The Wiz Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 HNY to all and welcome to the 1st A-10 conference season in the roaring 20s...Hopefully, The Bills will come in like a lion. This is my 3rd forecast of the year ....Round 1 was preseason and based on a Bayesian predictive model....the 2nd round came out after all teams in the A-10 had at least 8 games and is done with real data. Rounds 1 &2 have a variance of 2 notches...i.e. a B could vary from C+ to A-. ...In the 3rd round the variance is only 1 notch ...ie a B team will vary from B- to B+...the exception in round 3 is when the trend line is greater or lesser than the normal 1 notch variance....i.e. The Bills are at B, normal variance at this point is B- to B+, but because the trend line is A- that becomes the new top therefore The Bills range going forward is B- to A-...conversely Duq also has a B but they are trending down to C....their range is C to B+.. Now , let's look at the data ....past and present Round 1 The Wiz's Preseason Forecast 2019-2020 By The Wiz, November 3 in Billikens.com Main Board A-10 Dav........................B+......... NCAA 35% or NIT 80% VCU.......................B+.......... NCAA 35% or NIT 80% Day..........................B............NIT 50% RI.............................B............NIT...50% St. B.........................B............NIT...50% Rich.........................B- SLU..........................B- Duq.........................C+ GM..........................C+ LaS.........................C UMass....................C GW...........................C- St. J..........................C- Ford...........................D Round 2 The Wiz's A-10 Forecast with Real Data By The Wiz, December 10 in Billikens.com Main Board .................................Overall......................Trending..................................................SOS.....................................................Curr record Day..............................A..................................A+.......................................................B...............NCAA....................................7-1 VCU..............................A-................................B+.......................................................D+............NCAA......................................7-2 Duq..............................B+...............................B+........................................................F..............NIT............................................8-0 Rich.............................B+................................A-.........................................................D+...........NIT...........................................8-1 SLU..............................B..................................A-.........................................................D..............67% NIT...................................8-1 Dav..............................B...................................B-........................................................A-..............67% NIT..................................4-5 RI..................................B................................B+..........................................................B+..............67% NIT.................................6-3 LaS...............................B-................................B...........................................................B+.............................................................5-3 GM...............................C+................................B+..........................................................F+...........................................................10-1 St. B.............................C+.................................B............................................................D+............................................................5-4 UMass.........................C...................................D+..........................................................C...............................................................5-5 Ford.............................D+.................................C-............................................................F-....easiest sched ITN...........................5-3 St. J.............................D+..................................F+.............................................................B.............................................................2-8 GW...............................D.....................................C.............................................................F..............................................................5-5 Round 3 .................................Overall......................Trending..................................................SOS.....................................................Curr record Day..............................A.................................A+..........................................................B-.......NCAA bid......................................11-2 VCU.............................B+...............................A-...........................................................C-....35% NCAA...85% NIT......................10-3 Dav...............................B+...............................B-..........................................................A-.......50% NIT..........................................6-6 SLU..............................B..................................A-.........................................................C-........15% NCAA...50% NIT....................11-2 RI.................................B..................................B+........................................................B+.........50% NIT.........................................8-3 Rich..............................B..................................B-........................................................C+........20%NIT..........................................10-3 