The Bills and Davidson..The winner is.....

[slu72]

1 minute ago, NH said:

I get the sense that Davidson is the polar opposite of SLU. I think we are a better team, but there is also a very feasible scenario in which they hit jump shots, we don't, and they're able to build a sizable advantage. I'd like to see us be really aggressive in driving the ball and getting to the free throw line. 

You want us on the FT line? 

[Pistol]

2 minutes ago, RiseAndGrind said:

The game tomorrow will tell the rest of the season, imho

I wanted to call it an inflection point, but given the next three opponents after Davidson, I don't think that's true. We could and should still be 6-3 in two weeks if we lose this game.

I think it's more of a ceiling on our season if we lose, basically cementing us as an NIT team already instead of a bubble team.

[Pistol]

4 minutes ago, NH said:

I get the sense that Davidson is the polar opposite of SLU. I think we are a better team, but there is also a very feasible scenario in which they hit jump shots, we don't, and they're able to build a sizable advantage. I'd like to see us be really aggressive in driving the ball and getting to the free throw line. 

I tend to agree. Bully ball all the way in this one. Go at the rim, grab offensive boards. Don't foul them.

1 minute ago, slu72 said:

You want us on the FT line? 

@The Wiz frames it more in terms of FTs made than FT%. It doesn't matter if we shoot 55% if we're getting to the line twice as much as Davidson. And they don't go to the line much at all, so we certainly have a chance to do so if we bully them.

We basically know who we are at this point. We don't hit FTs or even attempt 3-pointers. We have to rebound everything, finish, defend hard and cleanly, protect the ball, and force turnovers. It's rare we do all of those in a single game but even if we just do most of those things well, we should be all right.

We also know this team has historically not been the strongest road performer since joining the A10 and is good for a couple trainwreck conference road games a season (St. Joe's last season, for example). I'm hoping Duquesne was our one this season, even if we don't go undefeated in the rest of them.

[NH]

5 minutes ago, slu72 said:

You want us on the FT line? 

I want everybody other than Has getting to the line. 

Also (as has been the case for every game since GJ went down), I think the biggest key will be limiting free throws. 

[billikenfan05]

Davidson stinks this year

[NH]

1 minute ago, Pistol said:

I tend to agree. Bully ball all the way in this one. Go at the rim, grab offensive boards. Don't foul them.

@The Wiz frames it more in terms of FTs made than FT%. It doesn't matter if we shoot 55% if we're getting to the line twice as much as Davidson. And they don't go to the line much at all, so we certainly have a chance to do so if we bully them.

We basically know who we are at this point. We don't hit FTs or even attempt 3-pointers. We have to rebound everything, finish, defend hard and cleanly, protect the ball, and force turnovers. It's rare we do all of those in a single game but even if we just do most of those things well, we should be all right.

We also know this team has historically not been the strongest road performer since joining the A10 and is good for a couple trainwreck conference road games a season (St. Joe's last season, for example). I'm hoping Duquesne was our one this season, even if we don't go undefeated in the rest of them.

Further to this, we average 0.99 points per possession overall and 0.97 on the road. Even as bad as we are at Free Throws, it's still a more efficient play for us than our average possession.  

[hmart23]

I would obviously be happy with any win, but I truly think we need to come out and control this from the start. Business trip. Don't even let Davidson think they have a chance of winning the game from the tip. Take care of the ball and dominate the glass. Make sure the rest of the A-10 knows we are firmly in the top group of teams. Bills by 16 would give me some faith.

[Pistol]

17 minutes ago, NH said:

Further to this, we average 0.99 points per possession overall and 0.97 on the road. Even as bad as we are at Free Throws, it's still a more efficient play for us than our average possession.  

This is true, even at 57.4% - Tied for worst in the nation with Army (who said FTs are all about discipline?).

Davidson has no depth, especially down low, so I'm fine with everyone going at the rim and the team chasing offensive boards. I'm looking for a strong follow-up game from Perkins and I wouldn't mind seeing a little more Hargrove than normal.

By the way, does anyone know why that stat page only goes to 350 even though there are 353 D-I teams?

[hmart23]

3 minutes ago, Pistol said:

This is true, even at 55.4% - Tied for worst in the nation with Army (who said FTs are all about discipline?).

Davidson has no depth, especially down low, so I'm fine with everyone going at the rim and the team chasing offensive boards. I'm looking for a strong follow-up game from Perkins and I wouldn't mind seeing a little more Hargrove than normal.

By the way, does anyone know why that stat page only goes to 350 even though there are 353 D-I teams?

I think it has to do with the newer D1 teams. Technically being probationary. I could be wrong. I believe I read this somewhere on the board. 

