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The Wiz

The Bills over SIU by 13

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First , beating BC was another quality win ...we beat another B team at their place. ...for a more detailed analysis, see the post game review on the BC spread thread.

As you can see by the headline ...we got this game...but we will have to do more than show up.  We come into this game  as a B team...SIU is a C- team. . This is an important game for me as this is the 8th game of the season....after this game, it is all real data...spreads should be better and more importantly it answer the question ...who are we.  While not a final answer , it is usually difficult to move much after the 8th game. Even with a nice win over BC we remained at B....more data means it is more difficult to move...also  higher grades are more difficult to improve.

Let's take a look at the report card to see what we are dealing with.....

 

..............................SLU.............................SIU.............................................SLU...................................SIU

................................................OFF................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................C................................F+..............................................B.....................................B+

FG%..........................C................................C+......................................... ..A-.....................................B

3Pt%..........................C................................C-............................................D-....................................B+

FT%...........................F-... worst ITN............C-.............................................................................................

Reb............................A...............................F-...13th worst ITN..................C-.....................................D-

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF rebs = opp reb

Also Offensive reb....A+....10th  ITN

Change from last game....Up ..Reb....PPG def.....3P% def ...FG% def......... Down....  .PPG.....FG%...3P%....opp reb

Top 100 ITN

Stls....Goodwin ...37th

Assts...Collins....17th

Rebs...French.....19th.....Goodwin...62nd

Blks.....French....15th

FG%...Benson...26th ...67.9%

Stls...Cook...8th

The disturbing trend continues as our offensive grades continue to slide...To put things into perspective....while people may complain about our offense , it is a vast improvement over the Fs from last year.....On the positive side our Def grades continue to improve as well as our rebounding.  Even our 3P def which still is weak has improved a little. A good thing about this game is their weakness (rebounding...F- ) plays into our strength (also rebounding ...A)

WWN2D2W....Hold Benson , McGill and Domask to a combined total of 30 pts.....TO s ...we need to match them....remember Cook is 8th ITN in steals....whoever he guards will have to protect the ball....make some shots....this won't be easy as SIU's strong suit is D.....Our needed slash....48/ 35/ 58....And finally rebound...dominate....usually winning by 10 rebs is domination....in this case we should be able to super dominate....by 15 rebs.

Bottom line...Rebound, rebound , rebound....This will be the key to this game...if we don't win the boards battle by double figures , it means something has gone wrong.   ...protecting the ball will be important too......We need to make some shots...including FTs...we are in the basement of all D1 teams.....This game should be ours....Did I mention rebounding?

Edited by The Wiz
Injury update...Cook out with broken hand

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Mark it down, this team is going to the promised land of the big dance again this season because of the outstanding leadership of JGood and French.

JGood did it his junior year of high school, he's doing it again right now as a junior in college.

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I think SLU should win this game. Personally, I am not distraught about our decrease in offensive stats as long as we are winning.

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4 minutes ago, Old guy said:

I think SLU should win this game. Personally, I am not distraught about our decrease in offensive stats as long as we are winning.

Plus the competition has gotten tougher. We have 2 OOC games, Auburn and KSU, against teams ranked higher than us in  Kenpom. Be sweet to win one of them. Probably take a miracle to win both. But if we did and go like 11-5 in A10 play an at large might be doable. 

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33 minutes ago, almaman said:

What if HF has a Conklin summer in 2020?

"Conklin summer" is the most overused phrase on this forum. From his Junior to Senior season, his scoring clip ticked up slightly, primarily due to averaging 8 more minutes per game. His FG% was almost identical between the two seasons, and he actually averaged less rebounds per minute during his Senior year. Alas, Hasahn is a much better player today than Conklin ever was.

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8 minutes ago, JettFlight5 said:

I think Aaron Cook may be hurt.

Twitter saying out 4-6 weeks with a broken hand.

That is correct ....injured in the Murray St game....Huge loss for the Salukis.

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34 minutes ago, BilliesBy40 said:

"Conklin summer" is the most overused phrase on this forum. From his Junior to Senior season, his scoring clip ticked up slightly, primarily due to averaging 8 more minutes per game. His FG% was almost identical between the two seasons, and he actually averaged less rebounds per minute during his Senior year. Alas, Hasahn is a much better player today than Conklin ever was.

The biggest part of the Conklin summer was Conklin getting 100% healthy.

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1 hour ago, slu72 said:

Plus the competition has gotten tougher. We have 2 OOC games, Auburn and KSU, against teams ranked higher than us in  Kenpom. Be sweet to win one of them. Probably take a miracle to win both. But if we did and go like 11-5 in A10 play an at large might be doable. 

The way K State is playing right now....it's doable 

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2 hours ago, slu72 said:

Plus the competition has gotten tougher. We have 2 OOC games, Auburn and KSU, against teams ranked higher than us in  Kenpom. Be sweet to win one of them. Probably take a miracle to win both. But if we did and go like 11-5 in A10 play an at large might be doable. 

Currently, K State is a B rated team ...same as the Bills.   Auburn is an A+ rated team ...same as Seton Hall.

