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The Bills and K State EVEN...revised


The Wiz

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3 minutes ago, BilliesBy40 said:

Perkins is shooting 26% from 3. 

I hear ya. He did go 3-6 last game. He’s a decent shooter from outside. Hoping his 3 point shot starts becoming more consistent.  

Also, maybe Yuri starts taking a few more. He’s made a decent %age with a small sample.

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2 hours ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

Well, @The Wiz and @Taj79, now that I've learned this game is considered a home game for Kansas State, rather than a neutral site game, does the line change?  K-State by 3, perhaps?

This was definitely a neutral game.  Just because KSU declares it a home game doesn't make it one for handicapping purposes. I wrote the original post last Sunday and when you pointed in out it was going to be in KC instead of Manhattan, KS...I didn't give it a second thought ,   I immediately changed (revised ) my spread to even. ...

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Well Wiz, the Bills won today meaning they went over your spread, and apparently the Vegas betting spread had changed to  2 pts in favor of K State a couple of hours prior to the game, so we beat that as well. This is a very sweet victory for the Bills right before Christmas. All is well

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Even was a good call on this game....other than the first few minutes when the Bills got off to a great start this game was about as even as you could get.  ...Score tied 14 times...lead changed hand 18 time....that is what is defined as even.

Let's look at what happened .

From my original post.....

WWN2D2W....Stop Sneed and Diarra (their Diarra ...not ours)...hold them to less than 20 pts combined....Hold KSU to 66 pts...Dominate the boards by 9...win the TO battle....make some shots...48/36/ 56

Stop Sneed and Diarra...........Yes...17 pts combined ...excellent...

Hold KSU to 66 pts..................Done...again excellent

Dominate the boards by 9.......fail ...in fact we lost by 1...a good job by KSU

Win the TO battle......................always one of my fav stats...Yes by 3 TOs...this was worth 6 pts....the difference in the game.

Make some shots..48/36/56...Another yes....actual 51/36/60...it was so important to shoot decent...this was not a historic line ...this is what we needed to do to win ...and we did.

2 other important stats this game 2nd chance pts....we win 9-3...a difference maker.....also steals (see TOs above )..again we win 11-6

Also from my original post

Bottom line...This will be a low scoring, frustrating and painful game because of missed shots and opportunities...However......I think we can gain the edge here..for the following 2 reasons....1)    they have a couple of injuries...KSU is a team that can't afford to lose any players.... 2) ... the hidden stat....While these 2 evenly matched teams show an overall grade of B.....The trend line shows KSU  as a C team....and the Blls as an A- team....translating into The Bills over KSU by 10.

I think the key to the game was #2...the hidden stat...most forecasters...Vegas  , team stats , ESPN etc just look at the overall stats plug them in to the computer and come out around even....but the trend line  (which is important  because we are a young and improving team) is most important the BIlls...in this case the Bills were trending up and KSU was trending down.  KSU played very well tonight ...above their head on the slash line....they made an extra two 3's (44%) and an extra 5 FTs (87%)=11 extra pts....I would argue that if KSU had a "normal" night...we would have won not by 10...but would have blown them out by 14 pts.

This was a great win. The game learning experiences of SH and Aub paid off tonight....a tight game in  hostile territory and the BIlls didn't crack.

If Thatch is able to return  (which it looks like he will soon ) plus we continue to grow and improve....things could look bright in the coming weeks.

 

billikenbill, dennis_w and Zink like this
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