Duq..............................B...................................C..........................................................F+......15% NIT.........................................10-2 St. B.............................B-..................................B-.........................................................C-.......10 % NIT..........................................8-5 GM...............................C+.................................B..........................................................F+.......10% NIT..........................................11-2 LaS...............................C+................................B...........................................................D-........10% NIT..........................................9-3 UMass..........................C..................................D+.........................................................B-...............................................................6-7 St. J..............................D+................................D+.........................................................B+..............................................................3-9 GW.................................D.................................C-...........................................................F-....14th easiest ITN...............................6-7 Ford...............................D.................................D-...........................................................F-...2nd easiest ITN...................................6-6 Teams with the greatest chance to exceed the variance on the upside SLU....the difference could mean an NCAA bid GM & LaS....the difference could mean an outside chance at an NIT bid GW....the difference could make them a spoiler Teams with the greatest chance to exceed on the downside Dav...the difference could knock them out of a decent chance to make the NIT Duq....the difference could wipe out their small chance to make the NIT UMass....the difference could turn a 500 season into a bad one Finally ...one last point...How could a team ( Fordham ) with the 2nd easiest schedule in D1 be only 6-6 at this point...quite an accomplishment...I guess that is why even though they are a D team they are still trending down . Bottom line ....Could be a promising year for The Bills if they continue to improve and play to their potential ( A- ) Go Bills. billikens747, AGB91, drkelsey55 and 4 others like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Wiz, I love this, you found a way to add the tails of the distribution curve to the 2 SD block covering the majority of possible outcomes by incorporating the trend. I fully agree with one caveat, the trend may not be limited by a semi-arbitrary estimated (educated guess based) barrier, for example an A- top. I think you are trying to estimate at what level the "improvement" trend plateau will arrive and the improvement curve will flatten. What I am saying (as an academic exercise if you wish) is that for a new team made out largely of "newbies" and freshmen with a few upperclassmen actively playing, the improvement and team cohesion level may, just may, continue beyond the top level you have estimated. What I am saying is that, given our performance trend as a team this year I think it is premature to place a top of any kind in this trend. Again, even if your estimated top level achievable this season is most likely to prove true (because it covers the vast majority of potential outcomes available), there is still an upper portion of the distribution curve beyond A- which is not covered by this estimate. At what level will we plateau this year? At this time in the season, I think the improving trend is correct and factual, but how high it will go is not predictable given the "newbie" composition of our team. What do I mean by few upperclassmen or a "newbie" team? This is simple, only Goodwin and French have been actively and consistently playing this season. Thatch has had his health problems and is not yet playing. Jacobs and Hankton did not play much at all last season which makes them de facto freshmen or "freshmen like" for this season (and, as we have seen, Hankton is a bit of a disappointment in the way he is playing). Perkins was a JUCO last season and had to get to know how to play in D1 which is new to him. Finally Weaver has had experience in D1 but in a totally different environment and (like Perkins) had to learn to fit our style of play and the types of opponents we play. The learning curve for both Perkins and Weaver has to be considered less steep than for the true freshmen, but they can be qualified as "newbies" with most of the team. I say Ford has achieved miracles of training and integration this year. Perkins and Weaver are profiling themselves very nicely. Hargrove has finally become a contributing member of the team (thank the Lord). Yuri took to the Bills and D1 like a duck takes to water, he belongs with us. Jimerson, unfortunately out temporarily, is a natural who will return. Bell is getting skilled in handling his size and playing with us (not an easy thing to do for a man so big). Anyone that thinks we are, now at this moment, playing as well or as integrated as a team that has played together for a couple of seasons (I mean most of the teams which are not made mainly newbies, like ours is) is underestimating SLU this year. Or so, I think. Therefore, the question of our top attainable level this season is, I believe, not yet established. I am not saying we will go to the stratosphere, I am saying we have a lot of potential integration and improvement ahead of us, and judging by what has been achieved this year I think may well continue improving for a lot longer than we estimate at this time. In other words, if the improvement and integration of the team as a whole continues at the level it has, we may be able to achieve a higher plateau than you anticipate at this time. Is an A level possible? yes It could happen in my