A10: 2019 OOC Results/Ratings

[Taj79]

Ballgame.

Only one game left, Geedubya tonight at Vermont (NL) with an expected Vermont win so the standings are set as we embark on A10 play come Thursday.  What I have seen so far:

Dayton (11 - 2):  deserve their ranking and are the team to beat.  Probably the most complete team I have seen in the A10 since the peak of VCU Havoc.  Toppin is unquestionably NBA talent, a maybe even lottery pick.  His athleticism is out the roof and his confidence is sky high.  Transfers Chatman and Watson have been able players; Tshimanga has not due to injury but is playing his way back.  Chase Johnson hasn't played since early December (injury?).  Mikesell and Landers are decent role players and Chatman has taken over at PG moving Crutcher to SG.  Cohill and Matos are available for decent minutes to rest starters.  Maybe a singular loss at VCU before it's all over.

VCU (10 - 3):  Marcus Evans is the engine at the point and Marcus Santos-Silva is their version of French down low.  De'Riante Jenkins and Isaac Vann are streaky on the outside but Simms, Crowfield, and Vince Williams are all nice players capable of going off any night.  Freshman Na'shon Hyland is coming on.  It's not Havoc but it is closer to that than not.  They likely won't lose at Siegel but have key roadies against us, Dayton, Mason, Rhodey and Richmond (state and city rivalry) that will be key.

Rhode Island (8 - 3):  They are still Langevine, Dowtin and Russell but there is something to say for veteran leadership.  Antwan Walker,a transfer from G-town, is now eligible and has average 11 ppg in the two games he has played.  Much better than Jermaine Harris.  Jacob Toppin, Obi's brother, has shown decent hops as a freshman and Tyrese Martin can shoot with anyone when on.  Weak bench.

Mason (11 - 2):  The Patriots haven't played anyone nor gone on the road.  Losses have been at Power 5 teams Maryland and TCU.  TCU beat them by 30+ last night.  Justin Kier is back and getting into playing shape but his injury allowed Javon Greene and Jordan Miller time to develop.  AJ Wilson is also coming on but I need to see him against decent competition to see how illusionary that might really be.

Richmond (10 - 3):  still only a five man team with Gilyard, Francis, Sherrod, Golden and Cato and I'm not sold on Cato.    An injury, especially to Gilyard, and they could be meat.  With the exception of Wojcik and threes off the bench, a very weak bench to say the least.

These are the top five and our main competitors as I see it.

Second tier:

Bonaventure (8 - 5):  This is a two man team in Lofton on the offensive and Osunniyi on the defense.  Welch remains mostly a catch-n-shoot shooter.  They go six deep with Winston, Velasquez, English and Ipkeze and sometimes Bobby Planutis but they need three of these guys to step up nightly.  Schmidt always gets more with less.

Duquesne (10 - 2):  The parts seem decent in Hughes, Weathers, Carry, and Austin.  Dunn-Martin is a Weaver clone.  GT Steele is a Euro 4/5 and has his nights.  They are streaky ---- they can easily score 20 in a half and then return with 60 in the second.  It appears Thursday's game, on ESPN+, is a near sell out for them at Bobby Morris U. against us.  Dambrot is approaching Schmidt as a coach I hate to see.  They will be motivated Thursday to show they are legit.

Davidson (6- 6):  The defending champs upgraded their schedule and got relatively hammered to date.  Kellan Grady's 3-point % is down; JAG is doing okay but not POY relative.  Brajkovic remains their lone big and he's somewhat soft.  Top shooter Luke Frampton left team.  Carter Collins has developed well and freshmen Mike Jones and Hyunjung Lee have shown some promise.  But both are Grady/JAG clones.  But this remains pretty much the same team as last year.  Does that bode well for the A10 season?  Maybe.

La Salle (9 - 3):  They really haven't played anyone and when they do (Big Five opponents Penn, Temple and Nova) they lose.  But Ashley Howard is deleting the stink of a program left behind by John Giannini.  They are a hodge-podge of talent in Beatty, Phiri, Deas and Croswell and they could surprise, but discipline has always been a problem.  Ayinde Hikim is a nice, smallish PG from DC and he and Collins will engage in decent battles over the next four years.

