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Future rosters and recruiting needs


bauman

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Looking at our future potential rosters and trying to combine them with 2020 and 2021 recruiting needs points out how inter-dependent our next two recruiting classes are and how important they are.  If  we are done with next years recruiting Strickland and Lorentsson -MS and AL and everyone else returns, I think we are in good shape for next year without any significant holes in any of the positions:  (Sorry HP and BR but I'm not going to spell out every name on the roster when we ALL know who they are)

5:  JB Jr ; MD;  HF;  KCH

4:  HF;  KCH;  TH Jr;  AL

3:  JP;  FT Jr;  GJ;  TH Jr;  AL;  MS; JG

2:   DJ;  JG;  GJ;  MS

1:   YC;  DJ;  JG

Obviously, a lot depends on any possible losses do to injuries/illness and/or transfers.  For example, if the coaching staff knows of a roster spot opening up and fills it with D Houston, who looks like a 4 (PF) then that will have a major impact on the 2021 recruiting needs.  The next years roster (21-22) is when it gets interesting and will challenge TF and his staff's recruiting abilities.  We will be losing 3 of our most outstanding players (HF, JG, JP) and need to have replacements ready to fill those losses.  Here's where the interaction between the next 2 recruiting classes becomes most apparent.

If another spot opens up for next year and if that is filled by a player like Donte Houston, then maybe that goes a long way to replacing what we lose with HF's departure.  If that is not the case then we need a strong rebounder in the 2021 class to pick up at least some of the rebounding we will lose with HF and JG's departures.  ( A point recently made by H. Pal)  Point Guard is another area of concern and a recruiting challenge.  While DJ has shown that he can fill that role for short periods of time, I really don't think that is his best spot.  Actually, if he could come close to revving up his motor to somewhere at least close to Goodwin's, he could be an ideal replacement for a large # of JG's rebounds.  In any case we are going to need a PG to cover any injuries to Yuri and to ultimately take his spot.  As noted above, this will be a real difficult chore for TF.  With as many minutes as a healthy YC plays, not many high-level high school PGs will want to come here and sit for at least a year.  I guess a possible solution is a combo Guard whose strength is the PG position, but who can give us some minutes at the SG spot.

So what do we need in the 2021 recruiting class?  First I would like to see us re-establish SLU as a desirable destination for top level local recruits.  While there were tough obstacles this year, I think it can be reasonably concluded that we struck out in the STL area.  While we will more often than not fail to get guys who have offers from Duke/UNC/Kentucky, we need to be able to get players who have committed to schools like Creighton/K-St/Georgetown.

Like most Board posters, I look forward to an outstanding year next year, BUT that will be coming after most of the top 2021 recruits have committed, so we will be selling the program based on this years team combined with the known losses of 3 outstanding players.  The problem I see in getting top local recruits in the 2021 class is that, at least two of the best are in that tweener size 6'4" - 6'6"  (Kern and Nesbitt), a size area where we are overloaded.  Will we need a rebounding banger in that class?  Depends on if have have added Houston in the 2020 class and if we didn't and need to fill that role in 2021 are there any locals to do that?  Maybe so with the DeSmet twin towers.  Or maybe we need to go outside the local area to get another HF type. 

Re the PG issue, if we don't solve that problem in either the 2020 or 2021 classes,  maybe the solution is someone we can already see-the Soph PG at CBC.  One thing that YC has changed my mind about is the importance of an outstanding PG who can break a press and distribute the ball. 

I am glad we have Ford and his staff to solve these issues, because it sure doesn't look easy.

 

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One thing that scared me large yesterday was Yuri picking up his second and then third foul in the first half.  We do NOT have another PG currently on the roster and the easy turnovers by Jacobs and Goodwin, while manning the point in Yuri's absence, was telling.  Fatts' eight steals spoke volumes.  

According to Verbal Commits (to be authenticated by Pistol) we have 6 offers out to potential Point Guards for the Class of 2021 --- Brown, Shorter, Penn, Neal, Washington and Diggins.  Brown and Shorter are five- and four-star recruits; I don't really expect to get either.  But someone in that group has to come to us ---- it would be great with Yuri as a junior then.  I am okay with waiting for that group as even though Jacobs and Goodwin aren't it, they are decent enough yesterday notwithstanding.  Brown looks amazing at 6'7" but there are way too many big boys after him. Outside of us and Okie State, Shorter who is 6'5" has all the boys in Florida after him including Florida.  We need another point bad.

