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The Bills and Duq EVEN*


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59 minutes ago, slu72 said:

This is where we're really going to miss Gibby. You could see in the games he played in after he established he was a legit 3 pt threat that teams had done their homework and the inside became more open for French and JGood to do their damage. We are going to need Jacobs, Weaver, and Perkins to really step up and provide some outside shots to keep things honest. Otherwise, we're going to see teams putting 4 guys down in the trenches in what will resemble a WWE match. 

I agree. I do think, even without Jimerson, this team has more shooting than any of the recent SLU teams. Jacobs and Weaver should see a lot of time if teams start to play 2-3 against us. And if one of Goodwin/Yuri/Perkins/Thatch can be relatively consistent from 3, we should be much better off against zone defense than prior years. 

 

Plus, zone defense may help stifle our offensive flow, but JGood and French will eat up the offensive boards against most zone defenses. 

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Saw this on the Duquesne board and thought it was fun read. Interestingly, if you change the site from 'away' to 'neutral', this turns into a projected win for the Bills. I like to look at all of the quant sites (Massey, Kenpom, Warren Nolan, etc.) and think the work the Wiz does (thank you!) is better than most, if not all. The 'trend' piece to his work appears to be somewhat unique. Thanks again Wiz.

http://haslametrics.com/preview.php?yr=&tid1=4391&tid2=301&neut=0

 

 

 

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33 minutes ago, shempie said:

Saw this on the Duquesne board and thought it was fun read. Interestingly, if you change the site from 'away' to 'neutral', this turns into a projected win for the Bills. I like to look at all of the quant sites (Massey, Kenpom, Warren Nolan, etc.) and think the work the Wiz does (thank you!) is better than most, if not all. The 'trend' piece to his work appears to be somewhat unique. Thanks again Wiz.

http://haslametrics.com/preview.php?yr=&tid1=4391&tid2=301&neut=0

 

 

 

Interesting, but almost an overload of information.  I like the turtle symbol for our pace.  So much for the Running of the Bills.  Free throws just might be the difference in this game.  The Dukes do have Hughes and Steele in the paint (and to an extent Weathers), so they could moderately Hack-a-Hasahn.  They wouldn't want to get either into serious foul trouble, though.

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1 hour ago, glazedandconfused said:

I agree. I do think, even without Jimerson, this team has more shooting than any of the recent SLU teams. Jacobs and Weaver should see a lot of time if teams start to play 2-3 against us. And if one of Goodwin/Yuri/Perkins/Thatch can be relatively consistent from 3, we should be much better off against zone defense than prior years. 

 

Plus, zone defense may help stifle our offensive flow, but JGood and French will eat up the offensive boards against most zone defenses. 

it seems to me, we started the year playing an up and down full court game on both sides of the court.   we now are back to playing walk it up offense and falling back on defense.   

imo nothing would do more good for our shooting than getting back to that full court game.   a few more bunnies off of steals and turnovers and getting out fast on defensive rebounds adds up looking at the shooting percentages.   

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1 hour ago, billiken_roy said:

it seems to me, we started the year playing an up and down full court game on both sides of the court.   we now are back to playing walk it up offense and falling back on defense.   

imo nothing would do more good for our shooting than getting back to that full court game.   a few more bunnies off of steals and turnovers and getting out fast on defensive rebounds adds up looking at the shooting percentages.   

I too was anticipating a much faster pace than previous teams.  But we are 11-2, so it is hard to complain.  We are averaging 3 fast break points more per game than last season so there is that.  But yeah, I was looking at 94-40 as to where we were going.  But when Collins was called for that 10 second violation walking the ball, uncontested, up the court, my hopes for the Running of the Bills all be disappeared.

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23 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

I too was anticipating a much faster pace than previous teams.  But we are 11-2, so it is hard to complain.  We are averaging 3 fast break points more per game than last season so there is that.  But yeah, I was looking at 94-40 as to where we were going.  But when Collins was called for that 10 second violation walking the ball, uncontested, up the court, my hopes for the Running of the Bills all be disappeared.

Our best defender being sidelined may have something to do with that the shelving of Full Court Bully Ball.

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-per KenPom last season our avg possession length was 18.3 (ranked 267) and that is 17.2 (ranked 165) so far this season -  I don't see a way on his site to see if the change to the 3pt line has impacted avg possession length so while we are perhaps just a little bit faster our pace of play goes back to those of us that said we would believe 94x40 when we saw it

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1 hour ago, 3star_recruit said:

Our best defender being sidelined may have something to do with that the shelving of Full Court Bully Ball.

i wont argue the fact we expected thatch to be our go to defender, but that said, imo defense (and rebounding as well) are more of an attitude than a skill.   especially if the battle plan is all out full court go get it defense.  (i still say havoc, but too many on here refuse to call that havoc) if ford is all so many of you say he is and i agree he is a supreme motivator, and we have more quality players on the roster than we maybe have had in a few decades, GD turn it up and play end to end.  

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As of this minute our NET is 56, improved from 58 and the Duke are 98 down 2 spots from 96. 

