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drkelsey55

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37 minutes ago, wgstl said:

im concerned about or FG shooting, I think we improve on 3pt%.  Other than French and jgood Im not confident on anyone who can score down low. 

If we need to get a bucket, there isn't anyone that we can throw the ball to with confidence to get us one. French you can just foul. Goodwin has a tough time scoring on anything that's not an offensive rebound. 

Even Mike Lewis was a bit of a one trick pony.  At Duquesne he feasted on bad basketball teams and wilted against decent to good teams. And he gave up as many points as he scored.  That combination of factors is why I didn't consider him a lock to start.  

Our best bet, IMO, is for Perkins to grow into the role.  Being a finesse guy, he can't physically impose his will on day one. I think he will need several months to figure it out.

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3 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

If we need to get a bucket, there isn't anyone that we can throw the ball to with confidence to get us one. French you can just foul. Goodwin has a tough time scoring on anything that's not an offensive rebound. 

Even Mike Lewis was a bit of a one trick pony.  At Duquesne he feasted on bad basketball teams and wilted against decent to good teams. And he gave up as many points as he scored.  That combination of factors is why I didn't consider him a lock to start.  

Our best bet, IMO, is for Perkins to grow into the role.  Being a finesse guy, he can't physically impose his will on day one. I think he will need several months to figure it out.

So you are calling the Billikens a bad basketball team? 

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36 minutes ago, wgstl said:

I mean, im sure stats back up that 5 stars average more than 4 stars who average more than 3 stars.  I understand the star ranking, but don't think its everything. I just hate the "who cares if he is a 3 star of 5 star", thats a pretty big deal. 

I actually looked this up one time and posted about it here:

Basically, ON AVERAGE, star ratings are not meaningless. The average 5-star is better than the average 3-star. This says nothing of individuals; there are tons of examples of recruits who weren't ranked highly coming out of HS who ended up doing great in college and, conversely, highly-ranked recruits who ended up being busts. And in total value to a program, a 3-star who sticks around four years can be a lot better than a 5-star who leaves after a year. Data (posted above) backs this up.

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2 minutes ago, willie said:

So you are calling the Billikens a bad basketball team? 

We were his freshman year when he went off on us. The following year he struggled against us.

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10 minutes ago, rgbilliken said:

I actually looked this up one time and posted about it here:

Basically, ON AVERAGE, star ratings are not meaningless. The average 5-star is better than the average 3-star. This says nothing of individuals; there are tons of examples of recruits who weren't ranked highly coming out of HS who ended up doing great in college and, conversely, highly-ranked recruits who ended up being busts. And in total value to a program, a 3-star who sticks around four years can be a lot better than a 5-star who leaves after a year. Data (posted above) backs this up.

This is the one thing that stood out.  With the amounts of transfers now, this has to be hurting data.  You almost cant count on a player to stay 4 years, you can hope. 

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26 minutes ago, rgbilliken said:

I actually looked this up one time and posted about it here:

Basically, ON AVERAGE, star ratings are not meaningless. The average 5-star is better than the average 3-star. This says nothing of individuals; there are tons of examples of recruits who weren't ranked highly coming out of HS who ended up doing great in college and, conversely, highly-ranked recruits who ended up being busts. And in total value to a program, a 3-star who sticks around four years can be a lot better than a 5-star who leaves after a year. Data (posted above) backs this up.

Good article in today's Wall Street Journal about small school all-stars. Ja Morant likely to be the 2nd pick tonight was a zero star. Damian Lillard was a 2 star. Curry was a 3 star. Klay Thompson was a 4 star. These guys all played at smaller schools. You don't have to go to Duke to make the NBA. 

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While I am hopeful this team will be better than 6th place or so in the A-10, I am not confident that that will happen.

We need just about everything to break right for us to finish above mid-level in the conference.

We need-

        Goodwin to finally be more than a fierce rebounder.  We need him to improve his shooting by quite a bit, including FTs.  How many of us had any real confidence last year when JG put up a shot from the outside?

       French to develop the ability to score from further than 5 ft and greatly improve his FT % to something around 65 %

      Thatch to show some level of offensive consistency.  He had a few really good offensive games last year but just a few

      KCH and DJ to be much greater contributors than they were last year and stay healthy

     The four recruits I consider to be prize recruits ( Hargrove, Jimerson, Perkins and Collins )  to make a difference this year, not just in the future.  Hargrove and Perkins  to not only help with scoring but also with rebounding; Jimerson  to be what we"expect" / "hope for"- a 40-50 % 3PT shooter to open up the inside; and Collins to show he can be a PG this team has needed for quite a few years, and can defend.