I can't see KCH hanging around.  Two years of no playing time, coupled with injuries, coupled with being behind Perks and Hargrove, coupled with incoming recruits Strickland and Lorentsson, just says no way.  Getting Donte Houston Jr. with that slot would be great.  There is no one on the roster between Houston and French for the next three years.  

Finally, there's Fred.  Hope like hell he's recovered but even if he were, he'd bounce down to a sophomore and put an unbalnced six scholarships in that class category.

Next year looks bright but we can get better.

 

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21 hours ago, bauman said:

Looking at our future potential rosters and trying to combine them with 2020 and 2021 recruiting needs points out how inter-dependent our next two recruiting classes are and how important they are.  If  we are done with next years recruiting Strickland and Lorentsson -MS and AL and everyone else returns, I think we are in good shape for next year without any significant holes in any of the positions:  (Sorry HP and BR but I'm not going to spell out every name on the roster when we ALL know who they are)

5:  JB Jr ; MD;  HF;  KCH

4:  HF;  KCH;  TH Jr;  AL

3:  JP;  FT Jr;  GJ;  TH Jr;  AL;  MS; JG

2:   DJ;  JG;  GJ;  MS

1:   YC;  DJ;  JG

Obviously, a lot depends on any possible losses do to injuries/illness and/or transfers.  For example, if the coaching staff knows of a roster spot opening up and fills it with D Houston, who looks like a 4 (PF) then that will have a major impact on the 2021 recruiting needs.  The next years roster (21-22) is when it gets interesting and will challenge TF and his staff's recruiting abilities.  We will be losing 3 of our most outstanding players (HF, JG, JP) and need to have replacements ready to fill those losses.  Here's where the interaction between the next 2 recruiting classes becomes most apparent.

If another spot opens up for next year and if that is filled by a player like Donte Houston, then maybe that goes a long way to replacing what we lose with HF's departure.  If that is not the case then we need a strong rebounder in the 2021 class to pick up at least some of the rebounding we will lose with HF and JG's departures.  ( A point recently made by H. Pal)  Point Guard is another area of concern and a recruiting challenge.  While DJ has shown that he can fill that role for short periods of time, I really don't think that is his best spot.  Actually, if he could come close to revving up his motor to somewhere at least close to Goodwin's, he could be an ideal replacement for a large # of JG's rebounds.  In any case we are going to need a PG to cover any injuries to Yuri and to ultimately take his spot.  As noted above, this will be a real difficult chore for TF.  With as many minutes as a healthy YC plays, not many high-level high school PGs will want to come here and sit for at least a year.  I guess a possible solution is a combo Guard whose strength is the PG position, but who can give us some minutes at the SG spot.

So what do we need in the 2021 recruiting class?  First I would like to see us re-establish SLU as a desirable destination for top level local recruits.  While there were tough obstacles this year, I think it can be reasonably concluded that we struck out in the STL area.  While we will more often than not fail to get guys who have offers from Duke/UNC/Kentucky, we need to be able to get players who have committed to schools like Creighton/K-St/Georgetown.

Like most Board posters, I look forward to an outstanding year next year, BUT that will be coming after most of the top 2021 recruits have committed, so we will be selling the program based on this years team combined with the known losses of 3 outstanding players.  The problem I see in getting top local recruits in the 2021 class is that, at least two of the best are in that tweener size 6'4" - 6'6"  (Kern and Nesbitt), a size area where we are overloaded.  Will we need a rebounding banger in that class?  Depends on if have have added Houston in the 2020 class and if we didn't and need to fill that role in 2021 are there any locals to do that?  Maybe so with the DeSmet twin towers.  Or maybe we need to go outside the local area to get another HF type. 

Re the PG issue, if we don't solve that problem in either the 2020 or 2021 classes,  maybe the solution is someone we can already see-the Soph PG at CBC.  One thing that YC has changed my mind about is the importance of an outstanding PG who can break a press and distribute the ball. 

I am glad we have Ford and his staff to solve these issues, because it sure doesn't look easy.

 

Jordan Nesbitt, Ty Ty Washington and Jordan Shorter are all big guards we've offered in the 2021 class who can play the 1, 2 or 3. Any of them would get the back up minutes at point when Yuri is out of the game.  