Top bottom Feeder: Umass (6 - 7):  Umass' schedule is a tour of New England and they did well there but they have lost seven out of their last eight falling short at Akron last night.  McCall continues to try and right the ship of the former home of Julius Erving and Marcus Camby.  TJ Weeks, Tre Mitchell and Sean East are all decent players but are freshmen.  Carl Pierre and Keon Clergeot are decent juniors so look for them next year or maybe even in late February to early March to gel.

The Three Stooges remain Fordham (6-6), Geedubya (6-7 with loss tonight) and the Joey's (3 - 9).  These will be three of the four PIG members come March.  Fordham has played arguably the easiest schedule in the nation. Cobb and Portley are a decent back court and Ohams is better than Cory Remekun but not by much.  Geedubya is in a complete rebuild although Jameer Nelson Jr. shows promise.  And the Joeys are all Ryan Daly, the big guard transfer from Delaware.  But on any given night .....

On many nights, especially those road swing games, it will come down to desire and imposing our will.  That's where Goodwin, French, Perkins and hopefully Thatch take over.  Going to be a wild ride....... caution, carnage awaits.

A Top Four finish is there for the taking.  I think that is the aim.

[wgstl]

as of now, the tier or groupings to me are(power rankings of sorts)

Dayton

VCU, Rhody, SLU

Richmond

Dukes, Davidson, Mason, Bonnies

La Salle, Umass, GW, SJU

Fordham

 

VCU isnt as good as I thought they would be, and simply opposite of that for Dayton. 

[bauman]

19 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

Ballgame.

Only one game left, Geedubya tonight at Vermont (NL) with an expected Vermont win so the standings are set as we embark on A10 play come Thursday.  What I have seen so far:

Dayton (11 - 2):  deserve their ranking and are the team to beat.  Probably the most complete team I have seen in the A10 since the peak of VCU Havoc.  Toppin is unquestionably NBA talent, a maybe even lottery pick.  His athleticism is out the roof and his confidence is sky high.  Transfers Chatman and Watson have been able players; Tshimanga has not due to injury but is playing his way back.  Chase Johnson hasn't played since early December (injury?).  Mikesell and Landers are decent role players and Chatman has taken over at PG moving Crutcher to SG.  Cohill and Matos are available for decent minutes to rest starters.  Maybe a singular loss at VCU before it's all over.

VCU (10 - 3):  Marcus Evans is the engine at the point and Marcus Santos-Silva is their version of French down low.  De'Riante Jenkins and Isaac Vann are streaky on the outside but Simms, Crowfield, and Vince Williams are all nice players capable of going off any night.  Freshman Na'shon Hyland is coming on.  It's not Havoc but it is closer to that than not.  They likely won't lose at Siegel but have key roadies against us, Dayton, Mason, Rhodey and Richmond (state and city rivalry) that will be key.

Rhode Island (8 - 3):  They are still Langevine, Dowtin and Russell but there is something to say for veteran leadership.  Antwan Walker,a transfer from G-town, is now eligible and has average 11 ppg in the two games he has played.  Much better than Jermaine Harris.  Jacob Toppin, Obi's brother, has shown decent hops as a freshman and Tyrese Martin can shoot with anyone when on.  Weak bench.

Mason (11 - 2):  The Patriots haven't played anyone nor gone on the road.  Losses have been at Power 5 teams Maryland and TCU.  TCU beat them by 30+ last night.  Justin Kier is back and getting into playing shape but his injury allowed Javon Greene and Jordan Miller time to develop.  AJ Wilson is also coming on but I need to see him against decent competition to see how illusionary that might really be.

Richmond (10 - 3):  still only a five man team with Gilyard, Francis, Sherrod, Golden and Cato and I'm not sold on Cato.    An injury, especially to Gilyard, and they could be meat.  With the exception of Wojcik and threes off the bench, a very weak bench to say the least.

