Popular Post The Wiz Posted November 3, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted November 3, 2019 Hi all....This is the official start of my basketball season. For those that are new , this is the first of 3 forecasts....the preseason...and after the 8th game and after OOC.. This preseason prediction is based on a Bayesian model....the next 2 on real data. I use a letter grade system which groups similar teams together. As the season starts to unfold I use the first 8 games to meld the Bayesian model with the real data model gradually integrating the real data with the forecasting tool and drop the Bayesian after the first 8 games (after the SIU game on Dec 1)....btw that is 8 real games....so no Ky Wes or Maryville.. As the season goes on and I have more data , I become more accurate ( at least that is the way it is suppose to work). Here is what the A-10 looks like....... A-10 Dav........................B+......... NCAA 35% or NIT 80% VCU.......................B+.......... NCAA 35% or NIT 80% Day..........................B............NIT 50% RI.............................B............NIT...50% St. B.........................B............NIT...50% Rich.........................B- SLU..........................B- Duq.........................C+ GM..........................C+ LaS.........................C UMass....................C GW...........................C- St. J..........................C- Ford...........................D Variance from this model to the end of the season is 2 notches.....For example....The Bills range starting at B- is from B+ to C . B+ is a best case scenario.... we gel quickly and everything falls into place....minimal injuries...our new players develop quickly...we start making shots etc....a C is a worst case scenario....opposite of above...players don't develop, we lose players to injuries or otherwise, we shoot like last year etc Speaking of last year ....My beginning forecast for last year's Bills team was B+....we finished at B.....nearly 60 % of last year's preseason A-10 picks finished on the money or 1 notch away. All 14 teams finished within 2 notches. As for The Bills....my forecast is 18-12 ( excl non Div 1)... 18-12 breaks down to 7-5 OOC and 11-7 in conf....Conf finish 5th to 7th...This is the most likely. Best case scenario (everything goes right....Players develop. team gels early, the press works , we hit shots including foul shots and the board gets together for a blue kool-aid party..........we finish 22-8 and 14-4 in conf for a 2nd place finish...possible NCAA bid Worst case scenario...We don't gel, press doesn't work, we lose some players , we shoot like last year...board melts down (again).... we finish 16-14 and 9-9 in conference for an 8th or 9th place finish....look for a bid in 20-21 Here is how the season looks to play out....A good start leads to some early kool aid drinking and NCAA talk....then reality hits when we play Seton Hall....this leads to a downturn as play turns mixed going forward... at this point the board declares the season is over. Optimism rears its head again as conf play begins ...a weak Jan and the talk shifts to 20-21....but then we gel and have a good Feb which leads to sugar plum fairies and A-10 tourney championship talk...the board dreams of a a miracle repeat. Bottomline....All of the above scenarios are based on how the computer sees the game patterns playing out. Prepare for a roller coaster ride ...complete with some vicious blowouts with the Bills on both ends of those blowouts. Also some very close games....hair pulling games...games that will end in overtime...We win some of these games because of our superior depth and lose some because we can't buy a foul shot. This season will not be for the faint of heart. The pattern has been that no matter what we have in players and talent , Ford maximizes it by Feb. This year should be no different Enjoy the ride....Go Bills CBFan, TheChosenOne, NYBilliken and 13 others like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 It really is November! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 The Wiz rocks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnbj14 Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Wiz, love your breakdowns. Always an indicator that basketball season is truly here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Wiz, nice analysis which makes perfect sense from a strictly Bayesian point of view. However we have a massive question mark for our team this year because only 3 members of the team are real veterans from last season. Two others (Hankton and Jacobs) played next to very little last year and have to be considered as freshmen +. The rest are unknown factors. So far I see only one player that I would consider to be destined for build up and development with only occasional play this season, this is Diarra. The rest are unknowns, some with great promise by the way. I do not imagine this is a situation where the cocoon will burst open and a full fledged butterfly will take off. We are not going to come into a position of strength from the first game we play, which most certainly does not mean we cannot win games. Nope full maturity of the team requires, as you know, some time before things gel in the way Ford desires to have. This will most likely make the non conference games a bit dicey. We will see what the future brings our way, of course, but I want to come on record stating that Team Blue may, in my opinion, end this year beyond the preliminary expectations, at an A level. I think this will be a great and exiting season for us Bills fans. Go Bills! