Dayton over The Bills by 5

[cheeseman]

2 minutes ago, bills10 said:

I think on Instagram it said 2,000 student tickets

Wasn't that the reason they gave the tix out on Thursday so the school would know how many they could sell?

[moytoy12]

38 minutes ago, bills10 said:

I think on Instagram it said 2,000 student tickets

Now I see the post on IG that says 2,000. Thought I saw something on twitter that said 1,000.  Either way, get Chaifetz rocking students!  

[Quality Is Job 1]

16 hours ago, SLU_Nick said:

This is weak.  That place needs to be loud for the Bills.  I really hope people don’t bail.

back on topic.  I just bet the Bills +7.5 bc I couldn’t resist.  I think my lifetime record betting my team is 1-7 . So I’m due.

The 1 W was an angry/drunken “everything in my wallet” bet in Vegas last March on SLU to cover +2 2nd half against VA tech.  

So, you won the bet, even though the Bills lost the game?  The Flyers would have had to win by 8 or more for you to lose the bet, right?

[The Wiz]

While it was disappointing to lose the game, it still was a great game....I am sure ESPN was very happy with the way the game played out....not to mention , many 1st time Bills fans at the game who may be back as a result of the excitement and high energy of the game.

So let's take a look at what happened....

From the original post of this thread....

the trend line shows this as a close game...that falls in line with our style of play...we play to the competition...which is a good thing in this case...avoid TOs...stay around 11....To me this was the major fail in the game....TO diff was 5 in favor of Day....worth 10 pts...in addition  we had 17 TOs ...way too many....usually 16+ spells doom.

Let's look at the slashes....SLU...45/33/54...Day....45/36/ 68...and many people will go...aha...there it is...the FT shooting...but not really...I have pointed out in a number of threads the FT shooting does not hurt us because we get more shots than the other team...in this case, we out shot them at the charity line....FTM...20-13...+7 for the Bills.... The doubters say...a few more FTM and we win...We average in the mid 50s in FTs...it is what it is....tonight we shot 54%...pretty much on target.   ...Well if it wasn't FTs, what was it?...FG% matched...both at 45%...which btw Day is the #1 shooting team ITN at around 53%...no small feat to hold them to 45%....in the end the real difference in the slash was the 3P shooting...they made 1 extra shot which put them at 36%... with out that extra shot the 3pt shooting matches up too...Care to take a guess when that 3P shot was made?

Let's look at the rest of WWN2D2W....

Stop the Top...easier said then done...however, we don't need to shut him down...just slow him down a bit...if this is a close game,  trimming just a few pts from his scoring could be a difference maker....Hold Toppin to 15 pts and under 50% shooting...We pretty much held him in check...44% vs his usual over 60%...adjusting the 15 pts for OT  becomes 17pts...he had 20pts ...good enough considering he was shooting 17% below average.

Win the rebound battle by 6... We won it by 12...Dayton's largest deficit of the season....The stat that had us winning most of the game.

Stop Watson from the arc ...he is a great 3pt shooter when left alone...let's bother him and keep him under 40%....check...we held him to 40%

Like the Rich game we need to contain their offense ...slow things down...Hold them to 52 shots...their slash...46/31/70....Hold them to 67 pts ...the lower their score the better chance we have to win...We almost did this...had we held them to 67 we would have won in regulation...adjusting for OT,  we needed to  hold them to 75...which again would have been a win...but when you almost hold them ...you almost win...well at least the numbers were right.

And finally the Bills need to make some shots...at least four 3PM...slash...48/33/60...we only made 2 but we did shoot 33%...so we will call that a draw...of course if we make the slash ..we win...we got very close to the slash...and of course , we got very close to a win.

Bottom line.....With 2 tenths of a second left in OT we were beating  the 13 ranked team ITN (#1 shooting team ITN) and they took a long desperation 3 ...they had  1 chance in 3  of winning the game at that point and they did....This is as close to winning a game as you can come without actually winning it....I will leave you again  with the quote from the Bottom line above...Bottom line...Most odds makers will give this game to Dayton by 6...However the trend line shows this as a close game...that falls in line with our style of play...we play to the competition...which is a good thing in this case...And we did play to the competition tonight ...we played like the 13th team ITN...and that is a good thing

 

[almaman]

I get that if they made one less shot than we from 3 we would have same 3% but they would still have 24 points from 3 compared to our 6 points.

hard to overcome that as is our FT woes. Amazing really. 6-2 since losing GJ despite these 2 areas of complete failure.

[Basketbill]

This Team is a work in progress as most teams are.  However this team is in particular is be cause of all the new players the Ford has needed to incorporate.  As tough a loss as this was the take away for me is they are improving. TF teams since he has been at SLU have had rising trend lines even with his worst team.  This game was close enough for me to think we will have a chance at Dayton, and we will beat VCU at home Rhody on the road...to be clear a tough loss, feel this pain and commit to improve!