Taj79 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Wrapping up last night in the A10 ....... Auburn appeared to be a six-man team with a pretty good to great backcourt of Doughty (former VCU) , McCormick and Okoro (although he was listed as a forward). Wiley didn't do much at center except start and Anfernee McLemore got most of the minutes as the sixth man. Okoro is 6'6". Purifoy is 6'7". And McLemore is also 6'7" so their front line isn't huge by any means ---- but athletic. Their slash was 48/25/63 so they didn't really shoot all that well. Davidson was somewhat abysmal other than shooting 87%from the line ---- 33% from the field and 35% from three. Grady had six (two off a steal and breakaway); Gudmundsson has 7. Frammpton with five threes and Jones with 4 kept them in it making nine of their ten threes. Brajkovc was shut out. Jones is a freshman guard from Minnesota, not to be confused with lumbering big man Bates Jones now a sophomore (Daniel Jones brother). Four guys with four fouls. Not impressive. Senior KiShawn Pritchett did not play and may not play all year due to recurring knee issues. Not that he would have made much of a difference. Neither team showed much in terms of a bench. VCU was going down and out of momentum until Mike'L Simms stepped up and hit two three pointers late. He was o-for-6 at that point of the game from the floor. Both were fromdead on top of the key. This put VCU up four on each make. Isaac vann twisted an ankle and did not finish. Santos-Silva looked dreadful, scoring three. The offense is just not there yet for VCU as they shot 37% from the floor and 38%from three. North Texas had the ball with ten seconds to go to attempt a tying three and never got a shot off. They took their last timeout to set that up. Nice play call. Mason pretty much kept Longwood at bay all night. Longwood would close to two or three and Mason woudl go back up by 8 or ten. With Kier out, Mason is as Javon Greene and Jamal Hartwell II go. Greene was unconscious for a spurt in the second half and ended with 18; Hartwell went one better. First navy then Longwood. Nice OOC there Paulsen. As noted Richmond came from 10 down in the last 1:20 to send the game to OT andwin. St. Francis couldn;t cover Nick Sherrod ine the closing stretch and he ended with 27 on opening night. Then in OT, the Red Flash had their pockets picked by Jacob Gilyard. He had five steals and I swear they were all in the closing and/or OT. Golden avoided injury but sat out a long period while nursing and ankle injury. Whilemany will say Ryan Daly is the A10 transfer of the year, watch out for Richmond's Blake Francis. Only 6'1" but a gunner. Richmond still has no bench but their starters are decent if not smallish with Francis and Gilyard. 89% of their scoring came from their starters. The Bonnies were without Osunniyi and his knee and Vermont did just enough to stay up by six or eight throughout the game. The Boinnies may have lost by two but it was really four as they stole and scored with .5 left to make the final what it was. They did get 10 off the bench from frosh Justin Winston and Ipkeze followed up his 10 on opening night with 11. Lofton went off for 14 and Welch had 13 and I still believe they are overrated on their talent this year. Osunniyi will add to their defensive prowess but he's no real scorer yet. Their slash was 31/15/77 so I still think they arev more offensively-challenged than we have been these last few years. Lots more today as Umass (-4) is at Fairfield, Dayton (-12.5) hosts Indiana State, Geedubya (-12) hoist Howard, La Salle (+1) hosts Iona, and inthe big one Rhodey (+11.5) is at #7 Maryland. And in th ebigger one, we (-9) host Valpo. Go Bills. Love this time of year! Old guy likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David King Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 I thought this was supposed to be an up year for the A-10? So far, almost every team in the conference sucks, except the Bills (and maybe Duquesne). TFord, please get us the hell out of this God forsaken conference! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, David King said: I thought this was supposed to be an up year for the A-10? So far, almost every team in the conference sucks, except the Bills (and maybe Duquesne). TFord, please get us the hell out of this God forsaken conference! We're only two games into the season! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 3 hours ago, Quality Is Job 1 said: I would resist the temptation to read too deeply into Bayesian numbers. Last year's numbers really don't tell us anything about what will happen this year. I am not reading deeply into these numbers, and I am not using Bayesian or any kind of math in this estimate. I mentioned the similarity to the market (and yes I am an MD by profession, but I have traded the market since the early 1970s) which is for me a similar situation. You do not know what is going to happen because it is not possible to make valid predictions about the market or about sports for that matter. What I am doing is a rough calculation of probabilities in my mind, based upon what can be qualified as incomplete and to some degree non Bayesian parameters. In this case, my interest is in assessing how accurate the preseason evaluations and rankings for VCU, Richmond, and St. Bona were. As you know, based upon this extremely fragmentary and inconclusive set of data, I am leaning to say that all 3 of these teams were over valued and over ranked at the time of the preseason rankings. Period. Can I be wrong?, of course I can be wrong, could I possibly be correct?, of course I could be correct as well. Let's say that VCU, Richmond and St. Bona look to me less formidable as opponents than they appeared prior to the initial games. I am aware I may be wrong, but why not share my thoughts with others? The truth is, as you say, that it is too early to say. So, that is fine with me as well. I probably jumped the gun in this case. I am an optimist, and I am drinking blue Kool-Aid this year. Go Bills! