The Bills and Duq EVEN*

[The Wiz]

Another good win ...this time over Be Cook....Why was it a good win...because Jordan makes it a Good Win...sorry I couldn't resist...It was good because we didn't play very well  and still managed to win by a decent amount....sign of a good team....For more detail ...see the post game analysis in the spread thread...

And now it is on to the Duqs and conf play. No easy opponent here....If we are to win this game ...it will have to be done the old fashion way...we will have to earn it. One thing you will notice in the headline is a asterisk....I put that there when ever there is a discrepancy.  The Bills and Duq are both B teams....most betting and forecasting services will come out either at even or within a point or two of even...in other words a very close game. But I think to evaluate the game properly you need to look at the trending line....and therein lies the discrepancy.  The Duqs are trending at C....The Bills are trending at A-.  This translates to Bills by 9.  So I would have to give the nod to The Bills in this game.  This means we have to play Bills ball...no Maryville or Be Cook type games. We go cold here or start to have TOs then we lose....no margin of error.

Let's take a look at the report card...

 

..............................SLU.............................Duq.............................................SLU.................................Duq

................................................OFF................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................C+.............................C+................................................B......................................A-

FG%.........................C..............................B-................................................ ..B+....................................C

3Pt%........................C...............................D-.................................................D-......................................A-

FT%.........................F-...3rd worst ITN.....A+....8th ITN.............................................................................

Reb.........................A..................................D................................................C........................................B+

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF rebs = opp reb

 Bills  Offensive reb....A+....10th  ITN....up

Change from last game (UP means improvement ...Down means worse)....UP ..PPG...Def FG% and Def 3P%  and FT%...while our grade didn't go up ...our ranking went from  2nd worst to 3rd worst....keep that arrow up.....  DOWN.....FG%,,,3P%...Def PPG...Opp Reb

Top 100 ITN

Stls....Goodwin ...43rd.....down

Assts...Collins....32nd...down

Rebs...Goodwin...9th.....French..32nd...up and down

Blks.....French....21st...up

FG%...M Hughes...43rd ..Weathers...97th.

Blks...Hughes...26th...Weathers...86th

 

Injury report....

Duq....Kelly ,,,Torn ACL on 10/30...out till mid Jan

SLU...Thatch.. 12/29 ..illness...Questionable...It is unclear at this time whether he will play in the Duq game

 

WWN2D2W....Make the slash....44/50/34/ 61...I have added 2pt to the slash because I think it will be important...We need to shoot 50%.... we need to hold them to 50% from inside the arc....It will be tough to shoot from the perimeter as they have good defense from the outside...the good news is they can't shoot from the perimeter....this game will be decided close in...Duq defense is to block shots...if they can't do that they are in trouble...we need to work the ball in and avoid the blk and we need to keep them away from the basket....also do not foul them unnecessarily...The secret here is we need to have more FTM than Duq....Duq shoots an unbelievable 79.2% from the charity stripe. Here it is in the nutshell...If we take our normal amount of shots and they take theirs ...if we shoot 70% we wipe out their advantage because we normally take more shots....remember we shot 71% last game...so it can be done....Dominate the boards Bills by 7 rebs...TO differential needs to be equal

Bottom line... Again, this game looks close but if we play our game ...we win...maybe by as many as 9....But we have to play smart....if we start taking lots of 3s, if we don't work on their interior defense, If we let  Hughes and Weathers block shots, if we give up a lot of fouls ...we lose....Play smart and we win.....Go Bills

[MusicCityBilliken]

."Why was it a good win...because Jordan makes it a Good Win...sorry I couldn't resist.. "

Wiz, I have to laugh, the Atlanta Hawks play-by-play announcer (name escapes me, he does the games with Dominique Wilkins) had the same expression when Hawks Brandon Goodwin had career game last night against the Magic. Who got it from who? LOL 

[HoosierPal]

I'm not a big proponent of  "we are due", but we have not won at Duquesne since January, 2014.  All time we are 15-15 against Duquesne going back to 1934.