opinion. Is an A level probable? this is where the probabilities favor your A- top estimate, no it is not very probable. Could it happen? Maybe, it all depends on Ford, the players, and a whole lot of unpredictable factors. So, those who have followed these thoughts without thinking I am hopelessly senile, please join me this first day of the year 2020 in drinking one additional glass of Blue Koolaid as I hope and expect these projections to materialize and become facts. Whatever happens, whether our level goes to A- or A, or even if we fail to get there, the rest of the season looks very nice to me. So, let's drink to the Bills, and may the Force be with you all. Happy New Year to all. Go Bills! billiken_roy likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bauman Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Happy New Year to you also OG. I like your analysis. As you can note from my preseason and recent posts, I am also drinking the Blue Koolaid. However, I think a lot depends on how we start the Conf. season at DUQ and how we make our way thru the first 6 - game stretch of Conf games. While I am hoping for a 14-4 A 10 record, 2 of the games I think we lose are in that group of games; @ Richmond and Dayton at home. 3-3 would be very disappointing and tell me that our NCAA chance is limited to winning the Conf Tournament---5-1 would be a great outcome and 4-2 if what I expect. Here's wishing an uncomplicated recovery to Gibson (we need you next year, and beyond) and a quick return by Fred (we need you this year, and beyond) and good health for the rest of the squad! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 tl;dr: Because the Bills are doing well to integrate mostly new pieces, perhaps their ceiling for "trending" may exceed The Wiz's projection of A-. 34 minutes ago, Old guy said: Wiz, I love this, you found a way to add the tails of the distribution curve to the 2 SD block covering the majority of possible outcomes by incorporating the trend. I fully agree with one caveat, the trend may not be limited by a semi-arbitrary estimated (educated guess based) barrier, for example an A- top. I think you are trying to estimate at what level the "improvement" trend plateau will arrive and the improvement curve will flatten. What I am saying (as an academic exercise if you wish) is that for a new team made out largely of "newbies" and freshmen with a few upperclassmen actively playing, the improvement and team cohesion level may, just may, continue beyond the top level you have estimated. What I am saying is that, given our performance trend as a team this year I think it is premature to place a top of any kind in this trend. Again, even if your estimated top level achievable this season is most likely to prove true (because it covers the vast majority of potential outcomes available), there is still an upper portion of the distribution curve beyond A- which is not covered by this estimate. At what level will we plateau this year? At this time in the season, I think the improving trend is correct and factual, but how high it will go is not predictable given the "newbie" composition of our team. What do I mean by few upperclassmen or a "newbie" team? This is simple, only Goodwin and French have been actively and consistently playing this season. Thatch has had his health problems and is not yet playing. Jacobs and Hankton did not play much at all last season which makes them de facto freshmen or "freshmen like" for this season (and, as we have seen, Hankton is a bit of a disappointment in the way he is playing). Perkins was a JUCO last season and had to get to know how to play in D1 which is new to him. Finally Weaver has had experience in D1 but in a totally different environment and (like Perkins) had to learn to fit our style of play and the types of opponents we play. The learning curve for both Perkins and Weaver has to be considered less steep than for the true freshmen, but they can be qualified as "newbies" with most of the team. I say Ford has achieved miracles of training and integration this year. Perkins and Weaver are profiling themselves very nicely. Hargrove has finally become a contributing member of the team (thank the Lord). Yuri took to the Bills and D1 like a duck takes to water, he belongs with us. Jimerson, unfortunately out temporarily, is a natural who will return. Bell is getting skilled in handling his size and playing with us (not an easy thing to do for a man so big). Anyone that thinks we are, now at this moment, playing as well or as integrated as a team that has played together for a couple of seasons (I mean most of the teams which are not made mainly newbies, like ours is) is underestimating SLU this year. Or so, I think. Therefore, the question of our top attainable level this season is, I believe, not yet established. I am not saying we will go to the stratosphere, I am saying we have a lot of potential integration and improvement ahead of us, and judging by what has been achieved this year I think may well continue improving for a lot longer than we estimate at this time. In other words, if the improvement and integration of the team as a whole continues at the level it has, we may be able to achieve a higher plateau than you anticipate at this time. Is an A level possible? yes It could happen in my opinion. Is an A level probable? this is where the probabilities favor your A- top estimate, no it is not very probable. Could it happen? Maybe, it all depends on Ford, the players, and a whole lot of unpredictable factors. So, those who have followed these thoughts without thinking I am hopelessly senile, please join me this first day of the year 2020 in drinking one additional glass of Blue Koolaid as I hope and expect these projections to materialize and become facts. Whatever happens, whether our level goes to A- or A, or even if we fail to get there, the rest of the season looks very nice to me. So, let's drink to the Bills, and may the Force be with you all. Happy New Year to all. Go Bills! