The Wiz Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 First , we need to get over the UMass game...if you are interested in how that happened, read the post game post on the UMass spread thread. Next , let's deal with post season....Our best chance now is to finish 4th...with the Duq loss tonight , there is now a path to 4th...not an easy one ...but a path...First and most difficult we need to win out...go 5-0...if that happens then we are chasing 3 teams...Duq and St. B and Dav....Assume Dav will lose to Day...we finish ahead of them...the key game that doesn't involve us is Feb 26...Duq vs St. B...somebody has to lose....let's start with Duq...1st I will assume they lose to Day on Feb 22...next, let's assume they beat St. B...then they need 1 loss against either GM , VCU or Rich and we are in 4th...next let's assume that St. B beats Duq on Feb 26...then St. B needs 1 loss to either Rich (2/22) , LaS or St. J...if that happens we finish 4th. If we finish 4th we still have to win the tourney but only need 3 games for the auto bid. ....You ask what if we only win 2 tourney games and finish with 24 wins...not good enough for an at large.... 33% chance for a bid....not all is lost ...but the odds are against us..... Of course as I mentioned , we have to still win out which bring us to this game with VCU. As you can see by the headline, this game will be close. When you review the report card you will see the grades are close with an edge to the Bills on rebounding. Overall , good chance for OT... Let's see what we are dealing with... ..............................SLU..........................VCU............................................................SLU...................................VCU ................................................OFF.....................................................................................................DEF............... PPG.........................C.............................C..................................................................B........................................B+ FG%.........................C+...........................D+.................................................................B+....................................B 3Pt%........................C..............................B-..................................................................C......................................C- FT%.........................F-....2nd WITN..........C... ....................................................................................................... Reb.........................A................................D+...............................................................C+.....................................D OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF rebs = opp reb Bills Offensive reb....A+....11th ITN....Unchanged Change from last game (UP means improvement ...Down means worse.......UP ....FG%.........DOWN.....PPG Top 100 ITN Stls....Goodwin ...29th.....up Assts...Y Collins....51th.....down Rebs...Goodwin...13th....French..17th......up and down Off Reb....French ...17th...Goodwin...30th...down and up Def reb......French...42nd...Goodwin ...34th....down & up Blks.....French....18th...up Dbl-Dbl.. Goodwin....French...22nd and 37th..up and down Reb...Santos-Silva....55th FG%...Santos-Silva...82nd Stls...Jenkins...44th Doub-Doub...Santos Silva...54th Report card notes...Think of VCU as UMass but with better 3P shooting and better Def FG% Injury report... Thatch....1/8/20...Out indefinitely...No change Evans.....G....2/19/20...Questionable...knee...up in the air if he will be in the lineup Fri. WWN2D2W...Mr VCU is Santos-Silva...he leads the team in PPG , Reb, FG%, & Blks. ..no double double ...hold him to a single - single. As you can see by the injury report , Evans is questionable...he is one of their scorers and 3 pt shooters. If he is out, Hyland will pickup the slack...in the last game against Day he was the high scorer with 18 pts.....keep this guy to 10 pts. We should win the reb battle by at least 6...TOs...VCU is 3rd ITN with 9.8/gm...we need to match them...protect the ball ...no unforced errors....Bills slash...46/35/62 Bottom line...The key to this game will be TOs ...also whether Evans plays or not......If Evans doesn't play and we beat them in TOs , we should win...if one of those things happens the Bills will have the edge. Foul trouble could be a factor if it comes down to the wire or goes into OT...watch out for hack-a-Has...and finally , we play to the competition...which in this case will be a plus..... Go Bills Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLU_Nick Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 That 2nd paragraph is an excellent summary of the double bye situation. Much appreciated Wiz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 -looking at KenPom VCU gets a turnover on 25.3% of their defensive possessions, 6th ITN, for reference our defense gets a t/o on 19.9% for 114 ITN -the quote by Yuri in the Post about not practicing against a press has to have the Rams licking their chops -let's have a fun Blue Out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 6 minutes ago, Cowboy said: -the quote by Yuri in the Post about not practicing against a press has to have the Rams licking their chops Can you add on to this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 25 minutes ago, wgstl said: Can you add on to this? From the UMass game story. Cowboy stretched this a little, in my opinion. “I had a couple of unforced where I was rushing a little bit,” Collins said. “I had some early turnovers that kind of messed us up and put us in a bad position. We don’t have too many teams press us in this league, so we don’t practice it a lot. Coach wants the ball in my hands so I take the blame for the turnovers we had.” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 26 minutes ago, HoosierPal said: From the UMass game story. Cowboy stretched this a little, in my opinion. “I had a couple of unforced where I was rushing a little bit,” Collins said. “I had some early turnovers that kind of messed us up and put us in a bad position. We don’t have too many teams press us in this league, so we don’t practice it a lot. Coach wants the ball in my hands so I take the blame for the turnovers we had.” -I agree, I needed "much" between "practicing" and "against" - point still stands Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juniorbill76 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Wiz, what happens to your dance projection if one of our 2 (not 3) A-10 tourney wins happens to be over Dayton? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 21, 2020 Author Share Posted February 21, 2020 5 hours ago, juniorbill76 said: Wiz, what happens to your dance projection if one of our 2 (not 3) A-10 tourney wins happens to be over Dayton? Good question...probably not much....we would still be in the neighborhood of a 1/3 chance....maybe 3/8 to 2/5 chance. While there is no question a win over Dayton would help our numbers ...it wouldn't help as much as you would think at 1st glance. Dayton's numbers would go down because they just lost to a lesser team (us) . A bigger factor in determining ranking is how the other 25 teams we played during the season have done...If in the final days of the season 20 of the 25 teams we played wind up winning a lot ...then our numbers can move up even more than a dramatic win....Take the UMass game the other night... we had a grade of B going into the game....numbers were weakening...Once we lost to UMass , I thought sure we would drop down to a B-...but teams we had beaten earlier were doing pretty well. So even though UMass had a losing record overall and in conference , we were able to hold onto the B.... Sometimes ranking is affected by sequencing...ie. the order of the games....For example , let's go back to Jan .17, Day OT win against us at the buzzer...Now let's assume the long 3 shot at the end of OT misses....we not only get the immediate boost from beating a better team but we get the continuing boost as Day wins out the season. By winning in the tourney against Day ...there is no additional boost going forward as Dayton's season ends. In the end ,with the right combination of wins (all our opponents win their league tourneys) and we get to 24 wins it is possible to get as high as 50-50. It is all like a giant rubic's cube...every time you change something , it affects everything else. Let's just win that 3rd game and take the auto bid. It shouldn't be too tough because according to you , we just beat Dayton. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 5 // VCU leads the all-time series 10-3. The Billikens haven't beaten the Rams since the 2013-14 season. Man, time to start turning this around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Sagarin has VCU by .73, rounded off to 1 point. cbssports.com says SLU +1.5, meaning SLU is a 1.5 point underdog, with the game's Over-Under at o130.5. I think SLU is a home underdog, albeit slight, in this very important game for both teams. The game is on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. Central. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyJumpUp Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 VCU up to -2 in several Vegas casinos Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 21, 2020 Author Share Posted February 21, 2020 The unknown in this game is ....if or how much will Evans play....As we get closer to game time, gamblers are betting he will play The last game he played at full strength was against Dav nearly 2 weeks ago. He tried to play in the GM game after that and was only able to make 1 FT. A year ago he killed us in a 6 pt loss to the Rams. He scored a game high 20 pts ...54/80/38/60. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 22, 2020 Author Share Posted February 22, 2020 A great Bills win. When Has finished the game with a reverse slam dunk..I thought ...probably not a good idea....but then I thought it was a fitting exclamation point to a huge win....Why? Because we haven't beaten the Rams since 2013 (0-9). A lot of frustration washed away with this game...... A tip o' the cap to star of the game Perkins ...not just for his 25 pts but some eye popping stats...check out his slash...72/ 75/100...you know that Magic 180 Majerus line I always talk about...he blew through that with a whopping 247. Did I mention the 7 reb, plus a steal and a block? It doesn't get any better. ...Other good performances tonight were Has shooting 72% from the field to rack up 18 pts with 7 reb, 3 asst, 2 blks and 2 steals.. coming off the bench Hargrove had 11pts. and 4 reb and was like a spark plug to the team and crowd with some spectacular slam dunks.....Goodwin another dble -dble 10 pts and 11 rebs...all together 4 Bills in double figures. Lets review the WWN2D2W from the original post up top....in bold .Mr VCU is Santos-Silva...he leads the team in PPG , Reb, FG%, & Blks. ..no double double ...hold him to a single - single.. Almost...11pts and 6 reb....good job on him If he(Evans) is out, Hyland will pickup the slack...in the last game against Day he was the high scorer with 18 pts.....keep this guy to 10 pts. Check..we hold him to 3pts. We should win the reb battle by at least 6...Crushed them on the boards by 15...this was a huge factor in the game. TOs...VCU is 3rd ITN with 9.8/gm...we need to match them...protect the ball ...no unforced errors...We actual had fewer TOs nearly the entire game...It was only in the closing minutes with the game well in hand did we give up a few TOs to give them the edge..11-13 ....Keeping the TOs down was big in helping us build the lead. .Bills slash...46/35/62...actual slash...57 /44/50..a difference maker...let me also show you the VCU slash...40/28/58...and that's what good Bills D looks like ..The key to this game will be whether Evans plays or not...well he played but not really...13 min and 1 pt...last year when VCU beat us by 6 , Evans scored 20...this year he scores 1 pt...a swing of 19 pts...almost the same swing as the game spread...again that is what good Bills D looks like. and finally , we play to the competition...which in this case will be a plus.....we certainly played to the competition and then some...We played 2 good halves...what a difference that makes Next , let's deal with post season....Our best chance now is to finish 4th...with the Duq loss tonight , there is now a path to 4th...not an easy one ...but a path...First and most difficult we need to win out...go 5-0...if that happens then we are chasing 3 teams...Duq and St. B and Dav....Assume Dav will lose to Day...we finish ahead of them...the key game that doesn't involve us is Feb 26...Duq vs St. B...somebody has to lose....let's start with Duq...1st I will assume they lose to Day on Feb 22...next, let's assume they beat St. B...then they need 1 loss against either GM , VCU or Rich and we are in 4th...next let's assume that St. B beats Duq on Feb 26...then St. B needs 1 loss to either Rich (2/22) , LaS or St. J...if that happens we finish 4th. If we finish 4th we still have to win the tourney but only need 3 games for the auto bid. ....You ask what if we only win 2 tourney games and finish with 24 wins...not good enough for an at large.... 33% chance for a bid....not all is lost ...but the odds are against us....I put this in again because it is still relevant...the only difference is we now need only 4 wins to finish 4th. QUAILMAN and Pistol like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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