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SLU & NCAA Corona Virus Discussion


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3 minutes ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

Honestly I’m just hoping that next season will be okay at this point... 

Well we’re all fricked if next year is in jeopardy 

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2 hours ago, 3star_recruit said:

I'm sure the decision makers wish they had that luxury.  They're making life and death decisions in real time.  We're engaging in hypotheticals.  We can afford to be wrong.

This type of thing was an important part of my professional career, with a lot riding upon it. This is not a game for me, it is an expert estimate. Would you care to make an non expert hypothetical estimate yourself? The answer is that you plainly cannot because you totally depend upon what is reported by the media and probably do not know what to look for. This is why I posted the Chinese articles here, to give you all something more solid to chew on. Epidemics are an arcane aspect of medicine. Fauci was guessing and he said so, he has no data or insufficient data to call it straight. The press and the media are doing their usual thing.

And by the way, every single epidemic is different even when produced by the same kind of bug. All depends upon the strain of the bug itself (how virulent it is, how fast it spreads), the susceptibility of the population under threat of infection, their nutritional status, age, etc, etc. If you think the yearly flu epidemic is a non issue that just happens to kill a number of people but is nothing to worry about just think again. The 1918 flu epidemic killed more Americans than all the American dead caused by WWI plus WWII added together, millions of dead bodies. It all depends upon the strain of the bug and the state of  the population it affects.

The fact that this specific Covid-19 bug is apparently not even killing a high proportion of infants and the majority of the dead are very old folks, indicates that its mortality is LOW, whatever the press makes you believe.

I stand on my estimate of Covid-19 caused dead bodies by the end of the year. The actual number is likely to be a lot less than you believe it will be. I am not playing games, this is a serious preliminary estimate (middle of the road type) of the total mortality for this episode.There will be other Covid-? epidemics in the future, vaccines will become available. We will learn to live with Covid just like we do with the flu, have no doubt about this.

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3 hours ago, Old guy said:

After this episode is over and we are done with this epidemic, I will guess that the US death toll will be below 26,000. At this point in time it is like guessing the win loss results for the Bills during summer. Feel free to ridicule me if I am wrong when all is said and done.

When I heard Fauci’s guesses this morning I was surprised as they seemed to go well past what a lot of the available information would suggest.  My presumption is that he wanted to paint a worst case scenario to an audience (Congress) that tends to sit on their hands or drag their feet when not faced with real consequences.

But even if the eventual scenario is closer to what you are putting out there, does that change anything in terms of the actions being taken?  Just wondering.

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This is the biggest crazy panic I've ever seen.  2009 swine flu was way worse and no one acted like this.  Young healthy people are fine..its a bad flu..thats it.  This is insane acting like its the end of the world. People get sick every day. Take precautions and live your life.  I cannot believe we are going to lose games over this.

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19 minutes ago, Billiken Rich said:

Never called anyone a snowflake......our overreaction is getting out of hand in my opinion........

It's not an overreaction, this is a big fricking deal no matter which way you cut it. The economic impacts alone will be devastating for millions unless some sort of guaranteed payment program directly to citizens is implemented. 

 

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Just now, Spoon-Balls said:

It's not an overreaction, this is a big fricking deal. 

Based on what?  A death rate of under 5 percent worldwide, that is concentrated with people over 70 who have health issues?  Death rate under 50 is less than .5 percent?  What makes it a big deal?

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3 hours ago, moytoy12 said:
2 hours ago, moytoy12 said:

Using “snowflakes” really strengthens the “argument.”  As for the rest of this post, read the 70 other posts that debunk whatever Fox News crap you’re trying to spread. 
 

Political rules of this Board not apply to you?  Not surprised. Enlightened, woke assholss like you are hypocrites. 

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4 minutes ago, mrjoelabs said:

Based on what?  A death rate of under 5 percent worldwide, that is concentrated with people over 70 who have health issues?  Death rate under 50 is less than .5 percent?  What makes it a big deal?

Hate to break it to you, but a death rate of even 1% is 10x higher than seasonal flu. Death rate 0.5 is still 5x higher than flu. Not to mention, if the hospital systems become over burdened then people with other conditions requiring hospitalization will equally suffer. 

Turn off the Hannity. 

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7 minutes ago, mrjoelabs said:

This is the biggest crazy panic I've ever seen.  2009 swine flu was way worse and no one acted like this.  Young healthy people are fine..its a bad flu..thats it.  This is insane acting like its the end of the world. People get sick every day. Take precautions and live your life.  I cannot believe we are going to lose games over this.

 

Screenshot_20200311-193229_Chrome.jpg

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5 minutes ago, mrjoelabs said:

 I never said it wasn't worse then the Flu, but its not the black plague either....  

No shite Sherlock, no expert in their gotdamn mind would ever make such a ridiculous comparison. But trying to downplay the real potential health and economic consequences is just being at best ignorant, or at worst malfeasant. 

It's not about "fear mongering," it's about laying out the cold hard facts. 

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13 minutes ago, mrjoelabs said:

Based on what?  A death rate of under 5 percent worldwide, that is concentrated with people over 70 who have health issues?  Death rate under 50 is less than .5 percent?  What makes it a big deal?

So it isn't a big deal if 1 in 200 young people die or a significant number of our parents and grandparents die? 

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2 minutes ago, rgbilliken said:

This. I don’t understand why people are acting like it’s fine if older people start dying in large numbers. 

People didn't die in large numbers in China even.  China has under 5000 deaths out of 1 billion plus people, and its slowing down.  I am not saying it isnt bad or we shouldn't be concerned, but its not to the level people are making it. Older people with health issues should for sure stay home and away from planes and sports arenas, but that is just common sense. 

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Just now, mrjoelabs said:

People didn't die in large numbers in China even.  China has under 5000 deaths out of 1 billion plus people, and its slowing down.  I am not saying it isnt bad or we shouldn't be concerned, but its not to the level people are making it. Older people with health issues should for sure stay home and away from planes and sports arenas, but that is just common sense. 

People in Wuhan also didn’t leave their houses for weeks in order to contain the virus

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2 minutes ago, mrjoelabs said:

People didn't die in large numbers in China even.  China has under 5000 deaths out of 1 billion plus people, and its slowing down.  I am not saying it isnt bad or we shouldn't be concerned, but its not to the level people are making it. Older people with health issues should for sure stay home and away from planes and sports arenas, but that is just common sense. 

In China they literally took people out of their homes forcefully or locked them inside. 

The brilliant part about the "Coronavirus Truthers" is that if the preventative measures work as intended there will be a lot of unironic "told you so...nothing even happened" 

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8 minutes ago, rgbilliken said:

This. I don’t understand why people are acting like it’s fine if older people start dying in large numbers. 

I guess it depends upon how old you are, the older you get the more significance you are bound to attach to this finding.

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