The Wiz Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 For those with a strong stomach, you can look at the post game post on the spread thread for Duq. for the results analysis. It was the 1st game after Ground Hog Day and turned out like the movie ....same thing over & over...with the same result...a 14 pt loss. Well the good news is even with the numbers deteriorating we remain a B team....The bad news is that we have slipped to C+ on the trending line....meanwhile Day comes in at an A+ & A +. This is easily the best offensive team we have faced or will face this year. Besides the spread in the headline of this post, if we take the trend line spread ....it gets worse ...21pts. Let's get down in the dirt and see what the report card looks like.... ..............................SLU...........................Day...............................................................SLU................................DAY ................................................OFF.....................................................................................................DEF............... PPG.........................C...............................A+..4th ITN...................................................B......................................B FG%.........................C-..............................A+...1st ITN............................................... ..B+...................................C+ 3Pt%........................C-..............................A..................................................................C-.....................................D FT%.........................F-....WITN..................B-... ....................................................................................................... Reb.........................A.................................C................................................................C.......................................A OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF rebs = opp reb Bills Offensive reb....A+....8th ITN....unchanged Change from last game (UP means improvement ...Down means worse....UP ....none......... DOWN......Reb.....Def PPG.....Def FG%...Def 3P% Top 100 ITN Stls....Goodwin ...29th.....up Assts...Y Collins....43rd.....down Rebs...French...9th....Goodwin..16th......unchanged and down Off Reb....French ...9th...Goodwin...41st...unchanged and down Def reb...Goodwin ...20th...French...32th....down & up Blks.....French....15th...up FG% ...Toppin... 31st (62.8 %) PPG...Toppin....29th (19.7) Assts...Crutcher...44th Injury report...... Thatch...G..1/ 8/20....out indefinitely...no change Johnson...F...1/10/2020...OFTS.....medically withdrawn...post concussion syndrome.& mono Sissoke...C...11/11/19.....OFTS.....Red shirt Before we figure out how to win we need to look at the last game with Day because except for the final tenth of a second in OT when they threw up a prayer...we had them beat.......so yes it is possible...First let's look at the Day slash...45/ 36 / 68..rather mediocre for a team that has the best FG% ITN and is 4th ITN in 3P%....The Bills had 45/ 33/ 54....very similar to the best offense ITN....and for the naysayers who say... AHA... FREE THROWS...Let me point out we made 7 more FTs than Day....Also we had 45 reb to their 33 ...dominant. ...our weakness last game was TOs as we lost that battle 17-12...not only did the TO differential cost us 10 pts....but we went over the magic number of 16 which usually leads to a loss. WWN2D2W...Do what we did last time...Match them on the slash...by holding them down defensively and making some shots.... one of the few weaknesses that Day has is 3P def...the question is can we take advantage of that ...can we make the 3s?...Dominate the boards again....protect the ball...shoot for 11 TOs....stop Toppin...he had 20 last game which is his average but since it was an OT game this was a good job on him....if Toppin is having trouble scoring (is this an oxymoron?) they will look for Crutcher who actually was the high scorer in the last game with 21 pts...need to hold both players to less than 20 pts....and finally hold them to below 70 pts...a good thing to do to a team that averages over 80 /gm. Bottom line...So how does it look ? On paper ...not good....but remember we play to the competition which in this case is a good thing...To quote Jim Carrey...."So you mean there's a chance" Yes ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLIKNS Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Law of averages says Dayton is due to lose, we should be plenty pissed...Like Al Bundy would say....Let's Rock David King likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLU_Nick Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 This might be the first Billiken game I can remember that I intentionally find something else to do other than watch. I am not going to be able to handle the stomping in front of a packed house of sweater vests. I feel like this might just be an post-game evening box score check. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 -I still believe 3 possible outcomes, we win, lose a close one or lose by 35 -Wiz, what is Dayton's home court advantage versus ours? -Let's get this one Bills! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Sagarin agrees, says Dayton by 14.52, rounded off to 15. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 38 minutes ago, SLU_Nick said: This might be the first Billiken game I can remember that I intentionally find something else to do other than watch. 2014-2016 wasnt too long ago SLUMedBilliken15 and NextYearBill like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 7, 2020 Author Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 hour ago, Cowboy said: -I still believe 3 possible outcomes, we win, lose a close one or lose by 35 -Wiz, what is Dayton's home court advantage versus ours? -Let's get this one Bills! The Fetz home advantage....4.17 Dayton ...Home advantage...4.72 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 -thank you, Wiz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbofive Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 4 hours ago, SLU_Nick said: This might be the first Billiken game I can remember that I intentionally find something else to do other than watch. I am not going to be able to handle the stomping in front of a packed house of sweater vests. I feel like this might just be an post-game evening box score check. I refuse to watch car crashes, but I'll watch this. I think this is the type of team that might pull out the W against Dayton and still not make the tourney. Might as well watch the games I can. Because I'm not watching the fuoking NIT. JohnnyJumpUp