The Bills and Davidson..The winner is.....

[The Wiz]

Before we get to the headline...a disappointing loss for The Bills at Dayton but nonetheless a great basketball game. 13th rated Dayton trailing in the final second of OT throws up a prayer and with only 1 chance in 3 of making it, they sink it for the win.  That is as close to winning a game as you can get without winning it. The Bills actually outplayed them most of the game....No shame here...If you need more post game analysis, see the Dayton spread thread post game post.

On to Davidson...so what is with the headline??  I didn't want to declare a winner for this game in the headline  as I know there are some people on the board who only read the headline. This is  one of the most difficult games to handicap. On the surface both teams are a B...a close game...teams are very even with the spread showing Dav by 3,  taking the game on the home field advantage. But wait,  there is more....The Bills are trending at B+ while the Wildcats are fading  at C....This sets up a different spread  which shows Bills by 5.  Thus , the reason  there is no winner listed in the headline.  I think most handicappers will be going with Dav by 3....For those that like to wager , there may be an opportunity here...

To see what is going on  , let's start with the injury report before the report card.

Injury report...

Czerapowitz...1/10/20...Out indefinitely...Hip injury

Frampton........1/8/20...out for the season...personal leave of absence

Prichett...1/16/20...out for the season...after a knee scope, he will likely miss the rest of the season

Thatch...1/8/20....out indefinitely...no change

Now let's look at the report card....

..............................SLU...........................Dav.................................................................SLU...............................Dav

................................................OFF.....................................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................C+...............................C-................................................................B......................................C+

FG%.........................C+...............................C+............................................................ ..B+.....................................D

3Pt%........................D+..............................B--................................................................D+......................................C-

FT%.........................F-. 2nd worst ITN.......A... ...............................................................................................

Reb.........................A..................................F.................................................................C.......................................B

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF rebs = opp reb

 Bills  Offensive reb....A+....9th  ITN....up

Change from last game (UP means improvement ...Down means worse)....UP ....no change.......... DOWN......3P def

Top 100 ITN

Stls....Goodwin ...31st.....down

Assts...Y Collins....38th.....down

Rebs...Goodwin..15th.....French...16th.....unchanged and up

Off Reb....French ...16th...Goodwin...60th

Def reb...Goodwin ...18th...French...42nd 

Blks.....French....16th...unchanged

FT%...C  Collins...49th

Remember, this report card is based on a full season and doesn't fully reflect the fading situation of Dav.

WWN2D2W....Stop Grady...hold him to 12 pts....Jones is their 3pt guy...hold him to 35%......we are one of the best rebounding teams...they are one of the worst...dominate the boards by double figures....Match them in TOs...stay around 11....Hold them to 60 pts.  The closer to 60,  the better are chances of winning....Stay away from fouling them...especially C Collins..88.4%...and Lee 86.7%.

Bottom line...We should take this game...but this is far from a gimme...Dav may be down but they are not out...they have just enough life left to rise up and swat us down....We need to not make unforced errors .  Dav doesn't TO the ball much ...so neither can we. We need to draw fouls to get our FTA up and neutralize their FT advantage....we miss a lot but we don't miss them all....We need to beat them on FTM.  Did I mention we need to dominate the boards...if the rebs are close then that is a bad sign. They have a weak defense...let's take advantage of that. This game is our game to win...Let's get back on the winning track.

[Ballingmeanthegradesfallin]

Dayton won on the road against us.

[billiken_roy]

gundmundson was fantastic yesterday.   we do not match up well with him or grady imo.    

[The Wiz]

2 hours ago, billiken_roy said:

gundmundson was fantastic yesterday.   we do not match up well with him or grady imo.    

No question about it ...Gund had a great game...in fact their top 3 had a great game...Gud, M Jones and C Collins had a slash of 64/63/100....18-28/ 10-18/ 1-1.....an extraordinary line and while the FTs were a  small sample size the team shot 89% from the charity stripe...8-9.  This is what I meant when I said "they were fading but they can rise up and swat you down."...They took a whopping thirty  3 pt shots against Fordham...And while our 3 pt defense hasn't been great this year , it has gotten better...with some flashes of goodness. This will be a good test of that 3D. 

Back to your point....I am projecting we hold Gud to 10pts. and Dav to 33% from 3....we need for them to play our game...not vice versa.

[slu72]

Another game where Fred's absence could bite us. Although, JGood should be a good matchup for Godmundson and Jacobs should be able to cover Grady. 

