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The Bills over Ford by 16


The Wiz

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A painful loss to Dav suddenly make the road to postseason a bit steeper.  It will be important for The Bills to finish in the top 4 of the A-10 for a good playoff spot.  If you have a strong stomach and would like to find out the gory details of how we lost to Dav , checkout the post game post in the Dav spread thread.

So based on the headline of this thread...we got this one....well almost.  Fham is not only the worst offensive team in the A-10 but one of the worst ITN.  They are at  D  and their offense is going from worse to worst. Meanwhile , even with our loss to Dav , we remain at B where we have been most of the season....The numbers that changed are trend line numbers which have come down to B also...So we are now a B  and B , which is only a good thing if you are a Country Inn. ...For the Bills B and B spells NIT at this point....about a 75% chance.  So at least we got this game ...right?  Again, almost.  The problem for the Bills in this game is that Fham has a pretty good defense...not good enough to make up for an F- offense but if that defense combines with a Bills cold streak on shooting...well that's where the almost comes from.  I don't expect that to happen ...the point spread should be good because Fham has some other issues....

Let's see what we are dealing with here.....

 

..............................SLU...........................For.................................................................SLU...............................For

................................................OFF.....................................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................C...............................F-.....5th WITN.............................................B......................................A

FG%.........................C...............................F-......10th WITN...................................... ..B+.....................................B

3Pt%........................C-..............................D+..............................................................D+.....................................B

FT%.........................F-. 2nd Worst ITN......F-... ...14th WITN....................................................................................................

Reb.........................A..................................D-...............................................................C.......................................C

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF rebs = opp reb

 Bills  Offensive reb....A+....10th  ITN....down

Change from last game (UP means improvement ...Down means worse)....UP ....3P%.......... DOWN......PPG...FG%

Top 100 ITN

Stls....Goodwin ...36st.....down

Assts...Y Collins....38th.....unchanged

Rebs...Goodwin..11th.....French...15th.....up and up

Off Reb....French ...10th...Goodwin...59th...up and up

Def reb...Goodwin ...18th...French...44th...unchanged and down

Blks.....French....17th...down

Assts...Cobb...60th

A couple of notes on the report card....SLU leads Army for last place in FT% by 3 hundreds of 1%...also, Goodwin leads French in rebounding by .07 of a RPG...If French gets one more reb than Goodwin in the next game ...they will be in a virtual tie.

Injury report....

Thatch...1/8/20...Out indefinitely...no change

Chuba Ohams...1/13/20...out for the season...knee...

Antwon Portley...1/19/20...OI...ankle...No time table for recovery.

With Chuba and Portley (their 2nd and 3rd leading scorers ) out ...Fordham won't be living off the fat of the land this game.

So with these rash of injuries to key players in the last 10 days things are not looking up for the Rams....worse to worst

WWN2D2W....Score some points....44/33/57...nothing fancy just play Bills  ball...dominate the boards by at least 8...Win the TO battle...keep them under 60pts...with a good game on defense we might be able to hold them to around 50.  We have 1 player to stop ...Cobb...hold him to single digits....Also they have a good 3 P guy in Perry...no open shots for him....keep him at 35%.

Bottom line....I will live you with the words of Elvis....TCOB

 

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Personnel:  Fordham is Fordham.  PIG bad, as usual.  The loss of Ohams and Portley takes about 20 ppg out of an already weak lineup.  Anything short of a home blowout will be a disappointment.  The only thing I will watch for is how we defend Jalen Cobb, another diminutive point guard  (6'1") who will always have the ball in his hands.  His 22 against GeeDubya won that game for the Rams which I found surprising considering the hurt GeeDubya laid on the road at Umass the game prior.  Another learning opportunity for Yuri Collins.

Eyisi is a decent rim protector at 6'9" and Ivan Raut adds bulk at 6'7" but is as earth-bound as Bates Jones was for Davidson.  I suspect Hasahn will be looking to recover well from his Davidson showing.  Will we blow them out or have another level-of-competition game where we play to a lesser level and do just enough down the stretch?  I will also watch to see if Neubauer packs it in the paint and tries the McKillop defense against us.  I would.

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SLU has a penchant to play down to the level of its competition (i.e. High Point) or up to the level of its competition (i.e. Auburn, Dayton).

I was sweating bullets last year, monitoring from the other Coast, when SLU rallied to barely beat Fordham at Rose Hill Gym.

SLU should win, The Wiz clearly has the nitty gritty, but I'm expecting a closer game than 16 points.  I'm hoping for at least a 10 point SLU Win for maximum NET points.  Only a Win is acceptable.

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17 hours ago, The Wiz said:

A painful loss to Dav suddenly make the road to postseason a bit steeper.  It will be important for The Bills to finish in the top 4 of the A-10 for a good playoff spot.  If you have a strong stomach and would like to find out the gory details of how we lost to Dav , checkout the post game post in the Dav spread thread.

So based on the headline of this thread...we got this one....well almost.  Fham is not only the worst offensive team in the A-10 but one of the worst ITN.  They are at  D  and their offense is going from worse to worst. Meanwhile , even with our loss to Dav , we remain at B where we have been most of the season....The numbers that changed are trend line numbers which have come down to B also...So we are now a B  and B , which is only a good thing if you are a Country Inn. ...For the Bills B and B spells NIT at this point....about a 75% chance.  So at least we got this game ...right?  Again, almost.  The problem for the Bills in this game is that Fham has a pretty good defense...not good enough to make up for an F- offense but if that defense combines with a Bills cold streak on shooting...well that's where the almost comes from.  I don't expect that to happen ...the point spread should be good because Fham has some other issues....