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27 minutes ago, Coach314 said:

The way K State is playing right now....it's doable 

At this point and having veg'ed out on CBB the past 2 days, I see the following games as the only ones I consider us to not have a chance to win;  Auburn, Dayton, both home and away, and likely not wins at Richmond, and at URI.   The rest of our schedule, including K-St and VCU at Chaifetz are all games I see as winnable assuming we continue to make even minimal improvement  as the season continues.

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54 minutes ago, bauman said:

At this point and having veg'ed out on CBB the past 2 days, I see the following games as the only ones I consider us to not have a chance to win;  Auburn, Dayton, both home and away, and likely not wins at Richmond, and at URI.   The rest of our schedule, including K-St and VCU at Chaifetz are all games I see as winnable assuming we continue to make even minimal improvement  as the season continues.

I didn't catch the BC game but it seems Ford definitely has them on the right track for a successful season

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3 minutes ago, Clocktoweraccords2004 said:

Wiz, do we change the standards on 3pt% now? It seems like a lot of teams are shooting a bit less than average now 

Watching the Davidson Marquette game, Davidson has yet to hit a 3 tonight. Trail 61-56 w/2:38. DU is 0-12 from the arc. 

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1 hour ago, Clocktoweraccords2004 said:

Wiz, do we change the standards on 3pt% now? It seems like a lot of teams are shooting a bit less than average now 

I believe Wiz grades on a curve.  If the overall average changes from one year to the next, it will remain a C.  Last year it could have been 38%, and this year it could be 34% — just throwing out numbers.  The basis of comparison is to Div. 1 teams this season, not historical averages over multiple years.

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1 hour ago, Clocktoweraccords2004 said:

Wiz, do we change the standards on 3pt% now? It seems like a lot of teams are shooting a bit less than average now 

 

18 minutes ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

I believe Wiz grades on a curve.  If the overall average changes from one year to the next, it will remain a C.  Last year it could have been 38%, and this year it could be 34% — just throwing out numbers.  The basis of comparison is to Div. 1 teams this season, not historical averages over multiple years.

Qjob 1 is correct ....I do grade on a curve but I do save the old historical data to see how we are really doing....In other words ....have we improved because of the curve or are we really better.. First let's answer the basic question....has shooting worsened?...The answer is yes....The following chart compares the historical 3 pt data to the current year. It is true  that this year is a small sample size so far...but it is meaningful in that it has fallen consistently through all grade levels ...As your grade falls the bad shooting gets progressively worse.  In other words , good teams have suffered less ...bad teams have suffered more. As a C team  The Bills  have had a moderate amount of punishment. It is important to take a measurement now because it is expected that shooting will improve some by the end of the year.

Let;s take a look at the chart....

This compares the historical shooting levels  (12 years) with this year's numbers...

All numbers are in % and are down

A+...-0.2

A...-0.6

A-...-0.9

B+...-1.8

B...-2-2

B-...-2.7

C+...-2.8

C.....-3.7

C-...-4.0

D+...-4.1

D....-4.9

D-...-5.6

F+...-6.1

F....-7.1

F-...-7.9

These are some serious drops. As an example the normal drops between full letter grades on the historical charts are 1 to 1 3/4 %.  These numbers are similar to the start of last year's NIT where the longer distance was tested. By the end of the tourney the numbers were better....partly because the better teams were left at the end and partly because teams got use to the distance. .

So how much is real and how much is affected by the curve?....Let's look at The Bills as an example....Last year on the old model The Bills were an F shooting team (seems so long ago) . This year we would be a D+ team ...so based on the historical model ...we have real and significant improvement. But in this year's new, weaker  and curved model we are a C team.....So F to D+ is real and D+ to C is the curve....So the answer is both...real and curved improvement.

Hope that clarifies things a bit.

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Interesting.  I see Mizzou plays the Southern Illinois Salukis next month.  But can't play SLU.  Hmm.  Assuming it is a  buy game.  Will have to give it a look for comparison purposes.

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Now that I've finally called SIU "Methdale", we can close this thread and wait for the GDT on Sunday.

Methdale.  Rectum, damn near killed 'em.

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Not yet Jimbo. Teamrankings just published the Vegas inspired expected scores for the game, as follows: SLU 65.5, SIU 53. Their spread is 12.5 in favor of SLU.

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On 11/28/2019 at 12:14 PM, BilliesBy40 said:

"Conklin summer" is the most overused phrase on this forum. From his Junior to Senior season, his scoring clip ticked up slightly, primarily due to averaging 8 more minutes per game. His FG% was almost identical between the two seasons, and he actually averaged less rebounds per minute during his Senior year. Alas, Hasahn is a much better player today than Conklin ever was.

Yikes

Conklin was the 2nd best player in the A10 his senior year.  That version of the conference is much better than this years iteration.  French may get to be as good as Conklin but he's not there yet.

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*whispers* If i was a betting man I might take SIUC? 
 

*but I’d never ever bet against the bills.*

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32 minutes ago, thetorch said:

Yikes

Conklin was the 2nd best player in the A10 his senior year.  That version of the conference is much better than this years iteration.  French may get to be as good as Conklin but he's not there yet.

Have to disagree.  Loved Conklin, but French is the better player right now hands down.

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