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 13 minutes ago, Old guy said: I am not reading deeply into these numbers, and I am not using Bayesian or any kind of math in this estimate. I mentioned the similarity to the market (and yes I am an MD by profession, but I have traded the market since the early 1970s) which is for me a similar situation. You do not know what is going to happen because it is not possible to make valid predictions about the market or about sports for that matter. What I am doing is a rough calculation of probabilities in my mind, based upon what can be qualified as incomplete and to some degree non Bayesian parameters. In this case, my interest is in assessing how accurate the preseason evaluations and rankings for VCU, Richmond, and St. Bona were. As you know, based upon this extremely fragmentary and inconclusive set of data, I am leaning to say that all 3 of these teams were over valued and over ranked at the time of the preseason rankings. Period. Can I be wrong?, of course I can be wrong, could I possibly be correct?, of course I could be correct as well. Let's say that VCU, Richmond and St. Bona look to me less formidable as opponents than they appeared prior to the initial games. I am aware I may be wrong, but why not share my thoughts with others? The truth is, as you say, that it is too early to say. So, that is fine with me as well. I probably jumped the gun in this case. I am an optimist, and I am drinking blue Kool-Aid this year. Go Bills! I'm not talking about any input you add; I'm saying that any formulas you're looking at to try to predict scores and outcomes are Bayesian. These metrics — including those of The Wiz — are Bayesian until the teams are "connected" in December, at which time they'll discard last year's numbers. In other words, these statistical formulas are making presumptions based last year's results, for now. It could be that VCU, Richmond, and St. Bonaventure, etc., are weaker or stronger than expected, but it also could be that the teams they're playing are stronger than expected. Once last year's numbers are removed from the equations, it will be easier to flesh that out. I have no problem with your sharing your opinions. I'm just saying I think you should be more skeptical of the numbers you're alluding to in forming those opinions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3star_recruit Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 40 minutes ago, Old guy said: I am not reading deeply into these numbers, and I am not using Bayesian or any kind of math in this estimate. I mentioned the similarity to the market (and yes I am an MD by profession, but I have traded the market since the early 1970s) which is for me a similar situation. You do not know what is going to happen because it is not possible to make valid predictions about the market or about sports for that matter. What I am doing is a rough calculation of probabilities in my mind, based upon what can be qualified as incomplete and to some degree non Bayesian parameters. In this case, my interest is in assessing how accurate the preseason evaluations and rankings for VCU, Richmond, and St. Bona were. As you know, based upon this extremely fragmentary and inconclusive set of data, I am leaning to say that all 3 of these teams were over valued and over ranked at the time of the preseason rankings. Period. Can I be wrong?, of course I can be wrong, could I possibly be correct?, of course I could be correct as well. Let's say that VCU, Richmond and St. Bona look to me less formidable as opponents than they appeared prior to the initial games. I am aware I may be wrong, but why not share my thoughts with others? The truth is, as you say, that it is too early to say. So, that is fine with me as well. I probably jumped the gun in this case. I am an optimist, and I am drinking blue Kool-Aid this year. Go Bills! The top A10 teams have done exactly what they were expected to do. The consensus top 4 are VCU, Davidson, Dayton and Rhode Island. Davidson lost to a ranked Auburn squad, VCU is 2-0 and Rhode Island is 1-0. Dayton's opener is at 6 pm today. If VCU knocks off LSU on Wednesday, nobody is going to remember that they struggled against North Texas. Nobody expects Rhode Island to beat Maryland tonight, so the pressure is all on the Terrapins. Go A-10! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Major Majerus Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 5 hours ago, Quality Is Job 1 said: I would resist the temptation to read too deeply into Bayesian numbers. Last year's numbers really don't tell us anything about what will happen this year. Atomic numbers - that’s where the money is Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLU_Nick Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 2 hours ago, David King said: I thought this was supposed to be an up year for the A-10? So far, almost every team in the conference sucks, except the Bills (and maybe Duquesne). TFord, please get us the hell out of this God forsaken conference! Minus the chicken little of exiting the conference, I am also frustrated by the performances of our fellow A-10 brethren. St Bonaventure especially. Every year they suck Nov-Jan and then March they upset everyone to get to the conference championship game. At this rate it seems, like a 3rd place finish in conference will still force us to win the automatic bid. Davidson not really competing with Auburn was also disappointing. I expect the national talking heads to once again completely disrespect the A10 in “comparison discussions” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gobillsgo Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, SLU_Nick said: Minus the chicken little of exiting the conference, I am also frustrated by the performances of our fellow A-10 brethren. St Bonaventure especially. Every year they suck Nov-Jan and then March they upset everyone to get to the conference championship game. At this rate it seems, like a 3rd place finish in conference will still force us to win the automatic bid. Davidson not really competing with Auburn was also disappointing. I expect the national talking heads to once again completely disrespect the A10 in “comparison discussions” I was thinking about St Bona the other day. Mark Schmidt always gets so much credit for what his teams do in March, but where is the blame for how poorly they come out every year? A better first month and a half last year and they’re probably dancing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3star_recruit Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, gobillsgo said: I was thinking about St Bona the other day. Mark Schmidt always gets so much credit for what his teams do in March, but where is the blame for how poorly they come out every year? A better first month and a half last year and they’re probably dancing. Bona has had a key injury three straight years in the beginning of the season. They're snakebitten in November. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gobillsgo Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said: Bona has had a key injury three straight years in the beginning of the season. They're snakebitten in November. Even so, they’ve had some terrible losses to some really bad teams... especially last season. But I do have to give Schmidt credit for how he has them on a roll every February and March. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted November 9, 2019 Author Share Posted November 9, 2019 Auburn showed how to take care of Davidson: shut down Grady and Godmundson. Frampton can't be left open either. He was their main man last night I feel good with Thatch on Godmundson and JGood on Grady. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted November 9, 2019 Author Share Posted November 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, gobillsgo said: Even so, they’ve had some terrible losses to some really bad teams... especially last season. But I do have to give Schmidt credit for how he has them on a roll every February and March. They always seem to have their way with us no matter where we play them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moytoy12 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 14 minutes ago, slu72 said: They always seem to have their way with us no matter where we play them. Except in the A-10 championship game... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsBeliever!!! Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Not A-10 news but Myles Powell got injured in today’s game. Won’t play against Michigan State and will be at least limited against us Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Lasalle OT NBCSN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 La Salle went up 20 at half over a tourney team in Iona only to see Iona tie it on a three with 4 seconds to go. In overtime, Iona was spent and did not score. 70 to 64 La Salle. Umass went down into Connecticut and beat Fairfield by two in what was billed as Tre mitchell's homecoming. The stud four star scored 18 anddi not disappoint. Geedubya beat crosstown Howard easily by 14. Geedubya started four forwards and Jameer Jr. while Howard's front lien was a pair of 6'7"duded one of whom fouled out. Toro with 22. Us, Dayton and Rhodey all tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 4 hours ago, Quality Is Job 1 said: I'm not talking about any input you add; I'm saying that any formulas you're looking at to try to predict scores and outcomes are Bayesian. These metrics — including those of The Wiz — are Bayesian until the teams are "connected" in December, at which time they'll discard last year's numbers. In other words, these statistical formulas are making presumptions based last year's results, for now. It could be that VCU, Richmond, and St. Bonaventure, etc., are weaker or stronger than expected, but it also could be that the teams they're playing are stronger than expected. Once last year's numbers