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The Wiz

The Bills over FGCU by 6

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So what do we have here?  Well , one thing we don't have is numbers. .  This is strictly a predictive model forecast as opposed to one based on real data.  In addition,  FGCU mirrors us in that they have a bunch of new players coming in (5)...So they have some of the same issues we do ....melding a team together , creating chemistry, trying to figure out who to play etc.  But this is where the comparison ends. They are not us.  Think of them as Ky Wesleyan only better.. Like the game against KW , we are more talented , more athletic, and have more depth.  They,  like K Wes,  are shooters ( 3 pt shooters) who don't play much defense.  We should easily out rebound them, though we won't get 50 again.  Also like KW, if we bother them they will turn the ball over...probably in the 16-20 range.

So we got this right?...Hmmm,  not so fast...Remember , FGCU is K Wes style...but they are not K Wes ....they are better.

Bottom line....This is not an  easy game to forecast  from a spread point of view ....with so many new  players  on both teams.  However, from a win/ loss angle it is easier... we should win....provided we play a decent game...which is not  a given at this point.  A decent slash would be 48/ 33/ 65....we need to dominate in rebounds and TOs...The game will be close in the 1st half as both teams cautiously feel each other out.....within 6 pts of each other....then we should open up a permanent lead in the 2nd half.

We will have to play better than we did against K Wes to win....This game is not FGCU's to win ....it is ours to lose ...Make some buckets and we win

Go Bills

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-it's sad that I would take the 65 on your slash line and think it is good or even great for us

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FGCU lost 2/3 of their made 3 point shots last season through graduation and transfers.  

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True but we are probably going to turn someone into a superstar with a career game shooting against us..... 

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Our shooting woes from three further amplify the successes other teams have from three.  Was it two years ago when we lost to Detroity Mercy and Western Michigan at home and we all wondered how come they got three point shooters and we didin't?  I think our situation just amplifies that type of retribution in a more intense way.  I will bew curious to see if th eextended three point lien affects other teams any as we open the season. 

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I've got the Billikens to win by over 6, what are the oods and who do I send my bet into?

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2 hours ago, brianstl said:

FGCU lost 2/3 of their made 3 point shots last season through graduation and transfers.  

FGCU brought in a 6'4 juco guard that made 93 three pointers last year at a 39% clip. Looks like they have a more experienced version of Jimerson.

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Glad to read this thread today.  For some reason, I always associate the first game(s) with easy Ws.  Seems like we are going to have all we can handle.  

So looking forward to it!

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Anyone know if the pre-game happy hour is happening this year again?  I assume so since I haven't heard otherwise; but wanted to be sure.  

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50 minutes ago, philliken said:

Anyone know if the pre-game happy hour is happening this year again?  I assume so since I haven't heard otherwise; but wanted to be sure.  

They had it going for the exh. game. Pony cups for $2.75 each. Ends 30 min prior to tip.

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What they have prepared for this game appears to be bobble-heads. These supposedly will be distributed to the  first 4000 people going into the Chaifetz. I do not expect to get any but I will be there.

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For tonight's  game this is the Teamrankings Vegas inspired expected scores: FGCU: 62.2, SLU: 71.2. As per team rankings SLU  is expected to win tonight by 9 pts, 4 star confidence in this estimate.

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20 minutes ago, Old guy said:

For tonight's  game this is the Teamrankings Vegas inspired expected scores: FGCU: 62.2, SLU: 71.2. As per team rankings SLU  is expected to win tonight by 9 pts, 4 star confidence in this estimate.

Good stuff, where did you find that? I always like seeing how various computer projections play out.

Thanks for the heads up on the bobbleheads, I hope to get one.

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whens the banner ceremony? I believe I just read "prior", but not sure if that means 630, on 1 minute before tip-off

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1 hour ago, TheChosenOne said:

Good stuff, where did you find that? I always like seeing how various computer projections play out.

Thanks for the heads up on the bobbleheads, I hope to get one.

Go to Teamrankings.com, press on NCAAB. They have us ranked as 169. Go there and select SLU, the first game listed in the  list of games is FGCU, click on the date and it will give you all kinds of data, most of which is only available to paid subscribers (not me), just before the statistics for both teams you get an entry (usually  not available to non paid subscribers until the day of the game) with the expected scores for both teams for the games, based upon Vegas betting. This gives you the expected spread.

I like teamrankings, they have a lot of free stuff to look at and see how they change as the season progresses.

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1 hour ago, wgstl said:

whens the banner ceremony? I believe I just read "prior", but not sure if that means 630, on 1 minute before tip-off

In the intros 

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-scores and odds has us -9 with 133.5, for reference there are a lot of games tonight and there are 7 with a lower o/u than our game

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On 11/4/2019 at 12:09 AM, The Wiz said:

So what do we have here?  Well , one thing we don't have is numbers. .  This is strictly a predictive model forecast as opposed to one based on real data.  In addition,  FGCU mirrors us in that they have a bunch of new players coming in (5)...So they have some of the same issues we do ....melding a team together , creating chemistry, trying to figure out who to play etc.  But this is where the comparison ends. They are not us.  Think of them as Ky Wesleyan only better.. Like the game against KW , we are more talented , more athletic, and have more depth.  They,  like K Wes,  are shooters ( 3 pt shooters) who don't play much defense.  We should easily out rebound them, though we won't get 50 again.  Also like KW, if we bother them they will turn the ball over...probably in the 16-20 range.

So we got this right?...Hmmm,  not so fast...Remember , FGCU is K Wes style...but they are not K Wes ....they are better.

Bottom line....This is not an  easy game to forecast  from a spread point of view ....with so many new  players  on both teams.  However, from a win/ loss angle it is easier... we should win....provided we play a decent game...which is not  a given at this point.  A decent slash would be 48/ 33/ 65....we need to dominate in rebounds and TOs...The game will be close in the 1st half as both teams cautiously feel each other out.....within 6 pts of each other....then we should open up a permanent lead in the 2nd half.

We will have to play better than we did against K Wes to win....This game is not FGCU's to win ....it is ours to lose ...Make some buckets and we win

Go Bills

A great game...not only from a numbers point of view but a lot of great plays.  The Bills stepped up their game since  the KW win.

Let's review what happened starting with the first bold print listed above.....They (FGCU) are better than KW ...on the surface it looks like only 7 pts better (beat KW by 29...beat FGCU by 22) but that is only part of the story.  We played much better this game yet won by less...because FGCU played better than KW...yet we almost beat them by as much.  Also we could have run the score up much more on KW.....FGCU has 3 pt shooters...Yes they do  (44%).....not a surprise  but the surprise was we almost matched them at 41% (1 less made shot)...they don't play much D ...true.....We should easily out rebound them though we won't get 50 again....yes and yes...(41-27)....Turnovers for FGCU 16-20...yes  again...actual was 18...btw we had only 9 TOs a great number for any game but especially good for a 1st game with a lot of new people.

2nd bold print....Not an easy game to pick the point spread but an easy one to pick the winner...yes and yes.

3rd bold print....Predicted slash....48/33/65....actual 48/41/56...fortunately our 3pt shooting made up for our poor FT shooting. We were missing 2pts from FTs but gained 6 pts on 3s....we picked up about 18pts on the TO differential. It is just 1 game but if we can keep the TO differential high  (tonight was 9)  that will bode well for us in future games.

4th bold print...Make some buckets and win....yes and yes.

Good start to the season.

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