We have offers to multiple 6'7-6'10 bullies in the 2021 class. Now that they have French's minutes to sell, I have confidence that the staff will land one of them.  But I think the role of bully ball will be deemphasized in the future once the Double Double twins graduate.  We'll be more a perimeter/bully-ball hybrid.

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Taj, Fred’s chromosomal abnormality/mutation is not something one “recovers” from. It always will exist. Sometimes there is a course of treatment with androsterone/steroidal cocktail that can help manage the more significant episodes, but I haven’t seen any national/world class athletes who regained full athletic capacity at an original level after having episodes that shut them down completely.

Is Fred competing at 70% worth a scholarship, if in the future it will put his health at significant risk? One class of this genetic medical condition involves significant cardiopulmonary degradation and shortening of lifespan. We have seen SLU seek the medical redshirt for him, but without any well published medial prognosis, the MDs still don’t have a 95% CL swag on greenlighting him next year. 

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1 hour ago, Taj79 said:

One thing that scared me large yesterday was Yuri picking up his second and then third foul in the first half.  We do NOT have another PG currently on the roster and the easy turnovers by Jacobs and Goodwin, while manning the point in Yuri's absence, was telling.  Fatts' eight steals spoke volumes.  

According to Verbal Commits (to be authenticated by Pistol) we have 6 offers out to potential Point Guards for the Class of 2021 --- Brown, Shorter, Penn, Neal, Washington and Diggins.  Brown and Shorter are five- and four-star recruits; I don't really expect to get either.  But someone in that group has to come to us ---- it would be great with Yuri as a junior then.  I am okay with waiting for that group as even though Jacobs and Goodwin aren't it, they are decent enough yesterday notwithstanding.  Brown looks amazing at 6'7" but there are way too many big boys after him. Outside of us and Okie State, Shorter who is 6'5" has all the boys in Florida after him including Florida.  We need another point bad.

I can't see KCH hanging around.  Two years of no playing time, coupled with injuries, coupled with being behind Perks and Hargrove, coupled with incoming recruits Strickland and Lorentsson, just says no way.  Getting Donte Houston Jr. with that slot would be great.  There is no one on the roster between Houston and French for the next three years.  

Finally, there's Fred.  Hope like hell he's recovered but even if he were, he'd bounce down to a sophomore and put an unbalanced six scholarships in that class category.

Next year looks bright but we can get better.

 

Good post, but regarding the highlighted portion: It will still be five, because Jimerson will drop out of the class by being a freshman in eligibility.

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Sheltiedave, I really have no handle on how a mitochondrial myositis may affect organs like the heart in the long term, but I think it is quite likely that it might. At any rate, we have no reason to expect that Fred will be able to play at the same level as he was playing before.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

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5 minutes ago, ACE said:

With JG and HF set to graduate after next year, I think the top priority for any new additions should be on rebounding. That's a LOT of rebounding we will be losing with those two.

And a lot of points from the Perkulator too. Of course, we're counting on Jimerson to fill that void. 

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It should be a relatively easy sell to get a second point guard in the fold. Illinois got three, in Luther Head, Deron Williams, and Dee Brown, at one time, and made in to the F4 with no problem. No one could press them the entire year.

The sales pitch changes from playing time  to exposure time on tv and exposure playing in the big dance every year.

 

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22 hours ago, bauman said:

 

I  In any case we are going to need a PG to cover any injuries to Yuri and to ultimately take his spot.  As noted above, this will be a real difficult chore for TF.  With as many minutes as a healthy YC plays, not many high-level high school PGs will want to come here and sit for at least a year.  I guess a possible solution is a combo Guard whose strength is the PG position, but who can give us some minutes at the SG spot.

Re the PG issue, if we don't solve that problem in either the 2020 or 2021 classes,  maybe the solution is someone we can already see-the Soph PG at CBC.  One thing that YC has changed my mind about is the importance of an outstanding PG who can break a press and distribute the ball. 