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Stu gives his concise take on the A10. https://www.stltoday.com/sports/college/slu/team-by-team-look-at-atlantic-conference-basketball/article_eaf70958-e0a9-5ac6-9102-057fe148f6a7.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 1, 2020 Author Share Posted January 1, 2020 33 minutes ago, Old guy said: Wiz, I love this, you found a way to add the tails of the distribution curve to the 2 SD block covering the majority of possible outcomes by incorporating the trend. I fully agree with one caveat, the trend may not be limited by a semi-arbitrary estimated (educated guess based) barrier, for example an A- top. I think you are trying to estimate at what level the "improvement" trend plateau will arrive and the improvement curve will flatten. What I am saying (as an academic exercise if you wish) is that for a new team made out largely of "newbies" and freshmen with a few upperclassmen actively playing, the improvement and team cohesion level may, just may, continue beyond the top level you have estimated. What I am saying is that, given our performance trend as a team this year I think it is premature to place a top of any kind in this trend. Again, even if your estimated top level achievable this season is most likely to prove true (because it covers the vast majority of potential outcomes available), there is still an upper portion of the distribution curve beyond A- which is not covered by this estimate. At what level will we plateau this year? At this time in the season, I think the improving trend is correct and factual, but how high it will go is not predictable given the "newbie" composition of our team. What do I mean by few upperclassmen or a "newbie" team? This is simple, only Goodwin and French have been actively and consistently playing this season. Thatch has had his health problems and is not yet playing. Jacobs and Hankton did not play much at all last season which makes them de facto freshmen or "freshmen like" for this season (and, as we have seen, Hankton is a bit of a disappointment in the way he is playing). Perkins was a JUCO last season and had to get to know how to play in D1 which is new to him. Finally Weaver has had experience in D1 but in a totally different environment and (like Perkins) had to learn to fit our style of play and the types of opponents we play. The learning curve for both Perkins and Weaver has to be considered less steep than for the true freshmen, but they can be qualified as "newbies" with most of the team. I say Ford has achieved miracles of training and integration this year. Perkins and Weaver are profiling themselves very nicely. Hargrove has finally become a contributing member of the team (thank the Lord). Yuri took to the Bills and D1 like a duck takes to water, he belongs with us. Jimerson, unfortunately out temporarily, is a natural who will return. Bell is getting skilled in handling his size and playing with us (not an easy thing to do for a man so big). Anyone that thinks we are, now at this moment, playing as well or as integrated as a team that has played together for a couple of seasons (I mean most of the teams which are not made mainly newbies, like ours is) is underestimating SLU this year. Or so, I think. Therefore, the question of our top attainable level this season is, I believe, not yet established. I am not saying we will go to the stratosphere, I am saying we have a lot of potential integration and improvement ahead of us, and judging by what has been achieved this year I think may well continue improving for a lot longer than we estimate at this time. In other words, if the improvement and integration of the team as a whole continues at the level it has, we may be able to achieve a higher plateau than you anticipate at this time. Is an A level possible? yes It could happen in my opinion. Is an A level probable? this is where the probabilities favor your A- top estimate, no it is not very probable. Could it happen? Maybe, it all depends on Ford, the players, and a whole lot of unpredictable factors. So, those who have followed these thoughts without thinking I am hopelessly senile, please join me this first day of the year 2020 in drinking one additional glass of Blue Koolaid as I hope and expect these projections to materialize and become facts. Whatever happens, whether our level goes to A- or A, or even if we fail to get there, the rest of the season looks very nice to me. So, let's drink to the Bills, and may the Force be with you all. Happy New Year to all. Go Bills! This forecast is a snapshot in time on Jan 1, 2020 not a permanent lid.... The trend line means if we keep playing in the future as we have done recently our grade will approach A-...If we exceed...i.e. beat the projected spreads on a consistent basis ...then the A- could move up...a difficult thing to do as the spreads will also keep reflecting the improving teams....plus you are in rarefied air once you enter the A cateory....competition is very stiff. Look at Dayton....playing at the highest level (A+ trending)...yet overall still an A...Still an A because it is very difficult to move a full plate of stats up a notch at the highest level....As for the Bills...if you look at the Round 2 forecast from Dec 10....we were rated a B at that time....we have grown and improved a lot since then not to mention a number of wins....yet we are still B at this time...We have underperformed some of the spreads ( spreads are only one forecasting tool...just an example here)...the computer doesn't see the improvement yet at this point....but human performance doesn't come in slow methodical ways....it builds and then there is a break through in performance. So the short answer is ...yes we can continue to move the trend line up ....I am sure I will mention the trend