wgstl Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 On 11/3/2019 at 1:40 AM, The Wiz said: As for The Bills....my forecast is 18-12 ( excl non Div 1)... 18-12 breaks down to 7-5 OOC and 11-7 in conf....Conf finish 5th to 7th...This is the most likely. Im assuming the 5th loss is with BC? I must be missing something about this BC team, they were 14-17, granted acc play, and lost 2 of their top 3 scorers. The starting 5 in production looks like Popovic at 14 ppg Thornton 9 ppg Hamilton at 5 ppg Mitchell at 5 ppg Jay Heath 3 star frosh Kenpom has them at 119, so sounds like it would be a quality road win, but I think its a very winnable game. Also, with the team they have currently, they are quite a bit worst at 3 than us. projected starters averaged 24% last year from 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clock_Tower Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 2 hours ago, 3star_recruit said: So why does it make sense to compare this year's exhibition game to regular season games from last year? We didn't press for 40 minutes in those games either. FYI: We shot the ball 62 times last year against UMSL in our 2nd exhibition game as well in a much closer game. More information is always better than less information. Therefore if this helps you and makes a difference, then great. Otherwise, my entire point is to contrast the number of shots taken last year (when we did not press for 40 minutes) compared to this year (where we apparently will be pressing for 40 minutes per game). Even if we compare to last year’s 2 preseason games as you suggest, we still shot the ball 5 more times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 4, 2019 Author Share Posted November 4, 2019 28 minutes ago, wgstl said: Im assuming the 5th loss is with BC? I must be missing something about this BC team, they were 14-17, granted acc play, and lost 2 of their top 3 scorers. The starting 5 in production looks like Popovic at 14 ppg Thornton 9 ppg Hamilton at 5 ppg Mitchell at 5 ppg Jay Heath 3 star frosh Kenpom has them at 119, so sounds like it would be a quality road win, but I think its a very winnable game. Also, with the team they have currently, they are quite a bit worst at 3 than us. projected starters averaged 24% last year from 3. You are correct ...Boston Coll is one of the Bills losses. Some of the losses ( and wins) I have are "swing" games....games that could go either way because they are too close to call or close enough that the data changes by the time we play them. Unfortunately , this is not a "swing" game. BC is a good team....I have them as a B (vs The Bills at B-) At this point playing a B team on the road may be too much to overcome. They are the 7th D1 team we will play . At that time I will have about 75% of the data I need (to be "more accurate" ).....so things can change for both teams in the next few weeks. If we were to play BC today , I would have BC by 7pts. I am more optimistic than KenPom on BC at this point. If I were using KP's data I think I would have it as a closer game...maybe BC by 2 and it would be a "swing" game. BC is the step child of the ACC. In a conference that has 4 top 10 teams....it is tough to win. They will probably finish 14th in the ACC. Imagine finishing 2nd to last in conference with a grade of B. In the A-10, BC would finish around 3rd place with a chance for an NIT bid. Bottom line ....BC is a good team and a victory over them on the road would be a quality win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 1 hour ago, billiken_roy said: from what i have heard, hargrove has not played well in practice. one thing i give ford lots of kudos for is his insistence everyone is all out and has a grasp of the team play. i dont know know what aspect of hargrove is lacking but considering his highlight potential, he must be f'ing something up to not be playing. Been decades but one of the biggest reasons we now see how rough some great incoming freshman really are is allowing them to play varsity first season. Hope not playing much first season doesn't sour him or any freshman on the program. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 2 hours ago, 3star_recruit said: Hargrove is doing the best he can. Playing for 3 coaches in 3 years at East St. Louis doesn't exactly provide a sophisticated understanding of team basketball. i agree completely. i saw hargrove a lot in high school. and you are correct with your above statement. being the most gifted athete on the team every year he played varsity didnt help in his personal need to learn to play basketball the right way coupled with the new coach each year who likely had bigger problems to address than the good kid with the fantastic athleticism. then add they played in likely the best large school conference in the state and still had more talent than any school in the conference except two time state champ Belleville west wouldnt induce one to work on the finer points as well. just bad and unfortunate hand. that all said, it is reputed hargrove was one of the smartest kids in his high school, therefore i believe he will pick it up and become the impact player we all were expecting. he is only a freshman and has the time and stage to learn and do it. billikenbill and Zink like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Personally, I think Hargrove is both very smart and very gifted. He knows he is not doing well enough, as of now, to play. I am positive he will do whatever he can to remedy this situation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Do we just assume all freshman are good enough to play right away? It almost sounds like between S2, other dismissals, and higher recruits, we just assume all frosh can play right away. Billiken Rich likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adman Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 On 11/3/2019 at 8:49 AM, Old guy said: Wiz, nice analysis which makes perfect sense from a strictly Bayesian point of view. However we have a massive question mark for our team this year because only 3 members of the team are real veterans from last season. Two others (Hankton and Jacobs) played next to very little last year and have to be considered as freshmen +. The rest are unknown factors. So far I see only one player that I would consider to be destined for build up and development with only occasional play this season, this is Diarra. The rest are unknowns, some with great promise by the way. I do not imagine this is a situation where the cocoon will burst open and a full fledged butterfly will take off. We are not going to come into a position of strength from the first game we play, which most certainly does not mean we cannot win games. Nope full maturity of the team requires, as you know, some time before things gel in the way Ford desires to have. This will most likely make the non conference games a bit dicey. We will see what the future brings our way, of course, but I want to come on record stating that Team Blue may, in my opinion, end this year beyond the preliminary expectations, at an A level. I think this will be a great and exiting season for us Bills fans. Go Bills! Old guy, love your optimism. I think it'll be a really long shot to finish at an A level, but hope I'm wrong. I agree we have many players that are unknown factors. But I do have one question. What makes you think Diarra is the singular player destined for build up and development? You think he has greater promise than Yuri, Jimerson, Bell, Hargrove, Jacobs, Hankton, et al? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 15 minutes ago, Adman said: Old guy, love your optimism. I think it'll be a really long shot to finish at an A level, but hope I'm wrong. I agree we have many players that are unknown factors. But I do have one question. What makes you think Diarra is the singular player destined for build up and development? You think he has greater promise than Yuri, Jimerson, Bell, Hargrove, Jacobs, Hankton, et al? I think Old Guy means that he thinks Diarra is the only (long-term) project and the rest should be able to contribute some time this season. Adman likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adman Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, Quality Is Job 1 said: I think Old Guy means that he thinks Diarra is the only (long-term) project and the rest should be able to contribute some time this season. Good thought... Before my post, I had considered that, too. But his last sentence, "The rest are unknowns, some with great promise by the way." got me wondering about the meaning. We'll see when Old Guy responds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 I agree with Quality is Job 1. From my point of view just about everyone in the team will be able to contribute during the season in one way or the other, perhaps they will not play long minutes but will be able to contribute. The only exception as I see it is Diarra. I think he is a long term project. Now, keep this in mind, I think that if the need arises Diarra may see some play here and there as well. Other players with great potential that have to get things together (hopefully soon) are, in my opinion, Hargrove and Weaver. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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