The Wiz Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Another good win against Valpo....Speaking of Goodwin, he missed his another double double by 1 rebound but still scored a team leading 22 pts. A tip o' the cap to Jacobs too, who added 20 pts. With another strong win....the Bills have moved up to B+. The Bills are now at the top of The Wiz's A-10 standings ...tied with 2 other teams that have a B+ ranking....VCU and Duq. The B+ at this point is not a forecast....it is more of a ...so far, so good. So let's see what we are looking at with EWU. They are a C- team (a slight step down from Valpo).. EWU opened against Portland Bible College and whupped them 107-25....53 pts scored on TOs....more than double the points PBC scored in the whole game....So why am I wasting space talking about an EWU game that doesn't count. None of the stats matter, right? Well not quite....some of the data services including one of the ones I use included the PBC stats as part of the EWU YTD stat sheet. This not only gives a distorted view of the Eagles (on the upside) but may mess up some of the betting lines. In any case , I caught it when I wondered how a C- team was putting up Duke type stats. Getting back to the real world, EWU has played only 1 game so far against a very poor Seattle team (F). So even leaving out the Bible college their numbers are inflated. Let's look at the report card.... ..............................SLU...............................EWU.............................................SLU....................................EWU ..................................................OFF......................................................................................DEF............... PPG.........................B+...............................B-....................................................C...................................B- FG%..........................B.................................D+.. ............................................ ...D...................................C- 3Pt%..........................B................................F+...................................................F.....................................A+ FT%...........................D-...............................C............................................................................................. Reb............................B-...............................B+...................................................B+...................................F OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF rebs = opp reb .. Top 100 ITN Stls....Goodwin ...48th Assts...Collins....27th As mentioned above EWU's only opponent Seattle is a very poor team , yet EWU still had poor shooting numbers. While it is only 1 game , it does seem to indicate this will be the worst shooting team we have faced so far.. What we need to do to win ( In future posts to be known as WWN2D2W)---Slash ....48/33/58....on FTs , I have gone from ....63 ...I can dream... to 58...surprise me. Need to hold Davison to 15 pts....Aiken to 5 assts.....We need to dominate on Rebs...by 10....and win the TO battle...by 4 Bottom line....This should be a Billiken win....I feel like we still haven't reached our potential yet....if it happens this game ...could be a blowout....Go Bills Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 I guess there was no divine assistance provided when EWU whupped the Portland Bible College 107 - 25. Yes, we should win this one, and I hope your estimate of a 13 pt. lead is far too low. I am pretty sure we are not yet close to reaching our potential for this year. I think we have a fair distance to go before we reach this level. I have no doubt we will be ranked in the top 100s (to say the least) by the time the ooc is over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VeniceMenace Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 29 minutes ago, The Wiz said: Another good win against Valpo....Speaking of Goodwin, he missed his another double double by 1 rebound but still scored a team leading 22 pts. A tip o' the cap to Jacobs too, who added 20 pts. With another strong win....the Bills have moved up to B+. The Bills are now at the top of The Wiz's A-10 standings ...tied with 2 other teams that have a B+ ranking....VCU and Duq. The B+ at this point is not a forecast....it is more of a ...so far, so good. So let's see what we are looking at with EWU. They are a C- team (a slight step down from Valpo).. EWU opened against Portland Bible College and whupped them 107-25....53 pts scored on TOs....more than double the points PBC scored in the whole game....So why am I wasting space talking about an EWU game that doesn't count. None of the stats matter, right? Well not quite....some of the data services including one of the ones I use included the PBC stats as part of the EWU YTD stat sheet. This not only gives a distorted view of the Eagles (on the upside) but may mess up some of the betting lines. In any case , I caught it when I wondered how a C- team was putting up Duke type stats. Getting back to the real world, EWU has played only 1 game so far against a very poor Seattle team (F). So even leaving out the Bible college their numbers are inflated. Let's look at the report card.... ..............................SLU...............................EWU.............................................SLU....................................EWU ..................................................OFF......................................................................................DEF............... PPG.........................B+...............................B-....................................................C...................................B- FG%..........................B.................................D+.. ............................................ ...D...................................C- 3Pt%..........................B................................F+...................................................F.....................................A+ FT%...........................D-...............................C............................................................................................. Reb............................B-...............................B+...................................................B+...................................F OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF rebs = opp reb .. Top 100 ITN Stls....Goodwin ...48th Assts...Collins....27th As mentioned above EWU's only opponent Seattle is a very poor team , yet EWU still had poor shooting numbers. While it is only 1 game , it does seem to indicate this will be the worst shooting team we have faced so far.. What we need to do to win ( In future posts to be known as WWN2D2W)---Slash ....48/33/58....on FTs , I have gone from ....63 ...I can dream... to 58...surprise me. Need to hold Davison to 15 pts....Aiken to 5 assts.....We need to dominate on Rebs...by 10....and win the TO battle...by 4 Bottom line....This should be a Billiken win....I feel like we still haven't reached our potential yet....if it happens this game ...could be a blowout....Go Bills Wiz, the coaches in the Big Sky Conference picked Eastern Washington to win the conference this year...EW returns four starters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills10 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 40 minutes ago, The Wiz said: Another good win against Valpo....Speaking of Goodwin, he missed his another double double by 1 rebound but still scored a team leading 22 pts. A tip o' the cap to Jacobs too, who added 20 pts. With another strong win....the Bills have moved up to B+. The Bills are now at the top of The Wiz's A-10 standings ...tied with 2 other teams that have a B+ ranking....VCU and Duq. The B+ at this point is not a forecast....it is more of a ...so far, so good. So let's see what we are looking at with EWU. They are a C- team (a slight step down from Valpo).. EWU opened against Portland Bible College and whupped them 107-25....53 pts scored on TOs....more than double the points PBC scored in the whole game....So why am I wasting space talking about an EWU game that doesn't count. None of the stats matter, right? Well not quite....some of the data services including one of the ones I use included the PBC stats as part of the EWU YTD stat sheet. This not only gives a distorted view of the Eagles (on the upside) but may mess up some of the betting lines. In any case , I caught it when I wondered how a C- team was putting up Duke type stats. Getting back to the real world, EWU has played only 1 game so far against a very poor Seattle team (F). So even leaving out the Bible college their numbers are inflated. Let's look at the report card.... ..............................SLU...............................EWU.............................................SLU....................................EWU ..................................................OFF......................................................................................DEF............... PPG.........................B+...............................B-....................................................C...................................B- FG%..........................B.................................D+.. ............................................ ...D...................................C- 3Pt%..........................B................................F+...................................................F.....................................A+ FT%...........................D-...............................C............................................................................................. Reb............................B-...............................B+...................................................B+...................................F OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF rebs = opp reb .. Top 100 ITN Stls....Goodwin ...48th Assts...Collins....27th As mentioned above EWU's only opponent Seattle is a very poor team , yet EWU still had poor shooting numbers. While it is only 1 game , it does seem to indicate this will be the worst shooting team we have faced so far.. What we need to do to win ( In future posts to be known as WWN2D2W)---Slash ....48/33/58....on FTs , I have gone from ....63 ...I can dream... to 58...surprise me. Need to hold Davison to 15 pts....Aiken to 5 assts.....We need to dominate on Rebs...by 10....and win the TO battle...by 4 Bottom line....This should be a Billiken win....I feel like we still haven't reached our potential yet....if it happens this game ...could be a blowout....Go Bills Wiz I believe in your initial assessment of the season you said your system usually only allows a half letter grade movement throughout the year. Since we moved up so quickly do we still have about the same chance of moving up to that next letter grade? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenbill Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Not attempting to speak for a stats virtuoso like The Wiz, but I think his grades and numbers are not fully accurate until the Bills have played 8 D-1 games. Until then, stats from the previous year are worked in to get an evolving, but not completely accurate view of a team’s performance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills10 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 1 minute ago, billikenbill said: Not attempting to speak for a stats virtuoso like The Wiz, but I think his grades and numbers are not fully accurate until the Bills have played 8 D-1 games. Until then, stats from the previous year are worked in to get an evolving, but not completely accurate view of a team’s performance. Yes I remember him staying that as well. I just am wondering if moving up early changes the ceiling and the floor or if we are still projecting to be in the b- to b+ range in the end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 11, 2019 Author Share Posted November 11, 2019 11 minutes ago, bills10 said: Yes I remember him staying that as well. I just am wondering if moving up early changes the ceiling and the floor or if we are still projecting to be in the b- to b+ range in the end. Billikenbill is correct....It will take 8 games for me to have enough data to make predictions based on real data. To answer your question....we will have to wait till after the SIU game (game 8 ) to change the prediction parameters. At this point , this is still considered a normal move ....2 notches ...B- to B+. Here is an excerpt from my preseason prediction outlook...... " Here is how the season looks to play out....A good start leads to some early kool aid drinking and NCAA talk....then reality hits when we play Seton Hall....this leads to a downturn as play turns mixed going forward... at this point the board declares the season is over. Optimism rears its head again as conf play begins ...a weak Jan and the talk shifts to 20-21....but then we gel and have a good Feb which leads to sugar plum fairies and A-10 tourney championship talk...the board dreams of a a miracle repeat." As I stated in the original post of this thread, I think the proper way to look at this season now is ....so far so good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 11, 2019 Author Share Posted November 11, 2019 1 hour ago, VeniceMenace said: Wiz, the coaches in the Big Sky Conference picked Eastern Washington to win the conference this year...EW returns four starters. The Big Sky is a D+ rated conference....The Mo Valley is a B conf....I have EWU finishing 3rd to 5th in the Big Sky .. In the Missouri Valley, I have Valpo finishing 7th to 9th (out of 10 teams) . Even if EWU finished first in the Big Sky, it wouldn't change the fact that if EWU were in the MO. Valley it would finish in last place....nor the more important fact that Valpo is a better team at this time than EWU. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 I will say this now for the record and you can reference later on in the season. I will not be surprised if the Bills end this year in A territory, how high can they go I have no idea. I think the limit of the move allowed by the system to 2 steps up or down is basically placing a limit of 2 std deviations up or down. This, of course, and provided a normal distribution of all possible outcomes (which is not necessarily always the case) fully encompasses 95% of all possible outcomes. This is basic statistics after all. I mention this because this leaves 5% of all possible outcomes going outside the limits both up or down. Again this assumes a normal distribution of all outcomes. However, as it happens in the market, the skew of the distribution curve does not necessarily follow the "normal" distribution. In truth a normal distribution curve is just one specific case in the family of distribution curves. Amplitudes, skew and kurtosis may vary. What I mean to say is that sports events have enormous numbers of not easily controllable variables involved. These will affect the shape and location of the overall distribution curve for any particular year. The change does not have to be marked, but it will be there. So, what I would be interested in is the 5% of all outcomes left out of the curve by the 2 std deviation limit. Can we go farther up or down than the 2 std deviation limit? My answer is yes, although doing this would not be a common event and require a special set of circumstances. Therefore allow me my own fantasies about the Bills ending the season as an A team (-, +, or just flat A) by the end of the year. I mentioned the market earlier in this post. Take the SP 500 as an example. When the SP gains money for a year, the distribution curve skews to the right with the amplitude and kurtosis remaining the same. When the SP loses money for a year, the distribution curve skews left with the amplitude and kurtosis remaining the same. This will work exactly the same way with your own portfolio. But now, here comes the interesting part. Depending upon the degree of diversification of your portfolio, you will approach the amplitude and kurtosis of the SP distribution curve as the degree of diversification of the portfolio increases. On the other hand if you decide to develop a non diversified, concentrated portfolio, the distribution curve for the year will be a lot flatter (less amplitude) than the SP's, and the degree of kurtosis will change to give a much wider distribution curve with much larger tails both up or down. You may not have heard this ever before, but it is the way it actually works for the market in the real world. Modern portfolio theory aims to highly diversify portfolios according to a complex set of rules, creating portfolios with characteristics approaching the SP's. This will make your portfolio approach, but never exceed, the performance of the SP. On the other hand, if you concentrate