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3 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

Anthony Grant has done a better job of coaching his team than Hall of Famers Coach K and Tom Izzo have coaching theirs.  

never saw me bragging about k and izzo

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Here's my hot take, because i love getting into semantics (i think you and i are in agreement): "one bid league" is pretty specific and describes a conference in which the winner of the conference tou

Utah State (Considered last 4in):  21-8 record— 2-4 Q1 , 2-2 Q2 , 7-2 Q3 , 10-0 Q4, SOS: 121 , Away: 4-6 Billikens (Not even considered for bubble): 20-8 record— 2-5 Q1 , 2-1 Q2 , 9-2 Q

I think Dayton is that good, but we match up well against them.  I'll take my chances against them in a third game. I think the only way to make sure we get in the tournament is to beat Dayton.  I don

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41 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

only if you believe dayton is not that good.   i think dayton is a legit national champion contender.   if they had a better floor coach i would make them the favorite.   

I think Dayton is that good, but we match up well against them.  I'll take my chances against them in a third game. I think the only way to make sure we get in the tournament is to beat Dayton.  I don't think anyone else in the conference is capable of beating them.  So we either have to beat them in the conference finals or before that in the tournament.  

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The “bracketolgists” are criminal it could be because I’m biased, but on USA Today’s latest bracketology they have Clemson mentioned, they have a 81 net they have Tulsa mentioned a 75 net they have unc-Greensboro mentioned a 79, but our 53 isn’t even in discussion. 

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25 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

dayton is playing for a #1 seed.   if they lose a game between now and selection sunday, they may fall all the way to a #3 seed (f'ing bias vs mid major conferences) that is huge in the path to the final 4 and the teams they would play to get there.   i dont see dayton letting down. 

 i hope they do play down when they play us in the tourney.   whether it be us or any of the teams fighting for a double bye, beating dayton might put that team in the ncaa tourney.  

I think Dayton is in a similar spot Gonzaga was last season where a loss in the conference tournament is going to cost them one of the number one seeds.  

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3 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

Who do you consider great floor coaches and what were their records this year?

If im allowed to play, Jay Wright and Self

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5 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

Who do you consider great floor coaches and what were their records this year?

Anthony Grant has also been using a lot of cool Xs and Os stuff he presumably picked up while on Billy Donavan’s staff in the NBA. Off the top of my head I can’t think of anyone who would seem to be doing a better job as a “floor coach” this year.

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If things broke where where neither Utah State nor SLU won its conference tournaments, I would think SLU is more likely to be selected.  TV ratings and Power 6 conference is where the selection bias lies.  Power 6 considerations don't apply when considering between ONLY these two teams.  We made the miracle run last year and got to the tournament.  We have Travis Ford as coach (those young Gen-X guys calling games love them some Travis Ford).  And we have two of the most exciting players in the country--our uber-rebounding stud guard, Goodwin, and our defensive rim protector, French.  We have the silky smooth jumper and athleticism of Perkins.  We have the deft passing of true freshman PG, Collins.

We also are the worst FT shooting team in basketball.  It makes things that much more interesting.  Trust me that CBS/AT&T would love to televise us in the tournament.  So much content for those producers to mine.  What would Utah State offer them?

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3 minutes ago, JettFlight5 said:

If the A-10 is a one bid league this year, the leadership needs to shake up the membership. I know it's unfair to some teams, but one 1-bid year destroys a lot of the credibility this league has built. 

I tend to agree, but RI came up short too much in their OOC. Had they beaten either Maryland, Alabama, LSU, Providence or WVU, they would be in.  They like us, are having to rely off of how north texas and western Kentucky do. 

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15 minutes ago, Bills_06 said:

Good tweet by Stu.

 

Stu conveniently forgets about margin and kenpom. All of those tight victories over the Bethune Cookman's hurt SLU in the NET rankings. That's also why we've shot up so much in the past two weeks, when we've won by double digits. Utah St. is 40 in Kenpom, SLU is 71, but SLU's RPI is higher. 

My bigger complaint is Gasaway who does the Bubble Watch. He's just lazy and keeps profiling the same teams. What's Yale's bubble case? They're not getting in if they don't win the Ivy. Their NET is 64, They're 0-2 in Q1, 2-2 in Q-2, 5-2 in Q3, and 13-0 in Q4. No way in hell, despite some computer numbers that looked great in January. Likewise, it took him until yesterday to drop Georgetown from the watch. But he's too lazy to add SLU. 

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9 minutes ago, JettFlight5 said:

If the A-10 is a one bid league this year, the leadership needs to shake up the membership. I know it's unfair to some teams, but one 1-bid year destroys a lot of the credibility this league has built. 