and Littlebill like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, jimbofive said: I refuse to watch car crashes, but I'll watch this. I think this is the type of team that might pull out the W against Dayton and still not make the tourney. Might as well watch the games I can. Because I'm not watching the fuoking NIT. As I posted earlier. We get upset at this team but man, just 3-6 years go we had some p.a.t.h.e.t.i.c. teams. RIP HUMPS likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbofive Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 13 minutes ago, wgstl said: As I posted earlier. We get upset at this team but man, just 3-6 years go we had some p.a.t.h.e.t.i.c. teams. No doubt. Supportive, but not content. Team should feel the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Payback. Perfect payback would be JGood hitting both ends of a 1-1 with 1 tick on the clock and we win by 1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box and Won Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 I'm not particularly enthused about this game, but it's as good of an excuse as any to day drink. JohnnyJumpUp and wgstl like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiseAndGrind Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 10 minutes ago, Box and Won said: I'm not particularly enthused about this game, but it's as good of an excuse as any to day drink. Read my mind Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Littlebill Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 hour ago, jimbofive said: No doubt. Supportive, but not content. Team should feel the same. If I watched Jolly, Gillmann, Reynolds and Hines, I'm certainly going to be watching this. Bills are playing a top 10 team - imagine not watching JohnnyJumpUp and David King like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLU_Nick Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 20 minutes ago, Littlebill said: If I watched Jolly, Gillmann, Reynolds and Hines, I'm certainly going to be watching this. Bills are playing a top 10 team - imagine not watching This is the correct take. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Band Legend Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 It's time for our guys to ask for paystubs- backyard brawl, y'all! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thetorch Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 4 hours ago, Littlebill said: If I watched Jolly, Gillmann, Reynolds and Hines, I'm certainly going to be watching this. Bills are playing a top 10 team - imagine not watching Leaves Hines out of it. Just a walkon. He would have never played if the scholarship players didn't suck so much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spoon-Balls Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Bills don't need to play nervous or apprehensive for this one because nothing is really on the line for us at this point. Just let loose and go all out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 4 hours ago, SLU_Nick said: This is the correct take. +1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 C'mon, folks, all is not lost. Upsets are the rule this year. Let's go Bills! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Schasz Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 55 minutes ago, slu72 said: C'mon, folks, all is not lost. Upsets are the rule this year. Let's go Bills! It is possible. Just the other night Vandy with 0 SEC wins beat LSU who was undefeated. Lots of things will have to go the Bills way tomorrow as they got Dayton's attention when the 1st game was played at Chaifetz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidlee Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Schasz(John) Check your messages on this board davidlee(Dave) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spoonball18 Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 If I can sit through a early season drubbing by SH, a frustrating loss to Davidson, and 2 beat downs by the Dukes—-I will watch this beginning to end even if we get blown out by 30. I want to see this team fight back (which I believe they will). I’m hoping for at least a respectable showing with a outside chance of a upset. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 8, 2020 Author Share Posted February 8, 2020 Again , close but no cigar. We played a good game. I think if French doesn't foul out , we win. We did almost everything we needed to do to win....Almost though doesn't cut it against the 6th rated team ITN and you are away....you have to be perfect. Let's see the story behind the numbers....from WWN2D2W in the original post. First the good stuff... Match them on the slash...by holding them down defensively and making some shots.....We did this pretty much....Bills...49/46/63...that is a good slash....Day...49/29//74...we actually had 2 extra FGM...and matched them on 3PM...more on FTs below. one of the few weaknesses that Day has is 3P def...the question is can we take advantage of that ...can we make the 3s?...the answer is yes...see slash above Dominate the boards again...We did...33-27 stop Toppin...he had 20 last game which is his average but since it was an OT game this was a good job on him....if Toppin is having trouble scoring (is this an oxymoron?) they will look for Crutcher who actually was the high scorer in the last game with 21 pts...need to hold both players to less than 20 pts.....This too was a success...even though those 2 were their high scorers...we held both to 17...both held to less than 20...success And now the bad... protect the ball...shoot for 11 TOs....We had 13 TOs which isn't too bad....4 less than last time and close enough to 11....but in the end even with a pretty good number this was one of the killers...Why? ... because Day had only 6 TOs...a difference of 7 TOs which is a lot ...worth 14 pts...a game changer FTs...Yes they beat us on % but that wasn't what did us in ...as I have preached before on a number of posts...it was the FTAs that was the difference maker...they had an extra 11 FTAs...worth an extra 8 pts...a game changer...Most of the games we have played this year we have had the advantage in FTAs... when we don't, we tend to lose. and finally hold them to below 70 pts....Almost but not quite...just like the game almost but not quite...Why ? ...see the above 2 items. Bottom line...Almost...If French has played a full game or if we had a little more depth (missing players) we could have had this one (as well as the last Day game) We will just have to beat them next time in Brooklyn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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