     The two bigs to be able to offer, as a pair, up to 10 minutes a game in the 5 position to relieve HF.

 

Is it unreasonable to expect just about all of the above to occur?  I don't think so.  That's why I am at least hopeful of a top 4 finish.

When the preseason writers and league coaches polls come out in Sept/Oct, I expect we will slotted in the 6-8th range. 

 

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2 hours ago, wgstl said:

I mean, im sure stats back up that 5 stars average more than 4 stars who average more than 3 stars.  I understand the star ranking, but don't think its everything. I just hate the "who cares if he is a 3 star of 5 star", thats a pretty big deal. 

And there are McDonald All Americans who wash out at the college level too.  Our three star Thatch certainly out performed our four star Wiley last season.  Examples on both side of this discussion can be easily found.  It is perfectly fine to get excited about stars.  I'm not one who does.  And life goes on.

I am sure Coach Ford checks stars on a recruit before he gets interested in a prospect.  

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43 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

And there are McDonald All Americans who wash out at the college level too.  Our three star Thatch certainly out performed our four star Wiley last season.  Examples on both side of this discussion can be easily found.  It is perfectly fine to get excited about stars.  I'm not one who does.  And life goes on.

I am sure Coach Ford checks stars on a recruit before he gets interested in a prospect.  

The whole star thing is really a shorthand for the level that a player is being recruited at.  Analysts look at the schools that are recruiting a player and then assign stars accordingly.  It's often the schools that are overlooking 2 star and 3 star recruits, not the analysts.  The analysts are just keeping score.

There are multiple reasons for this but they all boil down to one: there are some players that improve significantly in their late teens.  That's why Lok Wur, for example, is getting so much attention after becoming available late.  He was averaging 8 ppg last year against mediocre competition. This year he's a 20 and 10 guy.  And we all know examples of players who grew 3 inches or more going into their senior season.  Gordon Hayward and Steph Curry were already signed to mid-major schools while in the midst of a growth spurt.  Young men physically mature at different rates.

High major schools can afford to focus on the early developers.  Even if a kid is a late bloomer, they can often swoop in late and get that guy if he hasn't committed already.  Mid-majors, on the other hand, need to get lucky with the occasional late bloomer to compete against high major teams.

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I don't think French has it in him to be much of a scorer away from the basket. That said, a playmaker like Yuri could get him the ball so he's not surrounded by two bigs every time he shoots. Jimerson could help him too by being the sniper we all think he is. The more we can  unjam the inside the more French should score. Thatch is the guy I'm looking to to provide more points. 

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49 minutes ago, slu72 said:

I don't think French has it in him to be much of a scorer away from the basket. That said, a playmaker like Yuri could get him the ball so he's not surrounded by two bigs every time he shoots. Jimerson could help him too by being the sniper we all think he is. The more we can  unjam the inside the more French should score. Thatch is the guy I'm looking to to provide more points. 

The best way to improve French's scoring is from the free throw line not farther away from the basket.

If French can shoot over 60 percent from the free throw line he will be a double digit scorer.

If French can shoot 70 percent from the free throw line they will have to defend him and not foul him.

In French, Goodwin and Thatch I trust, these three handle themselves professionally and gives me confidence that they are all 3 working really hard over the offseason to improve their weaknesses in their game.

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1 hour ago, CBFan said:

The best way to improve French's scoring is from the free throw line not farther away from the basket.

If French can shoot over 60 percent from the free throw line he will be a double digit scorer.

If French can shoot 70 percent from the free throw line they will have to defend him and not foul him.

In French, Goodwin and Thatch I trust, these three handle themselves professionally and gives me confidence that they are all 3 working really hard over the offseason to improve their weaknesses in their game.

One alley-oop pass from Yuri a game makes French a double digit scorer.  He's already at 9 ppg.  60% from the line will happen when hell freezes over.

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5 hours ago, bauman said:

While I am hopeful this team will be better than 6th place or so in the A-10, I am not confident that that will happen.

We need just about everything to break right for us to finish above mid-level in the conference.