[billikenfan05]

Duquesne is like our UAB from conference USA. Just always seem to struggle at their place. 

[Quality Is Job 1]

47 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

I'm not a big proponent of  "we are due", but we have not won at Duquesne since January, 2014.  All time we are 15-15 against Duquesne going back to 1934.

The disappointing thing that year was the the Bills were able to win at Duquesne and Dayton only to turn around and lose to each squad at home.

[The Wiz]

4 hours ago, tarheelbilliken said:

."Why was it a good win...because Jordan makes it a Good Win...sorry I couldn't resist.. "

Wiz, I have to laugh, the Atlanta Hawks play-by-play announcer (name escapes me, he does the games with Dominique Wilkins) had the same expression when Hawks Brandon Goodwin had career game last night against the Magic. Who got it from who? LOL 

I have not heard the Atlanta broadcaster and I am sure he has not read my posts....The only thing we have in common is Brian and Jordan which coincidentally refers to another St. Louis ball player...Brian Jordan who played for St. Louis (Cards) and Atlanta( Braves & Falcons)

[Pistol]

5 hours ago, billikenfan05 said:

Duquesne is like our UAB from conference USA. Just always seem to struggle at their place. 

And this season "their place" is several different venues around Pittsburgh. We'll be playing them at Robert Morris' gym on Thursday.

I had a feeling their record was fool's gold. I didn't think they'd drop 2 straight before we got them, though. Both teams should be motivated.

[almaman]

2 hours ago, The Wiz said:

I have not heard the Atlanta broadcaster and I am sure he has not read my posts....The only thing we have in common is Brian and Jordan which coincidentally refers to another St. Louis ball player...Brian Jordan who played for St. Louis (Cards) and Atlanta( Braves & Falcons)

spooky

[Taj79]

While  agree on the "fool's gold" take, there is something to be said for trying to instill confidence in borderline teams to get their head's on straight and instill the mental game.  Frankly, I see that in regards to the schedules not only played by Duquesne, but by Fordham, La Salle, Geedubya, Mason and others.  

Thursday's game is at the UPMC Center which seats 4,500. I went to buy tickets and the only seats available are in the top two rows on one side of the court.  In other words, it appears the Duquesne faithful are looking at this game as some sort of validation for Dambrot and Company for their 10 and 2 record. Duquesne's opponents to date have posted a record of 72 and 87 with a winning percentage of .416.  Conversely, our opposition has posted a 86 -75 record for a .534 percentage.  Duquesne is 1 and 0 at UPMC having beaten Lamar there 66 to 56.

French versus Hughes will be interesting.  Putting Bell on Hughes to start should negate that some for us.  French versus Weathers will also be interesting.  In both cases, I say advantage SLU.  Then it's three guards.  Perkins and Hargrove should match up well with Maceo Austin.  Goodwin likely gets Carry with Collins on Dunn-Martin.  Dunn-Martin is only a three point shooter.  On the bench, Bailey Steele is a Euro 4 and Lamar Norman is meh.  We can also send Weaver and Jacobs into the fray, a better advantage than what Duquesne brings.  Some minutes from Thatch could work wonders.  There could even be a role for Hankton here.

[Compton]

Nice that after a couple of weighted neutral site games in Birmingham and KC, we have a legit “away” game that is at a somewhat unfamiliar/inconvenient court for the “home” team. 

[RUBillsFan]

12 hours ago, Taj79 said:

Duquesne is 1 and 0 at UPMC having beaten Lamar there 66 to 56

Their game vs Lamar was played at LaRoche University.  This will be their 1st at UPMC.

[Taj79]

RU --- yep.  you are right.

[billikenblue]

14 hours ago, Taj79 said:

While  agree on the "fool's gold" take, there is something to be said for trying to instill confidence in borderline teams to get their head's on straight and instill the mental game.  Frankly, I see that in regards to the schedules not only played by Duquesne, but by Fordham, La Salle, Geedubya, Mason and others.  