These are the top five and our main competitors as I see it.

Second tier:

Bonaventure (8 - 5):  This is a two man team in Lofton on the offensive and Osunniyi on the defense.  Welch remains mostly a catch-n-shoot shooter.  They go six deep with Winston, Velasquez, English and Ipkeze and sometimes Bobby Planutis but they need three of these guys to step up nightly.  Schmidt always gets more with less.

Duquesne (10 - 2):  The parts seem decent in Hughes, Weathers, Carry, and Austin.  Dunn-Martin is a Weaver clone.  GT Steele is a Euro 4/5 and has his nights.  They are streaky ---- they can easily score 20 in a half and then return with 60 in the second.  It appears Thursday's game, on ESPN+, is a near sell out for them at Bobby Morris U. against us.  Dambrot is approaching Schmidt as a coach I hate to see.  They will be motivated Thursday to show they are legit.

Davidson (6- 6):  The defending champs upgraded their schedule and got relatively hammered to date.  Kellan Grady's 3-point % is down; JAG is doing okay but not POY relative.  Brajkovic remains their lone big and he's somewhat soft.  Top shooter Luke Frampton left team.  Carter Collins has developed well and freshmen Mike Jones and Hyunjung Lee have shown some promise.  But both are Grady/JAG clones.  But this remains pretty much the same team as last year.  Does that bode well for the A10 season?  Maybe.

La Salle (9 - 3):  They really haven't played anyone and when they do (Big Five opponents Penn, Temple and Nova) they lose.  But Ashley Howard is deleting the stink of a program left behind by John Giannini.  They are a hodge-podge of talent in Beatty, Phiri, Deas and Croswell and they could surprise, but discipline has always been a problem.  Ayinde Hikim is a nice, smallish PG from DC and he and Collins will engage in decent battles over the next four years.

Top bottom Feeder: Umass (6 - 7):  Umass' schedule is a tour of New England and they did well there but they have lost seven out of their last eight falling short at Akron last night.  McCall continues to try and right the ship of the former home of Julius Erving and Marcus Camby.  TJ Weeks, Tre Mitchell and Sean East are all decent players but are freshmen.  Carl Pierre and Keon Clergeot are decent juniors so look for them next year or maybe even in late February to early March to gel.

The Three Stooges remain Fordham (6-6), Geedubya (6-7 with loss tonight) and the Joey's (3 - 9).  These will be three of the four PIG members come March.  Fordham has played arguably the easiest schedule in the nation. Cobb and Portley are a decent back court and Ohams is better than Cory Remekun but not by much.  Geedubya is in a complete rebuild although Jameer Nelson Jr. shows promise.  And the Joeys are all Ryan Daly, the big guard transfer from Delaware.  But on any given night .....

On many nights, especially those road swing games, it will come down to desire and imposing our will.  That's where Goodwin, French, Perkins and hopefully Thatch take over.  Going to be a wild ride....... caution, carnage awaits.

A Top Four finish is there for the taking.  I think that is the aim.

Despite BRoy's post in another thread about only 2 A 10 teams possibly making the Tournament, I think we are a 3 bid league, UNLESS we take turns beating each other up.  So to me the goal is top 3 in the conference, which I think we would be if we finish 14-4 which is my hoped/predicted conference record.

[wgstl]

9 minutes ago, bauman said:

Despite BRoy's post in another thread about only 2 A 10 teams possibly making the Tournament, I think we are a 3 bid league, UNLESS we take turns beating each other up.  So to me the goal is top 3 in the conference, which I think we would be if we finish 14-4 which is my hoped/predicted conference record.

If Richmond or the dukes pull of some big wins ie SLU, VCU, or rhody, I can easily see 2 bids.  If the top 4 fend off everyone else than 3 bids possibly 4. I just think that tier of Mason, richmond, and duquesne, and maybe bonnies can hurt some teams

[jweste216]

I think that winning in a hostile atmosphere like Kansas City against KSU will bode well in our away games in the A-10.

