The Wiz Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 I am changing the spread to EVEN to reflect a neutral court. Wait ....Did I miss a game?...No...I don't do ...Div 2... For those that have to know....The Bills over Maryville....easily. As for the Aub game...It was a game where some good things happened and some bad things happened ...overall a learning experience that showed we are improving. For a detailed post game analysis see the Aub spread thread. On to Kan St ...a game that will be very challenging and interesting due to some strange quirks. First , let's start with the fact that K St is a bottom feeder but not because they are a bad team...To the contrary, they are the worst team in an A+ league...one of the top 2 leagues in Div 1 . What that means is you can be a B team and still finish last in the B12. In fact , they are ranked the same as the Bills (also B ) and match up well on a neutral court . But K ST is not just a plain vanilla B team.... Let's take a look at the report card... ..............................SLU.............................KSU.............................................SLU...................................KSU ................................................OFF................................................................................DEF............... PPG.........................C................................D-...............................................B+.....................................B+ FG%.........................C+..............................D+.......................................... ..A-........................................A- 3Pt%........................B-...............................C-...............................................D-.......................................B- FT%.........................F-... Worst ITN...........D-............................................................................................. Reb.........................A+....8th ITN...............D.................................................C........................................C OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF rebs = opp reb Bills Offensive reb....A+....5th ITN Change from last game (UP means improvement ...Down means worse)....UP ..Def FG%...Reb & off reb (not in grade but in ranking)..... DOWN.....PPG...FG%...3P%...opp reb Even though FT% went down...I can't go lower than F- or worst ITN...sad Top 100 ITN Stls....Goodwin ...98th.....down Assts...Collins....34th...down Rebs...Goodwin...8th.....French...20th...up and up Blks.....French....20th...down Assts...C. Diarra (KSU)...17th Stls...C. Diarra (KSU)...48th Injuries....KSU...Shadd...12/15/19...Questionable... unspecified injury.....Murphy...12/8/19...out....knee injury....Love III...12/15/19 ...Questionable...foot injury ................The Bills nothing to report So here is what we have in KSU...One of the worst offenses we will face this year, especially for a major team with a good grade....AND one of the best defenses.we will see. And again as in the Auburn game, we will see 2 bad shooting FT teams. WWN2D2W....Stop Sneed and Diarra (their Diarra ...not ours)...hold them to less than 20 pts combined....Hold KSU to 66 pts...Dominate the boards by 9...win the TO battle....make some shots...48/36/ 56 Bottom line...This will be a low scoring, frustrating and painful game because of missed shots and opportunities...However......I think we can gain the edge here..for the following 2 reasons....1) they have a couple of injuries...KSU is a team that can't afford to lose any players.... 2) ... the hidden stat....While these 2 evenly matched teams show an overall grade of B.....The trend line shows KSU as a C team....and the Blls as an A- team....translating into The Bills over KSU by 10. Keep trending...Go Bills.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 My schedule says the game is in Kansas City, so not a home game for EMAW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spoon-Balls Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 I still don't understand how we can be this historically bad at FT's.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Filling in the blank on the game Wiz doesn't count, Maryville is 3-4 with their big win over St. Louis College of Pharmacy 77-61. The Fighting Eutechics gave it everything they had, but fell short to the Eagles. Maryville plays Principia Monday, and SLU Tuesday. Maryville has two players from Sikeston, so Thatch will have some friends to greet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheChosenOne Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 I'm feeling really confident in us winning this one, I might have to throw some $ on our Billikens. Wait, do you have the Billikens by 4 or Kansas State by 6? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 16, 2019 Author Share Posted December 16, 2019 47 minutes ago, Quality Is Job 1 said: My schedule says the game is in Kansas City, so not a home game for EMAW. Fixed....I had an old schedule that said at KSU...Thx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 16, 2019 Author Share Posted December 16, 2019 29 minutes ago, TheChosenOne said: I'm feeling really confident in us winning this one, I might have to throw some $ on our Billikens. Wait, do you have the Billikens by 4 or Kansas State by 6? Even for the overall spread ...Bills by 10 on the trending line....Trending line weights the more recent games heavier than the earlier games like FGCU game. TheChosenOne likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 16, 2019 Author Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 hour ago, Spoon-Balls said: I still don't understand how we can be this historically bad at FT's.... it is historic....I went back 22 years and by far the worst FT shooting team was Prairie A &M in 2012 with a 54.2%....the only team in the last 22 years to drop below 55%...We are currently at 52.5%...a long way to go till the end of the season....but we need to start sinking some shots. An interesting link from last year https://247sports.com/college/kansas-state/Article/Kansas-State-basketball-Bruce-Weber-free-throw-shooting-127539606/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BJK Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 RPI??? With all of the multitude of rankings is this not really considered a legit ranking system any longer? I only ask because Auburn is now #1 and we come in at 40! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3star_recruit Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 I understand what Wiz is saying about trendlines but Kansas State's backs are against the wall. They have to win this game or the dream of an at-large bid is effectively over. They're either going to give us their best game of the season or roll over. It's really tough to measure a team's collective will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiseAndGrind Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said: I understand what Wiz is saying about trendlines but Kansas State's backs are against the wall. They have to win this game or the dream of an at-large bid is effectively over. They're either going to give us their best game of the season or roll over. It's really tough to measure a team's collective will. We are definitely getting their best game of the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheChosenOne Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Looking at Pomeroy this morning, Kansas State is currently at #79 (#193 in adjusted offensive efficiency and #24 in adjusted defensive efficiency). As comparison, Belmont is #82 (and kind of the inverse with an adjusted offensive efficiency ranking of #46 and an adjusted defensive efficiency ranking of #124). Based on Pomeroy, we are rather comparable to Kansas State. We currently sit at #98 (#171 offense/#59 defense). And in adjusted tempo we are #244 and Kansas State is #210. On paper it doesn't line up to be a pretty game, but certainly a fairly even matchup. Maybe the first to 60 wins? The Wiz mentioned injuries, it appears that their injuries are all to post players (James Love (6'11"/240 forward), Nigel Shadd (6'9"/250 forward), and Montavious Murphy (6'9"/215 forward)). I am finding the first two guys listed as questionable for Saturday although neither appear to be significant contributors, but Murphy who appears to be the biggest contributor of the three is out indefinitely. Not sure if there are other guys who are fighting injuries for them, that was just from a quick Google search. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 16, 2019 Author Share Posted December 16, 2019 I thought with a little extra time time today due to a snow day, it would be interesting to explore the trend line.... This isn't something I frequently post about UNLESS there is a discrepancy between the overall grade and the trend game...i.e. where the regular grade differs from the trend grade.... In this particular game there is a double discrepancy ....SLU trending up from B to A- and KSU trending down B to C...As I mentioned in the opening post, even though the The Bills and KSU are even, the trend spread shows Bills by 10. So which spread to use? Let's look at KSU's last 2 significant games....Miss St and Marquette...there is a 3rd game in between that is insignificant...AL St (F Rated) Again KSU grades are..................... B ............and ..........C ..................................................Overall grade............trend grade.......Game forecast...............Trend forecast...................actual................... diff from overall.........diff from trend Miss St @ neutral 12/14..................A-..............................B+..................MSU by 3....................MSU by 7..........................MSU by 6.........................3.................................1 Marq @ KSU 12/7.............................A-..............................A-...................Even...........................Marq by 7.........................Marq by 8........................8.................................1 So in the end...the trend ....is your friend. I think this too, is why you see wild swings in the rating services....because of the discrepancies and how each service uses their data. billikenbill and slufanskip like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 44 minutes ago, The Wiz said: I thought with a little extra time time today due to a snow day, it would be interesting to explore the trend line.... This isn't something I frequently post about UNLESS there is a discrepancy between the overall grade and the trend game...i.e. where the regular grade differs from the trend grade.... In this particular game there is a double discrepancy ....SLU trending up from B to A- and KSU trending down B to C...As I mentioned in the opening post, even though the The Bills and KSU are even, the trend spread shows Bills by 10. So which spread to use? Let's look at KSU's last 2 significant games....Miss St and Marquette...there is a 3rd game in between that is insignificant...AL St (F Rated) Again KSU grades are..................... B ............and ..........C ..................................................Overall grade............trend grade.......Game forecast...............Trend forecast...................actual................... diff from overall.........diff from trend Miss St @ neutral 12/14..................A-..............................B+..................MSU by 3....................MSU by 7..........................MSU by 6.........................3.................................1 Marq @ KSU 12/7.............................A-..............................A-...................Even...........................Marq by 7.........................Marq by 8........................8.................................1 So in the end...the trend ....is your friend. I think this too, is why you see wild swings in the rating services....because of the discrepancies and how each service uses their data. -good stuff, thank you Wiz -not to hijack a thread, I can imagine Bilas and the other P5 biased folks finding trend ratings as another way to keep "the little guys" out of the tourney Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Look, let's be reasonable here. The NCAA adopted the NET system of ranking and dumped RPI, the results based upon prior RPI years are not comparable with the results based upon NET years. We have a team composed primarily of freshmen, with 3 experienced SLU players presently playing. How to figure out who and how will our freshmen will contribute to the overall effort is beyond their capabilities, they just cannot estimate this. So we are largely unknown and come from a multi year span of mediocrity at best. Not the makings of a winning team, is it? However we are a winning team, and like it or not and we will proceed to demonstrate how much of a winning team we are as the season continues. Before the end of the official season, that will be the time to look back and say, "Hey, SLU was really pretty good and un apreciated for most of the year." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 By my count, it is Wednesday morning as of now. Are we all going to be scared to death about Saturday's game being lost if French or Jimerson or both are not ready to play? Are we going to be upset about Hargrove potentially playing Saturday? Life is too short for this, it will be what it will be. We may still win this game next Saturday without either Jimerson or French playing. There is no use in spending the time working on developing ulcers right before Christmas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidnark Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 I would be shocked if French doesn't play Saturday. I don't know about Gibson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box and Won Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 We need a full complement of players to take this guy down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willie Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 1 hour ago, davidnark said: I would be shocked if French doesn't play Saturday. I don't know about Gibson. I think French wanted to play. Probably would have if it wasn't Maryville. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Frank just said on PB that French ready for KSU and Gibby out for awhile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billikenbooster Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 26 minutes ago, almaman said: KSU Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 52 minutes ago, almaman said: Frank just said on PB that French ready for KSU and Gibby out for awhile. ughhhhhhhhh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moytoy12 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 57 minutes ago, almaman said: Frank just said on PB that French ready for KSU and Gibby out for awhile. This sucks. I guess the only thing to say is that we need French more than GJ (not a knock against GJ). The 2/3 spot is at least where we have some depth. I expect Perkins to suck up a lot of those GJ minutes, with some going to TJ as well. Littlebill likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiseAndGrind Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Great. Knew things were going too well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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