 

Recruiting PG's in back to back years/classes does not work well. No good PG wants to sit behind Yuri for 3 years and trying to recruit over Yuri by replacing him next year also is not good for the team.  A 2 year gap is really best.  Now, if a mistake is made by the staff (for instance, if Yuri simply was not good), then of course you recruit over him.   Otherwise, recruiting a combo guard in the off years seems like a good plan.    The key is to have 2 to 3 options at PG at all times - like we do this year with Yuri, Goodwin and Jacobs.   But Yuri simply cannot play another other position other PG - so it is not a situation like with the Illini (Head, Williams and Brown) or with us in the past with KM, McCall and Jett.  And I believe Coach Ford knows this which is why he kept Jermaine Bishop along with Aaron Hines and Davel Roby, then tried to add combo guard Ty Graves, then got Goodwin to play PG as well only only to then lose Bishop and Graves all at once.    Then, with the next full year, Ford gets us Yuri 

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51 minutes ago, Sheltiedave said:

It should be a relatively easy sell to get a second point guard in the fold. Illinois got three, in Luther Head, Deron Williams, and Dee Brown, at one time, and made in to the F4 with no problem. No one could press them the entire year.

The sales pitch changes from playing time  to exposure time on tv and exposure playing in the big dance every year.

 

Kwamain, McCall, and Jett are another local example. 

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For me the biggest priority for recruiting is very straightforward: bringing in players who raise the talent level, regardless of position. We are in a position now where we have a potential top 25 squad next season, and lots of good underclassmen to keep things rolling after that. But in order to capitalize on this momentum, we need to be bringing in guys who can be all-conference players some day. I'm confident we can fill roster holes with grad transfers or spring signings, but I would hope our first priority is signing the best players available and figure out the position stuff later.

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The players we sign need to be multi tool players. Ford and co. Have done a great job further developing talent, but there is a need for skills.

scorers, shooters, ball handling, speed, tough D, rebounding, D1 ready bully bodies

Players who have four or more skills are the coveted players that go major D1, but we need to drive recruiting to the point where every recruit has at least one skill from the first line, two from the second, and is mature.

 

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1 hour ago, ACE said:

With JG and HF set to graduate after next year, I think the top priority for any new additions should be on rebounding. That's a LOT of rebounding we will be losing with those two.

Agreed, but it also feels that tFord is moving away from that type of playing style. The way we've been the last 2 years compared to where it seems we'll be in 2 years is night and day. From Bullyball to explosive lights-out offense

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1 minute ago, wgstl said:

Agreed, but it also feels that tFord is moving away from that type of playing style. The way we've been the last 2 years compared to where it seems we'll be in 2 years is night and day. From Bullyball to explosive lights-out offense

Ideally, I like having a mix of both. I think Ford wisely has recently added the skill/finesse to complement the bullies. Now with JG, HF and possibly FT departing, I want some bullies back in the mix. Don't want to see us a couple years down the road complaining about getting pushed around.

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Just now, ACE said:

Ideally, I like having a mix of both. I think Ford wisely has recently added the skill/finesse to complement the bullies. Now with JG, HF and possibly FT departing, I want some bullies back in the mix. Don't want to see us a couple years down the road complaining about getting pushed around.

Agreed, and next year will be just that. Bell and Fred will keep it going, but not as deep at bully ball as we once were. 

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8 minutes ago, wgstl said:

Agreed, but it also feels that tFord is moving away from that type of playing style. The way we've been the last 2 years compared to where it seems we'll be in 2 years is night and day. From Bullyball to explosive lights-out offense

One more thing to add, I don't think the plan was to have a whole roster of bullies, that's just how it played it in the aftermath of S2. All three players involved were more in the skill/finesse camp and would not fit the bully description.

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He hasn’t been moving away, he had to make emergency course corrections to accommodate for the lack of scoring. He did a great job in identifying both a short term, high volume scorer who had a handle, and a long term, immediate prolific outside shooter, and he then got both to sign.

You toss in the pure point guard, and a solid huge big who has a drive to improve, that is an incredible class under enormous pressure.

Now he needs a bully player or two. And again, Fred is a big ?.

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Just now, ACE said:

One more thing to add, I don't think the plan was to have a whole roster of bullies, that's just how it played it in the aftermath of S2. All three players involved were more in the skill/finesse camp and would not fit the bully description.

true. 

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2 minutes ago, wgstl said:

Agreed, and next year will be just that. Bell and Fred will keep it going, but not as deep at bully ball as we once were. 

I really like Jimmy, but I'm not sure he projects as a great rebounder. He's going to need some help and who knows about Fred.

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11 minutes ago, ACE said:

I really like Jimmy, but I'm not sure he projects as a great rebounder. He's going to need some help and who knows about Fred.