instead of diversify your portfolio you will be playing for longer tails in its distribution curve, which will allow greater gains or greater losses than the SP's for any given year. Most of you may find this pretty boring but I find it fascinating, both as it applies to the market and as it may well apply to sports. A winning team will see its performance distribution curve skewing to the right, a losing team will skew to the left. Again, in order to beat the system, a team has to promote changes that will give a distribution curve of performance results with long, fat tails. I happen to think this is what is likely to happen with the Bills this year, allowing us to exceed the 2 sd limit of your model and get our performance level into the 5% tail area of the distribution curve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 If computers ran the world, you wouldn't play the games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 You forget that a massive social experiment, which ultimately failed after 60+ years, was carried out by the Soviet Union. This experiment used scientific and expert opinions to set centralized rules for economic development and consumption. It ultimately went bankrupt and failed. Computers might improve the performance rating you might wish to assign the Soviet Union's social experiment, they might last longer than the Soviet Union did if they were given the task of running the world. However ultimately they would fail, probably because of bankruptcy. You see the best these things can do, even juiced by AI, is to model the future and then manage the model. They will fail in the attempt, because all math based and statistical based models are flawed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 -interesting to see our 3pt grades reversed from prior seasons, B on offense and F on defense Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 11, 2019 Author Share Posted November 11, 2019 1 hour ago, Cowboy said: -interesting to see our 3pt grades reversed from prior seasons, B on offense and F on defense It is interesting. I think the defensive shooting numbers will get better as time goes on. We are still learning new defensive sets plus we have run into some hot shooting 3 pt teams. EWU is not a good shooting team. If they post good numbers against us (40%+ from 3) then it will be time to reevaluate. I think the offensive shooting numbers show real improvement. While it is too early to say if we will finish as a B shooting team , I think it is obvious we will not be an F shooting team this year. Of course, we are talking about FG% and 3pt %. FTs look the same as last year at this point. . Last year's 65.2% was good for an F. Remember, I am grading on the curve so it is not an unreasonable expectation to hope to get above F. This year we are 56.8%...we will need at least 64% to get over F- by the end of the year. Btw... I would be remiss if I didn't mention that Collins is tied for # 1 ITN..@100% (2-2) in 3pt shooting. He will need to make 1 shot (1-1) against EWU to remain on the list. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3star_recruit Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 42 minutes ago, The Wiz said: It is interesting. I think the defensive shooting numbers will get better as time goes on. We are still learning new defensive sets plus we have run into some hot shooting 3 pt teams. EWU is not a good shooting team. If they post good numbers against us (40%+ from 3) then it will be time to reevaluate. I think the offensive shooting numbers show real improvement. While it is too early to say if we will finish as a B shooting team , I think it is obvious we will not be an F shooting team this year. Of course, we are talking about FG% and 3pt %. FTs look the same as last year at this point. . Last year's 65.2% was good for an F. Remember, I am grading on the curve so it is not an unreasonable expectation is' to hope to get above F. This year we are 56.8%...we will need at least 64% to get over F- by the end of the year. Btw... I would be remiss if I didn't mention that Collins is tied for # 1 ITN..@100% (2-2) in 3pt shooting. He will need to make 1 shot (1-1) against EWU to remain on the list. The notion that we could just replace DJ Foreman's contributions on offense and defense with a freshman big or small forward is one of the things that looked good on paper. Unfortunately basketball games are not played on paper. They're played on TVs. We're going to be really good once Bell and Hargrove catch up to what's going on. Hopefully that's this season. If not, there's always next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glazedandconfused Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 15 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said: The notion that we could just replace DJ Foreman's contributions on offense and defense with a freshman big or small forward is one of the things that looked good on paper. Unfortunately basketball games are not played on paper. They're played on TVs. We're going to be really good once Bell and Hargrove catch up to what's going on. Hopefully that's this season. If not, there's always next year. DJ Foreman was OK defensively and pretty bad offensively. And he was worse in conference play. We're already getting fine production from his replacements. Bess and Isabell are who we have to replace. Littlebill, RUBillsFan and Zink like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmbilliken Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Wiz, is it you don’t expect a move of more than two places from the grade established after game 8 or