[MichaelC]

30 minutes ago, Pistol said:

I wanted to call it an inflection point, but given the next three opponents after Davidson, I don't think that's true. We could and should still be 6-3 in two weeks if we lose this game.

I think it's more of a ceiling on our season if we lose, basically cementing us as an NIT team already instead of a bubble team.

Agree 100%, don't think there is any way to get an at large bid if we lose to a team with a NET of 100+ and possibly worse beating those kinds of teams (which now comprise more than half of the A10) doesn't help much either. 

Still, I would like to see us curb stomp these next 4 teams from start to finish. 

[BIG BILL FAN]

34 minutes ago, slu72 said:

You want us on the FT line? 

Yes, getting your opponent into foul trouble is huge, particularly when your opponent lacks depth to begin with...

[Matty Light]

We have to defend the 3 against this team.  That should be objective #1 with a bullet.  It's how they beat us in the past and it's amazing we haven't lost some games where we left a lot of 3-pt shots wide open.  We've been fortunate that many of those shots have been missed.  I think we need to relax the pressure traps and double teams in the paint.  Let's D them straight up. Make them get all the way to the bucket.  If we force the game into the half court and we don't run under screens like the last two seasons, we should be able to smoke these fools.

[slufanskip]

52 minutes ago, NH said:

Further to this, we average 0.99 points per possession overall and 0.97 on the road. Even as bad as we are at Free Throws, it's still a more efficient play for us than our average possession.  

Wouldn't missed front ends of 1 and 1 's bring us down below 1 pt per possession? 

[glazedandconfused]

5 minutes ago, slufanskip said:

Wouldn't missed front ends of 1 and 1 's bring us down below 1 pt per possession? 

Yes but a very minimal amount.

Rough math: We avg 57% from the FT line. That 1.14 Pts per possession if we are shooting 2 FT.

At most we have 6 1& 1s per game. Shooting 57% on those gets you an average of .895 Pts per possession after accounting for missed front ends. 

We average about 32 FTA per game. Not factoring in and-1s, We take about 12 sets of 2 FTs and 6 1&1s.

(12 trips to line with 2 FT*1.14pts per possession) + (6 1&1s *.895) / 18 Total possessions that end with FTs = 1.06 Pts per Possession.

 

This is probably a conservative estimate as we aren't likely to have 6 1 & 1s if one of the 7-9 team fouls is a shooting foul.

 

[RUBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Pistol said:

I tend to agree. Bully ball all the way in this one. Go at the rim, grab offensive boards. Don't foul them.

@The Wiz frames it more in terms of FTs made than FT%. It doesn't matter if we shoot 55% if we're getting to the line twice as much as Davidson. And they don't go to the line much at all, so we certainly have a chance to do so if we bully them.

We basically know who we are at this point. We don't hit FTs or even attempt 3-pointers. We have to rebound everything, finish, defend hard and cleanly, protect the ball, and force turnovers. It's rare we do all of those in a single game but even if we just do most of those things well, we should be all right.

We also know this team has historically not been the strongest road performer since joining the A10 and is good for a couple trainwreck conference road games a season (St. Joe's last season, for example). I'm hoping Duquesne was our one this season, even if we don't go undefeated in the rest of them.

Unfortunately for us, a lot of this is going to be on how the refs call the game.  The contrasting styles of play (with Davidson being a jump shooting team who doesn't draw a lot of fouls and us being a pound it inside team who teams aren't afraid to foul because we're such poor FT shooters) means that there should be a large discrepancy in fouls and FT attempts especially if we're playing well.  However, it seems like some refs don't like having a large foul/FT discrepancy.  If the refs decide to call us for a ton of ticky-tack stuff to even fouls out, then we could be in trouble.

[Spoon-Balls]

33 minutes ago, Matty Light said:

We have to defend the 3 against this team.  That should be objective #1 with a bullet.  It's how they beat us in the past and it's amazing we haven't lost some games where we left a lot of 3-pt shots wide open.  We've been fortunate that many of those shots have been missed.  I think we need to relax the pressure traps and double teams in the paint.  Let's D them straight up. Make them get all the way to the bucket.  If we force the game into the half court and we don't run under screens like the last two seasons, we should be able to smoke these fools.

Agreed. Let them try to beat our bigs in the paint, but I'll be absolutely sickened if they start draining 6 wide open threes in a row like Dayton did the other night. 

[wgstl]

I know its not much of a difference, but I want to know what our FT% would look like if put back rebounds cancelled out the attempts. 

[slufanskip]

1 hour ago, glazedandconfused said:

Yes but a very minimal amount.