Id be surprised if he turned into a goodwin or french type of rebounder, but I could see a 7 per game type numbers. 

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13 minutes ago, ACE said:

I really like Jimmy, but I'm not sure he projects as a great rebounder. He's going to need some help and who knows about Fred.

I'm guessing here, but I would not be surprised if his first job is to block out the opponent's pivot (whom he is guarding) to allow Goodwin or French to grab the board.  Goodwin's freshman year, Ford said several players were instructed to block out first and allow Goodwin to get to the rim.  Roby, a strong rebounder, was sent back on D.

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3 hours ago, Sheltiedave said:

Taj, Fred’s chromosomal abnormality/mutation is not something one “recovers” from. It always will exist. Sometimes there is a course of treatment with androsterone/steroidal cocktail that can help manage the more significant episodes, but I haven’t seen any national/world class athletes who regained full athletic capacity at an original level after having episodes that shut them down completely.

Is Fred competing at 70% worth a scholarship, if in the future it will put his health at significant risk? One class of this genetic medical condition involves significant cardiopulmonary degradation and shortening of lifespan. We have seen SLU seek the medical redshirt for him, but without any well published medial prognosis, the MDs still don’t have a 95% CL swag on greenlighting him next year. 

These are all good points.  Also, I think even if he gets to 70% can you count on it staying at that level? - who knows but do you really want to take that risk whether you are Fred or Ford?  I feel for Fred but honestly he needs to keep the big  picture in focus - the remaining hopefully long life he has left to live.  Basketball is a love of his I understand and it but he has to think long term for his health.  SLU will allow him stay on track for his degree - we have seen it with Femi John.

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A couple of direct responses ....

Sheltie --- thanks for the correction.  Recover may have been the wrong word but it conveys what i was getting at for us non-medically inclined MBMs.  I am being careful in what I select here because I have spoken to Fred and he's a great kid.  But I have sincere doubts about whether or not he can regain/handle enough to be a D1 ballplayer ever again, regardless of the application for a medical redshirt or not.  

thicks --- thank you on the class correction regarding Jimmmmerson.  Yes, he'd still be considered a freshman.

NH --- I beg to differ on one area ... the point guard.  You need two in my book.  Chatman and Crutcher.  Dowtin and Russell.  Gilyard and Francis.  Carry and Dunn-Martin.  Weeks and East.  You always need someone on the floor pushing the ball, if that's the style of attack.  We all know we are a different team without Collins in there.  The change is obvious and the college game runs through the point guard.  I want two on the roster at all times.  But prefer two who have better mid-range games than what we are showing right now while expecting Collins to get better inthat area.

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18 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

A couple of direct responses ....

Sheltie --- thanks for the correction.  Recover may have been the wrong word but it conveys what i was getting at for us non-medically inclined MBMs.  I am being careful in what I select here because I have spoken to Fred and he's a great kid.  But I have sincere doubts about whether or not he can regain/handle enough to be a D1 ballplayer ever again, regardless of the application for a medical redshirt or not.  

thicks --- thank you on the class correction regarding Jimmmmerson.  Yes, he'd still be considered a freshman.

NH --- I beg to differ on one area ... the point guard.  You need two in my book.  Chatman and Crutcher.  Dowtin and Russell.  Gilyard and Francis.  Carry and Dunn-Martin.  Weeks and East.  You always need someone on the floor pushing the ball, if that's the style of attack.  We all know we are a different team without Collins in there.  The change is obvious and the college game runs through the point guard.  I want two on the roster at all times.  But prefer two who have better mid-range games than what we are showing right now while expecting Collins to get better inthat area.

Taj - I feel you, though I think about it a little differently. You need 2/3 guys who can be a primary ballhandler, bring it up against the press, initiate the offense, etc. I don't think you necessarily need 2 pure point guards (though I know you may not be saying they have to be classic point guards in the Chris Paul / John Stockton sense). I think you also need 2/3 guys who can protect the rim and defend the post. These players come in all different types. So I don't necessarily think we need to go out and find another Yuri, but we do need to make sure we have enough players who can handle the ball against pressure. Similarly, I don't think we need to go get another French, but we do need guys who can protect the rim defensively. Fortunately, if we recruit really talented players we will likely end up with plenty of guys with these types of traits.  

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