The Wiz's A-10 Forecast with Real Data

[The Wiz]

With Duq finally playing its 8th game (last team in the A-10 to reach 8 ) this gives me enough data to make another forecast.  In addition , I have included 2 other report cards.  The 1st column , is the overall grade and can vary by 2 notches. For example, SLU  with a grade of B ( 67% chance to make the NIT)  can vary  from  A-  (NCAA bid ) to C+ ( no bids ) by the end of the season. At the end of the OOC schedule ....I will forecast again ....this time the variance will only be 1 notch.  Column 2 is the trending column.  ...with most recent games weighted heavier than earlier games....shows how teams are doing now....good info on new, young,  developing teams who may be growing as the season progresses....Finally , column 3 is the SOS....It is valuable at this point of the season because it  shows how valid the overall grade is.  For instance,  Dayton's  A  looks pretty solid  when coupled with  its B  SOS.   While Duq's  B+  is a bit suspect when coupled with it's F  SOS....Doesn't mean they aren't a good team...just means ,  I need more data to verify....By the end of OOC there will be enough data to make a determination.

 

.................................Overall......................Trending..................................................SOS.....................................................Curr record

Day..............................A..................................A+.......................................................B...............NCAA....................................7-1

VCU..............................A-................................B+.......................................................D+............NCAA......................................7-2

Duq..............................B+...............................B+........................................................F..............NIT............................................8-0

Rich.............................B+................................A-.........................................................D+...........NIT...........................................8-1

SLU..............................B..................................A-.........................................................D..............67% NIT...................................8-1

Dav..............................B...................................B-........................................................A-..............67%  NIT..................................4-5

RI..................................B................................B+..........................................................B+..............67% NIT.................................6-3

LaS...............................B-................................B...........................................................B+.............................................................5-3

GM...............................C+................................B+..........................................................F+...........................................................10-1

St. B.............................C+.................................B............................................................D+............................................................5-4

UMass.........................C...................................D+..........................................................C...............................................................5-5

Ford.............................D+.................................C-............................................................F-....easiest sched ITN...........................5-3

St. J.............................D+..................................F+.............................................................B.............................................................2-8

GW...............................D.....................................C.............................................................F..............................................................5-5

 

At least 10 of the 14 teams have a chance to make post  season play  (min C+  now ).   In the B category....The Bills , Dav and RI ...2 teams should make it to NIT.    I will do this again in 3 weeks ...by then, there will be a lot more data and things will be much clearer at that time.  but in the meantime this is where we are now.....still in the promising phase.

Edited December 11, 2019 by The Wiz
added current record

[Quality Is Job 1]

27 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

With Duq finally playing its 8th game (last team in the A-10 to reach 8 ) this gives me enough data to make another forecast.  In addition , I have included 2 other report cards.  The 1st column , is the overall grade and can vary by 2 notches. For example, SLU  with a grade of B ( 67% chance to make the NIT)  can vary  from  A-  (NCAA bid ) to C+ ( no bids ) by the end of the season. At the end of the OOC schedule ....I will forecast again ....this time the variance will only be 1 notch.  Column 2 is the trending column.  ...with most recent games weighted heavier than earlier games....shows how teams are doing now....good info on new, young,  developing teams who may be growing as the season progresses....Finally , column 3 is the SOS....It is valuable at this point of the season because it  shows how valid the overall grade is.  For instance,  Dayton's  A  looks pretty solid  when coupled with  its B  SOS.   While Duq's  B+  is a bit suspect when coupled with it's F  SOS....Doesn't mean they aren't a good team...just means ,  I need more data to verify....By the end of OOC there will be enough data to make a determination.

