The OOC Review from da' Couch in Maryland

[Old guy]

Nice post Clock. I want to emphasize a couple of things besides what you and Taj posted:

1. The trend for the Bills is decidedly up. Let's look at it this way. We lost two important players, Jimerson, for the rest of the season, and Thatch, hopefully for a period of time that is coming to a close soon. Hankton has proven to be a player for which we had great expectations, that has had issues and has failed to perform to the expected level. Despite these losses, the Bills have managed to win the last three games, including the Kansas St. game, a game that presented significant challenges to us. 

2. We achieved these victories with Freshmen coming out of our bench to fill the gaps. Hargrove, Weaver, Perkins (not a Freshman but new to the Bills and D1), and Bell have done a great job plugging the gaps produced by the losses listed above. Even better, most of these kids are just starting their D1 basketball careers, and have shown visible improvement with each game they play. Please note that I do not mention Yuri who is also a Freshman but who I consider as one of our main line players.

3. Ford has done a magnificent job with these kids getting them out to play and be a winning team. We have every reason to expect that the improvement will continue as the conference season progresses.

Considering the trend taking place within our team at this time, I think my estimate of 25-6  record by the end of conference play is very reasonable. The projections for this team, as these kids mature are very high. We are on our way.

[RiseAndGrind]

13 hours ago, Taj79 said:

R&G ---- I temper starting with one word, AaronHines.  Demarius is almost a complete unknown.  Yes there were the Valpo and Tulane games but that's 38 of his 92 points.  Meaning the other 11 he is scoring only about 5 ppg.  His talent is obvious; he just disappears too much for my liking.

Yeah I’m not saying he’s perfect but i was thinking B- not C-. Oh well, fun to grade a team when they are 11-2! Everyone gets a good grade 

[Clock_Tower]

The reason for the C- grade is bc of the trend line of his production. Unexpected starter, showed us he can knock down the 3, showed us PG skills, but has disappeared of late as his better games were earlier -  all while Thatch has not played and Jimerson been out. 

[Taj79]

CT --- no arguments here.  Good analysis.  Focused on the positive aspect of it all.  I certainly agree having Fred Thatch going forward is key.  There will be another injury or two ---- French and Collins are already banged up --- so having someone like Fred available and ready will be only a positive.

I really believe we are a 'Top Four' team in the A10 but as history shows, the A10 never goes the way you expect, dating to our first season where we somehow finished #4.  Conference cannibalism will occur, it always does.  Right no, with the A10 on the brink, my goal,much like being plus-3 in the OOC, rests solely on that finish. I'm going to review the A10 to date based on the games I've seen so far in another thread so thoughts will be reflected there.

[Littlebill]

10 hours ago, HoosierPal said:

Neutral court.  K State's home court is in Manhattan KS.  This game was in KC.  KSU was the 'home team' but it counts, in the NET ratings, as a N game. I read that KSU took care of the game administration, so there is where the confusion might have been. 

Same situation with Auburn, which played our N game 100 miles from their home court.  Manhattan to KC is about 135 miles.

https://bracketologists.com/team/saint-louis-billikens?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

This link also shows 10 future Q1 and Q2 possible games.  Those totals may/will change as the season progresses. And has been discussed, several Q3 games could move up to Q2.

 

 

It was officially a road game, per kunderman 

thx for explains what a road game is though. Really helps us all who aren’t as bright as you HP

[HoosierPal]

11 minutes ago, Littlebill said:

thx for explains what a road game is though. Really helps us all who aren’t as bright as you HP

You are welcome.

 

 

[brianstl]

7 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

The NCAA has it as a Neutral Court game.  So take your pick.  It's their ranking, their tourney, so maybe they trump.

In other news, Seton Hall moved up to Q1 with their win last night so now we are 0-2 in Q1 and 0-0 in Q2.

https://bracketologists.com/team/saint-louis-billikens?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

The NCAA has it as a road game. In the NET rankings on their site they have our neutral court record as 1-1 (win against Tulane, loss to Auburn) and our road record at 2-0 (wins against BC and KSU).

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

[HoosierPal]

7 minutes ago, brianstl said:

The NCAA has it as a road game. In the NET rankings on their site they have our neutral court record as 1-1 (win against Tulane, loss to Auburn) and our road record at 2-0 (wins against BC and KSU).

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

Well that is good news.  I stand corrected.  I will take the NCAA website over a third party.

Go to #60.  Also listed are the upcoming games, as they now stand. We have to do some damage on the road.

https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats Library/NET Team Sheets - Dec. 29, 2019.pdf

 

[bauman]

22 minutes ago, brianstl said:

The NCAA has it as a road game. In the NET rankings on their site they have our neutral court record as 1-1 (win against Tulane, loss to Auburn) and our road record at 2-0 (wins against BC and KSU).