[MichaelC]

8 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

No question about it ...Gund had a great game...in fact their top 3 had a great game...Gud, M Jones and C Collins had a slash of 64/63/100....18-28/ 10-18/ 1-1.....an extraordinary line and while the FTs were a  small sample size the team shot 89% from the charity stripe...8-9.  This is what I meant when I said "they were fading but they can rise up and swat you down."...They took a whopping thirty  3 pt shots against Fordham...And while our 3 pt defense hasn't been great this year , it has gotten better...with some flashes of goodness. This will be a good test of that 3D. 

Back to your point....I am projecting we hold Gud to 10pts. and Dav to 33% from 3....we need for them to play our game...not vice versa.

They were very good offensively but their interior and post defense was atrocious, Bell and French should both be able to dominate but to your point regarding 3pt defense I'm not sure how much Bell will be able to play since their bigs shoot a lot of 3s. 

Davidson also played some zone which they will probably throw at us, we will need to attack the middle of that zone and not settle for jacking up 3s. 

[billikenfan05]

3 hours ago, billiken_roy said:

gundmundson was fantastic yesterday.   we do not match up well with him or grady imo.    

Davidson stinks, they were good against Fordham. They don’t have anyone that can handle French/Bell.

[bauman]

A couple of you have mentioned that Davidson has no one to match up with HF.  I see that as both a good and a bad thing.  Yes he played a great game against UD on the boards.  17 rebounds were outstanding, he was like a man against boys, including Toppin, but in games like that he can also hurt us in two ways.  He, and JG for that matter, tend to be so focused on scoring that he (they) don't see, or look for,  teammates open for shots.  While their aggressiveness translates into many points and boards, it also costs us in missed opportunities for wide open shots by Billikens not named French or Goodwin.  These missed opportunities are compounded when he and JG are fouled and we all know what that means.  One point, at best !  Let's face it guys and gals,  HF and JG have proven what they are from the free throw line so there is no sense complaining about it.  It is what it is, a combined less than 50%, and it's not going to improve at this point in the season.  What TF needs to do is find a way to minimize the impact of that weakness.

If Davidson doubles or employs a "hack a HF" strategy, I hope we see the ball passed out to other open Bills.  At some point HF needs to consider an assist as just, if not more, important to the teams' success as fighting off a double team and going to the line for a possible one point. 

Yes, as I said above, HF played a GREAT game against UD and many other teams this year, and yes we would not have been leading UD through most of the game without him leading the charge, but when he goes into his "I'm going to shoot no matter what" mode, as in the last part of the Dayton game, it can produce the same outcome as we just witnessed.   Davidson probably has the best coach in the A 10 and my fear is that we wind up shooting less than 50% from the line based on his gameplan.  While that might work for us, depending on other facets of the game, it could be a killer if they light it up from beyond the arc.  Kind of a repeat of the final 6 minutes of Friday's game.

All that being said, I see a road win as the team fights off the discouragement from a tough loss.

GO BILLS !

UNRELATED FOOTNOTE:  Watching the replay of the UD game, Weaver was taken out of the game in the final minute of the first half and was talked to by our assistant coach.  TW was obviously mad as HF was sitting next to him on the bench and put his arm around him both on the bench and while walking off the court.  Whatever was said to Weaver, we was not happy.  It seems clear that he was not injured.  I hope he recovers and becomes a big part of the team the rest of the year.  We need his 3 pt shooting.

[RUBillsFan]

9 minutes ago, bauman said:

UNRELATED FOOTNOTE:  Watching the replay of the UD game, Weaver was taken out of the game in the final minute of the first half and was talked to by our assistant coach.  TW was obviously mad as HF was sitting next to him on the bench and put his arm around him both on the bench and while walking off the court.  Whatever was said to Weaver, we was not happy.  It seems clear that he was not injured.  I hope he recovers and becomes a big part of the team the rest of the year.  We need his 3 pt shooting.

Just a casual observation that may or may not hold any weight.  I agree that we need Weaver's 3 pt shooting, so I hope he's able to fix whatever flaws are holding him back from playing time.  It seems to me that Weaver makes a lot of concentration / effort mistakes on defense.  For example, he may go underneath screens instead of fighting through them and his man then nails an open 3 or he gets beat backdoor.  I think he's one of our quickest players and shouldn't have any trouble staying with his man which is why I call these concentration / effort mistakes.