Rough math: We avg 57% from the FT line. That 1.14 Pts per possession if we are shooting 2 FT.

At most we have 6 1& 1s per game. Shooting 57% on those gets you an average of .895 Pts per possession after accounting for missed front ends. 

We average about 32 FTA per game. Not factoring in and-1s, We take about 12 sets of 2 FTs and 6 1&1s.

(12 trips to line with 2 FT*1.14pts per possession) + (6 1&1s *.895) / 18 Total possessions that end with FTs = 1.06 Pts per Possession.

 

This is probably a conservative estimate as we aren't likely to have 6 1 & 1s if one of the 7-9 team fouls is a shooting foul.

 

too much math for me lol. Thanks

[NH]

22 minutes ago, slufanskip said:

too much math for me lol. Thanks

Ignoring all of the math, the point is that when anyone besides French goes to the free throw line it is a productive play for the Billikens. I would think this a perfect example of the "eye-test" crowd and the "analytics" crowd being on the same page, in that they think being aggressive, drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line is a good thing. Would be curious if you disagree.

[slufanskip]

18 minutes ago, NH said:

Ignoring all of the math, the point is that when anyone besides French goes to the free throw line it is a productive play for the Billikens. I would think this a perfect example of the "eye-test" crowd and the "analytics" crowd being on the same page, in that they think being aggressive, drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line is a good thing. Would be curious if you disagree.

I agree completely. Not only does ( thanks to the smart math posters Glazed) it give us more efficient offense, it also frequently puts opponents on the bench with foul trouble and gets us closer to shooting 2 when Perkins, Jacobs, etc ... go to the line. 

[bauman]

5 hours ago, Taj79 said:

Personnel:  Davidson is a two-man team in Grady and JAG.  Brajkovic has either regressed or been outed as a soft Euro-big.  You can’t allow him to receive the ball low or he will try to bodily move you.  Bates Jones is useless.  Ditto Brodie-Yokum or whatever his name is.  Their front line is pitiful.

Carter Collins is having a great year.  You can’t go to sleep on him.  Grady and JAG are nowhere near last year but we all know what they can do.  Mike Jones has really ranked the last few games and I don’t count Fordham as a real team.  Hyungjung Kim is a supposed South Korean star but tends to run streaky.  Ditto MJones and since this is at Belk we have to guard all well.  
 

The outcome will rest on keeping both Grady and JAF mundane and pedestrian while not letting Collins carry on nor have any of the other deadbeats find themselves tonight.

 

Richmond destroyed them at their place.  We beat Richmond at their place.  Play that game and we win.  Come out unprepared and it could go south fast.

The game is not tonight, it's tomorrow

[RUBillsFan]

22 minutes ago, NH said:

Ignoring all of the math, the point is that when anyone besides French goes to the free throw line it is a productive play for the Billikens. I would think this a perfect example of the "eye-test" crowd and the "analytics" crowd being on the same page, in that they think being aggressive, drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line is a good thing. Would be curious if you disagree.

I don't know about eye-test and analytics, but to me more FTs bring the watch-ability of a game wayyyy down.  FTs take a lot of time and there is very little action.  They disrupt the rhythm of the game.  I understand they are a necessary part of the game.  I also like the Bills to win so I'm all for us shooting more FTs because of what you and Glazed have shown along with the ancillary benefits that Skip pointed out.  However, it pains me from a watch-ability standpoint that analytics are driving strategy and guys are more actively seeking out fouls instead of them happening as a natural part of the game.

Don't get me wrong, this isn't nearly as bad of a problem in college as it is in the NBA.  James Harden is the poster child for foul seeking in the NBA.  He's extremely skilled at it and has honed his ability to draw fouls very well.  It is admirable from a scoring efficiency perspective, but I hate him for it because I do not find it aesthetically pleasing.  I'm not sure how you can curtail the problem either unless you drastically change the rules.

[bauman]

3 hours ago, NH said:

I get the sense that Davidson is the polar opposite of SLU. I think we are a better team, but there is also a very feasible scenario in which they hit jump shots, we don't, and they're able to build a sizable advantage. I'd like to see us be really aggressive in driving the ball and getting to the free throw line. 

Agree as long as those going to the FT line are named Perkins, Hargrove, Jacobs or Collins.

[wgstl]

crazy to me Kenpom has us closing tomorrow. 

 

I know KP has been high on them for whatever reason, but still.

 

 

[juniorbill76]

21 minutes ago, wgstl said:

crazy to me Kenpom has us closing tomorrow. 

 

I know KP has been high on them for whatever reason, but still.

 

 

Used to be most any road win in the A-10 was considered difficult. Maybe the numbers guys can let us know how this year has gone in that respect.