 

.................................Overall......................Trending..................................................SOS

Day..............................A..................................A+.......................................................B...............NCAA

VCU..............................A-................................B+.......................................................D+............NCAA

Duq..............................B+...............................B+........................................................F..............NIT

Rich.............................B+................................A-.........................................................D+...........NIT

SLU..............................B..................................A-.........................................................D..............67% NIT

Dav..............................B...................................B-........................................................A-..............67%  NIT

RI..................................B................................B+..........................................................B+..............67% NIT

LaS...............................B-................................B...........................................................B+

GM...............................C+................................B+..........................................................F+

St. B.............................C+.................................B............................................................D+

UMass.........................C...................................D+..........................................................C

Ford.............................D+.................................C-............................................................F-....easiest sched ITN

St. J.............................D+..................................F+.............................................................B

GW...............................D.....................................C.............................................................F

 

At least 10 of the 14 teams have a chance to make post  season play  (min C+  now ).   In the B category....The Bills , Dav and RI ...2 teams should make it to NIT.    I will do this again in 3 weeks ...by then, there will be a lot more data and things will be much clearer at that time.  but in the meantime this is where we are now.....still in the promising phase.

Thanks for all of the data.  Is there any way to add the teams' Div. 1 records (currently)?

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

Thanks for all of the data.  Is there any way to add the teams' Div. 1 records (currently)?

Done

[Clock_Tower]

Wiz.   Thank you. So Tulane is not part of our grade? Or our SOS graded as a D?

seems like our SOS will go up soon w Auburn and the K State.  
 

Without too much time and trouble, are you able to say what our end of season SOS would be if you use grades for teams now - after 8 games? 
 

I thought our OOC would be tough this year - BC (though everyone beating them), Belmont (still going to be a good team), Seton Hall, Tulane (is good - assuming their opponents don't shoot 63% from 3), Auburn and K State

We needed the early season games w our new faces and youngsters.  Had we started by playing Tulane instead of KY Wes, we lose big.  Has anyone improved more than Jimerson since then?

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, Clock_Tower said:

Wiz.   Thank you. So Tulane is not part of our grade? Or our SOS graded as a D?

seems like our SOS will go up soon w Auburn and the K State.  
 

Without too much time and trouble, are you able to say what our end of season SOS would be if you use grades for teams now - after 8 games? 
 

I thought our OOC would be tough this year - BC (though everyone beating them), Belmont (still going to be a good team), Seton Hall, Tulane (is good - assuming their opponents don't shoot 63% from 3), Auburn and K State

We needed the early season games w our new faces and youngsters.  Had we started by playing Tulane instead of KY Wes, we lose big.  Has anyone improved more than Jimerson since then?

Tulane is part of our grade ....and our SOS is a D right now.    Our SOS grade will go up after we play Auburn ( A+ ) and KSU ( B ) but will drop after we play Bethune (D- ). 

Can I predict our SOS at the end of the season?  No ....because all SOS changes after every game....including the 9 games we have already played.   All 353  teams SOS changes every day as long as games are played. For example , we just played Tulane ...They were a C when we played them.....They are now a C- .  Most of the other 8 teams we have played have different grades too,  right now. So it is not only the future games that are changing but the past ones are changing too.  The reason I can't make the forecast of a season ending SOS is that it is a projection of a projection. I hope that explanation is clear.

You mention , you thought our OOC would be better and mentioned 6 schools ...2 of which we haven't yet played.  Unfortunately, you left off some of the anchors which are dragging us down...FGCU (1-10) currently F+ and Hi Pt (1-7) currently  F.   The D rated SOS is correct.....It is what it is ...and one could argue that it was done, at least partially,  by design.  While I can't give you the exact SOS at season's end ...it will go up not just because we play Aub & KSU but because we will play a lot of good teams in the A-10.  As you can see from the above chart over half of the teams we play in the A-10 are B- or higher.... I am not concerned about SOS ...we just need to win as many games as possible and everything else will fall into place.

[AnkielBreakers]

For example, the PF from Seton Hall(can’t remember his name) is injured girl the next 2 months. That will, in turn, hit our SOS a bit.

[Clock_Tower]

Wiz.  Thanks.