[3star_recruit]

6 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said:

Just a casual observation that may or may not hold any weight.  I agree that we need Weaver's 3 pt shooting, so I hope he's able to fix whatever flaws are holding him back from playing time.  It seems to me that Weaver makes a lot of concentration / effort mistakes on defense.  For example, he may go underneath screens instead of fighting through them and his man then nails an open 3 or he gets beat backdoor.  I think he's one of our quickest players and shouldn't have any trouble staying with his man which is why I call these concentration / effort mistakes.

There aren't necessarily any flaws holding Weaver back.  He is what he is -- an above average defender and a spot up jump shooter.  He's been a victim of circumstances.  Yuri played his best game of the season against Richmond and Dayton's big guards were simply a bad matchup for a  5'10 guard with short arms.  They could just shoot over the top of him and make it really difficult for him to get off a shot at the other end.

Weaver got 13 and 14 minutes respectively, against GW and UMass.  That's about the right number of minutes for a three-point specialist, IMO.  If he comes out hot from three, he can easily get 20 minutes.

[Cowboy]

43 minutes ago, bauman said:

A couple of you have mentioned that Davidson has no one to match up with HF.  I see that as both a good and a bad thing.  Yes he played a great game against UD on the boards.  17 rebounds were outstanding, he was like a man against boys, including Toppin, but in games like that he can also hurt us in two ways.  He, and JG for that matter, tend to be so focused on scoring that he (they) don't see, or look for,  teammates open for shots.  While their aggressiveness translates into many points and boards, it also costs us in missed opportunities for wide open shots by Billikens not named French or Goodwin.  These missed opportunities are compounded when he and JG are fouled and we all know what that means.  One point, at best !  Let's face it guys and gals,  HF and JG have proven what they are from the free throw line so there is no sense complaining about it.  It is what it is, a combined less than 50%, and it's not going to improve at this point in the season.  What TF needs to do is find a way to minimize the impact of that weakness.

If Davidson doubles or employs a "hack a HF" strategy, I hope we see the ball passed out to other open Bills.  At some point HF needs to consider an assist as just, if not more, important to the teams' success as fighting off a double team and going to the line for a possible one point. 

Yes, as I said above, HF played a GREAT game against UD and many other teams this year, and yes we would not have been leading UD through most of the game without him leading the charge, but when he goes into his "I'm going to shoot no matter what" mode, as in the last part of the Dayton game, it can produce the same outcome as we just witnessed.   Davidson probably has the best coach in the A 10 and my fear is that we wind up shooting less than 50% from the line based on his gameplan.  While that might work for us, depending on other facets of the game, it could be a killer if they light it up from beyond the arc.  Kind of a repeat of the final 6 minutes of Friday's game.

All that being said, I see a road win as the team fights off the discouragement from a tough loss.

GO BILLS !

UNRELATED FOOTNOTE:  Watching the replay of the UD game, Weaver was taken out of the game in the final minute of the first half and was talked to by our assistant coach.  TW was obviously mad as HF was sitting next to him on the bench and put his arm around him both on the bench and while walking off the court.  Whatever was said to Weaver, we was not happy.  It seems clear that he was not injured.  I hope he recovers and becomes a big part of the team the rest of the year.  We need his 3 pt shooting.

-some good stuff in here and with HAS passing out of double and triple teams, it is not all on him as there needs to be coaching as to where that pass is to go and the other player has to get to that spot, whether that be JBJ or guards/wings

-does Dav have the depth to run Hack a HAS for a big a number of fouls? if I were a coach I would try to figure out a way to have this in my plans when playing us

 

[slusam]

1 hour ago, bauman said:

A couple of you have mentioned that Davidson has no one to match up with HF.  I see that as both a good and a bad thing.  Yes he played a great game against UD on the boards.  17 rebounds were outstanding, he was like a man against boys, including Toppin, but in games like that he can also hurt us in two ways.  He, and JG for that matter, tend to be so focused on scoring that he (they) don't see, or look for,  teammates open for shots.  While their aggressiveness translates into many points and boards, it also costs us in missed opportunities for wide open shots by Billikens not named French or Goodwin.  These missed opportunities are compounded when he and JG are fouled and we all know what that means.  One point, at best !  Let's face it guys and gals,  HF and JG have proven what they are from the free throw line so there is no sense complaining about it.  It is what it is, a combined less than 50%, and it's not going to improve at this point in the season.  What TF needs to do is find a way to minimize the impact of that weakness.