grades in future spread threads as it is important stat for a young , improving and changing team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Thank you Wiz, that is exactly the response I was aiming at. We are dealing with the tails of the distribution curve here, something I have had a fair amount of experience with. I want to emphasize something, if I may. I am not aiming at Dayton as the make it or break it target, although I think we can win at least one of the two games with them. I know the competition at the A level is stiff, and I know every team we play against has also undergone a change since the beginning of the season. Not every team has been changing for the better some are not or are stationary. This change, which we are referring to as the trend, occurs at different rates in different teams. We know we are moving in the right direction fairly rapidly, the change in the stats shows that. Even better, we have continued moving upwards despite the absence of significant players. This is VERY good for us. From a non mathematical point of view, if we are trending upwards faster than the competition, the A10, we will do just FINE. Indeed, we may do better than we thought at the beginning of the season. I do not know how far we will go with trend, but like in the market I am not dismissing the trend until it starts going flat or down. Again, I am not talking about Dayton as the ultimate target, and I agree that we will have difficulties with several other teams in A10 as well. However, as long as Bell, Perkins, Weaver, Hargrove and Jacobs continue improving, as long as Yuri's thumbs do not go bad, and as long as Thatch can come back to active play, I really do not see the favorable improving trend we are in now going flat or down. This is a probabilistic point of view although it is not strictly Bayesian. Maybe I am living in a fantasy world, but it is my fantasy and I am enjoying it immensely. I am delighted to read you agree that, at least under certain restricted and hard to achieve set of circumstances, we can advance beyond A- provided we continue improving. I do recognize and appreciate the quality of your work and your knowledge about stats and the sport. I believe we all have been waiting for something like this to happen, and I am delighted to see how the season is profiling itself. All the best, and Go Bills! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dennis_w Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 i am living in that same fantasy world, i will ride this upward trend until it goes flat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 2, 2020 Author Share Posted January 2, 2020 One thing I forgot/ ran out of time to do is include The Bills projected record for conference play.... Most likely....13-5.....With this finish, we would need at least 1 win to have a good chance for a Dance...2 wins and we are in Best case.....15-3...This is not a kool aid prediction but is based on the Trend/ Momentum line and assumes we will play the rest of the season like we have played recently....Prognosis ....Get out your Dancin' shoes Worst case....10-8...,.We lose the close games and the momentum ....At this point it would take another Tourney sweep to see March Madness from the inside . In the end ....25 wins will be the magic number A-10 bids...2 bids...75%..........3 bids....55%.........4 bids ....25% SShoe, TheDude, glazedandconfused and 1 other like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 hour ago, The Wiz said: One thing I forgot/ ran out of time to do is include The Bills projected record for conference play.... Most likely....13-5.....With this finish, we would need at least 1 win to have a good chance for a Dance...2 wins and we are in Best case.....15-3...This is not a kool aid prediction but is based on the Trend/ Momentum line and assumes we will play the rest of the season like we have played recently....Prognosis ....Get out your Dancin' shoes Worst case....10-8...,.We lose the close games and the momentum ....At this point it would take another Tourney sweep to see March Madness from the inside . In the end ....25 wins will be the magic number A-10 bids...2 bids...75%..........3 bids....55%.........4 bids ....25% -Wiz, are your 5 @SVU, @Rhodey, @Rich and home to SVU and VCU? or does @David or another take one of these spots? I do not think we will lose twice to SVU if we are mostly healthy even if those guys remember Brooklyn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 3, 2020 Author Share Posted January 3, 2020 8 hours ago, Cowboy said: -Wiz, are your 5 @SVU, @Rhodey, @Rich and home to SVU and VCU? or does @David or another take one of these spots? I do not think we will lose twice to SVU if we are mostly healthy even if those guys remember Brooklyn Here is how it shakes out.... Most probable.....13-5....3 losses....2 Day & RI....There are 4 games that were too close too call....Duq away.....Rich.....Dav.....VCU.....The computer gives us 2 wins of those 4 games...so with the loss to Duq...we need to take 2 of the remaining 3 Best case ...15-3 .... computer assumes we win all 4...that doesn't happen with the loss to Duq...best case now....14-4 Worst case ...10-8...it assumes we lose all 4 of the above games plus GM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 10 hours ago, The Wiz said: Here is how it shakes out.... Most probable.....13-5....3 losses....2 Day & RI....There are 4 games that were too close too call....Duq away.....Rich.....Dav.....VCU.....The computer gives us 2 wins of those 4 games...so with the loss to Duq...we need to take 2 of the remaining 3 Best case ...15-3 .... computer assumes we win all 4...that doesn't happen with the loss to Duq...best case now....14-4 Worst case ...10-8...it assumes we lose all 4 of the above games plus GM -thank you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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