Old guy Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 Just posted by teamrankings, the expected scores for the coming game are: SLU: 72.2 , EWU: 65.2. The Vegas inspired spread is 7 in our favor. Personally, I think we are likely to beat EWU by a larger margin. TheChosenOne and dennis_w like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
majerus mojo Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 On 11/11/2019 at 2:03 PM, almaman said: Plus Hankton did pretty good doing HF old job of being a 4 and playing as a 5. All 3 of the bigs played 45 m vs 80 allotted 4 & 5 spots. Shooting aside, Hankton impressed for the first time in awhile. Was almost ready to write him off as a 5-10 mins a game guy BIG BILL FAN and dennis_w like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 Lots of things to look for in the game tonight, it will be interesting to see what happens. To be honest, I was both delighted and surprised to find out what Jacobs and Hankton had achieved in the Valpo game. Will we have other pleasant surprises in tonight's game? Only one way to find out. Go Bills! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dennis_w Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 2 hours ago, Old guy said: Lots of things to look for in the game tonight, it will be interesting to see what happens. To be honest, I was both delighted and surprised to find out what Jacobs and Hankton had achieved in the Valpo game. Will we have other pleasant surprises in tonight's game? Only one way to find out. Go Bills! who will have the next break out game? should we start a poll? cant wait to see Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheltiedave Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 These breakouts are a good thing. Players that pop into double figures have to be accounted and defended. French Goodwin Jacobs Thatch Collins Jimmmmmerson Thatch/Hankton/Perkins/Weaver make for a long night. There isn’t much coast time when there are 4-6 people who could be the top scorer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 14, 2019 Author Share Posted November 14, 2019 2 words for this game......EASY MONEY For those who were following along on this thread...You know that there was an error in the data. I had a feeling that my spread was going to be higher than the going rate...by 6pts...which is a huge difference....hopefully some of you were able to take advantage. It is also looking much brighter for Sunday's game....It was going to be a close game against SHall with Powell playing ...without him playing ...stay tuned for Friday's spread thread. Now let's talk about this game.... Here is the quote from my original post on pg 1 of this thread... "What we need to do to win ( In future posts to be known as WWN2D2W)---Slash ....48/33/58....on FTs , I have gone from ....63 ...I can dream... to 58...surprise me. Need to hold Davison to 15 pts....Aiken to 5 assts.....We need to dominate on Rebs...by 10....and win the TO battle...by 4 Bottom line....This should be a Billiken win....I feel like we still haven't reached our potential yet....if it happens this game ...could be a blowout....Go Bills" 48/33/ 58...actual...57/38/43.......double pass / pass / double fail...I said surprise me on FTs....they did on the downside... Hold Davison to 15 pts...he scored 2....excellent....hold Aiken to 5 assts...he had 3...great Dominate on Reb and TOs...we didn't ...We had 1 more reb than they did and even on TOs..... On FTs... even though we got bombed on FT%...they only had 1 more FTM than we did...we had 10 extra shots...so this didn't hurt us... Yes , this game was a blowout and yes there were a lot of good things that happened.....But we blew them out not because we reached our potential but because we played a stinky team. EWU may finish 1st in their conference and they also beat PBC by 82 pts....but that doesn't make them a good team. They would finish last in the A-10. Bottom line...We can't have 18 TOs and shoot 43% at the FT line and expect to beat good teams. The good news is we seem to play to the level of our competition.... We can play poorly against bad teams and overpower them and wear them down. And rise to the occasion when playing good teams. I don't know if the FTs can be fixed but it may only matter in a few games particularly if we continue to get extra shots. The TOs can be fixed especially since many were unforced. In order to win Sunday we will have to have a better game then the 3 we have won so far....and you know what we can... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 Wiz, I honestly think this last game was neither an easy win (easy money as you say), nor was EWU a stinky team. EWU came well prepared and ready, they played a similar game to ours and neutralized our main players, at least for a fair amount of time. We did play better than they did and won by 22 pts which is a solid win. I do not care if this was an ugly game (which at times it was). Teamrankings which I follow upped our ranking from 131 to 109 after last night. In the same scale we have gone from 169 prior to the first game to 109 after the EWU game. We are doing just fine and still improving. I am thinking, just thinking this does not have to do much with reality it may even be a fantasy, that the way we are playing our problems with TOs and FTs are becoming less important than they were before. I think the important thing for our team is the degree of disruption we cause on the opponent's plans. For this, again in my thinking, they key player is indeed Yuri and his ability to handle the ball, penetrate and pass it (in incredible passes) to someone else. One of the plays from the game last night apparently is in a list of nationwide notable plays put out by ESPN+, or so my wife said. I have not checked this as yet. I do not mean to be argumentative but what we have this year is a very special team, quite capable of going a lot farther than most people think (probably myself included). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CBFan Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 The depth of our team is the difference, when a player struggled we did not have anyone on the bench to go to. On Saturday it was Goodwin and Jacobs, last night is was French, Thatch and Collins with help from Perkins and Weaver and we still have not gotten through our whole bench that can come in and play quality minuets with Hargrove. Our 4 and 5 positions is the only positions that lacks depth so I like seeing Bell and Hankton playing and improving. Our outside shooting from so many Weaver, Perkins, Goodwin, Jacobs, Thatch should keep teams defense from packing in the middle allowing the werewolf to score a lot so far. This teams reminds me of the Spoonhour team with Waldman, Clagget, Highmark, Robinson, and Pederson who made it to the big dance playing in the Great Midwest Conference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 I receive updates from team rankings after every game, the one after the last game showed a fair degree of improvement in their projections for SLU. Here they are, have fun: Saint Louis Basketball Predictions Update Nov 14, 2019 • After beating E Washingtn 82-60 yesterday, Saint Louis is now projected to finish the regular season 19-12 (10-8 Atlantic 10). • The odds that the Billikens make the NCAA tournament are up to 9%, an increase of 4% since yesterday. • We currently rank Saint Louis as the #109 team in the country, and the #7 team in the Atlantic 10. • Next game: Sun, Nov 17 vs. #22 Seton Hall. Our power ratings give the Billikens a 26% chance to win. Bracketology Projections Make NCAA Tournament Get Automatic NCAA Bid Projected Seed (if Selected) 9% 5% 12 • Saint Louis is a long shot to make the NCAA tournament. Both an at-large bid and an automatic bid from winning the Atlantic 10 tournament are unlikely. • We project the Billikens with a 1% chance to make the Sweet Sixteen, but essentially no chance to reach the Final Four. More Saint Louis Bracketology | Bracketology For All Teams Regular Season Record Projection Current Record Projection For Remaining Games Projected Final Record 3-0 (0-0 Atlantic 10) 16-12 (10-8 Atlantic 10) 19-12 (10-8 Atlantic 10) • The more precise final record expectation for Saint Louis is 18.6 wins and 12.4 losses, slightly worse than the rounded projection above. • Based on our projections, the Billikens will most likely finish the regular season with a record between 21-10 and 17-14. More Saint Louis Projections | Projections For All Atlantic 10 Teams Atlantic 10 Tournament Projections Get Atlantic 10 #1 Seed Projected Seed Win Atlantic 10 Tournament 4% 5 5% • The odds for Saint Louis to earn the #1 seed in the Atlantic 10 tournament are up 2% since yesterday. • The chance of Saint Louis winning the Atlantic 10 tournament has increased by 2% since yesterday. Full Atlantic 10 Tournament Projections Remaining Games & Win Odds Nov 17 vs. #22 Seton Hall 25.5% Preview Nov 20 vs. #333 High Point 96.4% Preview Nov 23 vs. #57 Belmont 40.8% Preview Nov 27 @ #84 Boston Col 26.6% Preview Dec 1 vs. #198 S Illinois 80.2% Preview Dec 8 vs. (N) #184 Tulane 67.8% Preview Dec 14 vs. (N) #36 Auburn 22.5% Preview Dec 17 vs. Maryville (MO) 99.5% Dec 21 vs. (N) #56 Kansas St 28.5% Preview Dec 29 vs. #332 Beth-Cook 96.4% Preview Jan 2 @ #98 Duquesne 33.0% Preview Jan 5 vs. #176 U Mass 76.8% Preview Jan 8 vs. #223 Geo Wshgtn 83.3% Preview Jan 11 @ #99 Richmond 33.2% Preview Jan 17 vs. #55 Dayton 39.4% Preview Jan 22 @ #94 Davidson 30.6% Preview Jan 26 vs. #255 Fordham 86.7% Preview Jan 29 @ #225 La Salle 64.1% Preview Feb 1 @ #168 St Josephs 52.7% Preview Feb 5 vs. #98 Duquesne 56.7% Preview