We need-

        Goodwin to finally be more than a fierce rebounder.  We need him to improve his shooting by quite a bit, including FTs.  How many of us had any real confidence last year when JG put up a shot from the outside?

       French to develop the ability to score from further than 5 ft and greatly improve his FT % to something around 65 %

      Thatch to show some level of offensive consistency.  He had a few really good offensive games last year but just a few

      KCH and DJ to be much greater contributors than they were last year and stay healthy

     The four recruits I consider to be prize recruits ( Hargrove, Jimerson, Perkins and Collins )  to make a difference this year, not just in the future.  Hargrove and Perkins  to not only help with scoring but also with rebounding; Jimerson  to be what we"expect" / "hope for"- a 40-50 % 3PT shooter to open up the inside; and Collins to show he can be a PG this team has needed for quite a few years, and can defend.

     The two bigs to be able to offer, as a pair, up to 10 minutes a game in the 5 position to relieve HF.

 

Is it unreasonable to expect just about all of the above to occur?  I don't think so.  That's why I am at least hopeful of a top 4 finish.

When the preseason writers and league coaches polls come out in Sept/Oct, I expect we will slotted in the 6-8th range. 

 

I agree, none of those things that you mention are unreasonable and Billikens can have a strong season. Adding true point guard, plus two centers to sometimes take the pressure off French, plus several potential scorers, adds up to potential for better offense. With reference to the 144 rating, it's probably better to be underrated - which probably Billikens are - than overrated which we were last year (see Gordon, Carte'are). Plus now there is no need to keep checking the 144 site every week during summer doldrums to see when we would show up.

In general, I am optimistic as there is still good progression from year to year in Ford era. Three years ago, team overachieved on dismal expectations, getting the most from remnants of previous regime plus Jalen J. Two years ago, returned to a winning record with emergence of Team Blue despite (and maybe because of) the disaster of suspensions and expulsions. Last year, found a way back to tournament despite losses of Santos, Gordon and Welmer and sometimes awkward offense. This year, two proven stars are returning and looking to break through to their next level, plus we have three other returnees who can play and excellent group of recruits who look capable of scoring. Being underrated with moderate expectations, it will be great to see how this new roster works out. Also, free throw shooting can only improve.

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I am optimistic about the new season, although I agree there are a lot of unknowns that could go either way.

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4 hours ago, 3star_recruit said:

One alley-oop pass from Yuri a game makes French a double digit scorer.  He's already at 9 ppg.  60% from the line will happen when hell freezes over.

French’s stats prove your point, French’s heart and drive might make hell freeze over.

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1 hour ago, CBFan said:

French’s stats prove your point, French’s heart and drive might make hell freeze over.

I like this post a lot. It shows that there is a dimension to play and to players that cannot be incorporated into the statistical measurements. Ultimately, this non measurable dimension may make the difference in key games. You can call this dimension anything you want, but "heart and drive" serves the purpose quite well. Great post!

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On 6/20/2019 at 10:57 AM, Clocktoweraccords2004 said:

Well the A10 teams with no hype last year ended up doing quite well. We have the pieces, it’s just up to players to step up. Perkins, Thatch, Hargrove and Gibson have potential 

Don't sleep on Yuri! 

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On 6/20/2019 at 9:57 AM, Clocktoweraccords2004 said:

Well the A10 teams with no hype last year ended up doing quite well

I mean, we had a ton of hype.. 

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On 6/20/2019 at 4:52 PM, Old guy said:

I am optimistic about the new season, although I agree there are a lot of unknowns that could go either way.

It’s 50/50.

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2 hours ago, VeniceMenace said:

It’s 50/50.

 

2 hours ago, VeniceMenace said:

It’s 50/50.

At least.

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Updates from this unimportant Top 144 list.  For those who have already forgotten,  SLU came in at #143, 6th in the A10.

Eastern Washington #113 (first in the Big Sky - NCAA Team)

St.Bonnie #101 (fifth in the A10 heading to CBI/CIT)

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Rhody comes in at #79, and per the author, slotted for 4th in the A10 and an NIT bid.  They have a lot coming back, and add a transfer from Georgetown and a JUCO shooter ready to go.  Rhody was dead last in NCAA 3 FG % last year.  They fix that issue and they will be tough.

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/17721

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HoosierPal, I  know you are reading the 144 list because it is there and it does provide some information. However, do you think SLU will end the season at 143 (or begin the season at 143) as they said we ranked?

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