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Auburn over The Bills by 10


The Wiz

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7 hours ago, wgstl said:

@The Wiz Do you think games like this where its against elite offenses benefits having a defensive player like thatch in, or having more scoring options?

When playing an elite offense ....you can never have too much defense.  Thatch would have been a big help in a game like this. To answer your question, I would definitely take a good defensive player over an offensive player when going against a team like Aub..... Auburn is like Belmont only better....It is an elite offense that doesn't really play much defense. Their attitude is we will let you do what you want to do on offense because in the end we will outscore you.    We are 7th in the nation in scoring....go ahead and try to outscore us. When an elite offense runs into a  good defense ...a defense that controls the game ...it throws them off when they can't score 86 pts.

Our defense was good enough to throw Belmont out of sync. I am hoping we can step up and do the same to Auburn....but we need to control the game.

Outlook......If Aub scores 80+ pts....we lose

...................If Aub scores 70-79...we have a chance to win

..................if Aub  scores less than 70 .....we have a good chance to win

This assumes we shoot decently ...see slash in the original post.

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Just now, gobillsgo said:

Have to think Travis will have us ready to go much more so than against Seton Hall. 

Players too, jimerson, Perkins, yuri and bell should feel more confident this time around. I’m sure their nervous we’re sky high 

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2 hours ago, The Wiz said:

When playing an elite offense ....you can never have too much defense.  Thatch would have been a big help in a game like this. To answer your question, I would definitely take a good defensive player over an offensive player when going against a team like Aub..... Auburn is like Belmont only better....It is an elite offense that doesn't really play much defense. Their attitude is we will let you do what you want to do on offense because in the end we will outscore you.    We are 7th in the nation in scoring....go ahead and try to outscore us. When an elite offense runs into a  good defense ...a defense that controls the game ...it throws them off when they can't score 86 pts.

Our defense was good enough to throw Belmont out of sync. I am hoping we can step up and do the same to Auburn....but we need to control the game.

Outlook......If Aub scores 80+ pts....we lose

...................If Aub scores 70-79...we have a chance to win

..................if Aub  scores less than 70 .....we have a good chance to win

This assumes we shoot decently ...see slash in the original post.

i.e.  Edmonton when they had Gretzky

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1 hour ago, wgstl said:

Players too, jimerson, Perkins, yuri and bell should feel more confident this time around. I’m sure their nervous we’re sky high 

Think Goodwin is a big one too, not on being nervous but on being ready to lead the young guys.  He mentioned in one article how he was quiet during the Seton Hall game after the slow start.  It was Bess last year that would talk to the team so that was first time Goodwin had to take the full leadership role.  

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Wiz, so you think that we have to defend against them to a level that disrupts their offense seriously as the way we can win this game, correct? A high physical contact, high rebounds, blocks, and steals sort of thing is your prescription for success. I like it, the only problem I can see with this, provided we can do this effectively against them, is fouls.

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12 hours ago, Clocktoweraccords2004 said:

Hate to be the guy again, but Bell does not have the skill to be on the court with a top 10 program like Auburn. We can't afford a slow start.

We need to pound them in the beginning like Vtech 2 years ago

We made it until tuesday before the jimmy bell cant play post hit the board. Is this a record? I wonder when that dead horse will stop being beaten. Ford is going to play him even if mbms think he should sit

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Ok, we all know the War Eagles/Tigers (make up your mind) is undefeated and ranked #12. However, it's not been all lollipops and gumdrops for Pearl's crew. Two of their wins have come against A10 top tier teams; Davidson by 10 and Richmond by 14. Two of their wins have come against solid Mid Major programs, but it was a struggle to beat them. So Alabama they beat by 1 70-69, and Furman took them to OT in a very tight game. The above makes me think climbing Mount Auburn may not be as tough as climbing Mt Everest. These guys can be had. Won't be easy, though, especially since they're in Birmingham which is basically a home game for them. 

Keys to winning should be obvious; French stays on the floor and not on the bench in foul trouble. This is going to be tough for him as Auburn likes to crash the boards and play very physical BB. Same could be said for JGood. Foul trouble has to be avoided, and that will be easier said than done. Second key, have another good shooting night ala Tulane. Doesn't have to be 60% but somewhere in the mid 40s might just do the trick. I watched the Auburn v Davidson game and had Davidson shot the long ball like they usually do, they could have won or made it a whole lot closer than 10 points. And, as I put on my Captain Obvious uniform, too many TO's will result in our being slaughtered. TOs always hurt, but these guys will jump all over them and convert to easy points. 