[3star_recruit]

29 minutes ago, bauman said:

Despite BRoy's post in another thread about only 2 A 10 teams possibly making the Tournament, I think we are a 3 bid league, UNLESS we take turns beating each other up.  So to me the goal is top 3 in the conference, which I think we would be if we finish 14-4 which is my hoped/predicted conference record.

I agree that we're a 3 bid league.  Someone in the top 4 will knock off Dayton, elevating their NET ranking 12-15 spots on that win alone.  Beating Dayton and finishing in the top 4 will boost that team's ranking at least 20 spots over what it is today.  The question is will it be us or someone else?

The third bid will be earned by someone other than Dayton winning the conference tournament.  If you bet against the top rated conference team winning the conference tournament, you would have won 100% of the time the last six years.

 

[billiken_roy]

15 minutes ago, bauman said:

Despite BRoy's post in another thread about only 2 A 10 teams possibly making the Tournament, I think we are a 3 bid league, UNLESS we take turns beating each other up.  So to me the goal is top 3 in the conference, which I think we would be if we finish 14-4 which is my hoped/predicted conference record.

that isnt me talking.  that is the NET rankings.    the ncaa has declared that is their current bible and not much the A10 can do about it until they crack that code.   one would have thought with the decent out of conference season the A10 had that indeed we would be in better shape then we are.   but obviously the ncaa is going to do all they can to put the power conferences into the most positions they can and be damned the rest of the Division one conferences.   

do the math.   remember all conferences get at least the one spot and right now there are between 20-24 conferences that will only get one spot.  with only 68 spots, and just knowing that there will be some expected team in the borderline conferences get upset not gonna be more than about 40-48 what the ncaa declares have to spots to give.    that wont get down to 60 (billiken current rank) or even VCU's current rank of 50.   both have to have pretty successful conference seasons to climb the NET rankings and be in line for an invite and make the A10 a 3 bid league.  

After dayton, vcu and slu, both rhodey and Richmond are currently in the 70's.  outlook for the A10 isnt exactly bright.  

[billiken_roy]

17 minutes ago, wgstl said:

If Richmond or the dukes pull of some big wins ie SLU, VCU, or rhody, I can easily see 2 bids.  If the top 4 fend off everyone else than 3 bids possibly 4. I just think that tier of Mason, richmond, and duquesne, and maybe bonnies can hurt some teams

duquesne is 96 mason is 104.   bonnies are 169  they will all have to win the A10 tourney.

[billiken_roy]

4 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

I agree that we're a 3 bid league.  Someone in the top 4 will knock off Dayton, elevating their NET ranking 12-15 spots on that win alone.  Beating Dayton and finishing in the top 4 will boost that team's ranking at least 20 spots over what it is today.  The question is will it be us or someone else?

The third bid will be earned by someone other than Dayton winning the conference tournament.  If you bet against the top rated conference team winning the conference tournament, you would have won 100% of the time the last six years.

 

you are also assuming that these supposed dayton upset makers dont blow a game to a lesser ranked team.   hope you are right.  

[wgstl]

Just now, billiken_roy said:

duquesne is 96 mason is 104.   bonnies are 169  they will all have to win the A10 tourney.

im not saying one of those 3 teams makes it, im saying those 3 teams are good enough to knock off SLU, VCU, or rhody thus making it harder for 3 bids or more. 

[3star_recruit]

3 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

you are also assuming that these supposed dayton upset makers dont blow a game to a lesser ranked team.   hope you are right.  

There's always that possibility. Considering there are 10 A10 teams in the top 150, there are fewer opportunities for bad losses than there have been the past 5 years.  And the A10 has managed at least 3 bids every year except the last one.