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

Only two A 10 teams ahead of us and we get the closest one (VCU) at home.  Can you spell NCAA?

Again, I think we will find out a lot about our team in the @ DUQ game, Thursday.  It is hard for me to factor in the loss of Jimerson (with one M) but the hoped for addition of FT Jr.  I still see losses to UD twice, Richmond and URI in the conference.

[DoctorB]

I agree that just about everyone has equaled or exceeded my expectations.  I knew Perkins would emerge, and become a fan favorite, because he was always scoring in practices and was a fun kid to watch.  I imagine he will get better and better, even as this season plays out; probably giving us one or 2 30-point nights (I'm hoping here...).  Bell is also improving steadily.  Bell does change the game around him, even if the stats do not always reflect that.  Jacobs is also much improved and a steady hand.  The team is honestly ahead of where I predicted -- even without GJ and FT.

I want to stress my respect and admiration for Coach Ford and staff here.  Players keep getting better and better--long term, under Ford.  We saw it with Bess, and now look at French and Goodwin.  Yes they were both good as freshmen; but now they are A10 studs.  Goodwin got 16 boards the other day, yet again -- and it hardly creates a buzz anymore, that's how good he has become.  As for French--his dominant dunks Sunday night were jaw-dropping.  I'm saying all this to give credit to good coaching and extremely competitive practices, (with a full group of players--remember last year when they struggled to go 5 against 5???); but also to suggest that if you think Perkins, Bell, GJ, YC, TJH, and others have improved in 2 months -- wait till 2 years from now.  As for Hankton -- he has time to improve too and remember he will be a senior one of these days; but every top-25 program has excellent players that need to get better if they want more (or any) minutes.  And ps --Hightower brings a lot to the practices too, and got rewarded for sheer effort the other night while the game was on the line.  It's a hungry group with no obvious head cases--finally.  We are in for a fun few years here, folks...HNY to all!

[RiseAndGrind]

Speaking of Perkins - HOW is his 3point shooting so bad???

[billiken_roy]

15 minutes ago, bauman said:

Only two A 10 teams ahead of us and we get the closest one (VCU) at home.  Can you spell NCAA?

Again, I think we will find out a lot about our team in the @ DUQ game, Thursday.  It is hard for me to factor in the loss of Jimerson (with one M) but the hoped for addition of FT Jr.  I still see losses to UD twice, Richmond and URI in the conference.

right now if the season ended today and assuming dayton won the A10 tourney.  they would be the only A10 team in the tourney using the NET system.    we have a LOT of ground to climb up to have any sort of a chance at a spot beyond the A10 tourney.   only Dayton is in any sort of position to claim an at large berth.    

as mentioned above, we have to win road games and not stumble at home imo and even then, i am doubting we can go up 20+ spots to be in a discussion.    definitely would require dayton win(s) and no upset losses.  

[Littlebill]

9 minutes ago, RiseAndGrind said:

Speaking of Perkins - HOW is his 3point shooting so bad???

If Ford is continuing to let him shoot, you have to think he is lights out in practice and gameplay has been the outlier thus far

[wgstl]

7 minutes ago, RiseAndGrind said:

Speaking of Perkins - HOW is his 3point shooting so bad???

My guess is that he had the 3 point shot, just has to find it again.  I dont see how a non 3 point shooter is allowed to take as many as he does. 

 

Crazy that over the last 6 games hes averaging like 16 ppg. 

[willie]

40 minutes ago, DoctorB said:

I agree that just about everyone has equaled or exceeded my expectations.  I knew Perkins would emerge, and become a fan favorite, because he was always scoring in practices and was a fun kid to watch.  I imagine he will get better and better, even as this season plays out; probably giving us one or 2 30-point nights (I'm hoping here...).  Bell is also improving steadily.  Bell does change the game around him, even if the stats do not always reflect that.  Jacobs is also much improved and a steady hand.  The team is honestly ahead of where I predicted -- even without GJ and FT.

I want to stress my respect and admiration for Coach Ford and staff here.  Players keep getting better and better--long term, under Ford.  We saw it with Bess, and now look at French and Goodwin.  Yes they were both good as freshmen; but now they are A10 studs.  Goodwin got 16 boards the other day, yet again -- and it hardly creates a buzz anymore, that's how good he has become.  As for French--his dominant dunks Sunday night were jaw-dropping.  I'm saying all this to give credit to good coaching and extremely competitive practices, (with a full group of players--remember last year when they struggled to go 5 against 5???); but also to suggest that if you think Perkins, Bell, GJ, YC, TJH, and others have improved in 2 months -- wait till 2 years from now.  As for Hankton -- he has time to improve too and remember he will be a senior one of these days; but every top-25 program has excellent players that need to get better if they want more (or any) minutes.  And ps --Hightower brings a lot to the practices too, and got rewarded for sheer effort the other night while the game was on the line.  It's a hungry group with no obvious head cases--finally.  We are in for a fun few years here, folks...HNY to all!