Bottom line we are going to have bring our A+ game to get out of Birmingham with a W. 

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14 hours ago, Clocktoweraccords2004 said:

Hate to be the guy again, but Bell does not have the skill to be on the court with a top 10 program like Auburn. We can't afford a slow start.

We need to pound them in the beginning like Vtech 2 years ago

Listen to the Coach sometime.  Bell will be on the floor as long as his positive contributions outweigh his negatives.   Coach defines positives and negatives based on the resume of each player.  The staff watches much more than the box score.  You should too.

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That weighting of positive vs negative contributions will depend, almost entirely, on how many many players are eliminated from play due to PFs. If enough players are eliminated from play, two things will happen: Our chances of winning will be nil, and every fit body in the bench will go in. if everything goes according to plan, we may avoid this fate. And if we play really aggressively and manage to avoid player elimination, we may well win this game. Bell may well have a definite role to play in this game extending beyond the minutes he usually plays. It all depends on how the game develops.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

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33 minutes ago, Old guy said:

That weighting of positive vs negative contributions will depend, almost entirely, on how many many players are eliminated from play due to PFs. If enough players are eliminated from play, two things will happen: Our chances of winning will be nil, and every fit body in the bench will go in. if everything goes according to plan, we may avoid this fate. And if we play really aggressively and manage to avoid player elimination, we may well win this game. Bell may well have a definite role to play in this game extending beyond the minutes he usually plays. It all depends on how the game develops.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

i disagree with your thinking.    if anything we have to shorten the bench AND hope for no fouls.   there is a reason players are 9th, 10th, 11th man on the bench.   they arent as good.  there is a reason french and goodwin play 35 minutes even though we have a bench full of players.  they are far and away our best players.    even with fatigue, the likes of our main players are still significantly better options than some of the guys further down the bench.   the day every player is only playing 20 minutes or less is the day coach ford agrees with your thinking.  

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1 hour ago, HoosierPal said:

Listen to the Coach sometime.  Bell will be on the floor as long as his positive contributions outweigh his negatives.   Coach defines positives and negatives based on the resume of each player.  The staff watches much more than the box score.  You should too.

We also need him to contribute right now and he’s doing a fine job of that. compare that to Hargrove who we are able to ease along due to depth.  

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Roy, of course I totally agree with you. What I described before is something that will happen only if the refs start calling too many fouls on our players. We have seen games where (usually one of the refs) seems intent in calling all kinds of things he claims to have seen us doing from sometimes the other side of the court.

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To amplify what I said above, I recall the post by one of this board's members who was watching the game between Auburn and Furman. Auburn's defender "climbed over the back of the Furman ball carrier." One of the refs called the foul on the Furman guy. I was not watching the game I am just recalling what I believe one of our guys posted.

Forgive me for having a deep pool of cynicism or skepticism inside myself, this is what old age and experience gives you. I think you do not get to stay undefeated without "help" from your friends, wherever the friends may be. This is particularly true for hard fought close games decided by a couple of points like the win of Auburn over Furman was (81-78).

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26 minutes ago, Old guy said:

To amplify what I said above, I recall the post by one of this board's members who was watching the game between Auburn and Furman. Auburn's defender "climbed over the back of the Furman ball carrier." One of the refs called the foul on the Furman guy. I was not watching the game I am just recalling what I believe one of our guys posted.

Forgive me for having a deep pool of cynicism or skepticism inside myself, this is what old age and experience gives you. I think you do not get to stay undefeated without "help" from your friends, wherever the friends may be. This is particularly true for hard fought close games decided by a couple of points like the win of Auburn over Furman was (81-78).

That was me who reported Auburn's big man Austin Wiley climbing Noah Gurley's back and Gurley being hit with his fifth. I will be shocked if French goes deep into the 2nd half with less than four fouls. The 2nd half homecooking Auburn received was an awesome thing to behold.

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5 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

That was me who reported Auburn's big man Austin Wiley climbing Noah Gurley's back and Gurley being hit with his fifth. I will be shocked if French goes deep into the 2nd half with less than four fouls. The 2nd half homecooking Auburn received was in awesome thing to behold.

This is my concern as well....