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBL_Bills Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 9 hours ago, The Wiz said: Here is how the season looks to play out....A good start leads to some early kool aid drinking and NCAA talk....then reality hits when we play Seton Hall....this leads to a downturn as play turns mixed going forward... at this point the board declares the season is over. Optimism rears its head again as conf play begins ...a weak Jan and the talk shifts to 20-21....but then we gel and have a good Feb which leads to sugar plum fairies and A-10 tourney championship talk...the board dreams of a a miracle repeat This is 100% how the season is going to happen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 3 things I believe will shape this season 1) We will have to at some point be as solid on D as we were last year. This will keep us in games. 2) Our outside shooting has be a weapon, elsewise Fremch and Goodwin will struggle to get points. 3) Team FT% has to get close to 70%. This is why they call me Capt Obvious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billikens4life Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, slu72 said: 3 things I believe will shape this season 1) We will have to at some point be as solid on D as we were last year. This will keep us in games. 2) Our outside shooting has be a weapon, elsewise Fremch and Goodwin will struggle to get points. 3) Team FT% has to get close to 70%. This is why they call me Capt Obvious. I think one think this team will always be able to lean on is defense. Even more so this year, since we will have the ability to run more bodies out there to keep the intensity up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenbill Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 21 minutes ago, slu72 said: 3 things I believe will shape this season 1) We will have to at some point be as solid on D as we were last year. This will keep us in games. 2) Our outside shooting has be a weapon, elsewise Fremch and Goodwin will struggle to get points. 3) Team FT% has to get close to 70%. This is why they call me Capt Obvious. Hoping rebounding will continue to be a strength as well. If FG percentage improves, the raw numbers may be lower but keeping the percentage of offensive boards to missed shots high goes a long way. I've watched video of the second half of St. Bonnie game in the A-10 final a few times and we couldn't score out of our halfcourt offense. Most of our points were on stickbacks, or scramble situations. The announcers commented on that more than once. I'm thinking French will be even stronger on the boards with the reported increase in his vertical, Bell ought to root out at least a few, JG is a force on the offensive glass, and KC battled well on the glass in his limited minutes with his small frame. With his added strength he ought to help as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 From the video highlights of the KW exhibition, French looked more fluid, savvy, and athletic than ever. I know the competition wasn't much to write home about but he looked dominant and confident. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clock_Tower Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Statistics can be quite misleading based upon only one game. Nonetheless, I did a little math after looking at the preseason box score compared to last year‘s totals and found something interesting. Over 36 games, we shot 2052 FG attempts or 57 per game and we also shot 675 3 pointers for the year or 19 per game. The other night, we launched 67 FG attempts and 21 3 pointers or 12 more shots (17% more) than last year’s average. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Pelican Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, Clock_Tower said: Statistics can be quite misleading based upon only one game. Nonetheless, I did a little math after looking at the preseason box score compared to last year‘s totals and found something interesting. Over 36 games, we shot 2052 FG attempts or 57 per game and we also shot 675 3 pointers for the year or 19 per game. The other night, we launched 67 FG attempts and 21 3 pointers or 12 more shots (17% more) than last year’s average. Interesting. Thanks for the research. Makes sense (like you, I'm keeping in mind it's one preseason game) since we're playing at a faster tempo AND we have at least a couple of what we hope are legit 3 point shooters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 34 minutes ago, Clock_Tower said: Statistics can be quite misleading based upon only one game. Nonetheless, I did a little math after looking at the preseason box score compared to last year‘s totals and found something interesting. Over 36 games, we shot 2052 FG attempts or 57 per game and we also shot 675 3 pointers for the year or 19 per game. The other night, we launched 67 FG attempts and 21 3 pointers or 12 more shots (17% more) than last year’s average. Nice post. However, it's 10 more shots (not 12): 67-57. The 3-point field goals are a subset of field goals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clock_Tower Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 8 minutes ago, Quality Is Job 1 said: Nice post. However, it's 10 more shots (not 12): 67-57. The 3-point field goals are a subset of field goals. whoops you’re right Here’s the box score BTW https://kwcpanthers.com/sports/mens-basketball/stats/2019-20/saint-louis/boxscore/8645 And despite the up tempo and our 67 shots, we held them to only 48 shots (last year’s average was 54 based upon 1948 over 36 games). Also, even though our 3 pointers were certainly not dropping (we made only 3), we still attempted 21 as compared to last year’s average of 18.75 per game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 -if we are shooting 21 three's per game and making 3 we are in deep, deep trouble but I don't think that will be the case (and I really hope this isn't blind eye optimism) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Holly Hills Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 “The Bills range starting at B- is from B+ to C . B+ is a best case scenario.... we gel quickly and everything falls into place....minimal injuries...our new players develop quickly...we start making shots etc....a B- is a worst casescenario....opposite of above...players don't develop, we lose players to injuries or otherwise, we shoot like last year etc “ I'm confused by this statement .. wouldn’t C be the worst? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 4, 2019 Author Share Posted November 4, 2019 20 minutes ago, Dr. Holly Hills said: “The Bills range starting at B- is from B+ to C . B+ is a best case scenario.... we gel quickly and everything falls into place....minimal injuries...our new players develop quickly...we start making shots etc....a B- is a worst casescenario....opposite of above...players don't develop, we lose players to injuries or otherwise, we shoot like last year etc “ I'm confused by this statement .. wouldn’t C be the worst? You are correct....Fixed it to read C is worst case.....Typos are one of the hazards of posting at 130 AM Dr. Holly Hills likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 1 hour ago, Clock_Tower said: whoops you’re right Here’s the box score BTW https://kwcpanthers.com/sports/mens-basketball/stats/2019-20/saint-louis/boxscore/8645 And despite the up tempo and our 67 shots, we held them to only 48 shots (last year’s average was 54 based upon 1948 over 36 games). Also, even though our 3 pointers were certainly not dropping (we made only 3), we still attempted 21 as compared to last year’s average of 18.75 per game And the increase in the number of shots taken by the Bills, correspond to the faster tempo, the full court pressing and the total dominance in rebounds. KW could not do much against the Bills, period. I hope this becomes the pattern once the season starts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3star_recruit Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 4 hours ago, Clock_Tower said: Statistics can be quite misleading based upon only one game. Nonetheless, I did a little math after looking at the preseason box score compared to last year‘s totals and found something interesting. Over 36 games, we shot 2052 FG attempts or 57 per game and we also shot 675 3 pointers for the year or 19 per game. The other night, we launched 67 FG attempts and 21 3 pointers or 12 more shots (17% more) than last year’s average. Wouldn't it make more sense to compare this year's first exhibition game to last year's first exhibition game? We always take a lot of shots in preseason games because the competition is inferior. Last year we took 62 shots against Quincy, including 25 three-pointers. Cincybill likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clock_Tower Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 6 hours ago, 3star_recruit said: Wouldn't it make more sense to compare this year's first exhibition game to last year's first exhibition game? We always take a lot of shots in preseason games because the competition is inferior. Last year we took 62 shots against Quincy, including 25 three-pointers. No. Because we did not press for 40 minutes against Quincy last year. Also, unlike this year, the game vs Quincy was not even close. 44 to 14 halftime lead before final score of 85-42 https://quhawks.com/news/2018/10/27/mens-basketball-opens-season-in-exhibition-against-slu.aspx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3star_recruit Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 10 minutes ago, Clock_Tower said: No. Because we did not press for 40 minutes against Quincy last year. Also, unlike this year, the game vs Quincy was not even close. 44 to 14 halftime lead before final score of 85-42 https://quhawks.com/news/2018/10/27/mens-basketball-opens-season-in-exhibition-against-slu.aspx So why does it make sense to compare this year's exhibition game to regular season games from last year? We didn't press for 40 minutes in those games either. FYI: We shot the ball 62 times last year against UMSL in our 2nd exhibition game as well in a much closer game. Cincybill likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 if we press full court the whole game we will get some easy turnover baskets. (both thatch and goodwin got 2-3 each last game off of steals and i am sure we had quick scores on other turnovers as well). this will lead to what seems like free points and lessen the impact of 3-21 three point shooting nights (which hopefully we wont see again) and missed free throws. a lot of good will come from playing havoc imo with the roster we have. and the better news long term, is if havoc is successful at slu, it will aid recruiting. today's players love to run. RiseOfTheBillikens, Old guy, Zink and 1 other like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, billiken_roy said: if we press full court the whole game we will get some easy turnover baskets. (both thatch and goodwin got 2-3 each last game off of steals and i am sure we had quick scores on other turnovers as well). this will lead to what seems like free points and lessen the impact of 3-21 three point shooting nights (which hopefully we wont see again) and missed free throws. a lot of good will come from playing havoc imo with the roster we have. and the better news long term, is if havoc is successful at slu, it will aid recruiting. today's players love to run. Not only the above but this suits Hargrove's game to a T. I feel he's the forgotten new comer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 27 minutes ago, slu72 said: Not only the above but this suits Hargrove's game to a T. I feel he's the forgotten new comer. from what i have heard, hargrove has not played well in practice. one thing i give ford lots of kudos for is his insistence everyone is all out and has a grasp of the team play. i dont know know what aspect of hargrove is lacking but considering his highlight potential, he must be f'ing something up to not be playing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3star_recruit Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Hargrove is doing the best he can. Playing for 3 coaches in 3 years at East St. Louis doesn't exactly provide a sophisticated understanding of team basketball. billiken_roy, Billiken Rich and Zink like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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