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The Bills over GM by 3


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An important win over RI.  We have 1 more key game that is a non Bills contest. That is tomorrow night Duq  at VCU.    A VCU win and the  4th place destiny is in our hands.  I am showing  VCU over Duq by 8.  If you want a more complete A-10 NCAA bid breakdown see the last posts of the RI spread thread.

Now, let's take a look at our next game...As you will see in the report card...we are the far better team offensively ...GM is a bad offensive team...you might just say they are offensive...in a bad way.   They have an ok defense but we are better.   First  time we have had all Bs on defense this year.  And yet the computer says close game....

Let's take a look and see what's happening...

..............................SLU..........................GM............................................................SLU.........................................GM

................................................OFF.....................................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................C+...........................D-..............................................................B........................................C+

FG%.........................B............................D...............................................................B+......................................C-

3Pt%........................C+...........................F+............................................................B-......................................B

FT%.........................F-... WITN...............C-... .......................................................................................................

Reb.........................A..............................B...............................................................B-.....................................B-

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF rebs = opp reb

Change from last game (UP means improvement ...Down means worse).......UP ....FG%.....3P%......3P% Def.....DOWN.....none

Report card note...we continue to scrape the bottom in FT%...we needed 1 more FTM to move ahead of Ark-PB...Can we just shoot 70% this game?

 Bills  Off Reb...A+...12th  ITN.....up

Assts...Y Collins....37th.....up

Rebs...Goodwin...16th....French..21st......down  and up

Off Reb....French ...24th...Goodwin...35th...unchanged & down

Def reb......Goodwin.....31st ....French ...44th.....up  &  up

Stls......Goodwin...32nd ...down

Blks.....French....20th....unchanged

Dbl-Dbl.. Goodwin...16th and French  42nd......up  &  up

Stls ....Greene...62nd

Blks....Wilson....5th 

Injury report

Kier...G...1/15/20...Out indefinitely ...Fractured right foot

Boyd...G...10/3019...OFTS...wrist injury

WWN2D2W...This is the Greene Wilson show...Green leads  in Pts,  Assts and Stls...Wilson leads in Rebs, FG% and Blks....Hold these guys to less than 20 pts combined. Wilson is 5th ITN in blks...no more than 2 blks for him.... GM is a good reb team but we are better plus we are better at protecting the ball...we need to win both Reb and TO battles..  To win the game, we need either to score more than 70 or keep them from scoring 65.  The GM slash needs to look like this....less than 40%/ less than 30%/ we have more FTM.

Bottom line...We are the better team...all the stats point to a double digit win...yet the computer says a close game...Why??  Because we play to the competition....Last game that was a good thing...this one ...not so much...This game will not help our numbers much but a 10 point win would help a little more.  Let's put this one away.

 

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I am totally surprised that you have no answers so far. I have a question for you. Your program is saying that SLU is a lot better than GM but is giving us only a 3 pt advantage because we play at the opponent's level (bad habit). I just want to know if your program is capable of determining the impact a single player can make upon the game in a relatively short term.

Hargrove has gotten it together over the last 3 games, playing over 20 minutes in these games and scoring in the double digits. This is a marked improvement for him both offensively and defensively. Weaver on the other hand has played a lot less minutes over the last 3 games and made a grand total of 2 pts in all 3 of these games. I agree this may be a match up issue, but Hargrove is not only playing longer and scoring more, but his defense is good and he  brings in a lot of energy and cohesion to the team. From my point of view Hargrove can be the ingredient than can help us win the remaining games, both the next two games and the tournament. What are your thoughts about this?

Is your program capable to change its predictions after a 3 game of significant and heavy improvement by Hargrove?

Thanks.

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26 minutes ago, Old guy said:

I am totally surprised that you have no answers so far. I have a question for you. Your program is saying that SLU is a lot better than GM but is giving us only a 3 pt advantage because we play at the opponent's level (bad habit). I just want to know if your program is capable of determining the impact a single player can make upon the game in a relatively short term.

Hargrove has gotten it together over the last 3 games, playing over 20 minutes in these games and scoring in the double digits. This is a marked improvement for him both offensively and defensively. Weaver on the other hand has played a lot less minutes over the last 3 games and made a grand total of 2 pts in all 3 of these games. I agree this may be a match up issue, but Hargrove is not only playing longer and scoring more, but his defense is good and he  brings in a lot of energy and cohesion to the team. From my point of view Hargrove can be the ingredient than can help us win the remaining games, both the next two games and the tournament. What are your thoughts about this?

Is your program capable to change its predictions after a 3 game of significant and heavy improvement by Hargrove?

Thanks.

I would think he is factoring in the road issue - most teams get at least 3 pts for playing at home.

