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The Wiz

The Wiz's Preseason Forecast 2019-2020

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Wiz, nice analysis which makes perfect sense from a strictly Bayesian point of view. However we have a massive question mark for our team this year because only 3 members of the team are real veterans from last season. Two others (Hankton and Jacobs) played next to very little last year and have to be considered as freshmen +. The rest are unknown factors. So far I see only one player that I would consider to be destined for build up and development with only occasional play this season, this is Diarra. The rest are unknowns, some with great promise by the way.

I do not imagine this is a situation where the cocoon will burst open and a full fledged butterfly will take off. We are not going to come into a position of strength from the first game we play, which most certainly does not mean we cannot win games. Nope full maturity of the team requires, as you know, some time before things gel in the way Ford desires to have. This will most likely make the non conference games a bit dicey. We will see what the future brings our way, of course, but I want to come on record stating that Team Blue may, in my opinion, end this year beyond the preliminary expectations, at an A level.

I think this will be a great and exiting season for us Bills fans. Go Bills!

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9 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Here is how the season looks to play out....A good start  leads to some early kool aid drinking and NCAA talk....then reality hits when we play Seton Hall....this leads to a downturn as play turns mixed going forward... at this point the  board declares the season is over.  Optimism rears its head again as conf play begins ...a weak Jan and the talk shifts to 20-21....but then we gel and have a good Feb which leads to sugar plum fairies and A-10 tourney championship  talk...the board dreams of a a miracle repeat

 

This is 100% how the season is going to happen 

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3 things I believe will shape this season

1) We will have to at some point be as solid on D as we were last year. This will keep us in games.

2) Our outside shooting has be a weapon, elsewise Fremch and Goodwin will struggle to get points.

3) Team FT% has to get close to 70%. 

This is why they call me Capt Obvious. 

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8 minutes ago, slu72 said:

3 things I believe will shape this season

1) We will have to at some point be as solid on D as we were last year. This will keep us in games.

2) Our outside shooting has be a weapon, elsewise Fremch and Goodwin will struggle to get points.

3) Team FT% has to get close to 70%. 

This is why they call me Capt Obvious. 

I think one think this team will always be able to lean on is defense.  Even more so this year, since we will have the ability to run more bodies out there to keep the intensity up.

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21 minutes ago, slu72 said:

3 things I believe will shape this season

1) We will have to at some point be as solid on D as we were last year. This will keep us in games.

2) Our outside shooting has be a weapon, elsewise Fremch and Goodwin will struggle to get points.

3) Team FT% has to get close to 70%. 

This is why they call me Capt Obvious. 

Hoping rebounding will continue to be a strength as well. If FG percentage improves, the raw numbers may be lower but keeping the percentage of offensive boards to missed shots high goes a long way. I've watched video of the second half of St. Bonnie game in the A-10 final a few times and we couldn't score out of our halfcourt offense. Most of our points were on stickbacks, or scramble situations. The announcers commented on that more than once. I'm thinking French will be even stronger on the boards with the reported increase in his vertical, Bell ought to root out at least a few, JG is a force on the offensive glass, and KC battled well on the glass in his limited minutes with his small frame. With his added strength he ought to help as well.

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From the video highlights of the KW exhibition, French looked more fluid, savvy,  and athletic than ever. I know the competition wasn't much to write home about but he looked dominant and confident. 

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Statistics can be quite misleading based upon only one game. Nonetheless, I did a little math after looking at the preseason box score compared to last year‘s totals and found something interesting.

Over 36 games, we shot 2052 FG attempts or 57 per game and we also shot 675 3 pointers for the year or 19 per game.   The other night, we launched  67 FG attempts and 21 3 pointers or 12 more shots (17% more) than last year’s average. 

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5 minutes ago, Clock_Tower said:

Statistics can be quite misleading based upon only one game. Nonetheless, I did a little math after looking at the preseason box score compared to last year‘s totals and found something interesting.

Over 36 games, we shot 2052 FG attempts or 57 per game and we also shot 675 3 pointers for the year or 19 per game.   The other night, we launched  67 FG attempts and 21 3 pointers or 12 more shots (17% more) than last year’s average. 

Interesting. Thanks for the research. Makes sense (like you, I'm keeping in mind it's one preseason game) since we're playing at a faster tempo AND we have at least a couple of what we hope are legit 3 point shooters.

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34 minutes ago, Clock_Tower said:

Statistics can be quite misleading based upon only one game. Nonetheless, I did a little math after looking at the preseason box score compared to last year‘s totals and found something interesting.

Over 36 games, we shot 2052 FG attempts or 57 per game and we also shot 675 3 pointers for the year or 19 per game.   The other night, we launched  67 FG attempts and 21 3 pointers or 12 more shots (17% more) than last year’s average. 

Nice post.  However, it's 10 more shots (not 12): 67-57.  The 3-point field goals are a subset of field goals.