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1 hour ago, Old guy said:

To amplify what I said above, I recall the post by one of this board's members who was watching the game between Auburn and Furman. Auburn's defender "climbed over the back of the Furman ball carrier." One of the refs called the foul on the Furman guy. I was not watching the game I am just recalling what I believe one of our guys posted.

Forgive me for having a deep pool of cynicism or skepticism inside myself, this is what old age and experience gives you. I think you do not get to stay undefeated without "help" from your friends, wherever the friends may be. This is particularly true for hard fought close games decided by a couple of points like the win of Auburn over Furman was (81-78).

If I am remembering that play in real time it did look like the foul should have been on Auburn but the replay clearly showed the Furman player pushing back under the player while he was in the air.  I understand that the Furman player may not have known that the Auburn player had jumped up at that exact moment - the announcers made a big deal of how this was a dirty play.  The reason it was a foul was because the guy was in the air and the Furman player did under cut him.  

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Furman brought Auburn to OT, Georgia Southern played them close, and lowly South Alabama lost by 1....all 3 lesser teams than SLU. I won't be surprised if we beat this overrated SEC team and you bet your ass we cover those 10 points. IF we do not win, it won't be because of foul trouble or turnovers, it will be because of missed free throws.

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On 12/9/2019 at 7:22 PM, The Wiz said:

First a great win over Tulane ...not because we beat a C team but because we played a strong game on offense AND defense....We finally put it all together....see the post game wrap up on the spread thread for more detail.

 This coming together could not have come at a better time as we face our toughest challenge of the regular season....The Bills remain as a B team (it is difficult to move up grade wise as data accumulates.) Meanwhile , we face Auburn an A+ team...rated 12th in this week's AP poll and 10th in The Wiz poll..  If we look at the trending grades (rating recent games with more value than earlier games)  The Bills come in at  a very nice A-...something you want to see in a new , young team that is still evolving.  Unfortunately, In the trending grades, Auburn again comes up with an A+....trending spread is better but still shows Aub by 6.  Before we figure out what we need to do , let's figure out what we are dealing with...

Let's take a look at the report card...

 

..............................SLU.............................Aub.............................................SLU...................................Aub

................................................OFF................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................C+................................A+...7th ITN............................B+.....................................C

FG%.........................B-................................A.......................................... ..B+......................................B-

3Pt%........................B+...............................C.............................................D-.......................................B-

FT%.........................F-...  Worst ITN...........D-.............................................................................................

Reb.........................A+....15th ITN.............A+.....10th ITN.......................C+........................................B

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF rebs = opp reb

Also Bills  Offensive reb....A+....11th  ITN

Change from last game (UP means improvement ...Down means worse)....UP ..PPG....FG%...3P%....Reb.....  DOWN.....FT% ( back on the bottom again)...3P% def

Top 100 ITN

Stls....Goodwin ...60th

Assts...Collins....28th

Rebs...Goodwin...11th.....French...21st

Blks.....French....19th

PPG...Doughty...64th

Assts...McCormick...15th

Reb...Wiley...62nd

FG%...Wiley...11th (70.7%)...Okoro...71st...(60.3%)

Being 7th ITN in PPG Aub knows how to score....Most of that scoring occurs from close in (Wiley and Okoro) ...Aub is not much of a threat from the outside...Doughty is their only shooter of importance from the arc. ..but he can go inside too....Wiley is also their reb threat....In addition,  this game won't be decided at the charity line as both teams are terrible FT shooting teams.

WWN2D2W...a lot....but it is doable....We need decent shooting....48/38/ 64....Our big strength this year has been rebounding...Unfortunately that is also an Aub strength....The computer shows us even with Aub on the boards...another area I like to harp on because I think it is important is TOs....again the computer show us even with Aub.....We need to win BOTH battles (reb & TOs) by ANY amount. Wiley and Okoro will try to dominate inside....keep them to a combined 18pts......also keep Wiley off the boards ...hold him to less than 9 rebs......Doughty is their scorer ...hold him to 14 pts.

Bottom line.... A lot to do but  the game is winnable and we don't need to have a historic game to win...we need a consistent game to win...Off and Def.......Aub is similar to Seton Hall in that they are both A+ teams now. We are in a much better place now than we were when we played SH....We now have the potential to win...we have already played to that potential....We just need to do it ....now.

Go Bills

 

Step 1: print the Wiz’s prediction 

Step 2: retrieve from printer

step 3: walk to fireplace 

step 4: throw paper into fireplace 

thanks for keeping backhand warm all winter, Wiz! 

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