Hightower did a better job of stopping dribble penetration then anyone else. Would have stayed in the game where it not for his air ball three. 

[wgstl]

1 minute ago, willie said:

Hightower did a better job of stopping dribble penetration then anyone else. Would have stayed in the game where it not for his air ball three. 

but he also guarded the wrong person  twice, and didnt move off of a weird screen(?)

[CBFan]

1 hour ago, DoctorB said:

I agree that just about everyone has equaled or exceeded my expectations.  I knew Perkins would emerge, and become a fan favorite, because he was always scoring in practices and was a fun kid to watch.  I imagine he will get better and better, even as this season plays out; probably giving us one or 2 30-point nights (I'm hoping here...).  Bell is also improving steadily.  Bell does change the game around him, even if the stats do not always reflect that.  Jacobs is also much improved and a steady hand.  The team is honestly ahead of where I predicted -- even without GJ and FT.

I want to stress my respect and admiration for Coach Ford and staff here.  Players keep getting better and better--long term, under Ford.  We saw it with Bess, and now look at French and Goodwin.  Yes they were both good as freshmen; but now they are A10 studs.  Goodwin got 16 boards the other day, yet again -- and it hardly creates a buzz anymore, that's how good he has become.  As for French--his dominant dunks Sunday night were jaw-dropping.  I'm saying all this to give credit to good coaching and extremely competitive practices, (with a full group of players--remember last year when they struggled to go 5 against 5???); but also to suggest that if you think Perkins, Bell, GJ, YC, TJH, and others have improved in 2 months -- wait till 2 years from now.  As for Hankton -- he has time to improve too and remember he will be a senior one of these days; but every top-25 program has excellent players that need to get better if they want more (or any) minutes.  And ps --Hightower brings a lot to the practices too, and got rewarded for sheer effort the other night while the game was on the line.  It's a hungry group with no obvious head cases--finally.  We are in for a fun few years here, folks...HNY to all!

Do you know if Fred Thatch is going to return?

[Quality Is Job 1]

3 hours ago, billiken_roy said:

right now if the season ended today and assuming dayton won the A10 tourney.  they would be the only A10 team in the tourney using the NET system.    we have a LOT of ground to climb up to have any sort of a chance at a spot beyond the A10 tourney.   only Dayton is in any sort of position to claim an at large berth.    

as mentioned above, we have to win road games and not stumble at home imo and even then, i am doubting we can go up 20+ spots to be in a discussion.    definitely would require dayton win(s) and no upset losses.  

But you can't really consider the A-10's at-large potential in a vacuum.  The other conferences have teams that have work to do, as well.  The Committee still needs to fill out a 68-team field; who's to say that, if the selections were made today, other A-10 teams besides Dayton haven't done well enough compared to all the other conferences' teams to get an at-large bid?

[Bracketologists]

7 hours ago, HoosierPal said:

Well that is good news.  I stand corrected.  I will take the NCAA website over a third party.

Go to #60.  Also listed are the upcoming games, as they now stand. We have to do some damage on the road.

https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats Library/NET Team Sheets - Dec. 29, 2019.pdf

 

We have updated the game to an Away game because the NCAA has it classified as that but this does create some really strange scenarios as we've reviewed the NCAA data. Prior to today, all of the Home/Away/Neutral data came from ESPN and all of that data seemed to make sense. We found 12 situations where our records didn't match up with the NCAA though and reviewed each of them.

We found a team that played 3 games in an arena in their home town. 2 were considered neutral, 1 was considered home. No reasoning as to why they were classified that way, just that they were. 

There were also 3 or 4 situations where the game took place over 120 miles away from either teams arenas yet they were considered home games.

There was one scenario where a game took place in an arena within 50 miles of both schools playing. It was listed as a home game for the team that was further away.

In my opinion, a home game happens at the home arena of a team or at least within 20 miles of campus. I'm not sure what the NCAA considers a home/away/neutral game though based on the oddities listed above so we're just going with what they have from here on out.

[Clock_Tower]

8 minutes ago, Bracketologists said:

We have updated the game to an Away game because the NCAA has it classified as that but this does create some really strange scenarios as we've reviewed the NCAA data. Prior to today, all of the Home/Away/Neutral data came from ESPN and all of that data seemed to make sense. We found 12 situations where our records didn't match up with the NCAA though and reviewed each of them.