 But what I meant is that if all of our opponents’ SOS were frozen now (and as u point out it changes daily) wondering what our full season SOS would be?  For instance what was our preseason SOS projection?

Just wondering how our season this year compares to last year’s. Do we have more anchors this year than last? Or is it more of the timing of the anchors?  Obviously if the 810 is stronger this year, our SOS will increase this year. 

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, Clock_Tower said:

Wiz.  Thanks.

 But what I meant is that if all of our opponents’ SOS were frozen now (and as u point out it changes daily) wondering what our full season SOS would be?  For instance what was our preseason SOS projection?

Just wondering how our season this year compares to last year’s. Do we have more anchors this year than last? Or is it more of the timing of the anchors?  Obviously if the 810 is stronger this year, our SOS will increase this year. 

Hmmm....There is no preseason SOS because no games have been played.  And you really can't freeze a team (s) in time and then project what things will be. It would be like freezing your life now and wanting to know what it would be like in April 2020 .  Can't do it because you are part of it.   We are headed to a quantum physics / Twilight Zone/ It's A Wonderful Life movie mashup.

Sorry, not trying to be difficult,  just trying to explain why it can't be done....SOS is a fleeting stat that is good only for that moment in time...since I wrote the post yesterday , the SOS has already changed. But what I can do is show you some year end SOS when the stat does become frozen and meaningful at that time....I think it will also answer some of your questions ...if not fully than partially.....if not, it should be interesting reading for Bills fans.....

Year End.................A-10.........Bills SOS............W-L.............SLU overall grade

2012.......................A-................B+.....................25-8..................A+

2013.......................B+...............B+.....................28-7..................A

2014.......................A-.................B.......................26-7..................A

2015.......................B+................B-.....................10-21.................D

2016.......................B+................B......................11-21.................D

2017.......................B..................B.......................12-21.................D

2018.......................B-.................B........................16-16................C+

2019.......................B-.................B........................23-13.................B-

2020 (9-10 gms)....B..................D..........................8-1...................B

 

So Clock,  while  I can't do the calculations you want , I think this shows you with a pretty good degree of certainty that at the end of the season we will be at a grade of B on SOS...and if we want to do a little Back to the Future... next year's SOS will be around a B also.  Hope this clarifies things a bit.

[wgstl]

12 hours ago, The Wiz said:

 

 

At least 10 of the 14 teams have a chance to make post  season play  (min C+  now ).   In the B category....The Bills , Dav and RI ...2 teams should make it to NIT.    I will do this again in 3 weeks ...by then, there will be a lot more data and things will be much clearer at that time.  but in the meantime this is where we are now.....still in the promising phase.

Based on what you said above, here you said "10 of 14 teams have a chance to make post season play", this means NCAA or NIT right?  Not just NCAA or even CBI. 

[The Wiz]

8 minutes ago, wgstl said:

Based on what you said above, here you said "10 of 14 teams have a chance to make post season play", this means NCAA or NIT right?  Not just NCAA or even CBI. 

Yes...a chance to make the NCAA or NIT

If you have at least a C+ now (as 10 teams do)....then you have the potential to finish as high as B ...a 2/3 chance to make the NIT

[Clock_Tower]

Thanks to The Wiz and Thicks.   No problem.   I just assumed that you might have a way to input your existing records/grades of our 29 opponents to provide a grade of our SOS for the year as you have done with the 8 or 9 opponents to provide us with the grade D through 9 games.   Guess even if you could, the data would not be so comparable. For us alone, the quality of our 9 opponents will not be as strong as our next 20 opponents.   The SOS in prior years is what I was looking for.

Auburn and K-State are certainly no anchors - but am glad this team has had the opportunity to get the prior 9 games under their belts prior to playing them.  Also glad that we have played Seton Hall, Auburn and K-State prior to conference games.   Also glad, we played road game at BC, we played Belmont and we played Tulane on a neutral court.