are removed from the equations, it will be easier to flesh that out. I have no problem with your sharing your opinions. I'm just saying I think you should be more skeptical of the numbers you're alluding to in forming those opinions. What I am doing is in no way Bayesian and uses no formulas of any kind. It is just my personal opinion based upon market experience that apparently is not understood or accepted as valid by you. Agree with 3 star, if VCU beats LSU everyone will forget their struggles against N. Texas. I am serious now, there is a lot of information out there that is neither exact nor based upon math or formulas of any kind, and despite these "flaws" can be used successfully in a regular basis to estimate probabilities. For example, VCU goes against LSU 11/13, next Wednesday. It is supposedly a fairly even match (this is according to teamrankings, not me). We will see what happens. Prior to the game LSU is ranked 33 (1 win so far, SEC), VCU 48 (2 wins so far, A10). Keep in mind that the stats (provided by teamrankings) for LSU are a fair degree better than VCU's prior to their 11/13 game. What kind of Bayesian solution to this game would you say is appropriate? My answer to that is that Bayesian stuff is not the end all or be all of every estimate of probability of any given outcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted November 10, 2019 Author Share Posted November 10, 2019 2 hours ago, moytoy12 said: Except in the A-10 championship game... Thank Heaven they missed the last 2 shots, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 59 minutes ago, Taj79 said: La Salle went up 20 at half over a tourney team in Iona only to see Iona tie it on a three with 4 seconds to go. In overtime, Iona was spent and did not score. 70 to 64 La Salle. Umass went down into Connecticut and beat Fairfield by two in what was billed as Tre mitchell's homecoming. The stud four star scored 18 anddi not disappoint. Geedubya beat crosstown Howard easily by 14. Geedubya started four forwards and Jameer Jr. while Howard's front lien was a pair of 6'7"duded one of whom fouled out. Toro with 22. Us, Dayton and Rhodey all tonight. that was a fun one to watch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David King Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Good half, but Bills gotta play smarter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistol Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Rhody and #7 Maryland are locked in a 1-point battle late in the first half. UMass snuck out of Fairfield with a 2-point win. La Salle beat Iona 70-64 in OT at home. GW also won at home, 76-62 over Howard. Dayton had a similar game against Indiana State that SLU had against Valpo. Kept them at arm's distance, let them back in, hung on for a win. The second half was 48-48, but UD won by 5. Through 2 games (for most A10 teams), we're seeing a lot of narrow wins. I still think the conference is up from last season but we have to put some of these lower conference teams away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 2 hours ago, Old guy said: What I am doing is in no way Bayesian and uses no formulas of any kind. It is just my personal opinion based upon market experience that apparently is not understood or accepted as valid by you. Agree with 3 star, if VCU beats LSU everyone will forget their struggles against N. Texas. I am serious now, there is a lot of information out there that is neither exact nor based upon math or formulas of any kind, and despite these "flaws" can be used successfully in a regular basis to estimate probabilities. For example, VCU goes against LSU 11/13, next Wednesday. It is supposedly a fairly even match (this is according to teamrankings, not me). We will see what happens. Prior to the game LSU is ranked 33 (1 win so far, SEC), VCU 48 (2 wins so far, A10). Keep in mind that the stats (provided by teamrankings) for LSU are a fair degree better than VCU's prior to their 11/13 game. What kind of Bayesian solution to this game would you say is appropriate? My answer to that is that Bayesian stuff is not the end all or be all of every estimate of probability of any given outcome. I give up. You're obviously not understanding what I'm saying. I think "Bayesian" is throwing you off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Maryland’s supreme talent ran away from Rhodes. Rhodey is still Dowtin, Russell and Langevine and three guys can win in the A10, maybe pull an upset here or there, but eventually fail in the long run. Tate, Toppin, Martin and Harris added little to Rhodey’s efforts last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CBFan Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 52 minutes ago, Taj79 said: Maryland’s supreme talent ran away from Rhodes. Rhodey is still Dowtin, Russell and Langevine and three guys can win in the A10, maybe pull an upset here or there, but eventually fail in the long run. Tate, Toppin, Martin and Harris added little to Rhodey’s efforts last night. I watched the second half when I got home and Rhodey could not do anything offensively in the second half. My only concern is controlling Langevine with just French if he is in foul trouble. Come on Jimmy Bell we need you. Our guards are special and will impose their will on the A10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.