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Well, it's Senior Night at Mason and they have no seniors.  Yay, no emotion.  Both seniors are injured in Ian Boyd and Justin Kier ---- do they ask for redshirt years?  Kier only played nine games this year due to injuries.  Boyd none.

Javon Greene leads them as the Wiz noted but he was suspended for violation of team rules for last game against Duquesne at Duquesne.  Mason still managed to give the Dukes a battle before losing 81 to 78 in a game kept in doubt by Duquense's inability to hit closing free throws.  AJ Wilson is the other leader and he is mentioned for most improved player in the A10 this year. After averaging 3.7 ppg for his first and second years in the program, the junior now scores at a little over 12 ppg.  But like Michael Hughes at Duquesne, he hunts the help defense-shot block and is foul prone. He, Jordan Miller and Gonar Mar all fouled out at Duquesne.  Wilson is a streaky player who feeds on the emotion his shot blocking brings.  

With Greene and Wilson and Miller all starting, that leaves Josh Oduro and either Xavier Johnson or Jamal Hartwell to start.  Johnson and Hartwell likely split the point duties although neither has been stellar this year.  Oduro reminds me of Tre Mitchell size wise but is nowhere close to his fellow freshman in skills.  He and Wilson, combined with Gonar Mar and Greg Calixte, give Mason 20 fouls to Hack-a-Hasahn with.  

To me, the X factor is Miller, a 6'6" small forward who can be a tough matchup if he's on and a deadly combo with Greene.  Miller is averaging 12 ppg and just had 19 at Duquesne.  Skill-wise, I like our folks at every position but the game still must be played.  Mason has lost 8 of their last 10 but one of those wins was on the road at VCU.  Maybe an old Colonial Conference rivalry?  

MUST MUST win.

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2 hours ago, Old guy said:

I am totally surprised that you have no answers so far. I have a question for you. Your program is saying that SLU is a lot better than GM but is giving us only a 3 pt advantage because we play at the opponent's level (bad habit). I just want to know if your program is capable of determining the impact a single player can make upon the game in a relatively short term.

Hargrove has gotten it together over the last 3 games, playing over 20 minutes in these games and scoring in the double digits. This is a marked improvement for him both offensively and defensively. Weaver on the other hand has played a lot less minutes over the last 3 games and made a grand total of 2 pts in all 3 of these games. I agree this may be a match up issue, but Hargrove is not only playing longer and scoring more, but his defense is good and he  brings in a lot of energy and cohesion to the team. From my point of view Hargrove can be the ingredient than can help us win the remaining games, both the next two games and the tournament. What are your thoughts about this?

Is your program capable to change its predictions after a 3 game of significant and heavy improvement by Hargrove?

Thanks.

Can the program can adjust to a single player over a few games?...... The answer is yes, if you look in the right place. That place would be the trending grade. The Bills have been a B team for almost 3 months...very little movement...but the trending grade bounces around...using the last 10 games with the most recent carrying the most weight...as an example, a few games ago our trending grade was C+ ....now it has popped up to B+...During the season we have been as high as A-.   Trending just shows where you are headed...which at this time of the year is important.

As far as plugging in a player and measuring him , it is not quite that simple. If you plug in somebody who start to score 10 pts a game...what are you losing from the player who is missing. As an example...Thatch and Hargrove have similar PPG....4.8 vs 5.3...and min /gm is close too ...16 vs 12...On a plug and play you could argue that Hargrove is worth an extra 1/2 pt.  But how do you measure  the energy boost to the team and the crowd after one of Hargrove's slam dunks. And how do you measure the missing defense from Thatch....or the missing 3s from Jimerson and how many of those 3s were made up by other players. Like a rubic's cube , when you change one variable it changes the entire pattern. 

In the end , the computer  is probably better than most human analysts because it can see all the variables and put them together in a pattern.. Is it perfect?...no....it is still trying to learn the impact of ...JAM TIME.

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3 hours ago, moytoy12 said:

I remember the last midweek road game against a subpar team. Let’s hope history does not repeat itself.

Yes there is the shadow of UMass ...at that time it was The Bills over UMass by 2.   And one of the things that the computer sees  is that UMass and GM are very similar teams...both C team , both trending at C-, both playing at home. But there is 1 difference ...we were a B team  trending  at C+ and now we are a B team trending at B+...so we are playing much better now....The computer says prove it. I say we should be able to exceed the spread....but what do I know ...I am only human.

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3 hours ago, cheeseman said:

I would think he is factoring in the road issue - most teams get at least 3 pts for playing at home.

Obviously , that is part of it... see above for the rest of the numbers.  GM's home court advantage is 3.12 pts...the average home court advantage is 3.42 pts. The Fetz edge is 4.17 pts.

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A good win...Let's see what happened and why...

Bolded phrases are from the original post...

WWN2D2W...