Feb 8 @ #55 Dayton 19.0% Preview Feb 15 vs. #225 La Salle 83.4% Preview Feb 18 @ #176 U Mass 54.9% Preview Feb 21 vs. #47 VCU 36.7% Preview Feb 26 vs. #168 St Josephs 75.0% Preview Mar 1 @ #93 Rhode Island 29.7% Preview Mar 4 @ #141 Geo Mason 46.5% Preview Mar 7 vs. #175 St Bonavent 76.2% Preview You are receiving this email because you signed up for this newsletter at teamrankings.com. Our mailing address is: Team Rankings, LLC 111 S Highland Avenue #458 Memphis, TN 38111 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 14, 2019 Author Share Posted November 14, 2019 1 hour ago, Old guy said: Wiz, I honestly think this last game was neither an easy win (easy money as you say), nor was EWU a stinky team. EWU came well prepared and ready, they played a similar game to ours and neutralized our main players, at least for a fair amount of time. We did play better than they did and won by 22 pts which is a solid win. I do not care if this was an ugly game (which at times it was). Teamrankings which I follow upped our ranking from 131 to 109 after last night. In the same scale we have gone from 169 prior to the first game to 109 after the EWU game. We are doing just fine and still improving. I am thinking, just thinking this does not have to do much with reality it may even be a fantasy, that the way we are playing our problems with TOs and FTs are becoming less important than they were before. I think the important thing for our team is the degree of disruption we cause on the opponent's plans. For this, again in my thinking, they key player is indeed Yuri and his ability to handle the ball, penetrate and pass it (in incredible passes) to someone else. One of the plays from the game last night apparently is in a list of nationwide notable plays put out by ESPN+, or so my wife said. I have not checked this as yet. I do not mean to be argumentative but what we have this year is a very special team, quite capable of going a lot farther than most people think (probably myself included). We are currently grade out at B...which is 3 notches above average. So the computer likes us. I think my computer likes us more than Team Rankings 109....I would put the Bills in the 90s right now. For those that have been following along , you will note that our grade has dropped a little since last time. Did the computer not see our 22 pt win last night? The computer looks at our record and says nice job....then looks at our record and sees a strength of schedule with a grade of D with 1 team we have played yet to win (FGCU 0-3) and then knocks us down a notch to B. In a few weeks , with more data , these games will matter much less, however this is where we are now. As I said at the start of the season, we will have a much better read of the team after the SIU game. (game 8 ) As for the the individual stat concerns....foul shooting doesn't matter...UNTIL it does. There will a close game(s) and a foul shooting loss(es) will be painful. Yes , many teams lose games at the foul line including good shooting ones but the likelihood goes way up when you are shooting less than 50-50 . As for TOs, that is a big concern...Anytime you go 16+ in a game it is a warning sign. EWU is a TO team and fortunately they matched our 18 TOs. We will not have that luxury on Sunday against SHall. Hopefully we will match them or have less TOs on Nov 17th. TO differential . is huge....5 extra TOs can be worth 10pts...we don't have 10pts to give away. As I said above, TOs can be fixed. I am encouraged by our 9 TO performance earlier .. The computer will be watching Sunday's game closely as we move from the 3 weak sisters to an A rated team. Tonight's SHall game will figure heavily into Sunday's spread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 Glad to see your computer (ie your model) can accomodate results beyond expectations. Team rankings still has us undervalued in my opinion but that is OK too because they are changing their projections in the positive side for us. It is all part of a process. Statistics and probabilities are not written in stone, they change as results come in. I completely agree with you that the degree of change is larger at the beginning of a season, and much smaller at the end, some change is always possible however little it may be. Let me congratulate your very smart computer model for his ability to change his mind. Good programming Wiz! We can beat Seton Hall, Go Bills! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 28 minutes ago, Old guy said: I receive updates from team rankings after every game, the one after the last game showed a fair degree of improvement in their projections for SLU. Here they are, have fun: Saint Louis Basketball Predictions Update Nov 14, 2019 • After beating E Washingtn 82-60 yesterday, Saint Louis is now projected to finish the regular season 19-12 (10-8 Atlantic 10). • The odds that the Billikens make the NCAA tournament are up to 9%, an increase of 4% since yesterday. • We currently rank Saint Louis as the #109 team in the country, and the #7 team in the Atlantic 10. • Next game: Sun, Nov 17 vs. #22 Seton Hall. Our power ratings give the Billikens a 26% chance to win. Bracketology Projections Make NCAA Tournament Get Automatic NCAA Bid Projected Seed (if Selected) 9% 5% 12 • Saint Louis is a long shot to make the NCAA tournament. Both an at-large bid and an automatic bid from winning the Atlantic 10 tournament are unlikely. • We project the Billikens with a 1% chance to make the Sweet Sixteen, but essentially no chance to reach the Final Four. More Saint Louis Bracketology | Bracketology For All Teams Regular Season Record Projection Current Record Projection For Remaining Games Projected Final Record 3-0 (0-0 Atlantic 10) 16-12 (10-8 Atlantic 10) 19-12 (10-8 Atlantic 10) • The more precise final record expectation for Saint Louis is 18.6 wins and 12.4 losses, slightly worse than the rounded projection above. • Based on our projections, the Billikens will most likely finish the regular season with a record between 21-10 and 17-14. More Saint Louis Projections | Projections For All Atlantic 10 Teams Atlantic 10 Tournament Projections Get Atlantic 10 #1 Seed Projected Seed Win Atlantic 10 Tournament 4% 5 5% • The odds for Saint Louis to earn the #1 seed in the Atlantic 10 tournament are up 2% since yesterday. • The chance of Saint Louis winning the Atlantic 10 tournament has increased by 2% since yesterday. Full Atlantic 10 Tournament Projections Remaining Games & Win Odds Nov 17 vs. #22 Seton Hall 25.5% Preview Nov 20 vs. #333 High Point 96.4% Preview Nov 23 vs. #57 Belmont 40.8% Preview Nov 27 @ #84 Boston Col 26.6% Preview Dec 1 vs. #198 S Illinois 80.2% Preview Dec 8 vs. (N) #184 Tulane 67.8% Preview Dec 14 vs. (N) #36 Auburn 22.5% Preview Dec 17 vs. Maryville (MO) 99.5% Dec 21 vs. (N) #56 Kansas St 28.5% Preview Dec 29 vs. #332 Beth-Cook 96.4% Preview Jan 2 @ #98 Duquesne 33.0% Preview Jan 5 vs. #176 U Mass 76.8% Preview Jan 8 vs. #223 Geo Wshgtn 83.3% Preview Jan 11 @ #99 Richmond 33.2% Preview Jan 17 vs. #55 Dayton 39.4% Preview Jan 22 @ #94 Davidson 30.6% Preview Jan 26 vs. #255 Fordham 86.7% Preview Jan 29 @ #225 La Salle 64.1% Preview Feb 1 @ #168 St Josephs 52.7% Preview Feb 5 vs. #98 Duquesne 56.7% Preview Feb 8 @ #55 Dayton 19.0% Preview Feb 15 vs. #225 La Salle 83.4% Preview Feb 18 @ #176 U Mass 54.9% Preview Feb 21 vs. #47 VCU 36.7% Preview Feb 26 vs. #168 St Josephs 75.0% Preview Mar 1 @ #93 Rhode Island 29.7% Preview Mar 4 @ #141 Geo Mason 46.5% Preview Mar 7 vs. #175 St Bonavent 76.2% Preview You are receiving this email because you signed up for this newsletter at teamrankings.com. Our mailing address is: Team Rankings, LLC 111 S Highland Avenue #458 Memphis, TN 38111 Find a way to win Sunday and these numbers dramatically improve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 10 minutes ago, brianstl said: Find a way to win Sunday and these numbers dramatically improve. that, and I also feel pretty good about Belmont. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 55 minutes ago, brianstl said: Find a way to win Sunday and these numbers dramatically improve. Of course they will, that is the way dynamic models with no barriers operate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bauman Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 4 hours ago, CBFan said: The depth of our team is the difference, when a player struggled we did not have anyone on the bench to go to. On Saturday it was Goodwin and Jacobs, last night is was French, Thatch and Collins with help from Perkins and Weaver and we still have not gotten through our whole bench that can come in and play quality minuets with Hargrove. Our 4 and 5 positions is the only positions that lacks depth so I like seeing Bell and Hankton playing and improving. Our outside shooting from so many Weaver, Perkins, Goodwin, Jacobs, Thatch should keep teams defense from packing in the middle allowing the werewolf to score a lot so far. This teams reminds me of the Spoonhour team with Waldman, Clagget, Highmark, Robinson, and Pederson who made it to the big dance playing in the Great Midwest Conference. CBF, I really enjoy your posts, BUT I think, when talking about outside shooting, you have to include Jimerson. I think this was just an oversight on your part. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CBFan Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 1 minute ago, bauman said: CBF, I really enjoy your posts, BUT I think, when talking about outside shooting, you have to include Jimerson. I think this was just an oversight on your part. Yes it was my bad thank you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.