[billiken_roy]

7 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

There's always that possibility. Considering there are 10 A10 teams in the top 150, there are fewer opportunities for bad losses than there have been the past 5 years.  And the A10 has managed at least 3 bids every year except the last one.

but a loss to a top 150 team will still be costly when the billikens or vcu are trying to move up.  they will not be able to afford those losses.  

imo the billikens and vcu can afford very very few (if any) losses beyond maybe one loss to dayton.   we really needed to win vs seton and / or auburn.   in hindsight, an auburn win would have really been great.  especially considering that game was winnable   

[RUBillsFan]

I think the best possible (but very unlikely) scenario for the A10 is that the top 5 teams currently in the NET rankings (12 Dayton, 50 VCU, 60 SLU, 70 Rhody, 79 Richmond) win all of their games against teams 6-14 hopefully by wide margins.  Then those top 5 teams mostly split close games against each other with the lower teams (SLU, Rhody, Richmond) perhaps taking more games versus Dayton since the Flyers have more of a cushion.  Essentially A-10 standings wind up with a 4 way logjam at the top of teams with around 3 A10 losses and Dayton at #5.  I think this scenario would put all 5 teams in the NCAA tournament or at least on the bubble.  Then some other team ends up winning the A10 tournament and getting the auto-bid while these top 5 teams all advance as far as possible in the A10 tournament.  That makes 6 possible NCAA teams from the A10.

Realistically, I think the A10 ends up with 3 bids (Dayton, VCU, ?) and maybe a 4th if a team outside the top 3 wins the A10 tournament and we get lucky with other conference tournaments not having teams poaching auto-bids.

[Compton]

Richmond has really regressed. Beating ODU by 3 and then getting beaten by Radford and Alabama by 15 and 12 really takes them out of that “knocking on the door” group. Like wgstl categorized, VCU, Rhody and SLU seem to be the three left in control of their own destinies, with Dayton established as a tourney level team. 

[billikenfan05]

1 hour ago, jweste216 said:

I think that winning in a hostile atmosphere like Kansas City against KSU will bode well in our away games in the A-10.

Only two road games will have tougher atmospheres: UD and VCU

[drkelsey55]

17 minutes ago, billikenfan05 said:

Only two road games will have tougher atmospheres: UD and VCU

We only play VCU at home this year.

 

[billikenfan05]

4 minutes ago, drkelsey55 said:

We only play VCU at home this year.

 

Whoops.

[HoosierPal]

With only one OOC game remaining, here are some interesting Atlantic 10 stats.

Leading Scorer, St. Joe's Daly at 20.4 ppg.  Goodwin is 7th at 15.2 ppg

Leading Rebounder, Goodwin at 11.4 rpg. Langevine is 2nd at 11.0

Leading FG% is Croswell from LaSalle at 0.632.  French is 10th at 0.530.

Leading 3FG% is Crowfield of VCU at 0.526.  Jimerson listed at 10th with .429 and Weaver in 15th at .406.

Leading Assists is Bonnie's Lofton at 6.6 apg.  Collins is 4th at 5.8 apg.

Leading A/TO ratio is Richmond's Gilyard at 3.4.  Collins is 9th at 1.9.

Leading Blocks is George Mason's Wilson at 3.8 bpg.  French is 3rd at 2.6 bpg.

Leading Steals is Gilyard at 3.5 spg.  Goodwin is 4th at 2.2 spg.

Leading in Minutes is Lofton at 38.6 mpg.  Goodwin is10th at 33.8 mpg.

[kshoe]

SLU needs to finish the regular season 24-6 (14-4 in the A-10) or better against D1 teams to feel good about an at large bid. It would be nice to have a win or two over Dayton, VCU and Rhode Island but by definition if you get those that means you are losing to teams on the bottom. All else equal I'll take the name wins with bottom losses if given the choice.

This website is pretty neat and shows various rankings, projections, etc. http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2020/team-clubhouse?team=Saint-Louis

Per this website, SLU currently is 60 in the NET and 56 in the RPI so those two pretty much line up. In the predicted results tab of that website it shows us with a 23-7 record and a final RPI of 43. Hence, if we finish with a 24-6 record we'll have a sub 40 RPI and I'm going to extrapolate a sub 40 NET. Of course there are other factors and we can't win every game by 1 and lose the 4 games by 10 or more. 

But at the end of the day the Billikens are 24-6 and finish in the top 3 of the conference (which a 14-4 record will almost assuredly accomplish) we'll be dancing.

