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The Bills over UMass by 2


The Wiz

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The bolded statements are from my original post...

 So then why is it so close.... The UMass home field advantage knocks off 7 pts (home field lost and away field gained.) plus there is  our tendency to play to the competition....Looks about right.

Mr UMass is Tre Mitchell...if left unchecked he can score over 20 pts a game...in the  game against RI  he scored 30....in the last game against Day he scored 26...let's cut that in half to 13 pts... He scored 24....even if we would have just held him to his average of 17pts /gm we would have picked up 7 pts....a difference maker

 Their only other major threat is Santos from the arc....hold him to one  3PM... He scored three 3s...an extra 6 pts...a difference maker

   If this is a close game  then TOs will be important and while we should win the TO battle....we won't if we give up 15 again. ...Well the good news is we didn't give up 15 TOs again...only 14.....BUT Umass knocked off 14 from their TO total and wound up with 11....TO differential...3...worth 6 pts...a difference maker. 

It looks to me like we can average 11 TOs /gm...any time the number goes above that it is usually unforced errors or mistakes ....This seems about right ...at least 3 unforced errors or mistakes...those extra 3 TOs ...again worth 3...note ...getting to 11 TOs and having a differential of 3 TOs are not the same ...although they were tonight.

Bottom line...If we play to the competition...to the UMass level, then it will be time to get out the nail clippers. If we play it close and something goes wrong, it will not be a pretty picture.....This is probably a good place to end the analysis. Had we done anyone of the above 4 items ....we would have won the game.

 

 

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