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8 minutes ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

Nice post.  However, it's 10 more shots (not 12): 67-57.  The 3-point field goals are a subset of field goals.

whoops  you’re right 

Here’s the box score BTW 

https://kwcpanthers.com/sports/mens-basketball/stats/2019-20/saint-louis/boxscore/8645

And despite the up tempo and our 67 shots, we held them to only 48 shots (last year’s average was 54 based upon 1948 over 36 games).  Also, even though our 3 pointers were certainly not dropping (we made only 3), we still attempted 21 as compared to last year’s average of 18.75 per game  

 

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-if we are shooting 21 three's per game and making 3 we are in deep, deep trouble but I don't think that will be the case (and I really hope this isn't blind eye optimism)

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The Bills range starting at B- is from B+ to  C .   B+  is a best case scenario.... we gel quickly and everything falls into place....minimal injuries...our new  players develop quickly...we start making shots  etc....a  B- is a worst casescenario....opposite of above...players don't develop, we lose players to injuries or otherwise,  we shoot like last year   etc “

I'm confused by this statement .. wouldn’t C be the worst?

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20 minutes ago, Dr. Holly Hills said:

The Bills range starting at B- is from B+ to  C .   B+  is a best case scenario.... we gel quickly and everything falls into place....minimal injuries...our new  players develop quickly...we start making shots  etc....a  B- is a worst casescenario....opposite of above...players don't develop, we lose players to injuries or otherwise,  we shoot like last year   etc “

I'm confused by this statement .. wouldn’t C be the worst?

You are correct....Fixed it to read C is worst case.....Typos are one of the hazards of posting at 130 AM

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1 hour ago, Clock_Tower said:

whoops  you’re right 

Here’s the box score BTW 

https://kwcpanthers.com/sports/mens-basketball/stats/2019-20/saint-louis/boxscore/8645

And despite the up tempo and our 67 shots, we held them to only 48 shots (last year’s average was 54 based upon 1948 over 36 games).  Also, even though our 3 pointers were certainly not dropping (we made only 3), we still attempted 21 as compared to last year’s average of 18.75 per game  

 

And the increase in the number of shots taken by the Bills, correspond to the faster tempo, the full court pressing and the total dominance in rebounds. KW could not do much against the Bills, period. I hope this becomes the pattern once the season starts.

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4 hours ago, Clock_Tower said:

Statistics can be quite misleading based upon only one game. Nonetheless, I did a little math after looking at the preseason box score compared to last year‘s totals and found something interesting.

Over 36 games, we shot 2052 FG attempts or 57 per game and we also shot 675 3 pointers for the year or 19 per game.   The other night, we launched  67 FG attempts and 21 3 pointers or 12 more shots (17% more) than last year’s average. 

Wouldn't it make more sense to compare this year's  first exhibition game to last year's first exhibition game?  We always take a lot of shots in preseason games because the competition is inferior.  Last year we took 62 shots against Quincy, including 25 three-pointers.

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6 hours ago, 3star_recruit said:

Wouldn't it make more sense to compare this year's  first exhibition game to last year's first exhibition game?  We always take a lot of shots in preseason games because the competition is inferior.  Last year we took 62 shots against Quincy, including 25 three-pointers.

No. Because we did not press for 40 minutes against Quincy last year. 
Also, unlike this year, the game vs Quincy was not even close.  44 to 14 halftime lead before final score of 85-42  

https://quhawks.com/news/2018/10/27/mens-basketball-opens-season-in-exhibition-against-slu.aspx

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10 minutes ago, Clock_Tower said:

No. Because we did not press for 40 minutes against Quincy last year. 
Also, unlike this year, the game vs Quincy was not even close.  44 to 14 halftime lead before final score of 85-42  

https://quhawks.com/news/2018/10/27/mens-basketball-opens-season-in-exhibition-against-slu.aspx

So why does it make sense to compare this year's exhibition game to regular season games from last year? We didn't press for 40 minutes in those games either.

FYI: We shot the ball 62 times last year against UMSL in our 2nd exhibition game as well in a much closer game.

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if we press full court the whole game we will get some easy turnover baskets.   (both thatch and goodwin got 2-3 each last game off of steals and i am sure we had quick scores on other turnovers as well).   this will lead to what seems like free points and lessen the impact of 3-21 three point shooting nights (which hopefully we wont see again) and missed free throws.  

a lot of good will come from playing havoc imo with the roster we have.   and the better news long term, is if havoc is successful at slu, it will aid recruiting.   today's players love to run.  

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5 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

if we press full court the whole game we will get some easy turnover baskets.   (both thatch and goodwin got 2-3 each last game off of steals and i am sure we had quick scores on other turnovers as well).   this will lead to what seems like free points and lessen the impact of 3-21 three point shooting nights (which hopefully we wont see again) and missed free throws.  

a lot of good will come from playing havoc imo with the roster we have.   and the better news long term, is if havoc is successful at slu, it will aid recruiting.   today's players love to run.  

Not only the above but this suits Hargrove's game to a T. I feel he's the forgotten new comer. 

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27 minutes ago, slu72 said:

Not only the above but this suits Hargrove's game to a T. I feel he's the forgotten new comer. 

from what i have heard, hargrove has not played well in practice.  one thing i give ford lots of kudos for is his insistence everyone is all out and has a grasp of the team play.   i dont know know what aspect of hargrove is lacking but considering his highlight potential, he must be f'ing something up to not be playing.   

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