from the grade at the beginning of the year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenblue Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 3 hours ago, Taj79 said: If computers ran the world, you wouldn't play the games. Agreed Taj..I am into manalytics not analytics..ask the Houston Rockets how well that has worked out for them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EssEllYou Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Sagarin has SLU ranked at 63! I particularly value Sagarin over Kenpom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clocktoweraccords2004 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 We are doing well with 4 guards. If Bell can score he will be a threat but I see no reason to have Bell on the court with French, taking away from our many guards Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Plus Hankton did pretty good doing HF old job of being a 4 and playing as a 5. All 3 of the bigs played 45 m vs 80 allotted 4 & 5 spots. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billikens4life Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 18 minutes ago, Clocktoweraccords2004 said: We are doing well with 4 guards. If Bell can score he will be a threat but I see no reason to have Bell on the court with French, taking away from our many guards I think you might be missing the true benefit of starting Bell. Even if he only plays 3-4 minutes to start the game, he keeps Has out of foul trouble during that time because Has doesn't have to guard the 5. Old guy and dennis_w like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dennis_w Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Ford has reasons for playing bell, even if others cant see it, keeping french out of foul trouble, getting him minutes now so he can make a bigger contribution later etc HenryB likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUBillsFan Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 1 hour ago, billikenblue said: Agreed Taj..I am into manalytics not analytics..ask the Houston Rockets how well that has worked out for them. The Rockets have averaged over 50 wins a season (pro-rating the shortened 2011-12 season over 82 games) during Daryl Morey's 12 year run as their executive with 9 playoff appearances. They haven't won a title, but that's pretty damn good. I'm fairly certain they have the best cumulative regular season record during that time frame outside of the Spurs. The reason they don't have a title is because of some unfortunate playoff luck and their peak corresponding with the Warriors dynasty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUBillsFan Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 1 hour ago, Billikens4life said: I think you might be missing the true benefit of starting Bell. Even if he only plays 3-4 minutes to start the game, he keeps Has out of foul trouble during that time because Has doesn't have to guard the 5. People keep saying this and I understand the idea. However, so far we have a 2 game sample with 1 game Has avoiding foul trouble and the 2nd game Has fouling out. I know that giving Bell some starts/PT should pay dividends down the road - keeping Has fresher not having to bang against 5s all game, keeping Bell motivated, helping Bell develop faster, etc. It seems the jury is still out on it helping Has avoid foul trouble. In my opinion Has is the one who has to keep Has out of foul trouble. He needs to be better at recognizing early how tight a game is being called and adjust accordingly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 12, 2019 Author Share Posted November 12, 2019 7 hours ago, kmbilliken said: Wiz, is it you don’t expect a move of more than two places from the grade established after game 8 or from the grade at the beginning of the year? Good question....The overall game forecast doesn't change much from preseason to game 8....For example, last year's preseason was correct on all 14 teams ...ie all 14 finished within 2 notches.... 8 teams were 1 notch off or exactly right ......at the 8 game mark those within 2 notches came in at 14 teams correct again...... those within 1 or even came in at 9 teams.. So generally, the preseason forecast is pretty accurate with not much difference bu game 8. The even and one notch gets better using real data. However, the main difference using real data is the spreads...they become more accurate not only with the eighth game but each game thereafter which should improve calling the wins and losses correctly. Finally, there is the issue of trending....which is separate from a season grade....As an example , last year the Bills finished the season with a B- which really wasn't indicative of how they were playing at the end of the season....Enter the trend line ...which weights how a team is doing in the here and now as it weights the more recent games more heavily. While the Bills overall grade was stuck at B-....the trend line at the end was showing A- (A- is Dance worthy) which meant there was a chance to win the A-10 as we were one of the best teams going in....not using the season grade but the trend grade. The reason I am discussing it here is because this may happen again this year. If we do gel again in Feb. the trend line will become important. Unfortunately, last year we got a bad draw in Va Tech....we were B-/ A-....they were A+/A+ The next 2 games will be important to The Bills....Going 2-0 ...which is possible...could lead to some interesting numbers for Billiken fans. Adman likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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