[HoosierPal]

1 hour ago, kshoe said:

SLU needs to finish the regular season 24-6 (14-4 in the A-10) or better against D1 teams to feel good about an at large bid. It would be nice to have a win or two over Dayton, VCU and Rhode Island but by definition if you get those that means you are losing to teams on the bottom. All else equal I'll take the name wins with bottom losses if given the choice.

This website is pretty neat and shows various rankings, projections, etc. http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2020/team-clubhouse?team=Saint-Louis

Per this website, SLU currently is 60 in the NET and 56 in the RPI so those two pretty much line up. In the predicted results tab of that website it shows us with a 23-7 record and a final RPI of 43. Hence, if we finish with a 24-6 record we'll have a sub 40 RPI and I'm going to extrapolate a sub 40 NET. Of course there are other factors and we can't win every game by 1 and lose the 4 games by 10 or more. 

But at the end of the day the Billikens are 24-6 and finish in the top 3 of the conference (which a 14-4 record will almost assuredly accomplish) we'll be dancing.

Wow, DePaul fell 28 places by losing an 8 point home game to Seton Hall.

[HoosierPal]

5 hours ago, billiken_roy said:

that isnt me talking.  that is the NET rankings.    the ncaa has declared that is their current bible and not much the A10 can do about it until they crack that code.   one would have thought with the decent out of conference season the A10 had that indeed we would be in better shape then we are.   but obviously the ncaa is going to do all they can to put the power conferences into the most positions they can and be damned the rest of the Division one conferences.   

do the math.   remember all conferences get at least the one spot and right now there are between 20-24 conferences that will only get one spot.  with only 68 spots, and just knowing that there will be some expected team in the borderline conferences get upset not gonna be more than about 40-48 what the ncaa declares have to spots to give.    that wont get down to 60 (billiken current rank) or even VCU's current rank of 50.   both have to have pretty successful conference seasons to climb the NET rankings and be in line for an invite and make the A10 a 3 bid league.  

After dayton, vcu and slu, both rhodey and Richmond are currently in the 70's.  outlook for the A10 isnt exactly bright.  

I agree mostly with what you are saying.  This interesting website shows the "NET Bracket" based on Dec 30 rankings.  By this math, A10 is a one bid league. But we all know that if you are a "Syracuse" at 50 you are in.  If you are a VCU at 50 you are out.  Stir in a down SEC, a strong Big Ten, a stronger Big East and weaker than normal ACC, and you get some interesting possibilities.

https://bracketologists.com/bracket/

[moytoy12]

Who is the last A10 team with 23+ wins that didn’t make the dance? 

[3star_recruit]

2 hours ago, kshoe said:

SLU needs to finish the regular season 24-6 (14-4 in the A-10) or better against D1 teams to feel good about an at large bid. It would be nice to have a win or two over Dayton, VCU and Rhode Island but by definition if you get those that means you are losing to teams on the bottom. All else equal I'll take the name wins with bottom losses if given the choice.

This website is pretty neat and shows various rankings, projections, etc. http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2020/team-clubhouse?team=Saint-Louis

Per this website, SLU currently is 60 in the NET and 56 in the RPI so those two pretty much line up. In the predicted results tab of that website it shows us with a 23-7 record and a final RPI of 43. Hence, if we finish with a 24-6 record we'll have a sub 40 RPI and I'm going to extrapolate a sub 40 NET. Of course there are other factors and we can't win every game by 1 and lose the 4 games by 10 or more. 

But at the end of the day the Billikens are 24-6 and finish in the top 3 of the conference (which a 14-4 record will almost assuredly accomplish) we'll be dancing.

23-7 plus two wins in the A-10 tournament to get to 25-8, we'll also be dancing.

[almaman]

root for every team above us in D-1 to lose as often as possible.

[Taj79]

Addendum:  Rhode Island just got a little weaker as Dana Tate announces transfer.  I still feel Jermaine Harris could be next out of Kingston.  Especially if Walker takes his minutes.  Harris was a four-star recruit.