We found a team that played 3 games in an arena in their home town. 2 were considered neutral, 1 was considered home. No reasoning as to why they were classified that way, just that they were. 

There were also 3 or 4 situations where the game took place over 120 miles away from either teams arenas yet they were considered home games.

There was one scenario where a game took place in an arena within 50 miles of both schools playing. It was listed as a home game for the team that was further away.

In my opinion, a home game happens at the home arena of a team or at least within 20 miles of campus. I'm not sure what the NCAA considers a home/away/neutral game though based on the oddities listed above so we're just going with what they have from here on out.

IMO, location is probably the single biggest factor; however, doesn't the NCAA also factor in items such as:  selection of the officials, marketing/production rights of the game, etc.

[HoosierPal]

26 minutes ago, Bracketologists said:

We have updated the game to an Away game because the NCAA has it classified as that but this does create some really strange scenarios as we've reviewed the NCAA data. Prior to today, all of the Home/Away/Neutral data came from ESPN and all of that data seemed to make sense. We found 12 situations where our records didn't match up with the NCAA though and reviewed each of them.

We found a team that played 3 games in an arena in their home town. 2 were considered neutral, 1 was considered home. No reasoning as to why they were classified that way, just that they were. 

There were also 3 or 4 situations where the game took place over 120 miles away from either teams arenas yet they were considered home games.

There was one scenario where a game took place in an arena within 50 miles of both schools playing. It was listed as a home game for the team that was further away.

In my opinion, a home game happens at the home arena of a team or at least within 20 miles of campus. I'm not sure what the NCAA considers a home/away/neutral game though based on the oddities listed above so we're just going with what they have from here on out.

Thanks for this information Brackets.  This could develop into an interesting scenario in March.  Would the committee look at these 12 games, particularly for a bubble team, and make a 'correction'?  It would be a way for them to slide out a mid-major and put a P5 team in.

[JohnnyJumpUp]

7 hours ago, wgstl said:

My guess is that he had the 3 point shot, just has to find it again.  I dont see how a non 3 point shooter is allowed to take as many as he does. 

 

Crazy that over the last 6 games hes averaging like 16 ppg. 

Maybe he did have a 3pt shot, but it hasn't shown up yet, 12 for 46 on the year. He needs to give some of those shots to Weaver or Jacobs. I love his aggressiveness and the way he takes the ball to the basket, but he needs to limit those 3's and give his teammates half of those shots.

[Quality Is Job 1]

20 minutes ago, JohnnyJumpUp said:

Maybe he did have a 3pt shot, but it hasn't shown up yet, 12 for 46 on the year. He needs to give some of those shots to Weaver or Jacobs. I love his aggressiveness and the way he takes the ball to the basket, but he needs to limit those 3's and give his teammates half of those shots.

The increased distance may be affecting him.

[HoosierPal]

33 minutes ago, JohnnyJumpUp said:

Maybe he did have a 3pt shot, but it hasn't shown up yet, 12 for 46 on the year. He needs to give some of those shots to Weaver or Jacobs. I love his aggressiveness and the way he takes the ball to the basket, but he needs to limit those 3's and give his teammates half of those shots.

 

13 minutes ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

The increased distance may be affecting him.

The JUCO stats I have from last season, which may or may not be complete, show Perkins with a 42.6% 3FG.  Shot 61 and made 26 in 28 games.  It also shows a 81.4% FT, which is where he is trending.

[slufanskip]

1 hour ago, Bracketologists said:

We have updated the game to an Away game because the NCAA has it classified as that but this does create some really strange scenarios as we've reviewed the NCAA data. Prior to today, all of the Home/Away/Neutral data came from ESPN and all of that data seemed to make sense. We found 12 situations where our records didn't match up with the NCAA though and reviewed each of them.

We found a team that played 3 games in an arena in their home town. 2 were considered neutral, 1 was considered home. No reasoning as to why they were classified that way, just that they were. 

There were also 3 or 4 situations where the game took place over 120 miles away from either teams arenas yet they were considered home games.

There was one scenario where a game took place in an arena within 50 miles of both schools playing. It was listed as a home game for the team that was further away.

In my opinion, a home game happens at the home arena of a team or at least within 20 miles of campus. I'm not sure what the NCAA considers a home/away/neutral game though based on the oddities listed above so we're just going with what they have from here on out.

So you are saying a Midwest team plays Florida in Jacksonville it shouldn't be a home game for Florida? It certainly more of a home game than a neutral game