Although it is better if that one bid is a 1 seed and not a 12 

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Just now, Crewsorlose said:

Stu conveniently forgets about margin and kenpom. All of those tight victories over the Bethune Cookman's hurt SLU in the NET rankings. That's also why we've shot up so much in the past two weeks, when we've won by double digits. Utah St. is 40 in Kenpom, SLU is 71, but SLU's RPI is higher. 

My bigger complaint is Gasaway who does the Bubble Watch. He's just lazy and keeps profiling the same teams. What's Yale's bubble case? They're not getting in if they don't win the Ivy. Their NET is 64, They're 0-2 in Q1, 2-2 in Q-2, 5-2 in Q3, and 13-0 in Q4. No way in hell, despite some computer numbers that looked great in January. Likewise, it took him until yesterday to drop Georgetown from the watch. But he's too lazy to add SLU. 

if you cap MOV at 10 like NET does:


Utah St MOV: 8.7

SLU MOV: 8.3

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4 minutes ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

if you cap MOV at 10 like NET does:


Utah St MOV: 8.7

SLU MOV: 8.3

It's kind of a untrue that MOV is capped at 10. For part of the NET analysis it is, but NET also looks at efficiency margin and in that regard, running up the score is very helpful. No way to tell how important winning by more than 10 is, but MOV isn't completely capped at 10. 

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3 minutes ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

Although it is better if that one bid is a 1 seed and not a 12 

Can we as a board start to parse what "one bid league" means? The empirical meaning is a league that gets one bid. That's not the same as some kind of normative meaning, based on the strength of the league, that it deserves a certain # of bids. Clearly it's a 2 or 3 bid league on that basis. But the teams near the top have to win the games. If SLU and URI had beaten Dayton, it would be a 3 or 4 bid league (empirically). That wouldn't say anything more about the quality of the league. But one team beating another in conference doesn't prove the league is stronger or weaker. That case is made in OOC. If the A-10 gets 3 teams in at this point, it will be lucky, if it gets one, unlucky. But neither will happen because the Selection Cmte determines it to be a "one bid" or "three bid" league. 

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13 minutes ago, JettFlight5 said:

If the A-10 is a one bid league this year, the leadership needs to shake up the membership. I know it's unfair to some teams, but one 1-bid year destroys a lot of the credibility this league has built. 

There was a while this season when we looked like a 4- or 5-bid league. Then two things happened:

1. The last week or so of non-conference play was a complete disaster:
-Richmond lost to Radford and Alabama.
-Rhode Island lost to Brown.
-Duquesne lost to UAB and Marshall.
-VCU lost to Wichita State.
-And other teams that had already floundered out of the gate lost, like Davidson and Bonaventure.
-Of the league's contenders, only SLU and Dayton took care of business after mid-December losses to Auburn and Colorado, respectively.

2. Given the way the non-conference season ended, we needed a handful teams to establish themselves as a clear top tier and only take losses to each other: Dayton, VCU, Rhode Island, Richmond, and SLU. Instead, VCU is fighting for .500, SLU took 6 losses, Rhode Island stumbled down the stretch, and Richmond will end up with 1-2 more losses than they could take after getting beaten by double digits twice to end the non-conference slate.

Richmond and Rhode Island are currently sitting in the "First Four Out" tier according ESPN and several other bracket predictions, so they have a shot. If Rhody loses to UMass, it's over for them. Richmond has to beat Duquesne, too. Both also have to make some noise in Brooklyn. SLU has an extremely slim chance but I suppose things could break right for us if we, say, made it to the A10 final after beating Dayton and lost to someone else. It'd be an intriguing profile at that point.

Anyway, I'm not sure what the answer is here except that our league rode a fine line this season between 1 and 5 bids. I'm not sure that requires a membership shake-up.

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The A10 has a lot of parity between 2-6. Not always a bad thing, but in this case it backfired. The A10 simply didn't have a good enough OOC for the top teams. 

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Current Net of 53.  Beat the Bonnies with a decent score and it feels like we could be 50 of even 49 going into Brooklyn. Win 2 games there that mid 40's.  If we lose to UD or Richmond close, it shouldn't shake our NET too much. Should be interesting to see a team with 24 wins and mid 40's NET and the bubble discussion. Just keep winning 

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42 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

Who do you consider great floor coaches and what were their records this year?

ha.   i got myself into it now.  🙂  i think dambrot with duquesne  is a very good floor coach and i like schmidt at st b.  i consider them the two best in the A10.   obviously rickma was a game master might be the best ever.   i love mark few at game time.   i like scott drew.  these are the ones that come to me off the top of my head.  i am not looking up their records because i am lazy. 

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