Let's see what we are dealing with here.....

 

..............................SLU...........................For.................................................................SLU...............................For

................................................OFF.....................................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................C...............................F-.....5th WITN.............................................B......................................A

FG%.........................C...............................F-......10th WITN...................................... ..B+.....................................B

3Pt%........................C-..............................D+..............................................................D+.....................................B

FT%.........................F-. 2nd Worst ITN......F-... ...14th WITN....................................................................................................

Reb.........................A..................................D-...............................................................C.......................................C

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF rebs = opp reb

 Bills  Offensive reb....A+....10th  ITN....down

Change from last game (UP means improvement ...Down means worse)....UP ....3P%.......... DOWN......PPG...FG%

Top 100 ITN

Stls....Goodwin ...36st.....down

Assts...Y Collins....38th.....unchanged

Rebs...Goodwin..11th.....French...15th.....up and up

Off Reb....French ...10th...Goodwin...59th...up and up

Def reb...Goodwin ...18th...French...44th...unchanged and down

Blks.....French....17th...down

Assts...Cobb...60th

A couple of notes on the report card....SLU leads Army for last place in FT% by 3 hundreds of 1%...also, Goodwin leads French in rebounding by .07 of a RPG...If French gets one more reb than Goodwin in the next game ...they will be in a virtual tie.

Injury report....

Thatch...1/8/20...Out indefinitely...no change

Chuba Ohams...1/13/20...out for the season...knee...

Antwon Portley...1/19/20...OI...ankle...No time table for recovery.

With Chuba and Portley (their 2nd and 3rd leading scorers ) out ...Fordham won't be living off the fat of the land this game.

So with these rash of injuries to key players in the last 10 days things are not looking up for the Rams....worse to worst

WWN2D2W....Score some points....44/33/57...nothing fancy just play Bills  ball...dominate the boards by at least 8...Win the TO battle...keep them under 60pts...with a good game on defense we might be able to hold them to around 50.  We have 1 player to stop ...Cobb...hold him to single digits....Also they have a good 3 P guy in Perry...no open shots for him....keep him at 35%.

Bottom line....I will live you with the words of Elvis....TCOB

 

Wiz, just curious as to why you don't list KCH in your injury report?

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11 minutes ago, bauman said:

Wiz, just curious as to why you don't list KCH in your injury report?

I take the injury reports from the Official Injury Reports issued by the schools...SLU only has Thatch and Jimerson listed as injured. I don't list Jimerson anymore because everyone knows he is out for the season. If KCH is not listed then he is not Officially listed as injured. 

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17 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

I take the injury reports from the Official Injury Reports issued by the schools...SLU only has Thatch and Jimerson listed as injured. I don't list Jimerson anymore because everyone knows he is out for the season. If KCH is not listed then he is not Officially listed as injured. 

Got it, then I wonder what's wrong with the school's Official Report.  Why would they not be listing a guy who has not been suited up to play at least the last two games?

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11 minutes ago, bauman said:

Got it, then I wonder what's wrong with the school's Official Report.  Why would they not be listing a guy who has not been suited up to play at least the last two games?

Maybe he's not injured or maybe it's something else.

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If a guy is able, then you need him suited up on the bench just in case.  Injuries.  Fouls.  Whatever.  Is that why Diarra played at Davidson?  I did not notice Mr. Hankton's presence nor absence, but I wasn't looking for him either.  Did he not make grades?  Is he in the transfer portal?  Kind of odd to be so quiet. 

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The passing of KB led to a somewhat subdued crowd...Mamba forever.

As for the game...that went  as expected....16 pt spread ...16 pt win.

Let's look at WWN2D2W again....highlights from the original post....

we got this one...pretty much from the opening tip...we had this one.

Fham is not only the worst offensive team in the A-10 but one of the worst ITN....True...31//22/31...the numbers pretty much speak for themselves.

 The problem for the Bills in this game is that Fham has a pretty good defense...not good enough to make up for an F- offense ....True....defense was good (we scored only 55) but also true that it wasn't good enough to make up for a terrible offense.

the point spread should be good...yes it was

.Score some points....44/33/57...actual 44/22/65...yes/no/ yes...the only fail was 3P shooting...again...but as bad as it was , we matched Fham from the perimeter.

Win the TO battle...we lost this one (11-7 ) but only because FHam had an excellent night protecting the ball.. Still our 11 was very good and we were able to make it up in other ways..

dominate the boards by at least 8...yes we did and then some....nearly double the projection... 15 extra rebs...great job.

We have 1 player to stop ...Cobb...hold him to single digits....Also they have a good 3 P guy in Perry...no open shots for him....keep him at 35%....We didn't hold Cobb to 9 but we did shut him down by allowing only 12 pts.....and Perry only hit 17% from the arc...

keep them under 60pts...with a good game on defense we might be able to hold them to around 50...we did and we did...in fact by holding them to 39 it was the 2nd fewest pts that the Bills have ever allowed in the A-10...38 against GW is the record

Bottom line... we played a so-so game...we made the spread...shot average except for 3s.......points scored  in the 2nd half...23-23...in other words we played down to the competition...even our TO rate which was good...we still had a few throw aways that were careless.....but in the end it was a good win...why ?  because all wins are good....some are just better than others.... I had a fan ask me today which I thought was better...a blowout like today or a close loss to Dayton....I told him, I will always take the win...Let's keep taking them.

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