The Wiz Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 First a great win over Tulane ...not because we beat a C team but because we played a strong game on offense AND defense....We finally put it all together....see the post game wrap up on the spread thread for more detail. This coming together could not have come at a better time as we face our toughest challenge of the regular season....The Bills remain as a B team (it is difficult to move up grade wise as data accumulates.) Meanwhile , we face Auburn an A+ team...rated 12th in this week's AP poll and 10th in The Wiz poll.. If we look at the trending grades (rating recent games with more value than earlier games) The Bills come in at a very nice A-...something you want to see in a new , young team that is still evolving. Unfortunately, In the trending grades, Auburn again comes up with an A+....trending spread is better but still shows Aub by 6. Before we figure out what we need to do , let's figure out what we are dealing with... Let's take a look at the report card... ..............................SLU.............................Aub.............................................SLU...................................Aub ................................................OFF................................................................................DEF............... PPG.........................C+................................A+...7th ITN............................B+.....................................C FG%.........................B-................................A.......................................... ..B+......................................B- 3Pt%........................B+...............................C.............................................D-.......................................B- FT%.........................F-... Worst ITN...........D-............................................................................................. Reb.........................A+....15th ITN.............A+.....10th ITN.......................C+........................................B OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF rebs = opp reb Also Bills Offensive reb....A+....11th ITN Change from last game (UP means improvement ...Down means worse)....UP ..PPG....FG%...3P%....Reb..... DOWN.....FT% ( back on the bottom again)...3P% def Top 100 ITN Stls....Goodwin ...60th Assts...Collins....28th Rebs...Goodwin...11th.....French...21st Blks.....French....19th PPG...Doughty...64th Assts...McCormick...15th Reb...Wiley...62nd FG%...Wiley...11th (70.7%)...Okoro...71st...(60.3%) Being 7th ITN in PPG Aub knows how to score....Most of that scoring occurs from close in (Wiley and Okoro) ...Aub is not much of a threat from the outside...Doughty is their only shooter of importance from the arc. ..but he can go inside too....Wiley is also their reb threat....In addition, this game won't be decided at the charity line as both teams are terrible FT shooting teams. WWN2D2W...a lot....but it is doable....We need decent shooting....48/38/ 64....Our big strength this year has been rebounding...Unfortunately that is also an Aub strength....The computer shows us even with Aub on the boards...another area I like to harp on because I think it is important is TOs....again the computer shows us even with Aub.....We need to win BOTH battles (reb & TOs) by ANY amount. Wiley and Okoro will try to dominate inside....keep them to a combined 18pts......also keep Wiley off the boards ...hold him to less than 9 rebs......Doughty is their scorer ...hold him to 14 pts. Bottom line.... A lot to do but the game is winnable and we don't need to have a historic game to win...we need a consistent game to win...Off and Def.......Aub is similar to Seton Hall in that they are both A+ teams now. We are in a much better place now than we were when we played SH....We now have the potential to win...we have already played to that potential....We just need to do it ....now. Go Bills glazedandconfused, JohnnyJumpUp, Zink and 2 others like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 I fear my boy jimmy is gonna foul out... early Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dennis_w Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 8 hours ago, wgstl said: I fear my boy jimmy is gonna foul out... early we can hope he draws a few fouls and gets them in some foul trouble early Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moytoy12 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 minute ago, dennis_w said: we can hope he draws a few fouls and gets them in some foul trouble early Agreed. I’d tell bell to go at Wiley hard on the offensive end and see if we can get a few early fouls on him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 I like how it lays out in the straight up matchup ….Bell against Wiley; French against Okoro, Goodwin against Purifoy; Collins against McCormack and Jacobs against Doughty. Aubrun only really goes 8 deep. The issue will likely be Bell getting outclassed as a freshman against a senior with Final Four experience. Doughty, formerly from VCU, is playing like a lights-out All-American right now. If Seton Hall scared me on roster height, this team scares me on senior roster experience. Still .. can't wait. PS … what idiot gave Duquesne a vote in the AP Top Twenty-Five? Sure, they're undefeated but c'mon man. Last night they beat Columvbia. Their wins are against powers like Lipscomb, Lamar, and other 250+ teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiseAndGrind Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Already planning all day drinking Saturday no matter what happens. LFG BuiltFordBills likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FromDaEastSide Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 41 minutes ago, Taj79 said: PS … what idiot gave Duquesne a vote in the AP Top Twenty-Five? Sure, they're undefeated but c'mon man. Last night they beat Columvbia. Their wins are against powers like Lipscomb, Lamar, and other 250+ teams. John Feinstein - he should probably stick to writing books. https://collegepolltracker.com/basketball/team/duquesne-dukes/2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 10 hours ago, The Wiz said: Bottom line.... A lot to do but the game is winnable and we don't need to have a historic game to win...we need a consistent game to win...Off and Def.......Aub is similar to Seton Hall in that they are both A+ teams now. We are in a much better place now than we were when we played SH....We now have the potential to win...we have already played to that potential....We just need to do it ....now. Go Bills Like your analysis, particularly the way it ends. Yes, we have the capability to win this one. We have already played up to that level (or that potential). What we, I mean the team, needs to do is to believe WE CAN DO IT and own that belief. It is not doing it because we have to do it, it is doing it because that is what and where we are. Go Bills! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 @The Wiz Do you think games like this where its against elite offenses benefits having a defensive player like thatch in, or having more scoring options? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelC Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 hour ago, Taj79 said: I like how it lays out in the straight up matchup ….Bell against Wiley; French against Okoro, Goodwin against Purifoy; Collins against McCormack and Jacobs against Doughty. Aubrun only really goes 8 deep. The issue will likely be Bell getting outclassed as a freshman against a senior with Final Four experience. Doughty, formerly from VCU, is playing like a lights-out All-American right now. If Seton Hall scared me on roster height, this team scares me on senior roster experience. Still .. can't wait. PS … what idiot gave Duquesne a vote in the AP Top Twenty-Five? Sure, they're undefeated but c'mon man. Last night they beat Columvbia. Their wins are against powers like Lipscomb, Lamar, and other 250+ teams. The more Top 25 votes they get the better opportunity it presents for us on Jan 2. I hope they win their next 4 games by double digits and get several more Top 25 votes, then beating them at their place will be a great start to the A-10 season. bauman, wgstl and billiken_roy like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenbill Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 43 minutes ago, MichaelC said: The more Top 25 votes they get the better opportunity it presents for us on Jan 2. I hope they win their next 4 games by double digits and get several more Top 25 votes, then beating them at their place will be a great start to the A-10 season. Checking Duq’s roster, it’s surprisingly good, even with the loss of Williams. They’ve not only been winning, they’ve been winning mostly by large margins. I see they’re not playing Pitt this year so hard to get a real read on them before conference play. Regardless of their non-con schedule, beating the Dukes this year will not be easy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 2 hours ago, Taj79 said: I like how it lays out in the straight up matchup ….Bell against Wiley; French against Okoro, Goodwin against Purifoy; Collins against McCormack and Jacobs against Doughty. Aubrun only really goes 8 deep. The issue will likely be Bell getting outclassed as a freshman against a senior with Final Four experience. Doughty, formerly from VCU, is playing like a lights-out All-American right now. If Seton Hall scared me on roster height, this team scares me on senior roster experience. Still .. can't wait. PS … what idiot gave Duquesne a vote in the AP Top Twenty-Five? Sure, they're undefeated but c'mon man. Last night they beat Columvbia. Their wins are against powers like Lipscomb, Lamar, and other 250+ teams. Defensively I might try Goodwin on Okoro and throw French on Purifoy. That way you have a taller guy in Purifoy's face when he wants to throw up a three. When Bell comes out you will have to throw French on Wiley and then shift Jacobs or Goodwin over to Purifoy. Fred Thatch will be missed in this game. You just put Thatch on Doughty and it would have allowed Goodwin and Jacobs to match up against Okoro and Purifoy while having French deal with Wiley. We are really going to need Jimerson or Perkins to step up defensively. Auburn has more guys that can't hurt us offensively than any team we have played this year. Their top three scorers are extremely efficient with effective FG%s above 60%. Then they bring Johnson and McLemore of the bench and don't lose any efficiency with both being above 60%. We need to get physical against Auburn. They have yet to play against any team that can get as physical as we can this season. We need to turn this game into a street fight if we are going to win. Make them earn every bucket they get. billiken_roy and JohnnyJumpUp like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUBillsFan Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 37 minutes ago, brianstl said: Defensively I might try Goodwin on Okoro and throw French on Purifoy. That way you have a taller guy in Purifoy's face when he wants to throw up a three. When Bell comes out you will have to throw French on Wiley and then shift Jacobs or Goodwin over to Purifoy. Fred Thatch will be missed in this game. You just put Thatch on Doughty and it would have allowed Goodwin and Jacobs to match up against Okoro and Purifoy while having French deal with Wiley. I'd rather have French guarding a guy who is more likely to stay close to the basket so that he can provide help / shot blocking. If he's pulled out to the 3 pt line, I'm not sure i trust Bell to defend the paint. Ultimately, it may not matter much who is on who to start a possession. Recently (especially SUI & Tulane games), we've been switching a lot on defense so it will be a matter of trying to avoid mismatches (ex. Collins on Wiley) and covering when those mismatches inevitably happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 17 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said: I'd rather have French guarding a guy who is more likely to stay close to the basket so that he can