This is the Greene Wilson show...Hold these guys to less than 20 pts combined....We held them to 15 pts ...Excellent.

 Wilson is 5th ITN in blks...no more than 2 blks for him....Held him to zero...HAS showed him how to do it . With his 5 blks, he broke the old single season record set by Willie Reed.

we need to win both Reb and TO battles...We won both these battles...rebs by ...TOs by 2...We had 16 TOs which usually spells loss but fortunately we forced them into 18 TOs which worked out well.  If we are to keep winning we will have to bring down that 16 number.

To win the game, we need either to score more than 70 or keep them from scoring 65...We almost did both...If we use the 65 pts as the fulcrum...GM scored 8 pts pts less than that and The Bills  scored 4 pts more...8 + 4 =12pts...the actual game spread.

The GM slash needs to look like this....less than 40%/ less than 30%/ we have more FTM....This is an unusual stat for me ...I usual list the Bills stat but in this case I knew defense was going to be important...here is the actual...38/ 30/ Bills 12 vs GM 11....I would say this is about as close as you can call it...And this was the game winning stat.

Bottom line...We are the better team...all the stats point to a double digit win...We were and we did...sometimes I can outsmart the computer...after all it is ARTIFICIAL  intelligence ....It can't beat its master ..at least some times

This game will not help our numbers much but a 10 point win would help a little more.  Let's put this one away....We did put this one away...every win helps ...5 more to Dance.

Next up ...Rich over Duq by 1...

 

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, The Wiz said:

To win the game, we need either to score more than 70 or keep them from scoring 65...We almost did both...If we use the 65 pts as the fulcrum...GM scored 8 pts pts less than that and The Bills  scored 4 pts more...8 + 4 =12pts...the actual game spread.

Pick any fulcrum you want: the differences would still equal the actual game spread.  Mason scored 3 points less than 60 and the Bills scored 9 points more than that; 3 + 9 = 12.  Same story if you picked 67: 10 + 2.

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14 minutes ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

Pick any fulcrum you want: the differences would still equal the actual game spread.  Mason scored 3 points less than 60 and the Bills scored 9 points more than that; 3 + 9 = 12.  Same story if you picked 67: 10 + 2.

You 're right ...I should have just left it at my original statement... To win the game, we need either to score more than 70 or keep them from scoring 65.  

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2 hours ago, Billikenbooster said:

So a big W over StB might get us into the 40s?

mhg

I doubt it.  We're playing StB at home and their NET is 116.  It is a game we're expected to win and I'd imagine the Wiz spread will be more than the 3 points he had us beating Mason by.  Need to beat Bona by 10+ and I'd imagine our NET would go up by a marginal amount, but not enough to take us into the 40s.

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9 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said:

I doubt it.  We're playing StB at home and their NET is 116.  It is a game we're expected to win and I'd imagine the Wiz spread will be more than the 3 points he had us beating Mason by.  Need to beat Bona by 10+ and I'd imagine our NET would go up by a marginal amount, but not enough to take us into the 40s.

You are correct...I will be working on the St. B report today but it looks like the spread will be...Bills by 7.....So any "extra juice" we are looking for  would happen with an  8-10 pt win.....anything more is not worth anything.  So yes,  not much upside...but way better than the alternative....a loss.

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17 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said:

I doubt it.  We're playing StB at home and their NET is 116.  It is a game we're expected to win and I'd imagine the Wiz spread will be more than the 3 points he had us beating Mason by.  Need to beat Bona by 10+ and I'd imagine our NET would go up by a marginal amount, but not enough to take us into the 40s.

Our NET will move pending the Richmond - Duquesne game.  Try and figure out how much and in which direction is beyond me.  But if Richmond wins, we should move more upward, as we beat them. 

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35 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said:

I doubt it.  We're playing StB at home and their NET is 116.  It is a game we're expected to win and I'd imagine the Wiz spread will be more than the 3 points he had us beating Mason by.  Need to beat Bona by 10+ and I'd imagine our NET would go up by a marginal amount, but not enough to take us into the 40s.

We can move all that much, but we can get plenty of help from others. 

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19 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

Our NET will move pending the Richmond - Duquesne game.  Try and figure out how much and in which direction is beyond me.  But if Richmond wins, we should move more upward, as we beat them. 

We played Duquesne twice and Richmond only once.  If anything I'd imagine Richmond winning would have a slight overall negative impact.  That being said, we absolutely want Richmond to win.

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3 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said:

We played Duquesne twice and Richmond only once.  If anything I'd imagine Richmond winning would have a slight overall negative impact.  That being said, we absolutely want Richmond to win.

I think Richmond winning helps SLU's overall dance card out more than the Dukes winning.  You want that 16 point road win at Richmond to look as good as possible.  Right now it is the best win we have.

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