Thursday's game is at the UPMC Center which seats 4,500. I went to buy tickets and the only seats available are in the top two rows on one side of the court.  In other words, it appears the Duquesne faithful are looking at this game as some sort of validation for Dambrot and Company for their 10 and 2 record. Duquesne's opponents to date have posted a record of 72 and 87 with a winning percentage of .416.  Conversely, our opposition has posted a 86 -75 record for a .534 percentage.  Duquesne is 1 and 0 at UPMC having beaten Lamar there 66 to 56.

French versus Hughes will be interesting.  Putting Bell on Hughes to start should negate that some for us.  French versus Weathers will also be interesting.  In both cases, I say advantage SLU.  Then it's three guards.  Perkins and Hargrove should match up well with Maceo Austin.  Goodwin likely gets Carry with Collins on Dunn-Martin.  Dunn-Martin is only a three point shooter.  On the bench, Bailey Steele is a Euro 4 and Lamar Norman is meh.  We can also send Weaver and Jacobs into the fray, a better advantage than what Duquesne brings.  Some minutes from Thatch could work wonders.  There could even be a role for Hankton here.

Taj...just went on Duquesne basketball and there are plenty of tickets available in section 106...mid court...maybe they just opened up some seats if you are thinking of going. 

[Reinert310]

[Taj79]

billikenbill ... yes, found that and thanks.  Seats also in section 105 behind the Bills bench.  Go to goduquene.com/sports/mens-basketball  Seats are $15.  I am awaiting confirmation from traveling partner to see if we are a go.  Otherwise, ESPN+.

 

[billiken_roy]

27 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

billikenbill ... yes, found that and thanks.  Seats also in section 105 behind the Bills bench.  Go to goduquene.com/sports/mens-basketball  Seats are $15.  I am awaiting confirmation from traveling partner to see if we are a go.  Otherwise, ESPN+.

 

We have seats in uecker territory

[Old guy]

Teamrankings just published their Vegas inspired estimated scores for this game, as follows: SLU 65, Duq 68. They are giving a 3 point advantage in favor of Duquesne. Teamrankings confidence level in Duquesne winning is only 1 star, which means this is a shaky estimate. I think this is a game we can win. Go Bills.

[The Wiz]

3 hours ago, Reinert310 said:

From My Be Cook spread thread on Dec 22 .....

Injury Report....Be Cook...none reported

SLU...Jimerson....Out for season....Foot

Thatch....Questionable...Illness....His status is unclear for the next game. This is the official report..................later, as per Ford in an update from last night (Dec 21)....Ford says he will probably not play in the Be Cook game but should be ready after the 1st of the year for conf play.  Could be some good news especially with GJ out.

[The Valley Sucks]

What does anyone make of the line Bills +3.5???? Doesn’t seem good for us.

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, Old guy said:

Teamrankings just published their Vegas inspired estimated scores for this game, as follows: SLU 65, Duq 68. They are giving a 3 point advantage in favor of Duquesne. Teamrankings confidence level in Duquesne winning is only 1 star, which means this is a shaky estimate. I think this is a game we can win. Go Bills.

T Rank is just using the overall stats for the year...which is fine but doesn't allow for trending ....in addition , they are giving Duq  a nice home field advantage...which probably doesn't exist. Duq has one of the worst home field advantages when it is playing at its "real" home arena....2.36 pts...Given this is their 1st game at the new house this year...that whittles that advantage down to almost nothing. 

The real issue though, is the lack of trending ...they assume that the Bills are playing at about the same level as the Fl Gulf Coast game....This game reminds me of the KSU game...Game is played on a "neutral" site ...let's call it  semi friendly...Duq game even though it is the same city....it is a semi friendly site. The NCAA does not consider a location a home game unless a team plays there 3 times in the same season ....Also , both spreads are even....In the headlines of spread threads, I use the overall too.  However when the trend makes a difference , I point it out.. In  the earlier  game KSU and The Bills were  both rated B...and the trend grade showed a wide separation....The Bills at A- and KSU at C. Same as this game with Duq...The Bills at A- and the Dukes at C.