If Davidson doubles or employs a "hack a HF" strategy, I hope we see the ball passed out to other open Bills.  At some point HF needs to consider an assist as just, if not more, important to the teams' success as fighting off a double team and going to the line for a possible one point. 

Yes, as I said above, HF played a GREAT game against UD and many other teams this year, and yes we would not have been leading UD through most of the game without him leading the charge, but when he goes into his "I'm going to shoot no matter what" mode, as in the last part of the Dayton game, it can produce the same outcome as we just witnessed.   Davidson probably has the best coach in the A 10 and my fear is that we wind up shooting less than 50% from the line based on his gameplan.  While that might work for us, depending on other facets of the game, it could be a killer if they light it up from beyond the arc.  Kind of a repeat of the final 6 minutes of Friday's game.

All that being said, I see a road win as the team fights off the discouragement from a tough loss.

GO BILLS !

UNRELATED FOOTNOTE:  Watching the replay of the UD game, Weaver was taken out of the game in the final minute of the first half and was talked to by our assistant coach.  TW was obviously mad as HF was sitting next to him on the bench and put his arm around him both on the bench and while walking off the court.  Whatever was said to Weaver, we was not happy.  It seems clear that he was not injured.  I hope he recovers and becomes a big part of the team the rest of the year.  We need his 3 pt shooting.

According to Pistols records list Goodwin is on pace to finish in the top 10 for assists for Juniors. French gets double teamed everytime he has the ball and passes out of the double teams numerous times a game.

[Matty Light]

I too saw the Weaver reaction at the half.  I believe he was in the game to close out the half but the sequence when he was in JG or HF got the first pass and took questionable shots.  Weaver never even touched the ball.  I don't know who he was yelling at but it felt like it one of the Billiken coaches or players.  He did not return to the game afterward.  He is in the game to shoot 3s, but his presence does nothing if he doesn't even touch the ball.  I get why he was so mad, but you can't go off like that in the home arena.  Run into the locker room and air your grievance there.

[billikenbill]

44 minutes ago, Matty Light said:

I too saw the Weaver reaction at the half.  I believe he was in the game to close out the half but the sequence when he was in JG or HF got the first pass and took questionable shots.  Weaver never even touched the ball.  I don't know who he was yelling at but it felt like it one of the Billiken coaches or players.  He did not return to the game afterward.  He is in the game to shoot 3s, but his presence does nothing if he doesn't even touch the ball.  I get why he was so mad, but you can't go off like that in the home arena.  Run into the locker room and air your grievance there.

My guess then is he’ll get the chance to see what he can do against Davidson and, if his teammates are as close-knit a group as they’re said to be, they’ll look to get him some shots. This team needs him to get hot from the arc.

[The Wiz]

I noticed,  even though Dayton was just barely able to eke out a win in OT against us ...it was good for moving up 6 places in the standings to 7th place in the AP Poll....In other news, S Hall moved from 18th to 10th and Aub dropped from 4th to 16th.   SH  in my ranking and grades is now A+ (6th) & A+ (2nd)...Day is now...A+ ((15th)  & A+ (6th)... & Aub  at A+(16th ) &  A- . The first grade and ranking is the  overall and the 2nd G &R  is the trending line.    The Bills SOS is now B-.

[slufanskip]

How many times have we played 3 teams ranked I n the top 20 during the regular season? 

[brianstl]

We played five games against top 25 in the regular season in 12-13

[JohnnyJumpUp]

16 hours ago, billikenbill said:

My guess then is he’ll get the chance to see what he can do against Davidson and, if his teammates are as close-knit a group as they’re said to be, they’ll look to get him some shots. This team needs him to get hot from the arc.

Has anyone heard why his right leg was wrapped up for the second half? Was it something minor or something that could keep him from playing a few games?

[wgstl]

1 hour ago, brianstl said:

We played five games against top 25 in the regular season in 12-13

wasnt Butler ranked for most if not all 3 of those matchups?

[Taj79]

Personnel:  Davidson is a two-man team in Grady and JAG.  Brajkovic has either regressed or been outed as a soft Euro-big.  You can’t allow him to receive the ball low or he will try to bodily move you.  Bates Jones is useless.  Ditto Brodie-Yokum or whatever his name is.  Their front line is pitiful.

Carter Collins is having a great year.  You can’t go to sleep on him.  Grady and JAG are nowhere near last year but we all know what they can do.  Mike Jones has really ranked the last few games and I don’t count Fordham as a real team.  Hyungjung Kim is a supposed South Korean star but tends to run streaky.  Ditto MJones and since this is at Belk we have to guard all well.  
 

