect the tens of thousands that die from it every year. So how many people will this shut down save. Is 1,000 enough? 10,000? 100,000?

How many people will lose their jobs because of this? Become homeless? Become so desperate that they commit a crime. How many of those crimes will lead to violence and even deaths?

My biggest question at this point, is how do things get back to normal? Do we need to see no new cases of corona before we are all allowed out of our houses. That could take far longer than people are projecting. 6 months or longer is my guess. 

I hear what you’re saying and it really is a difficult balancing act. And how many deaths are worth the suffering of so many (e.g. economically)?  The “woke” part of me (since that’s apparently who I am) says no deaths. The rationale/optimist part of me says “there has to be a happy medium between caution and allowing life to go on.”  I don’t know what that balance is and err on the side of caution.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

If 50 million Americans become infected, 1% means 500,000 dead.

This is a key point, along with the fact that COVID-19 is a novel virus, and it is highly virulent. So we know that unless significant social distancing goes into effect, this thing will spread far faster and far more easily than even the seasonal flu. Not to mention, a significant number of people already get vaccinated for the flu, but we don''t have similar protections at this point with  coronavirus. 

As posters like Deutschkind have already stated, the goal here is the slow down the progression of this thing so that the hospital systems don't collapse. Keep in mind there is going to be plenty of other medical care (e.g. MI's, GI bleeds, sepsis, traumas, surgeries, etc) that could be hindered because of the massive influx in coronavirus cases tasking up ICU beds. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, HenryB said:

For those suggesting the hysteria to Wuhan virus is not political, consider the following. The 2009 Swine flu pandemic (H1N1) infected more than 60 million and resulted in more than 12000 deaths in the U.S. and more than a half million around the world. Yet, we didn't see anything remotely resembling the panic seen today.   Why is the reaction so vastly different today? What is the major difference between 2009 and 2019? Why was the media narrative so different then as opposed to now?  Yeah...we all know.  This is not to suggest that reasonable people cannot disagree about the most prudent way to address the problem. But to assert politics is not a major motivator is very naive.

https://www.verywellhealth.com/what-is-h1n1-swine-flu-770496

If all this is just overblown hysteria, then why is the current president shuttering air travel, allowing congressmen to parade around in full face respirators, and allowing governors to declare states of emergencies.

He should just call it a hoax, declare that the US has vanquished it, and carry on normal activities. Show his resolute nature and make America....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Sheltiedave said:

If all this is just overblown hysteria, then why is the current president shuttering air travel, allowing congressmen to parade around in full face respirators, and allowing governors to declare states of emergencies.

He should just call it a hoax, declare that the US has vanquished it, and carry on normal activities. Show his resolute nature and make America....

He should really be tested too after interacting with a now known infected person.  Mike Pence too. I say that apolitically. I sincerely mean that for their own health and the stability of this country. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, cgeldmacher said:

China has 1,386,000,000 people.  81,000 got coronavirus.  That is .0009% of their population.  3,169 died.  That's .00002286% of their population.

The US has 327,000,000 people.  If we get the same percentages as China that means that 294,300 will get it and 7,475 will die. 

For what it's worth, the Chinese Basketball Association is getting ready to start up games again.  So, there may be hope for things going back to normal sooner rather than later.  Let's hope all the elderly folks we save can pay their rent and buy groceries after their retirement accounts get cut in half.

 

Again, which is why our decision-makers are implementing China-like lockdown measures to limit exposure.  So we don't end up with anything close to the 61 million that were infected with swine flu or the 25-35 million people who get regular flu every year.  To avoid hundreds of thousands of dead bodies that a 1% mortality rate would cause.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, HenryB said:

For those suggesting the hysteria to Wuhan virus is not political, consider the following. The 2009 Swine flu pandemic (H1N1) infected more than 60 million and resulted in more than 12000 deaths in the U.S. and more than a half million around the world. Yet, we didn't see anything remotely resembling the panic seen today.   Why is the reaction so vastly different today? What is the major difference between 2009 and 2019? Why was the media narrative so different then as opposed to now?  Yeah...we all know.  This is not to suggest that reasonable people cannot disagree about the most prudent way to address the problem. But to assert politics is not a major motivator is very naive.

https://www.verywellhealth.com/what-is-h1n1-swine-flu-770496

The biggest difference is the explosion of social media.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Moy,I have heard it takes 5 to 14 days post exposure for the virus to reliably pop on a saliva/nasal swab. 
I read a good statistical analysis that pegged Seattle/Tacoma and King county having a hospital bed capacity of 3200 for Covid patients, if they moved heaven and earth. St. Louis would be in the same range. It doesn’t take long with unfettered infection rates to hit and grossly exceed that ceiling.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, moytoy12 said:

I hear what you’re saying and it really is a difficult balancing act. And how many deaths are worth the suffering of so many (e.g. economically)?  The “woke” part of me (since that’s apparently who I am) says no deaths. The rationale/optimist part of me says “there has to be a happy medium between caution and allowing life to go on.”  I don’t know what that balance is and err on the side of caution.

Not to parse words but when somebody says they don't know the right balancing act but erring on the side of caution, that moves further towards the economic destruction view. Erring on the side of caution could definitely lead to a economic reality similar to what this country faced in the 30s. For all the fear that is going around about number of deaths, most of whom are old people with existing health issues, there needs to be more real fear about whether any of us will have jobs in 6-12 months when we come out of our caves.