This is a game we have to win to keep any at large NCAA bid hope, alive.  I think 5 Conf losses eliminates an at large bid and I see (Sorry WIZ, based solely on instinct not Math or science) losses to Dayton (2); @ Richmond and @ URI.  I think we can beat VCU at Chaifetz, but at the present time you would have to deem that game a toss-up.

Win TONIGHT !!!

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44 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

i wont argue the fact we expected thatch to be our go to defender, but that said, imo defense (and rebounding as well) are more of an attitude than a skill.   especially if the battle plan is all out full court go get it defense.  (i still say havoc, but too many on here refuse to call that havoc) if ford is all so many of you say he is and i agree he is a supreme motivator, and we have more quality players on the roster than we maybe have had in a few decades, GD turn it up and play end to end.  

In that case Fred Thatch has the best “attitude” on defense. 

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22 minutes ago, Compton said:

In that case Fred Thatch has the best “attitude” on defense. 

i agree, all i'm saying is i sure hope the only reason we arent playing end to end defense is because fred thatch has been sick when all i have heard for a year on this board is that this roster is the most athletic and talented we have had in decades.  

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13 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

i agree, all i'm saying is i sure hope the only reason we arent playing end to end defense is because fred thatch has been sick when all i have heard for a year on this board is that this roster is the most athletic and talented we have had in decades.  

It sort of hurts when you don't have Jimerson or Thatch.  Naturally you have to change strategy some.

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1 hour ago, billiken_roy said:

i wont argue the fact we expected thatch to be our go to defender, but that said, imo defense (and rebounding as well) are more of an attitude than a skill.   especially if the battle plan is all out full court go get it defense.  (i still say havoc, but too many on here refuse to call that havoc) if ford is all so many of you say he is and i agree he is a supreme motivator, and we have more quality players on the roster than we maybe have had in a few decades, GD turn it up and play end to end.  

I'm assuming that means Hargrove's attitude is much improved

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OK, let's stop worrying about things we cannot fix. Let's stop the glass half empty view, and the we need to win this one thing. We are going to win it because Duquesne is not what the rankings or the NET say it is, we are a better team. Yes, without Jimerson and without Thatch, and we are going to win it.

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Here is the bottom line from the original post....

Bottom line... Again, this game looks close but if we play our game ...we win...maybe by as many as 9....But we have to play smart....if we start taking lots of 3s, if we don't work on their interior defense, If we let  Hughes and Weathers block shots, if we give up a lot of fouls ...we lose....Play smart and we win.....Go Bills

Lot's of 3's...yes ...20

Hughes and Weathers block shots...Remember 2 blks /player / gm is consdered an A....they had a combined 9

If we give up lots of fouls...yes.....71% more fouls...in most games we have less fouls than the opponent and consequently take more FT shots ...this is how we neutralize our poor shooting...not tonight and we did it against the 8th best FT shooting team.

But we are delving way to deep into the details. Let's get to the basics...bad slash...really bad...as in F-  across the board...37/ 39.5 / 30 /38.9...the reason I used a decimal in the slash was to point out that 2pt shooting was equal to FT shooting...usually a good thing except when FT shooting is well below F- threshold

We out rebounded them ...TO differential was a very good 6  (although we still gave up too many TOs)...we had extra chances ...more FGAs... 

What happened??

See the slash above....But let do the math....First we had an extra 15 FGAs.....of that 15 , we made 1.....6.7% .. I bolded the 1 and the decimal pt.   Here is how the slash breaks down if the Billikens have an average 2019-20 game....The Bills make 5 more baskets...1 more 3 and 4 more 2s.  In addition let's assume they have their usual cruddy FT night of 55%...that means 3 more FTM...3pts + 8pts (as in 4x2) + 3pts= 14pts....Hmm, this seems familiar...Oh yes ...that was the difference in the game....Unfortunately , the numbers don't lie.

Time to move on.   We still have around 94% of the conf season left.

Let's beat up on UMass and get on the right track.. 

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2 hours ago, The Wiz said:

 

But we are delving way to deep into the details. Let's get to the basics...bad slash...really bad...as in F-  across the board...37/ 39.5 / 30 /38.9...the reason I used a decimal in the slash was to point out that 2pt shooting was equal to FT shooting...usually a good thing except when FT shooting is well below F- threshold

.. 

I'm getting so tired of hearing you say F- when talking about our slashes. Feel like it happens so often. I miss Gibson

Thanks for the breakdown though. Good stuff as always

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8 hours ago, RiseOfTheBillikens said:

I'm getting so tired of hearing you say F- when talking about our slashes. Feel like it happens so often. I miss Gibson

Thanks for the breakdown though. Good stuff as always

I am getting tired of me saying F- too. 

Until recently (the Crews years) there was no F- or F+...just F.    But it was during those years, unfortunately ,  I had to develop some new standards for bad. However it is getting better...Even after last night bad slash line we are currently C-/ C / F-  (2nd worst)...so things are a lot better than last year's triple F.   Hopefully we will fix the FT shooting this year or next and we will be done with the Fs for a while.

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