The outcome will rest on keeping both Grady and JAF mundane and pedestrian while not letting Collins carry on nor have any of the other deadbeats find themselves tonight.

 

Richmond destroyed them at their place.  We beat Richmond at their place.  Play that game and we win.  Come out unprepared and it could go south fast.

[wgstl]

we should win easily, but this cant mean Grady and JAG go crazy at home.  

[Pistol]

Coming into this season, I had Davidson as the #2 team to VCU in conference (with Dayton third). I thought they were more or less the same as last year - a little soft up front and without any depth at all, but with enough scoring to overcome those shortcomings if they stayed healthy. Obviously things have not broken that way for them this season.

With Luke Frampton still on personal leave of absence for an indefinite amount of time, they go about 7 deep, with a drop-off after the top 4. As Taj says, JAG and Grady are everything and IMO haven't developed as expected, especially in Grady's case. I don't think Brajkovic has been exposed - he's a Euro big with a Euro big style - but he certainly has not progressed as he should. I actually think Lee is a solid freshman. He just happens to be 6-7 and under 200 lbs. and the closest thing they have to another big in the starting lineup. Bates Jones and Nelson Boachie-Yiadom split minutes (14.5 MPG and 8.8 MPG, respectively) and are both about 6-8, 200.

They don't play a particularly fast pace, don't turn it over much at all (15th overall handling the ball), and shoot a large proportion of their FGA from outside. They don't get to the line much but shoot .770 when they do, good for 19th in the country. They're a methodical jump shooting team. The flipside of this is that they tend to succeed in forcing their pace - teams don't get as many FGA as usual against them, they don't force many turnovers, and don't foul much. They're a terrible rebounding team but there just aren't many rebounds to be had in a typical Davidson game - both teams tend to be relatively efficient in a slower game. They don't give up much on the glass. Kinda like it was in the Soderberg and early Majerus eras.

We have not been strong against Davidson since they joined the A10 and have yet to win at their place. Last season, we lost the heartbreaker at home and pounded them in the A10 Tournament. We lost at Davidson the year before and they ended our season in the conference tournament. We lost the prior year at SLU but won the year before that (2015-2016) in a baffling 96-87 game in a season that went 11-21 under Crews. And the first conference game at their place was an embarrassing blowout. So that's 2-5 all time, all since they've joined the league, 1-2 at home, 1-1 neutral, and 0-2 on the road.

[Pistol]

Bottom line is we need this game. We have 3 losses to top-20 NET teams and a tough conference road loss to a team ranked right next to us in the NET. Davidson at 110 would not be a brutal, season-ending loss but it puts our margin on the razor's edge and we'd need to be nearly perfect the rest of the way.

This is also a chance to really stratify the league into halves, with SLU going in at 3-2 and Davidson at 2-3 and everyone looking pretty much like they're going to stay in their half (Dayton, VCU, Duquesne, URI, Bonaventure, and Richmond as the other top-half teams).

I think it's also meaningful to win somewhere you've never won before, not to mention bounce back from such a gut-wrenching loss. Lastly, grabbing a tricky road win before the easiest remaining three game stretch (vs. Fordham, @La Salle, @St. Joe's) is key to building momentum before our return games against Duquesne and Dayton.

[RiseAndGrind]

Just now, Pistol said:

Bottom line is we need this game. We have 3 losses to top-20 NET teams and a tough conference road loss to a team ranked right next to us in the NET. Davidson at 110 would not be a brutal, season-ending loss but it puts our margin on the razor's edge and we'd need to be nearly perfect the rest of the way.

This is also a chance to really stratify the league into halves, with SLU going in at 3-2 and Davidson at 2-3 and everyone looking pretty much like they're going to stay in their half (Dayton, VCU, Duquesne, URI, Bonaventure, and Richmond as the other top-half teams).

I think it's also meaningful to win somewhere you've never won before, not to mention bounce back from such a gut-wrenching loss. Lastly, grabbing a tricky road win before the easiest remaining three game stretch (vs. Fordham, @La Salle, @St. Joe's) is key to building momentum before our return games against Duquesne and Dayton.

The game tomorrow will tell the rest of the season, imho

[NH]

I get the sense that Davidson is the polar opposite of SLU. I think we are a better team, but there is also a very feasible scenario in which they hit jump shots, we don't, and they're able to build a sizable advantage. I'd like to see us be really aggressive in driving the ball and getting to the free throw line.