I work in finance and I get to many that when the stock market goes down 10% in a given day its just an abstract concept, but to me what the stock market is telling us is that we are in for a real rough stretch here and there's going to be a lot of economic pain felt all across this country.

willie likes this
Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, cgeldmacher said:

China has 1,386,000,000 people.  81,000 got coronavirus.  That is .0009% of their population.  3,169 died.  That's .00002286% of their population.

The US has 327,000,000 people.  If we get the same percentages as China that means that 294,300 will get it and 7,475 will die. 

For what it's worth, the Chinese Basketball Association is getting ready to start up games again.  So, there may be hope for things going back to normal sooner rather than later.  Let's hope all the elderly folks we save can pay their rent and buy groceries after their retirement accounts get cut in half.

 

Good point, I wonder how many lives a destroyed economy will take.....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And losing every hospital in the area would kill just as many people.

Our business/economic pain leaves functional hospitals and medical staffing, while business as usual would result in every hospital closing, and over 50% absenteeism/sick outs for normal businesses.
our sons schools closed for a couple days three years ago when the district realized they were losing too much state money due to absenteeism. Better to extend the year a day, with 95% attendance.

 

pick your poison

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, kshoe said:

Not to parse words but when somebody says they don't know the right balancing act but erring on the side of caution, that moves further towards the economic destruction view. Erring on the side of caution could definitely lead to a economic reality similar to what this country faced in the 30s. For all the fear that is going around about number of deaths, most of whom are old people with existing health issues, there needs to be more real fear about whether any of us will have jobs in 6-12 months when we come out of our caves.

I work in finance and I get to many that when the stock market goes down 10% in a given day its just an abstract concept, but to me what the stock market is telling us is that we are in for a real rough stretch here and there's going to be a lot of economic pain felt all across this country.

The best chance of avoiding a deep recession is by slowing the spread of the virus and avoiding a total breakdown of the healthcare system.  That way we can have a phased return to normalcy instead of being locked away in our caves for 6-12 months.

rgbilliken likes this
Link to comment
Share on other sites

To those comparing the US situation to China's and trying to project their % of population that died onto the US...it's because China took extreme measures to prevent the spread of disease. Read about the containment measures they took for people in Wuhan. China felt it was better to let the economy take the hit short term in order to protect one of its biggest resources...its huge population. They are a totalitarian regime and I am glad the US won't take the same measures China did. But please stop saying that because a small fraction of China's population died, it means the same fraction of the US population will die. We simply aren't taking the same measures, so this is not true.

RiseAndGrind likes this
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, kshoe said:

Not to parse words but when somebody says they don't know the right balancing act but erring on the side of caution, that moves further towards the economic destruction view. Erring on the side of caution could definitely lead to a economic reality similar to what this country faced in the 30s. For all the fear that is going around about number of deaths, most of whom are old people with existing health issues, there needs to be more real fear about whether any of us will have jobs in 6-12 months when we come out of our caves.

I work in finance and I get to many that when the stock market goes down 10% in a given day its just an abstract concept, but to me what the stock market is telling us is that we are in for a real rough stretch here and there's going to be a lot of economic pain felt all across this country.

From a purely economic side, you are correct, it is rough and it is getting a lot rougher. I have no idea where it ends either.

From a political point of view, just imagine it, we can spend the next 20 years pointing the finger at one another, what fun. Lucky enough for me, I may not last 20 more years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, kshoe said:

Not to parse words but when somebody says they don't know the right balancing act but erring on the side of caution, that moves further towards the economic destruction view. Erring on the side of caution could definitely lead to a economic reality similar to what this country faced in the 30s. For all the fear that is going around about number of deaths, most of whom are old people with existing health issues, there needs to be more real fear about whether any of us will have jobs in 6-12 months when we come out of our caves.

I work in finance and I get to many that when the stock market goes down 10% in a given day its just an abstract concept, but to me what the stock market is telling us is that we are in for a real rough stretch here and there's going to be a lot of economic pain felt all across this country.

I don’t discount your experience and expertise. I’m saying if you’re 50/50 on human life v. stock market/economy, I’m erring on the side of human life.  Look, the fed just agreed to pump 1.5 TRILLION, so I’m guessing that we have an easier route to economic stabilization than we do bringing loved ones back from the dead. 

rgbilliken likes this
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, cgeldmacher said:

China has 1,386,000,000 people.  81,000 got coronavirus.  That is .0009% of their population.  3,169 died.  That's .00002286% of their population.

The US has 327,000,000 people.  If we get the same percentages as China that means that 294,300 will get it and 7,475 will die. 

For what it's worth, the Chinese Basketball Association is getting ready to start up games again.  So, there may be hope for things going back to normal sooner rather than later.  Let's hope all the elderly folks we save can pay their rent and buy groceries after their retirement accounts get cut in half.

 

China has 1,386,000,000 people.  81,000 got coronavirus.  That is .0009% of their population.  3,169 died.  That's .00002286% of their population.

 

HOWEVER>>> The US has 327,000,000 people.  That is 25% of China's population.   If we get the same infection & death rate percentages as China that means that 294,300  19,110 will get it and 7,475 748 will die.

 

The United States has roughly 25% of the population of China, so if 81,000 Chinese got the virus and the same % holds, the math does not bring you to 294,300 infected in the US much less approx 7500 deaths.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...