Trending is important in this game not just because we have a decided advantage but because in an even game ...this can be the difference maker...Duq is coming off of terrible game...they got bombed (22pts) by Marshall (C- ) ...While some will argue  that the Dukes will be hopping mad and come after us...it isn't that easy to turn on momentum....In the back of their mind they know they got bombed by a below average team. Call it what you like...trend or momentum...if The Bills have a decent game things could be looking up because in a month, we will play them at the Fetz where we have a decided home field advantage.

[Old guy]

I agree teamrankings is not the top analytical place they claim to be. That said they provide a standard way of reporting which applies to everyone with the same flaws. I agree with you we have the advantage in this game and should win it unless the team goes to play convinced this will be a total cakewalk. I do not think they can win this game, but we can lose it.

[Bay Area Billiken]

On 12/31/2019 at 6:27 PM, Taj79 said:

While  agree on the "fool's gold" take, there is something to be said for trying to instill confidence in borderline teams to get their head's on straight and instill the mental game.  Frankly, I see that in regards to the schedules not only played by Duquesne, but by Fordham, La Salle, Geedubya, Mason and others.  

Thursday's game is at the UPMC Center which seats 4,500. I went to buy tickets and the only seats available are in the top two rows on one side of the court.  In other words, it appears the Duquesne faithful are looking at this game as some sort of validation for Dambrot and Company for their 10 and 2 record. Duquesne's opponents to date have posted a record of 72 and 87 with a winning percentage of .416.  Conversely, our opposition has posted a 86 -75 record for a .534 percentage.  Duquesne is 1 and 0 at UPMC having beaten Lamar there 66 to 56.

French versus Hughes will be interesting.  Putting Bell on Hughes to start should negate that some for us.  French versus Weathers will also be interesting.  In both cases, I say advantage SLU.  Then it's three guards.  Perkins and Hargrove should match up well with Maceo Austin.  Goodwin likely gets Carry with Collins on Dunn-Martin.  Dunn-Martin is only a three point shooter.  On the bench, Bailey Steele is a Euro 4 and Lamar Norman is meh.  We can also send Weaver and Jacobs into the fray, a better advantage than what Duquesne brings.  Some minutes from Thatch could work wonders.  There could even be a role for Hankton here.

To Win, SLU needs to stay out of foul trouble, and SLU needs to shoot a respectable percentage at the FT Line.

SLU has had turnover problems vs. Duquesne in the past.  Also, some nondescript Dukes have risen from the pines in the past to torch SLU.

It's conference time, and the level of opposition coaching and scouting is enhanced.  It may or may not be tonight in Moon Township (what a fine name on multiple levels), Pennsylvania, but I expect SLU is going to be seeing upcoming healthy doses of East Coast Zone Defenses, lots of them.  And watch for Hack-a-French "Defenses" too.

[billiken_roy]

29 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

watch for Hack-a-French "Defenses" too.

totally agree with this.   i think we saw some of that last game including hack-a-goodwin.   goodwin rose to the occasion, but it will likely take a few more good games from the line from goodwin before our opponents buy in he is fixed (which i also havent bought in yet).  french isnt even close to becoming a better free throw shooter imo.   i cringe when he gets a whistle. 

[slu72]

29 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

 

It's conference time, and the level of opposition coaching and scouting is enhanced.  It may or may not be tonight in Moon Township (what a fine name on multiple levels), Pennsylvania, but I expect SLU is going to be seeing upcoming healthy doses of East Coast Zone Defenses, lots of them.  And watch for Hack-a-French "Defenses" too.

This is where we're really going to miss Gibby. You could see in the games he played in after he established he was a legit 3 pt threat that teams had done their homework and the inside became more open for French and JGood to do their damage. We are going to need Jacobs, Weaver, and Perkins to really step up and provide some outside shots to keep things honest. Otherwise, we're going to see teams putting 4 guys down in the trenches in what will resemble a WWE match. 

[Pistol]

Good Hochman article this morning on Goodwin. Goodwin's quotes carry it. He's such a likeable dude.