provide help / shot blocking. If he's pulled out to the 3 pt line, I'm not sure i trust Bell to defend the paint. Ultimately, it may not matter much who is on who to start a possession. Recently (especially SUI & Tulane games), we've been switching a lot on defense so it will be a matter of trying to avoid mismatches (ex. Collins on Wiley) and covering when those mismatches inevitably happen. I am only talking about French possibly guarding Purifoy for the first 3 minutes of the game. I probably should have made that clear. Purifoy has been a streaky 3 point shooter this season and I don't want him to start feeling it from the perimeter that early in the game. If he gets comfortable from there that early, it really could be a very long day. RUBillsFan likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 hour ago, billikenbill said: Checking Duq’s roster, it’s surprisingly good, even with the loss of Williams. They’ve not only been winning, they’ve been winning mostly by large margins. I see they’re not playing Pitt this year so hard to get a real read on them before conference play. Regardless of their non-con schedule, beating the Dukes this year will not be easy. I agree. There is no reason to sell Duquesne short this season. They are 8-0, the first time since 1976. Sincere Carry continues to show last season was not a fluke. They have two decent big men in Hughes and Steele, a budding star in freshman Austin and quality depth in Norman, Weathers and Dunn-Martin. They do have a Quad 2 win, the same number of Q2 wins that we have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheChosenOne Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 15 hours ago, The Wiz said: First a great win over Tulane ...not because we beat a C team but because we played a strong game on offense AND defense....We finally put it all together. Yes sir. We saw what this team can be and man was it impressive. Watch party at my house if anyone wants to come. After the game on Sunday I stocked up on Kool-Aid, so it will be flowing! Love this team, lets make a statement! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBL_Bills Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 hour ago, HoosierPal said: They do have a Quad 2 win, the same number of Q2 wins that we have. Which ranking system are you using to determine Quadrants? I have a feeling both BC and Belmont will end up being Quad 2 wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 hour ago, HoosierPal said: They do have a Quad 2 win, the same number of Q2 wins that we have. What’s the ranking system that determines that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelC Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, wgstl said: What’s the ranking system that determines that? https://www.si.com/college/2018/03/01/ncaa-tournament-quadrant-system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 11 minutes ago, GBL_Bills said: Which ranking system are you using to determine Quadrants? I have a feeling both BC and Belmont will end up being Quad 2 wins. 3 minutes ago, MichaelC said: https://www.si.com/college/2018/03/01/ncaa-tournament-quadrant-system Thanks Michael C. Yes, the NCAA put together a new system last year. If you recall, in the interview at the end of the Bracket Show, the Commish included Quad 1 and 2 wins in the discussion. Today the Belmont win is a Quad 2 win. BC is a Quad 3 win. But those likely may flip as the Conference seasons unfold. Today, the Seton Hall loss is a Quad 2 loss, but that likely will move to a Quad 1 loss (as if it matters) once Hall's conference season starts and their numbers go up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBL_Bills Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 22 minutes ago, HoosierPal said: Thanks Michael C. Yes, the NCAA put together a new system last year. If you recall, in the interview at the end of the Bracket Show, the Commish included Quad 1 and 2 wins in the discussion. Today the Belmont win is a Quad 2 win. BC is a Quad 3 win. But those likely may flip as the Conference seasons unfold. Today, the Seton Hall loss is a Quad 2 loss, but that likely will move to a Quad 1 loss (as if it matters) once Hall's conference season starts and their numbers go up. I understand the quad designations, I'm just confused where you're getting the NET rankings from? NCAA only loads last year's for me on their website. I was wondering if you were using Kenpom to determine the cutoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, GBL_Bills said: I understand the quad designations, I'm just confused where you're getting the NET rankings from? NCAA only loads last year's for me on their website. I was wondering if you were using Kenpom to determine the cutoffs. http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2020/conferences You have to do some clicking, but these guys figured out the formula last season. Going through Conference Tab seems to be the easiest. glazedandconfused and TheDude like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBL_Bills Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Just now, HoosierPal said: http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2020/conferences You have to do some clicking, but these guys figured out the formula last season. Going through Conference Tab seems to be the easiest. Huge. Bookmarked. Thanks. Infuriating how infrequently the NCAA updates their own rankings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, GBL_Bills said: Huge. Bookmarked. Thanks. Infuriating how infrequently the NCAA updates their own rankings. They put together Team Sheets last year during Conference Season. It's a nice site. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dennis_w Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Bell wont be guarding wiley for long as he likely will only play about 10 minutes, He just needs to do what he does get a few rebounds defend the paint and a bonus will be if he can draw a foul or two Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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